Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.     

Beach cusps as self-organized patterns

Computer simulations of flow and sediment transport in the swash zone on a beach demonstrate that a model that couples local flow acceleration and alongshore surface gradient is sufficient to produce uniformly spaced beach cusps. The characteristics of the simulated cusps and the conditions under which they form are in reasonable agreement with observations of natural cusps. The self-organization mechanism in the model is incompatible with an accepted model in which standing alongshore waves drive the regular pattern of erosion and deposition that gives rise to beach cusps. Because the models make similar predictions, it is concluded that currently available observational data are insufficient for discrimination between them.     

Constraints on the diameter and albedo of 2060 chiron

Asteroid 2060 Chiron is the largest known object exhibiting cometary activity. Radiometric observations made in 1983 from a ground-based telescope and the Infrared Astronomical Satellite are used to examine the limits on Chiron's diameter and albedo. It is argued that Chiron's surface temperature distribution at that time is best described by an "isothermal latitude" or "rapid-rotator" model. Consequently, Chiron has a maximum diameter of 372 kilometers and a minimum geometric albedo of 2.7%. This is much bigger and darker than previous estimates, and suggests that gravity may play a significant role in the evolution of gas and dust emissions. It is also found that for large obliquities, surface temperatures can vary dramatically on time scales of a decade, and that such geometry may play a critical role in explaining Chiron's observed photometric behavior since its discovery in 1977.     

Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the International Geophysical Year

Antarctic snowfall exhibits substantial variability over a range of time scales, with consequent impacts on global sea level and the mass balance of the ice sheets. To assess how snowfall has affected the thickness of the ice sheets in Antarctica and to provide an extended perspective, we derived a 50-year time series of snowfall accumulation over the continent by combining model simulations and observations primarily from ice cores. There has been no statistically significant change in snowfall since the 1950s, indicating that Antarctic precipitation is not mitigating global sea level rise as expected, despite recent winter warming of the overlying atmosphere.     

Stellar-mass black holes and ultraluminous x-ray sources

We review the likely population, observational properties, and broad implications of stellar-mass black holes and ultraluminous x-ray sources. We focus on the clear empirical rules connecting accretion and outflow that have been established for stellar-mass black holes in binary systems in the past decade and a half. These patterns of behavior are probably the keys that will allow us to understand black hole feedback on the largest scales over cosmological time scales.     

Large trench-parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones

We demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), whereas regions with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic. These observations suggest that, over time scales up to at least 1 million years, spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore-arc. The correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench-parellel variations in fore-arc topography, gravity, and seismogenic behavior.     

Geometry, topology, and universality of random surfaces

Previous simulations of a self-avoiding, closed random surface with restricted topology (without handles) on a three-dimensional lattice have shown that its behavior on long length scales is consistent with that of a branched-polymer. It is shown analytically that such a surface with an unrestricted number of handles has a qualitatively different geometry and therefore is in a different universality class. The effect of a net external pressure is to suppress the handles and collapse the surface into a branched polymer-like configuration. Topology is thus shown to be a key factor in determining the universality class of the system.     

Energy Conditions in the Epoch of Galaxy Formation

The energy conditions of Einsteinian gravity (classical general relativity) do not require one to fix a specific equation of state. In a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe where the equation of state for the cosmological fluid is uncertain, the energy conditions provide simple, model-independent, and robust bounds on the behavior of the density and look-back time as a function of red shift. Current observations suggest that the "strong energy condition" was violated sometime between the epoch of galaxy formation and the present. This implies that no possible combination of "normal" matter is capable of fitting the observational data.     

Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget

It is widely assumed that variations in Earth's radiative energy budget at large time and space scales are small. We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought. Results indicate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes in tropical mean cloudiness. The results of several current climate model simulations fail to predict this large observed variation in tropical energy budget. The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.     

地面自动气象站观测数据文件的质量控制

通过分析地面自动气象站观测数据文件A文件、分钟观测数据文件J文件中出现的缺测记录和疑误记录,并结合工作实际,提出了合理解决方法,最大限度地减少了观测数据文件中的缺测记录和疑误记录,保证了气象资料的完整性、连续性和准确性,从而实现地面气象观测资料的质量控制。     

Simulation of recent global temperature trends

Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s. This study shows that the most recent portion of the global temperature record (1970 to 1992) can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. In agreement with a diverse suite of controversial observational evidence from the past 40 years, the upward trend in simulated tropospheric temperatures is caused by an enhancement of the tropical hydrologic cycle driven by increasing tropical ocean temperatures. Although it is possible that the observed behavior is due to natural climate variability, there is disquieting similarity between these model results, observed climate trends in recent decades, and the early expressions of the climatic response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide in numerical simulations.     

Throwing light on dark energy

Supernova observations show that the expansion of the universe has been speeding up. This unexpected acceleration is ascribed to a dark energy that pervades space. Supernova data, combined with other observations, indicate that the universe is about 14 billion years old and is composed of about 30%matter and 70%dark energy. New observational programs can trace the history of cosmic expansion more precisely and over a larger span of time than has been done to date to learn whether the dark energy is a modern version of Einstein's cosmological constant or another form of dark energy that changes with time. Either conclusion is an enigma that points to gaps in our fundamental understanding of gravity.     

External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings

A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.     

Producing ultrastrong magnetic fields in neutron star mergers

We report an extremely rapid mechanism for magnetic field amplification during the merger of a binary neutron star system. This has implications for the production of the short class of gamma-ray bursts, which recent observations suggest may originate in such mergers. In detailed magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the merger process, the fields are amplified by Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities beyond magnetar field strength and may therefore represent the strongest magnetic fields in the universe. The amplification occurs in the shear layer that forms between the neutron stars and on a time scale of only 1 millisecond, that is, long before the remnant can collapse into a black hole.     

Gone with the wind: the origin of S0 galaxies in clusters

We present three-dimensional, high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between the hot ionized intracluster medium and the cold interstellar medium of spiral galaxies. Ram pressure and turbulent/viscous stripping remove 100% of the atomic hydrogen content of luminous galaxies like the Milky Way within 100 million years. These mechanisms naturally account for the morphology of S0 galaxies and the rapid truncation of star formation implied by spectroscopic observations, as well as a host of observational data on the neutral hydrogen (HI) morphology of galaxies in clusters.     

Human Influence on the Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Structure: Detection and Observations

Recent work suggests a discernible human influence on climate. This finding is supported, with less restrictive assumptions than those used in earlier studies, by a 1961 through 1995 data set of radiosonde observations and by ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced with changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric ozone. On balance, agreement between the simulations and observations is best for a combination of greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone forcing. The uncertainties remaining are due to imperfect knowledge of radiative forcing, natural climate variability, and errors in observations and model response.     

Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic

The pattern of recent surface warming observed in the Arctic exhibits both polar amplification and a strong relation with trends in the Arctic Oscillation mode of atmospheric circulation. Paleoclimate analyses indicate that Arctic surface temperatures were higher during the 20th century than during the preceding few centuries and that polar amplification is a common feature of the past. Paleoclimate evidence for Holocene variations in the Arctic Oscillation is mixed. Current understanding of physical mechanisms controlling atmospheric dynamics suggests that anthropogenic influences could have forced the recent trend in the Arctic Oscillation, but simulations with global climate models do not agree. In most simulations, the trend in the Arctic Oscillation is much weaker than observed. In addition, the simulated warming tends to be largest in autumn over the Arctic Ocean, whereas observed warming appears to be largest in winter and spring over the continents.     

Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America

The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Ocean and North America is investigated by the analysis of data from a multidecadal integration with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one-third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low-pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales.     

Anthropogenic influence on the autocorrelation structure of hemispheric-mean temperatures

It is shown that lagged correlations for and cross-correlations between observed hemispheric-mean temperature data differ markedly from those for unforced (control-run) climate model simulations. The differences can be explained adequately by assuming that the observed data contain a significant externally forced component involving both natural (solar) and anthropogenic influences and that the global climate sensitivity is in the commonly accepted range. Solar forcing alone cannot reconcile the differences in autocorrelation structure between observations and model control-run data.     

Robotic observations of dust storm enhancement of carbon biomass in the North Pacific

Two autonomous robotic profiling floats deployed in the subarctic North Pacific on 10 April 2001 provided direct records of carbon biomass variability from surface to 1000 meters below surface at daily and diurnal time scales. Eight months of real-time data documented the marine biological response to natural events, including hydrographic changes, multiple storms, and the April 2001 dust event. High-frequency observations of upper ocean particulate organic carbon variability show a near doubling of biomass in the mixed layer over a 2-week period after the passage of a cloud of Gobi desert dust. The temporal evolution of particulate organic carbon enhancement and an increase in chlorophyll use efficiency after the dust storm suggest a biotic response to a natural iron fertilization by the dust.