Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

Advance of Management Performance Evaluation in Petrochemical Engineering Construction Project

Toward the characteristics of petrochemical engineering construction project and the need of project management performance evaluation, this paper analyzed the status of project management performance evaluation study and the status of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project. This paper suggested the direction of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project, which is to establish the performance evaluation index system of petrochemical engineering construction project management and performance evaluation method, to establish process performance evaluation system of petrochemical engineering construction project management, to develop performance evaluation software of petrochemical engineering construction project management.     

Application of Risk Analysis to the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

Every sort of financial indexes of the construction project is a value occurred in future. It has a random character, so the estimation of these indexes in early stage is surely a matter of risk. In practice, the investors often choose a construction project only by simple estimation rather by deep financial evaluation and risk analysis. In this paper, taking the project NPV as an example and applying risk analysis to its estimation, the authors develop a totally new economic evaluation method for construction projects.     

Post_evaluation of Urban Road ConstructionProject Financed by the World Bank

With reference to the characteristics of urban road under the World Bank's loan construction project,this paper proposes the contents of post_evaluation of urban road project and gives its process evaluation,national economy evaluation,influence evaluation and sustainability evaluation.Based on the theoretical principles,a project post_evaluation of inner_ring road in T city was conducted.     

基于项目成功度评价方法的世行贷款农业科技 项目绩效评价研究

项目绩效评价是在项目已经完成并运行一段时间后,对项目的效果、效益和影响进行系统的、客观的分析和总结的一种技术经济活动。文章利用成功度评价方法,构建了成功度评价的基本模型,对利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目评价指标进行等级评定。同时运用层次分析法对各项指标进行层次分析,计算出各指标的权重值,得出利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目的总体绩效评价结果。利用成功度评价方法便于客观、科学地评价项目区实施的效益、总结经验和教训,为利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目乃至农业综合开发项目的决策、建设、管理等提供参考。     

基于高标准农田建设的耕地地力评定——以石门县新增粮食生产能力田间工程建设项目为例

[目的]以湖南省石门县新增粮食生产能力田间工程建设项目为例，对项目区建设前和建设后的耕地地力进行综合评定，[方法]选取地形部位、排水能力、灌溉能力、障碍因素、剖面构型、耕层厚度、耕层质地、有机质、有效磷、缓效钾共10个评定因子构建耕地地力评定指标体系和层次模型，采用层次分析法和特尔斐法确定评定因子隶属度和综合权重，运用指数法计算项目区建设前、后的耕地地力指数及其变化值，[结果]确定耕地地力等级，测算出耕地综合生产能力提升量为1860 kg/ (hm2?a)，[结论]为高标准基本农田建设和耕地地力提升提供可行性建议。     

A Dynamic Grey Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Financing Risk in Freeway Project

There are many risks that influence freeway project financing and the influence of these risks differ by project stage. However, it is impossible to analyze the total risk of project financing objectively and accurately merely using the fuzzy or grey evaluation methods. These methods cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of financing risks during freeway project construction. A dynamically grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was established and used to evaluate the financing risks of a freeway project. The results indicate that this method can not only make full use of the rich experience of the experts, but also reduce the influence of subjective factors. In addition, this method can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the financing risks during freeway project construction. Investors therefore can pertinently prevent and control financing risks based on the results of the evaluation of financing risks in every stage of the project. A demonstration shows that the method is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of financing risks of infrastructure projects such as freeways.     

城乡统筹背景下农村集体建设用地复垦效益评价——以重庆市荣昌县为例

研究目的：对农村集体建设用地复垦效益评价进行内涵剖析,建立农村集体建设用地效益评价指标;研究方法：用多因素综合评价法建立农村集体建设用地复垦效益评价的指标体系、确定指标分值,用层次分析法确定指标权重;研究结果：（1）农村集体建设用地复垦效益评价可以从经济效益、社会效益和生态景观效益三方面进行分析;（2）通过对重庆市荣昌县1个街道、2个镇的农村集体建设用地复垦项目案例进行分析,结果表明,农村集体建设用地复垦项目产生了较好的经济效益,而社会、生态景观效益相对较弱;研究结论：建议建立农村集体建设用地复垦效益的标准化指标评价体系和效益评价的长效机制。     

草原生态保护补奖政策评价指标体系设计

草原生态保护补奖政策是新时期草原生态环境建设的重要内容和组成部分,是保障草原可持续发展的关键。建立科学、合理的草原生态保护补奖政策评价指标体系,是跟踪项目实施进度效果和及时优化项目实施内容的重要保证。本研究结合草原生态保护补奖政策实施内容,在分析评价指标体系目标及原则的基础上,构建草原生态保护补奖政策评价指标体系。研究结果为政府部门掌握此项评价指标体系,并开展绩效考核奖励提供了参考依据,同时也是跟踪项目实施进度效果并及时优化项目实施内容的重要保证。     

基于物元模型的农村居民点建设适宜度评价

农村居民点建设适宜度评价是高效利用农村土地资源的基础。为探讨物元模型在农村居民点建设适宜度评价中的应用,基于物元模型,按照相关项目相关标准,从自然条件、生活条件、生产条件等方面,选取了10个指标构成农村居民点建设适宜度评价的指标体系。在物元分析理论的基础上,构建了居民点适宜度评价的物元模型,并采用该模型对鄂州市汀祖镇居民点建设现状进行评价。研究结果表明：物元模型能够揭示单个评价指标的分异信息,适合用于鄂州市汀祖镇农村居民点建设适宜度评价。利用物元模型对农村居民点建设适宜度进行评价,将有助于集约节约利用土地,高效整合利用土地资源。     

Research on the System and Models of Society-Economy-Environment Appraisal for Construction Project

The society-economy-environment appraisal for construction project can help our government to control macro-economy, make correlation policy and formulate laws and draw up city plan.It has great influence on the sustainable development of our society and it is the demand of the law for the environment evaluation in China.This paper introduced the basic structure of society-economy-environment appraisal system for construction project and the thought of elements transaction.Using the method of AHP, the model of project analyzing and optimizing selection is designed.For the more, the methods of the optimizing models on the selected schemes are put forward.Finally, the integrative analysis has been made on the system design and appliance of this appraisal system.     

The Evaluation System of Agent of Government Investment Project Based on AFD

According to analyses of the existing problems in the evaluation of agent of government investment project, combining with the characters of the substituted construction system of the government invested project and the project management, a performance evaluation index system of the agent of government invested project was constructed, fdlowing the basic principles of the index settlement. It introduces the AHP, the fuzzy evaluation mode, and the ADF comprehensive evaluation mode based on DEA, and gives some practical examples.     

基于系统动力学的土地整理项目效益后评价

[目的]现如今以新增耕地为单一目标的土地整理工作难以再适应综合整治阶段的各项需求。为了进一步完善土地整理项目效益评价理论、内容和方法,以河北省沧州市马厂镇的土地整理项目为研究对象,[方法]应用系统动力学原理,基于Vensim 软件平台构建土地整理项目效益后评价系统动力学模型。[结果]研究表明：历史数据与仿真数据的相对误差控制在5%以内;研究区的粮食产值、人均收入、就业人数、公众满意度等指标在今后的十年内呈现稳步提升的趋势,但生物多样性和景观多样性在相当长一段时间内出现下降趋势。[结论]所构建的系统动力学模型在结构和功能上通过了有效性和稳定性的检验,能够有效预测各效益指标在今后中长期内的发展变化趋势。土地整理项目实施后,其经济效益和社会效益显著,生态环境得到一定的改善,但是不可避免地造成生物多样性和景观多样性下降。     

宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目绩效评价

本研究采用AHP（层次分析法）和多层次模糊综合评价法,构建土地整治项目绩效评价体系,并对其进行实证分析。笔者以宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目中的10个试点项目为例,结合项目区实际情况,从资金使用情况、项目执行情况、项目管理情况和项目建设情况4个维度进行评价,旨在为土地整治项目绩效评价提供新的思路与方法。结果表明：宁夏回族自治区土地整治项目绩效等级优良,占81%。建议从设立土地整治绩效评价机构,建立健全信息报备系统,建立电子绩效评价系统3方面入手,建立土地整治项目绩效评价的长效机制。     

基于模糊模型识别法的土地整理综合效益分析评价研究——以格尔木市为例

为了验证模糊模型识别法对土地整理项目进行综合效益评价的可行性,从社会、经济、生态3个方面构建土地整理综合评价指标体系,对格尔木市大格勒乡土地整理项目的评价指标量化,利用文献综述法建立模型识别库,根据模型库正态分布数据原理确定隶属函数,建立评价体系与综合效益等级关联度模型。结果表明：格尔木市大格勒乡项目属于“好”级别;乌图美仁乡与郭勒木德镇属于“一般”级别;造成以上级别差异的主要原因是权重较高的社会效益显著性过低,符合项目区实际情况。实例研究证明,基于模糊模型识别法建立的理论和方法在土地整理综合效益评价具有科学性和可操作性。     

土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估初探

构建土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估机制,对规范土地整治重大项目建设和土地整治相关管理具有重要的现实意义。本文立足重大项目的全生命周期管理要求,综合分析了土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险的内涵,提出了相应的风险评估过程,并采用PSR模型建立了风险评估体系。研究认为：（1）重大项目的社会稳定风险在项目的立项论证、建设实施和管护运营等阶段均能以不同形式存在,风险评估应根据项目各管理阶段的重点任务及特征,系统分析土地整治过程中可能存在的各类风险因素;（2）风险评估过程应包含风险调查、风险识别、风险评价及风险化解四个程序;（3）基于PSR模型的风险评估体系可反映出土地整治社会稳定风险的产生、传导、作用和控制过程,可为重大项目风险评估指标的选取提供逻辑框架。     

乡村旅游开发类型综合评价研究

为了评价和分析新乡市乡村旅游开发现状及影响因素,构建乡村旅游开发类型综合评价体系,权衡不同开发模式的利弊,根据新乡市乡村旅游的特点,将其开发类型归纳为五类：乡村风景型、红色旅游型、现代新农村型、农业资源型和自然风光型,运用层次分析法和模糊评判法,从基础设施建设、旅游资源开发、旅游经营管理等三个准则层对其进行综合评价。结果表明,自然风光型乡村旅游产业综合评价值最高,为0.82（最高为1.00）。自然风光型城乡环境建设、自然资源开发、景区投资环境、企业年终效益、游客满意程度方面表现突出,较之其他旅游类型,新乡市应优先发展自然风光型乡村旅游产业。在评价指标体系构建中,企业年终效益所占权重最大,为13.1%,成为衡量景区可持续发展的重要指标。笔者使用的综合评价计算方法简化了指标的量化,在权重的估算中去除了人为赋值的主观性,是一种新颖的综合评价计算方法。     

城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策实施后复垦农民满意度研究——基于渝东南少数民族地区扶贫乡镇的调研

城乡建设用地增减挂钩是国家优化城乡用地结构与开展扶贫攻坚的重要政策,复垦是该政策的重要环节,复垦农民满不满意是衡量该政策有效性的重要指标。本文通过对重庆市复垦阶段的政策与流程梳理,结合对渝东南少数民族地区扶贫乡镇的实地调研,构建了复垦农民满意度指标体系,采用模糊综合评价法对政策实施细则改变前后的满意度差异进行了分析和评价。研究结果表明,通过对政策进行调整后,复垦农民对“经济补偿”与“环境改善”的满意度有了较大提高,但在“政策宣导”、“复垦实施”、“政府服务”及“法律保障”等方面仍有改善的空间。最后从复垦农民满意度的角度出发,在补偿方式、权益保障等方面对增减挂钩政策提出了优化建议。     

Comprehensive Control Technique of Reliability in Large Construction Project Management

After analyzing the current researches with the three-major-goal management: quality,cost and time,on the construction project and aiming at the existing issues,this article puts forward a new method.This method identifies the reliability of every fundamental module(subsystem) suitably,which based on the current standards to analyze and classify the large construction procedure,and was constituted by the construction procedure.Also was considered the three-major-goal(quality,cost and time) of every module.Then the reliability of the large construction project was calculated,the qualified standards of reliability were evaluated,and the general and particular frame was optimized.Furthermore,it raises a new conception of the comprehensive control technique considering the reliability of the three-major-goal synthetically.This article explores a new way to ensure the three major unified goals: quality,cost and time,of the construction project management,and makes sure that the process of the construction project was in an ideal condition.     

高标准农田建设适宜性评价、效益评价及影响因素解析的研究方法综述

通过大量文献梳理,采用文献资料法、对比分析法、归纳总结法,重点围绕高标准农田建设背景与现状、建设适宜性评价、效益评价、影响因素解析4部分内容进行研究。对比分析当前研究中评价指标的设置方向以及研究方法在原理、优缺点及适用性等方面的差异性,最后进行整体总结与展望。结果表明,当前高标准农田建设工作已取得显著成效;在项目建设前的适宜性评价研究中,评价指标的设置更侧重于区域耕地的自然禀赋条件;在项目建设后的效益评价研究中,从早期注重经济效益评价逐渐发展为经济、社会、生态效益评价并重;在影响因素解析研究中,当前研究仍较为薄弱,对不同建设区域效益提升水平存在差异的解释仍较少。针对研究方法,未来研究应综合考量不同方法的优缺点及适用性。本研究能为科学推进高标准农田建设提供有益参考。