Homeokinetics: a physical science for complex systems

A physical basis for reductionism is put forth in the form of five propositions that bridge levels of organization in natural phenomena. The outlook is that complex systems and processes all have to be traced back to physical law, which applies the only general scientific constraint on reality, but that out of physical law a hierarchy of organization emerges. The basic extension of normal physics in this homeokinetic field form is to complex systems. In such systems the repetitive units of concern are internally complex and exhibit elaborate internal time-delayed processes, for example, memory.     

Agent-based simulation framework for virtual prototyping of advanced livestock precision feeding systems

On-farm implementation of the concept of precision livestock farming requires the design and development of new, advanced and often complex equipment. This article proposes an agent-based simulation framework to meet the challenges of designing, testing and evaluating the performance of the new, automated precision feeding equipment for farms. In this context, an agent is a piece of software performing defined system functions such as exchanging information or requesting services to other agents via a high-level agent communication language. The proposed approach sees each main component of the actual precision feeding system represented by a virtual domain agent. The agents are then assembled within a multi-agent system that models the automatic precision feeding equipment as a whole. The operational capacity of the virtual prototype is achieved through communication and collaboration between the multiple agents that make up the system. The capacity for dynamic modification of parameters such as workload during the simulation process helps analyze the behavior, robustness and performance of the system prior to its actual use and thus providing a computer-aid tool helping in the design process. One case study shows that agent-based composable simulation can predict the behavior and performance of the system as a whole.     

Model-driven engineering of RNA devices to quantitatively program gene expression

The models and simulation tools available to design functionally complex synthetic biological devices are very limited. We formulated a design-driven approach that used mechanistic modeling and kinetic RNA folding simulations to engineer RNA-regulated genetic devices that control gene expression. Ribozyme and metabolite-controlled, aptazyme-regulated expression devices with quantitatively predictable functions were assembled from components characterized in vitro, in vivo, and in silico. The models and design strategy were verified by constructing 28 Escherichia coli expression devices that gave excellent quantitative agreement between the predicted and measured gene expression levels (r = 0.94). These technologies were applied to engineer RNA-regulated controls in metabolic pathways. More broadly, we provide a framework for studying RNA functions and illustrate the potential for the use of biochemical and biophysical modeling to develop biological design methods.     

Agent农业土地变化模型研究进展

农业土地变化是全球变化与可持续研究的热点,当前研究虽取得了长足进展,但仍存在诸多不足,集中表现在对农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的认识不够.近年来,基于Agent的农业土地变化研究(农业ABM/LUCC,Agent-based agricultural land change modeling)逐渐兴起,极大的丰富了传统研究的理论与方法,具体表现在:(1)农业ABM/LUCC将微观层面的人类个体行为整合进土地变化研究框架,有助于更加清楚的认识农业土地系统的“人类-自然”综合复杂性问题.(2)农业ABM/LUCC能够动态表达土地系统变化的内生反馈机制,有助于弥补传统的静态土地变化驱动机制分析的不足.(3)基于ABM/LUCC的农业土地利用格局动态研究是整合“人类-自然”综合研究的关键桥梁,农业ABM/LUCC能够与其他生物地球物理模型或经济模型动态嵌套,使多尺度、多维度综合模型研究成为可能.然而,农业ABM/LUCC研究也存在诸多挑战,如理论研究滞后于应用研究,大尺度应用难以开展,以及农户行为的模拟结果很难得到校验等.     

基于构件化生长模型的作物管理决策支持系统

运用系统分析原理和数学建模技术,通过分析不同作物生长模型的共性及特点,初步创建了基于通用算法框架的作物生长模型。并进一步结合气象生成模型、品种参数生成模型及策略分析评价模型,以C#为编程语言,应用面向对象的程序设计与软构件技术,建立了基于构件化生长模型的作物管理决策支持系统。系统实现了农作模拟预测、决策支持和人机交互技术的有机耦合,具有农作信息管理、动态模拟、方案评估、因苗预测、时空分析及系统维护等功能。系统的建立可为通用性、综合性数字化作物管理决策支持系统的构建奠定基础。     

成都万达广场城市综合体空间形态解析

分析了成都万达广场这一城市综合体整体空间的形态,将其划分为包括区域外部的广场空间、区域内部商业建筑空间及其与外部空间的联系几方面,从空间的形态构成、组织手法、内涵3方面,阐述此类城市综合体整体空间的特点及其所包含的各空间的相互关系,认为应将其看作动态变化的、相互影响的建筑复合体,兼具外部空间的吸引力和内部空间的凝聚力,希望借此明确影响区域空间形态的组织手法以及其在实践中的意义。     

Linking models for assessing agricultural land use change

The ex-ante assessment of the likely impacts of policy changes and technological innovations on agriculture can provide insight into policy effects on land use and other resources and inform discussion on the desirability of such changes. Integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) is an approach that can be used for ex-ante assessment. It may combine several quantitative models representing different processes and scales into a framework for integrated assessment to allow for multi scale analysis of environmental, economic and social issues. IAM is a challenging task as models from different disciplines have a different representation of data, space and time. The aim of this paper is to describe our strategy to conceptually, semantically and technically integrate a chain of models from different domains to assess land use changes. The models that were linked are based on different modeling techniques (e.g. optimization, simulation, estimation) and operate on different time and spatial scales. The conceptual integration to ensure consistent linkage of simulated processes and scales required modelers representing the different models to clarify the data exchanged and interlinking of modeling methodologies across scales. For semantic integration, ontologies provided a way to rigorously define conceptualizations that can be easily shared between various disciplines. Finally, for technical integration, OpenMI was used and supplemented with the information from ontologies. In our case, explicitly tackling the challenge of semantic, conceptual and technical integration of models forced researchers to clarify the assumptions of their model interfaces, which helped to document the model linkage and to efficiently run models together. The linked models can now easily be used for integrated assessments of policy changes, technological innovations and societal and biophysical changes.     

供应链系统演化中的创新驱动分析

依据复杂自适应系统理论,采用自下而上研究思路,将供应链主体行为与宏观系统特征涌现结合起来.将供应链分为创新型与模仿型,进行主体行为建模;运用遗传算法模拟主体演化进程,并在SWARM平台进行仿真,仿真结果凸显创新在供应链演化中的重要作用,证实个体简单自主行为能够导致系统复杂宏观特征涌现的复杂自适应系统基本原理.     

土地利用－作物生产系统模拟研究进展

对土地利用一作物生产系统模拟研究方面的国内外最新进展进行了综述。主要讨论了近20年来人们对土地利用一作物生产系统的系统性，层次性与动态性的认识，国内外已建立的模型及其评述，本领域研究的最新特点，最后对这一领域的研究进行了展望并对我国在这方面的研究策略提出了见解。     

The Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS): An open-source spatially explicit model to assess the impact of agricultural policies

Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS) is an open-source spatially explicit multi-agent model framework specifically designed for long-term simulations of the effects of policies on agricultural systems. Using iterated conventional optimisation problems as agents’ behavioural rules, it allows for a bidirectional integration between geophysical and social models where spatially distributed characteristics are taken into account in the programming problem of the optimising agents. With RegMAS it is possible to simulate the local specific response to a given policy (or scenario), where policies, together with macro- and regional characteristics, are read into the program in specially formatted spreadsheets and standard GIS files.The paper presents the model logic and structure and describes its functioning by applying it to a case-study, where RegMAS results are compared with conventional agent-based modelling to demonstrate the advantages of spatial explicitness. The simulation refers to the impact of the recent “Health Check” of the CAP on farm structures, income and land use in a hilly area of a central Italian region (Marche).     

基于智能体的农产品市场智能协同监管体系研究

由于农产品期货市场和现货市场对农产品的价格有重大影响,如何建立两个市场的协同监管体系,以确保农产品市场的稳定有序,防止价格操作。为了解决这一问题,引入智能体（IntelligentAgent）及相应的机制,分别在强制约束模式下和混合模式下,建立了基于智能体的农产品市场智能协同监管体系的两种模型,并进行比较,选择在较优的混合模式下进行了案例分析。     

作物模拟与QTL定位的互补作用及其应用

 作物模型正日益用于设计不同环境中的理想株型育种。DNA分子标记可把复杂的数量性状分解成若干个数量性状位点（quantitative trait loci,QTL）的效应,并将QTL转入到栽培品系中去。作物模拟与QTL定位相结合,QTL将去除若干所测定模型输入参数的随机误差。这种基于QTL效应的作物模型,将弥补常规模型忽视其输入性状遗传效应的缺点,并能更准确地预测遗传群体中各个体间的产量差异。另一方面,作物模型能成为解释"基因型与环境互作"的有力工具,也将弥补QTL定位不能将一个环境条件试验分析结果外推到另一环境条件。基于上述分析,提出了一个将标记辅助育种与以模型为基础的理想株型育种的综合方法。     

2019-12ml 目录

林业遥感经历了航片判读、卫片目视解译、蓄积量定量估测阶段后,已经进入参数定量反演阶段。在林业对遥感业务化监测和精度提升的强烈需求下,定量遥感逐步与林业遥感交叉融合,林业遥感定量化研究的人才队伍、理论模型、数据源和应用方法逐渐成熟。本文提出了林业定量遥感的概念和框架,指出了其中关键的科学问题:（1）如何使遥感解译、建模和反演适应复杂的森林状况;（2）如何提高参数反演的准确度;（3）如何丰富林业遥感数据源;（3）如何发展更为智能化的遥感数据自动化算法。在介绍适合林业的定量遥感模型和通用反演方法的基础上,阐述了高光谱、热红外、激光雷达和微波遥感数据源的林业应用方法。未来林业定量遥感将在全波段数据统一建模和信息融合机制、机理模型反演、大数据融合等方面进行突破。      

Territorial strategies in ants

Several features in social insects, particularly in ants, make the behavioral organization of territoriality considerably more complex than that of solitary animals. The establishment and maintenance of territories are based on a division of labor and a complex communication system. The analyses of territorial strategies in ants comprise the study of the design and spatiotemporal structure of the territory, as well as the social mechanisms through which the insect society pursues its territorial strategy. The geometric and behavioral organization of the absolute territories of the African weaver ants (Oecophylla longinoda) and harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex), and of the "spatiotemporal territories" of honey ants (Myrmecocystus mimicus) are described, and simple cost-benefit models are developed to illustrate the economic defensibility of each type of territory.     

科技成果转化模式初探以中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所为例

促进科技成果转化工作是实施创新驱动发展战略的重要任务，是加强科技与经济紧密结合的关键环节。文章概述了中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所科技成果转化概况以及成果转化模式的探索，并提出了科学谋划顶层设计、构建成果转化制度体系、强化智库建设、推进以市场需求为导向的成果转化平台建设等促进科技成果转化的对策建议。     

基于生长元模型的智能化作物集成建模辅助系统研究

 【目的】探索智能化作物集成建模方法和开发实用辅助建模工具。【方法】在综合分析麦、稻、棉等作物的生长模拟模型算法及模拟系统的基础上,提炼作物通用建模流程、模型结构、模型接口和模型模板,构建作物生长元模型;在模型资源库、组件、描述脚本和引擎等技术的支撑下,设计层次化、组件化和智能化作物集成建模辅助系统（IICMSS）结构及核心部件。【结果】基于.Net平台,使用C#语言和SQL Server数据库开发原型系统;以小麦为对象,重构了生长模型和模拟系统。与基于代码编程的小麦生长模拟系统相比,开发方法有所改进,方便了作物模型及模拟系统的开发、测试、维护和共享。【结论】基于生长元模型的智能化作物集成建模辅助系统实现了作物建模的工作流程化、手段工业化、接口通用化及模型透明化,促进了作物建模过程的自动化;作物模型研究者使用学习、定制、设计、配置、组装、评估和扩展等手段,即可无编程、智能化地构建作物模型。     

基于个体植物生长模型的森林动态演替模拟

森林动态演替过程的计算模拟历来是森林生态学中的一个重要问题。不同于传统宏观式的模拟思路,本文提出了一种基于个体植物生长模型、自下而上的模拟方法。首先构建了参数化的个体植物生长模型,模型中考虑了植物内部属性、外部环境、邻域竞争3种对植物生长有影响的因素,综合模拟出植物在不同环境状况下的生长变化情况。在此基础上,对构成一片森林的大量植物个体进行遍历式、迭代化的计算,从而模拟出整片森林区域的生长演替现象。实验结果表明,本文方法可以模拟出植被在复杂外部环境影响下的动态变化效果,可表现出自然稀疏、物种竞争、物种演替等多种典型的植被演替现象。      

Complexity in natural landform patterns

Patterns in nature, such as meandering rivers and sand dunes, display complex behavior seemingly at odds with their simplicity of form. Existing approaches to modeling natural landform patterns, reductionism and universality, are incompatible with the nonlinear, open nature of natural systems. An alternative modeling methodology based on the tendency of natural systems to self-organize in temporal hierarchies is described.