新冠肺炎疫情下进口限制措施对农业贸易的影响与思考

新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行给世界经济贸易的发展带来强烈冲击。然而部分国家借疫情之名,实施保护主义,阻碍了全球农产品的正常流通。本文通过全面梳理和分析疫情期间全球农产品进口限制措施,发现一些国家为应对疫情冲击和保护本国农业生产所采取的部分进口限制措施,并不符合《非关税措施的国际分类》《关税贸易总协定》(GATT)和《实施动植物卫生和检疫措施协定》(《SPS协定》)中相关条例,具有较强的贸易保护主义色彩,其合理性有待进一步商榷。根据以往经验,贸易保护主义不可能从根本上解决此次由于疫情引起的全球危机,反而会加剧全球农业经济和贸易的萎缩。受进口限制措施的影响,中国农产品贸易也呈现出大幅下滑态势。鉴于新冠肺炎疫情的常态化发展,加之逆全球化声浪的不断提高,各国应加强合作,在满足合理诉求的情况下,对农产品贸易采取限制程度最低的措施,保障全球农产品贸易畅通。     

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production and countermeasures from an agricultural insurance perspective

In the face of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it is essential to stabilize the security of urban “shopping baskets”. Through a survey and interviews with 46 agricultural cooperatives in Shanghai, this paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and offers suggestions on agricultural insurance. The research results show that: (1) the pandemic has impacted almost all stages of the vegetable supply chain but has had a greater impact on the sales stage; (2) the market risks of vegetable production have increased significantly, and the gap between the field price and the market price has widened. The sales price difference between traditional channels and e-commerce is notable; (3) farmers' incomes have generally declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and traditional small-scale farmers have suffered more losses; and (4) agricultural insurance plays an important role in stabilizing the supply of vegetables to the city. To minimize the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and to stabilize both urban “shopping baskets” and farmers' incomes, it is necessary to further improve agricultural insurance, especially to provide insurance against market risks.     

突发事件下欧盟农业生产和贸易:发展、应对与启示

2020年以来,新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突、极端天气等突发事件对欧盟农业生产和农产品贸易造成了冲击。欧盟面临着农产品生产成本的上升和产量的下降,以及主要农产品出口量的减少。为应对突发事件对农产品生产和贸易带来的影响,欧盟出台了一系列农业支持政策,通过直接支付等财政政策、优惠贷款等金融工具及国家临时援助计划,确保农业市场的稳定性和可持续发展。援助政策在短期内关注市场稳定性,长期来看,保障了农业韧性和可持续性,一定程度上缓解了欧盟农业企业的经营压力,减少了农民的经济损失,实施效果明显。我国应借鉴欧盟的危机应对经验,促进农业投入品多元化,确保供应链弹性,加强农业研发,注重农业发展模式转型。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情下粮食保障应对策略分析与建议

在新型冠状病毒肺炎（简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情背景下,全球的粮食保障面临前所未有的挑战。为掌握全球粮食状况,保障我国粮食安全,分析了全球和中国的粮食供应情况,并提出了粮食保障应对策略。通过分析发现,疫情之下全球粮食生产预期总体平稳,具有较强地抗冲击能力,中国的主粮供给有保障,但大豆等进口商品受到一定的影响。由于各国形势差异,不同国家采取了多种措施保障本国粮食供应,例如增加财政和政策支持、加大粮食库存、建立绿色通道、限制粮食出口、减免进口关税、进行价格管制等。在此基础上,建议通过破解供应瓶颈来稳定粮食生产、通过加强调控力度来稳定粮食价格、通过有效引导市场来稳定社会预期,以保障我国的粮食安全和粮食供应链的稳定运行。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国粮食产业的影响分析

新型冠状病毒肺炎（以下简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情对我国粮食生产和人民生活造成了不同程度的影响。为推动粮食生产有序开展，保障粮食安全，分析了新冠肺炎疫情对我国粮食产业发展的影响。分析发现，疫情之下农业用工难、农资供应紧张、传统的技术下乡服务停滞、跨区耕作受阻，加之今年病虫害呈重发态势，国际形势也更加复杂多变，稳定粮食生产的压力和挑战加大。建议将粮食安全当成“头等大事”来抓，支持春耕生产和双季稻面积恢复，保障重要物资运输通道畅通，开展多形式农业科技服务，健全国内、国外两个市场预警机制，构建新型粮食生产支持体系，进一步保障我国粮食安全生产。     

Vegetable production under COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis based on the data of 526 households

The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous impact on the vegetable supply chain in China. Effective evaluation of the pandemic's influences on vegetable production is vital for policy settings to enhance the security of vegetable supply. Based on first-hand data from 526 households, we explored regional differences in different types of loss and potential factors affecting the severity farmer households suffered during the pandemic. The results underline that sales contraction and price volatility in the context of interruption of supply chain dominate the total losses during the pandemic. Such losses differ across provinces and are more substantial in provinces with stricter confinement measures. Farmer households' participation in local market and modern marketing methods helps mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19 shock, while labor hiring and facilities adoption in production widen the losses due to the shortage in the workforce. In the future, the vegetable industry practitioners and relevant government departments should work together to coordinate the development of short and long supply chains and strengthen the stability and security of the vegetable supply chain.     

The short- and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on family farms in China – Evidence from a survey of 2 324 farms

Family farms are considered the most desirable form of Chinese agriculture. Studies on the risk management of family farms are rare, while the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore how family farms respond to risks. Based on an online survey of 2 324 family crop farms, we examine for the first time the short-term impact (immediate impact or short-term fluctuation, and farms' instantaneous response) and long-term impact (on farms' future or long-term production) of the COVID-19 pandemic on family farms' production and operation in rural China. By using factor analysis and dummy variable regression, we find that the severity of the pandemic, the lockdown of the village, and farmers' knowledge of the pandemic contribute significantly to the short-term impact, but not on the long-term impact. Farmers' characteristics such as gender, age, and education are not related to the short-term impact, but family farms with male owners or owners with high school education or below are more likely to be diversified and large-scale. The number of years the farm has existed for and agricultural insurance affect both short-term and long-term impacts. We suggest that the government needs to pay more attention to stability-enhancing policies, the market environment, vocational training and the agricultural insurance market.     

新冠肺炎疫情对北京市农业的影响及发展建议

2020年开年之初，新冠肺炎病毒肆虐中国大地。此次疫情对我国各地区各行业影响巨大，对北京市农业也带来了严重的影响。北京市农业主要产值由种植业、养殖业、休闲观光农业构成。受疫情影响，农产品运输成本增加，养殖业长期供给紧张，休闲观光农业面临游客出游意愿锐减等困难与问题。未来北京市应在资金、技术、政策方面帮扶农业企业，如采取减税等政策帮扶受损农企，搭建智慧农业平台，拓展线上销售市场，加强农业技术指导，制定旅游业重振计划等。     

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dairy industry: Lessons from China and the United States and policy implications

The purposes of this study are to assess the COVID-19 pandemic's impacts on the dairy industries in China and the United States and to derive policy recommendations for enhancing the diary industries' resilience to pandemics and other market shocks. Specifically, data from the two nations are used to analyze and compare the mechanisms through which the pandemic has affected their dairy industries and to discuss potential lessons from their experiences. The findings suggest that this pandemic has heavily affected the dairy industries in both China and the United States through similar mechanisms, such as decreased farmgate milk prices, disruption and difficulties of moving milk within the supply chains, worker shortages, increased production costs, and lack of operating capital. There were also significant differences in the affecting mechanisms between the two nations, including transportation difficulties from widespread road closures and significant reduction in holiday sales of dairy products in China, and the shutdown of many dairy processors in the United States due to the closing of schools, restaurants, and hotels. While government financial reliefs are highly needed to help many dairy farms and processors survive this pandemic in the short term, the dairy industries and governments need to work together to develop long-term strategies and policies to balance the industries' efficiency and flexibility, product specialization and diversification, supply chain integration and local food systems, and market mechanisms and policy regulations and interventions.     

2020年国内外天然橡胶产业形势和2021年展望

2020年我国天然橡胶生产受白粉病、台风和冬季低温影响,而国外天然橡胶生产受新冠肺炎疫情、落叶病和台风影响,我国及全球天然橡胶产量分别下降14.9%和6.9%。疫情导致全球天然橡胶出口减少2.9%,消费下降6.9%,而我国的天然橡胶进口量同比增加13.7%,消费量与2019年相当。国内外天然橡胶价格年平均值未出现类似2008年世界金融危机期间的大幅度下跌,国内市场全乳标准胶年平均价格每吨1.16万元,比上年上升2.19%;国际市场年平均价格每吨1327美元,下降6.35%。展望2021年,国内外天然橡胶产业仍然处于供应大于需求阶段,新冠疫情影响仍将继续,我国天然橡胶消费增长可能放慢,而全球宽松货币和汽车产销将有利天然橡胶价格提升。     

Pig farmers' willingness to recover their production under COVID-19 pandemic shock in China – Empirical evidence from a farm survey

Pig farmers' willingness to recover production under the COVID-19 pandemic shock is significant to recover live pigs' supply in China in 2020. Increasing farmers' willingness to recover pig production contributes to enhance pig supply, stabilize the pig and pork market, and to improve pig farmers' income. This research studies the determinants of pig farmers' willingness to recover production under COVID-19 pandemic shock by applying survey data of 201 farmers in Huai'an City and Lin'an City and a logit regression model. The estimation results show that a farmer's risk perception, the duration time of a farmer's feed supply under COVID-19 pandemic shock, whether or not being a cooperative member, and a farmer's knowledge on government's policy designed to encourage pig production, a farmer's education level and production experience are the key determinants to a farmer's willingness to recover pig production. Thus, it's important for policymakers to solve the problems for farmers to get access to feed during the pandemic, to encourage the development of cooperatives, as well as to issue and advocate policies to encourage pig production. The study contributes to the scant literature by providing fresh empirical evidences on determinants of farmers' willingness to recover pig production. It has significance to farmers and governments to enhance farmers' willingness to recover production, which contributes to secure pig supply in China after the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Poverty reduction through the development of inclusive food value chains

Propelled by urbanization, rising incomes, and changing diets, food markets have been expanding in Africa and South Asia, creating the vast potential for job and income opportunities along food supply chains and, hence, for poverty reduction. The novel coronavirus(COVID-19) that spread to a pandemic in early 2020 provokes enormous setbacks to this expansion. This, however, should provide lessons regarding the importance of resilient and inclusive food systems. Emergency responses to COVID-19 should consider interventions towards that end and leverage the opportunities provided by food markets growth as economies recover from the present economic recession. This paper assesses options of how this could be done by facilitating the better functioning and interconnectedness of the many small and medium-sized enterprises that are proliferating along the "hidden middle" of food value chains in storage, logistics, transportation, and wholesale and retail distribution. It also explores how policies can help smallholder farmers connect to this "hidden middle" in more gainful ways and help them climb out of poverty as well.     

后疫情时代粮食安全现状、问题和对策

为探究后疫情时代我国粮食市场受国际联动效应的影响,切实保障疫情常态化下我国的粮食安全,从粮食供应角度,对疫情爆发以来的粮食安全现状进行了回顾,并对新时期粮食安全存在的问题展开分析,通过借鉴主要国家粮食安全的战略举措,提出保障我国粮食安全的政策措施和策略建议。结果表明:1)总体上,我国粮食安全发展是有保障的,但要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的潜在风险和挑战。2)针对全球疫情大流行的发展态势和我国粮食安全的现存问题,建议从监测预警、稳产保供、提质增效、加强国际政策协调、畅通全球供应渠道五方面综合施策。     

2012年中国农产品贸易形势分析及2013年趋势展望

在世界经济低迷、全球主要农产品供给相对宽松,国内需求不断增长以及政策调控等因素的综合作用下,2012年中国粮棉油糖等大宗农产品进口量激增,全面净进口态势得到强化;果蔬水产等优势农产品出口增长乏力,部分产品甚至出现明显下滑;农产品贸易逆差大幅增加。综合考虑国内外经济走势、农产品供求状况等因素,预计未来粮棉油糖等大宗农产品全面净进口局面将持续,但进口激增态势将得到缓解,农产品出口形势将有所好转。针对新形势、新问题,必须加强对农产品贸易形势的研究和判断,及时采取对策措施,努力确保中国农产品贸易和农业产业平稳健康发展。     

需求突变下面向多零售商的农产品供应链应急策略

农产品供应链管理的首要任务是满足市场需求并保障农产品流通过程的稳定,但无法预测的突发事件会破坏农产品供应链系统的协调,并带来损失,这需要采取必要的措施进行应急管理。根据农产品的特性,以下游需求在短期内发生突变为背景,研究由单个供应商和多个零售商构成的农产品供应链系统,通过推导说明,线性数量折扣机制和非线性数量折扣机制作为2种不同的应急措施是可以实现供应链协调的,且非线性数量折扣机制能保证供应链获得更高的收益。     

2014年上半年中国农产品贸易发展特点及展望

2014年上半年中国农产品贸易总额保持增长,进口增长明显快于出口。进口方面,进口额继续保持增长,增速明显加快,国内外价差和国内供需缺口仍是大宗农产品进口持续高位的主要原因。出口方面,蔬菜和水产品出口均有增加,水果出口下降。未来中国农产品进口压力仍将继续加大,进口额增长可能保持两位数的增速;出口形势有望好转,但增速相对缓慢;在进口增速较快和基数较大的前提下,农产品贸易逆差将进一步扩大。     

2012年中国农产品贸易形势分析与2013年展望

2012年1—10月,中国农产品进口额和出口额分别为922．5亿美元和506．2亿美元,同比分别增长23．7％和4．5％。进出口增势减缓,出口呈低速增长,进口仍保持快速增长势头。主要出口市场明显萎缩,多数农产品出口量减价升,粮食、食糖和棉花进口量激增。展望2013年,受世界经济低速增长、贸易保护主义加剧等因素影响,中国农产品出口仍面临很大挑战。在国际粮价飙升的传导作用下,大宗农产品价格高位波动,国内部分农产品供求形势向好．进口快速增长势头将受到抑制。     

China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientific work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as well as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamically project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The following conclusions are drawn: i) The production of major agricultural products will continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. ii) The growth of agricultural consumption will be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufficiency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. iii) Agricultural trade will continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk imports will slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.