Spatial association as an indicator of the potential for future interactions between wind energy developments and golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos in Scotland

Despite their environmental benefits in generating electricity without emission of ‘greenhouse’ gases, wind farms have attracted controversy with regard to their impacts on birds, especially golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Evidence from USA studies suggest eagle fatalities through collision with turbines may be the main potential impact whereas for breeding eagles in Scotland, displacement from wind farm areas (indirect habitat loss) may be the primary impact. In this study, we examined the co-occurrence potential for golden eagles and wind farms in Scotland by documenting the spatial association between wind farm proposals and breeding eagle territories and areas potentially suitable for non-breeding eagles. Although there were records for over 500 wind farm proposals at various stages of development, relatively few coincided with eagle territories (ca. 4% of territories had a proposal within 3 km of territory centre). Similarly, only 2% of habitat predicted to be suitable for non-breeding eagles overlapped with proposed or installed wind farm areas. Moreover, estimates of the potential for electricity generation from all wind farm proposals, with respect to government targets for renewable energy supplies, suggested most proposals were unlikely to be constructed. We conclude that in comparison with other constraints on Scotland’s golden eagles, notably persecution, wind farms should not represent a serious concern if best practice in planning their location and minimising their impact are maintained. Potential future regional pressures on breeding eagles from wind farms are highlighted, however, and uncertainty of impact with respect to displacement or collision fatalities requires continued scrutiny.     

Where new farm woodlands support biodiversity action plans: a spatial multi-criteria analysis

In many developed countries forest cover is growing and the provision of non-market benefits is increasingly important for forestry management. The benefits provided by a new woodland not only depend on the design of the woodland (local site level), but also on its location in the wider landscape. This paper develops a generic GIS-based method to map the potential biodiversity benefits of new woodlands through an integration of species-habitat modelling for a list of 15 key species derived from a “Local Biodiversity Action Plan”, encompassing the Northeast of Scotland, and spatial multi-criteria analysis. For each selected species ‘Preferred Future Woodland’ maps are produced, indicating the extent to which populations of these species are expected to expand or contract in response to further afforestation. Species are then weighted on the basis of criteria of relative scarcity of suitable habitat and national importance of the regional population. The maps are then combined using this weighting to yield an overall potential biodiversity benefit map, which shows that the areas with the highest potential biodiversity gains are the edges of major agricultural areas (mostly deciduous), the riparian zones (deciduous) and areas adjacent to mature native pine woods (coniferous). It is demonstrated that the use of this map for more explicit spatial targeting of an existing farm afforestation scheme can help to provide much more ‘biodiversity value’ for taxpayers’ money.     

Avian community response to vegetation and structural features in grasslands managed with fire and grazing

This study examined the importance of natural and manmade structural features on the avian community relative to management-induced vegetation dynamics. The study was conducted within the context of two alternative vegetation management treatments applied to pastures on a tallgrass prairie site in northcentral Oklahoma from 2001 to 2003. The brown-headed cowbird, a brood parasite, and the grasshopper sparrow, a common grassland obligate species, were most abundant in areas managed under a traditional treatment in which entire pastures were annually burned. Conversely, Henslow’s sparrow, a grassland obligate of conservation concern, was completely absent from traditional treatment pastures. Total bird species diversity and grassland obligate richness was highest in the patch-burn treatment, in which only discrete portions of each pasture were burned each year to create a mosaic of vegetation ‘patches’ in various stages of recovery from disturbance. Models of bird abundance reflected not only species-specific vegetation preferences, but also the often negative influence of structural features such as woody edges, roads, and ponds on breeding bird use of grasslands. Our study demonstrated that both disturbance-derived vegetation attributes and structural features contribute to heterogeneity and influence subsequent use by and composition of grassland bird communities.     

Crofting and bumblebee conservation: The impact of land management practices on bumblebee populations in northwest Scotland

The northwest of Scotland is a stronghold for two of the UK’s rarest bumblebee species, Bombus distinguendus and Bombus muscorum. The predominant form of agricultural land management in this region is crofting, a system specific to Scotland in which small agricultural units (crofts) operate rotational cropping and grazing regimes. Crofting is considered to be beneficial to a wide range of flora and fauna. However, currently there is a lack of quantitative evidence to support this view with regard to bumblebee populations. In this study we assessed the effect of land management on the abundance of foraging bumblebees and the availability of bumblebee forage plants across crofts in northwest Scotland. The results of our study show that current crofting practices do not support high densities of foraging bumblebees. Traditional crofting practice was to move livestock to uplands in the summer, but this has been largely abandoned. Summer sheep grazing of lowland pasture had a strong negative impact on bumblebee abundance and forage plant availability throughout the survey period. The use of specific ‘bird and bee’ conservation seed mixes appears to improve forage availability within the crofted landscape, although the number of bees observed remained low. Of the forage plants available, the three most frequently visited species were from the Fabaceae. We therefore conclude that the creation of agri-environment schemes which promote the use of Fabaceae-rich seed mixes and encourage the removal of sheep grazing on lowland areas throughout the summer are essential in order to conserve bumblebee populations within crofted areas.     

Birds of different biogeographic origins respond in contrasting ways to urbanization

Impacts of urbanization on ecological systems are expected to increase during the 21st century, and identifying which species may not survive under urban constraints is of practical importance to conservation biology. I study whether a species’ biogeographic origin might be a useful predictor of vulnerability to urban pressures, and if this depends on the geographic scale of the study. By means of multivariate ordination analyses and computer intensive, Monte Carlo simulation techniques, I study the patterns of zoogeographical affinity (a proxy for biogeographic origin) of passerine birds living in 14 non-urban (NU) and 11 urban (U) sites throughout Mexico, a biodiversity rich and urbanizing country between the Nearctic and Neotropical Regions; at a regional scale, I also study differences between NU and U sites in the state of Puebla, in the ‘Temperate Sierras’ ecoregion. Differences in zoogeographical affinities between NU and U sites were statistically significant, and were mainly caused by changes in the number of neotropical and nearctic species. In terms of the ‘equivalent number of zoogeographical classes’, a useful measure of zoogeographical diversity, bird assemblages in urban settings were less diverse than those simulated by random drawings from the corresponding species pools. In fact, urbanization seems to be provoking the selective removal of neotropical and endemic species from urban assemblages, whereas at the same time retaining more-than-expected nearctic (temperate) species; birds with nearctic affinities could be successful candidates to ‘urban exploiters’ in the study case. At a landscape scale, results suggest that urbanization is creating holes in the geographic range of both neotropical passerines and birds endemic to Mexico, which are selectively removed by the urban filter, and can be identified as those more heavily threatened by urbanization if proactive strategies to conserve biodiversity in urban ecosystems are not implemented. Among other reasons for the observed patterns, the tropical niche conservatism is invoked as an explanation.     

Importance of cryptic species for identifying ‘representative’ units of biodiversity for freshwater conservation

Nested systems of biodiversity classification are commonly used for designating protected area networks in terrestrial and marine realms. Whilst terrestrial-style protected areas are largely inappropriate for freshwater systems, the concepts of ‘representative’ biodiversity and ‘complementarity’ can be borrowed for freshwater conservation. Cryptic species are commonly found in freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish, and most have restricted distributions relative to the described conglomerate ‘species’. This indicates that ‘representative’ and therefore ‘complementary’ units of freshwater biodiversity may be smaller than previously appreciated. Using recently detected cryptic species in atyid shrimps from eastern Australia (Atyidae: Paratya australiensis, Caridina mccullochi and C. indistinca), we tested predictions about regional patterns of cryptic assemblage structure, endemism and Phylogenetic Diversity (PD) at the river scale, and discussed their implications for freshwater conservation. Patterns of distribution in these cryptic shrimp species largely corresponded with published distributional patterns of cryptic species in several freshwater fish in eastern Australia, and indicated the presence of four putative ecoregions within a previously recognised freshwater fish province (Eastern Province). However, some rivers had pronounced cryptic endemism, suggesting that rivers may not be ‘representative’ of one another’s biodiversity even within ecoregions. PD and endemism were largely correlated with one another, as endemics typically co-occurred with widespread species at the river scale. This study indicates that cryptic species can contribute to defining patterns of biodiversity at nested spatial scales that may be important for freshwater conservation.     

Land use and habitat gradients determine bird community diversity and abundance in suburban, rural and reserve landscapes of Minnesota, USA

Bird species’ community responses to land use in the suburbanizing Twin Cities, Minnesota, USA, were contrasted among reserves, rural lands, and suburbs. For each land use type, bird composition, diversity, and abundance were recorded for 2 years in ≈99 plots in three sampling units (each ≈4500 ha). A habitat gradient defined by canopy structure (grasslands to savannas to forests) was influenced by land use, so ≈300 plots were used to characterize simultaneous variation in bird communities along land use and habitat gradients. At broad scales (aggregate of 33 plots covering ≈4500 ha) suburbs supported the lowest bird richness and diversity and rural landscapes the most, with reserves slightly below rural. Although reserves were like rural lands in diversity of bird communities, they supported more species of conservation concern, particularly of grasslands and savannas. Differences among land use types varied with habitat structure. Suburbs, rural lands, and reserves had similar forest bird communities, but differed in grassland and savanna bird communities. The extensive rural forests are important for the region’s forest birds. Suburban grasslands and savannas had low shrub abundance, low native bird richness and high non-native bird richness and abundance. However, total bird richness and diversity were as high in suburban as in rural and reserve plots because high native richness in suburban forests and high non-native species richness in suburban grasslands and savannas compensated for lower native richness in suburban grasslands and savannas. Bird conservation here and in the Midwest USA should protect rural forests, expand grasslands and savannas in reserves, and improve habitat quality overall.     

Specialist response to proportion of arable land and pesticide input in agricultural landscapes

Increases in farming practice intensity and landscape simplification are two well-known threats for many farmland bird species. Nevertheless, the effects of these two factors may differ strongly among species. Here, we propose to use the specialist-generalist concept to assess which bird species are most affected by these two factors. Bird density and intensity of farming practices were assessed within a sample of 58 farms across the Seine-et-Marne region in France, using point counts and a standardised farmer survey. The local abundance of 41 farmland and non-farmland species was related to farming intensity (pesticide applications) and landscape simplification (proportion of arable land), which was quantified using generalised least square models to account for spatial autocorrelation. The more specialised the farmland and non-farmland birds were, the more negatively affected they were by the intensity of farming practices, relative to the generalist bird species. Local habitat simplification had a more positive effect on abundance of the most specialist farmland bird species. This latter relationship was not significant when tested at a landscape scale, which strongly suggests that the sensitivity of farmland specialists to landscape simplification is scale-dependent. Some non-farmland species’ abundance was also reduced by farming intensity and local landscape simplification suggesting that low-input agri-environmental measures could benefit both farmland and non-farmland specialists, regardless of local and landscape habitat context. However, if diversity-enhancing measures should benefit non-farmland populations, it is likely that they do not favour farmland specialist species which are more at risk. We suggest designing of priority areas for farmland specialist birds, and landscape managing accordingly.     

Facilitating the evolution of resistance to avian malaria in Hawaiian birds

Research has shown that avian malaria plays an important role in limiting the distribution and population sizes of many Hawaiian birds, and that projected climate change is likely to eliminate most disease-free habitat in Hawai’i in the next century. I used a modeling approach, parameterized with demographic data from the literature and the field, to examine alternate management scenarios for the conservation of native Hawaiian birds. I examined the feasibility of using management in the form of rodent control to facilitate the evolution of resistance to malaria by increasing the survival and reproduction of native birds. Analysis of demographic data from seven native species, Akepa (Loxops coccineus), ‘Akohekohe (Palmeria dolei), Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis), Hawai’i’amakihi (Hemignathus virens), Hawai’i creeper (Oreomystis mana), Omao (Myadestes obscurus), and Palila (Loxioides bailleui), suggest that differences in life history cause some species to be more susceptible to local extinctions from the transmission of malaria. Modeling results demonstrated that rodent control at middle, but not high, elevations can facilitate the evolution of resistance to malaria in several species of Hawaiian birds. Advocating a management approach that encourages evolutionary change in endangered species contrasts with the traditional conservation paradigm but it may be the best strategy to reduce the impacts of one of the multiple stressors that have devastated the native bird community of Hawai’i.     

Factors affecting site occupancy by woodland bird species of conservation concern

Significant biodiversity loss is characteristic of agricultural landscapes worldwide. Biodiversity recovery efforts in such landscapes can be hamstrung by a paucity of information on factors affecting species’ distributions, particularly for threatened and/or declining species. The temperate woodlands of south-eastern Australia have been extensively modified for agriculture and numerous bird taxa are declining. We have explicitly identified habitat and landscape attributes of woodland remnants affecting site occupancy by 13 woodland bird species of conservation concern.Using case-control data and linear logistic regression, we found that site occupancy for each species was related to both habitat and landscape variables. Habitat variables of particular importance included those in the ground layer (an abundance of leaf litter, an intact surface crust of mosses and lichens and a scarcity of annual grasses) and overstorey (a scarcity of eucalypt dieback and an abundance of mistletoe). Landscape variables strongly affecting site occupancy included the number of paddock trees and the area of native grass within 500 m of a site. Many of our study species were found most often in regrowth remnants.Our findings indicate a gap between current conservation practices and the actual habitat requirements of woodland bird species of conservation concern. Successful management will require protection and/or rehabilitation of the ground layer and overstorey of woodland remnants and sympathetic management of the surrounding landscape. It also will require managers to go beyond current practices of conserving old growth remnants and establishing replantings to maintaining and creating stands of woodland regrowth.     

Invasive plant suppresses charismatic seabird - the construction of attitudes towards biodiversity management options

Public attitudes towards biodiversity issues and the value judgments underlying biodiversity management and conservation are still poorly understood. This has raised serious concerns regarding the effective use of public participation in biodiversity policy making. We conducted quantitative face-to-face interviews with members of the general public in southeast Scotland to assess attitudes towards biodiversity management and examine attitude formation. For this, we applied social psychological attitude-behaviour theories to a case study investigating biodiversity management options for an island ecosystem in which the abundance of a charismatic seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) is compromised by the expansion of a tall invasive plant, tree mallow (Lavatera arborea). We found that attitudes as expressed by members of the public are informed by both value- and knowledge-based elements. Our research provides clear support for the notion that, in a conservation context, value-based principles matter to the public. Out of a set of seven conservation-related values, ‘balance’ and ‘naturalness’ were important factors that related strongly to the respondents’ attitudes. These relationships were even stronger for individuals emotionally involved with the topic. Other value-based principles such as uniqueness, autochthony and endangeredness of the species involved appeared to be of lesser relevance. The findings provide evidence that attitudes can be considered as distinct constructs that offer valuable and meaningful information to biodiversity policymakers and managers, and allow empirical insights into the way value judgments influence biodiversity management and conservation.     

The impacts of forest clearance on lizard, small mammal and bird communities in the arid spiny forest, southern Madagascar

Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot threatened by forest loss, degradation and fragmentation, all of which are detrimental to the future survival of forest-dwelling organisms. For conservation purposes it is essential to determine how species respond to habitat disturbance, specifically deforestation. In this study we investigated the impacts of deforestation on three vertebrate communities, lizards, small mammals and birds, in an area of spiny forest subjected to anthropogenic forest clearance. Spiny forest has high levels of endemism, but conservation in this unique ecosystem is hindered by the lack of research. We undertook standardised trapping, time-constrained and timed species searches to assess species richness, species abundance and community composition of lizards, small mammals and birds in six areas of ‘forest’ and six ‘cleared’ areas. From surveys and opportunistic sightings we recorded a total of 70 species of birds, 14 species of mammals and 38 species of reptiles and amphibians. We found forest clearing to have a negative effect on species richness and community structure of all groups and identified loss of canopy cover as a driving factor behind this. However, the response and sensitivity to clearing varied between groups and species. Lizards (50%) and small mammals (40%) had the greatest decline in species richness in response to clearing as compared to birds (26%), although birds showed the greatest shift in community structure. The community in cleared areas contained more generalist and introduced species that have wider geographic ranges and habitat preferences, than those unique to the spiny forest. We found the first suite of species to suffer from forest clearance were those of high conservation priority due to their restricted geographic range. Our findings are discussed in relation to future spiny forest conservation and management.     

High sensitivity of montane bird communities to habitat disturbance in Peninsular Malaysia

Over the past few decades, the montane forests of Peninsula Malaysia have been severely impacted by the cultivation of exotic crops and urban sprawl. To guide conservation initiatives, montane bird communities were studied to determine their response along a disturbance gradient with the aim of identifying key factors influencing their distribution. Habitat types surveyed included primary and secondary montane forests, a tea plantation, rural, and urban areas in Cameron Highlands and Fraser’s Hill. Response variables included species richness and density quantified via point counts and mistnet surveys. Explanatory variables measured were related to vegetation structure, food abundance and land-use cover. Estimated ‘true’ species richness was higher for pristine and minimally disturbed sites, lower in tea plantation and lowest in heavily developed town centres. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that both vegetation structure (e.g. canopy density) and land-use cover (e.g. proportion of forest cover) influence species distribution; certain invasive lowland birds were tolerant of extreme development and native montane birds, in general, endured only slight habitat disturbances. A simulation indicated that montane forest dependant species richness started to decline when more than 20% of the canopy cover was lost. Less than a third of the species richness remained when more than 40% of the canopy cover was cleared. The logistic regression model suggested that sensitive species nested lower, were restricted to montane habitats and foraged in mid or high canopy. The dominance of lowland invasives in highly developed urban sites reveals that homogenisation of bird communities can occur even at higher altitudes (>1400 m a.s.l.). The results indicated that native montane birds communities are sensitive to habitat loss and degradation. Thus, any development in the highlands must proceed with minimal disturbance to montane forests, of which, keeping the canopy cover intact should be a crucial consideration.     

Carabid beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) diversity in the black spruce succession of eastern Canada

This study provides the first assessment of carabid beetle diversity in a natural forest context that encompasses a complete black spruce (Picea mariana) natural succession. Boreal forest conservation has been based on several assumptions about forest age that only consider species richness without accounting for species composition. It has also been guided by studies of incomplete chronologies that do not include naturally burned or old-growth stages. Twenty-one forest stands of different ages following fire - from recently burned to old-growth stages (0-340 years of age) - were sampled, revealing a strong relationship between age of forest and diversity of Carabidae. Over time, species richness followed a parabolic U-shaped pattern both with observed (Obs) and predicted richness (ACE). Chronological clustering identified four groups of species in the succession: the ‘burned’ group characterized 0-2-year-old forests, ‘regenerating’ (21-58 year), ‘mature’ (70-170 year) and ‘old-growth’ (177-340 year). The time spans corresponding to each of these assemblages lengthen with age of forest at an exponential rate. Ward’s and K-means (clustering without constraint) provided support for the four assemblages but showed variation between individual successions, particularly for the ‘regenerating’ assemblage, identified as the most heterogeneous. The IndVal method identified characteristic species in every stage of the succession, particularly Sericoda spp. in the burned stage and Dromius piceus and Platynus mannerheimii associated with old-growth stands. The results obtained here show that diversity of Carabidae varies in primeval conditions according to age of forest and such variation should be taken into account when conservation issues are involved.     

Impact of farm size and topography on plant and insect diversity of managed grasslands in the Alps

Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of land-use practices and the associated decline in semi-natural habitats have been the major drivers of farmland biodiversity loss. In many marginal agricultural systems, a structural transformation of farms, from small and traditional to large and intensive, has also been observed. We unravelled the impact of farm size and slope on plant, orthopteran and butterfly diversity in 132 hay meadows in a region of the Italian Alps. We defined three farm size classes representing different levels of intensification and used mixed models to test the influence of farm size along with topographic slope. The diversity of plants, orthopterans and butterflies declined with management intensity at the field scale, which mainly depended on farm size and grassland topography. We found a positive effect of slope and a negative influence of farm size on species richness of the three taxonomic groups. Large farms were strongly associated with higher production of organic fertilizers and higher soil fertility than small traditional farms, irrespective of meadow slope. At the regional scale, we found that large farms managed flatter meadows (slope = 9.0) than small traditional farms (slope = 13.5), contributing to the abandonment of steep species-rich grassland areas. Regional stakeholders should consider targeted conservation schemes to prevent the ongoing substitution of small farms with large intensive farms. A complementary solution could be to target future conservation measures to support farms with low production of organic fertilizers and to reward the maintenance of the current management of steep meadows.     

The use of winter bird crops by farmland birds in lowland England

Winter food for farmland birds can be enhanced by planting seed-rich ‘winter bird crops’ (WBCs), the content of which is highly variable. Data from three winters (October to March in 1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001) were used to assess the value of different WBCs for lowland farmland birds in England, based on around 100 plots per winter. Densities of gamebirds, insectivorous and seed-eating passerines were generally higher on WBCs than on conventional crops, stubbles or grassland (except for skylark (Alauda arvensis) and rook (Corvus frugilegus). Kale supported high densities of the widest range of bird species (including insectivorous and seed-eating species), quinoa was used by finches and tree sparrows (Passer montanus), and (unharvested) seeding cereals supported high densities of buntings. Sunflowers, phacelia and buckwheat supported low densities of most bird species. The differences between WBCs were more marked in late winter, owing to better seed retention by kale and quinoa compared with other crops. A combination of kale, quinoa and seeding cereals will support the highest densities of the greatest variety of bird species, but WBC content can also be varied to suit circumstance or species. This study demonstrates the value of WBCs for a wide range of birds, and discusses this with respect to existing ‘agri-environment schemes’, highlighting the need for similar options in pastoral landscapes where seed resources are particularly rare.     

Conservation priorities differ at opposing species borders of a European orchid

How populations from different regions within the distribution of a species contribute to the adaptive potential and survival of that species has important implications for formulating conservation actions. We test assumptions of concepts on geographic population structure (e.g. central-marginal concept and ‘rear edge versus leading edge’ model) that could be used to inform conservation of plant species under climatic changes. We analyze a comprehensive dataset of demographic traits (e.g. population size, flowering, δ¹³C of plant leaves) of up to 32 sites of Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng. (Orchidaceae) located within six sub-regions of its European distribution range. Soil and climate parameters are employed as environmental predictors of variation in measured population traits. Climate is the main driver of demographic variability overriding central-marginal gradients that might be present. Warming of the climate at high latitudes paves the way for northward range expansion of species. Populations at the north and north-eastern range peripheries partly show exponential population growth and high genetic diversity and are likely to be the source of immigrants for colonization of newly suitable habitats as the climate continues to change. In recent times, populations at the southern range periphery have suffered from intensification of land use and decreasing rainfall, but in the case of Southern Italy are important because they contain genetically unique traits. Populations at both, ‘leading’ and ‘rear’, edges ought to be at the focus of conservation planning. Different conservation strategies are proposed at opposing species borders taking into account spatial variation in population needs on a geographic scale, projected population response to expected environmental changes and genetic characteristics.     

Uneven regional distribution of protected areas in Finland: Consequences for boreal forest bird populations

The significance of reserves in maintaining forest bird species of conservation concern (N = 36) was studied by large-scale quantitative line transect bird censuses in Finland, which stretches 1100 km through the boreal zone from the hemiboreal to the subarctic. Altogether 12 245 km of line transect was carried out in 1981-2004 in reserves covering 28 910 km². Bird census data in protected areas were combined into 100 km × 100 km squares. As a group the studied bird species were rather evenly distributed throughout the reserve network. The present reserve network is particularly significant for species having their highest densities in northern Finland, because large proportions of the populations of these species occurred in protected areas. However, over half of the studied species were concentrated in protected areas of southern and central Finland, and only small proportions of their populations were included in the present reserve network. In contrast to the whole species pool of conservation concern, the studied individual forest bird species were not distributed evenly throughout the whole reserve network. This suggests that for most individual species a regionally concentrated network is a preferred option, but for the whole species group the reserve network should clearly be regionally complementary and representative even in the boreal zone, where species have rather wide ranges. Thus, only some species and their habitats can be preserved in a spatially uneven reserve network in boreal forests.     

Longitudinal patterns in bird reporting rates in a threatened ecosystem: Is change regionally consistent?

Work in many parts of the world has discussed the decline of biodiversity in regions dominated by agriculture. We report the results of a major study documenting the longitudinal profiles of birds between 1998 and 2009 within 66 patches of temperate woodland in a heavily cleared and grazed agricultural region of south-eastern Australia. Many researchers have forecast the loss of bird biota from this region and others that also were formerly dominated by temperate woodland.We had sufficient high quality data to analyse the longitudinal profiles of reporting rates for 76 of the 116 individual bird species recorded in our 12-year study. Unexpectedly, only four of the 76 species analysed (5.6%) exhibited a significant negative linear decrease in reporting rate. More surprisingly, 32 (42.1%) exhibited a significant positive linear increase in reporting rate, including several taxa of conservation concern. These increases occurred despite a series of below-average rainfall years. Reporting rates were too low to formally model long-term trends in some other bird species widely considered to be of conservation concern such as the Diamond Firetail (Stagonopleura guttata) and Speckled Warbler (Chthonicola sagittata).Many authors have used functional (and other) groups to forecast bird species likely to be lost from Australia’s temperate woodlands. However, we found no clear links between life history attributes and long-term trend patterns of species.Our findings contrast with recent findings from other temperate woodland-dominated regions in eastern Australia where losses in bird populations have been documented. However, they parallel other investigations such as in central New South Wales. These similarities among, and differences between, studies suggest regional differences in temporal patterns in bird population dynamics. Many of the observed changes in reporting rates were positive and they provide hope that forecast future losses of a large proportion of existing temperate woodland bird assemblages in south-eastern Australia may not be realised uniformly in all regions.     

The impact of data realities on conservation planning

Conservation planning decisions are typically made on the basis of species distribution or occurrence data, which ideally would have complete spatial and taxonomic coverage. Agencies are constrained in the data they can collect, often pragmatically prioritising certain groups such as threatened species, or methods, such as volunteer surveys. This mismatch between goals and realities inevitably leads to bias and uncertainty in conservation planning outputs, yet few studies have assessed how data realities affect planning outputs. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the Protection Index, a method for assessing conservation progress and priorities, using an extensive dataset on species occurrences and distributions derived from the Florida Natural Areas Inventory. Analyses revealed a high proportion of occurrence records for threatened species and certain taxonomic groups, reflecting the agencies’ priorities. We performed a sensitivity analysis on conservation planning outputs, simulating a ‘data poor’ scenario typical of many real situations; we deleted increasing amounts of data in both a biased (exaggerating patterns observed) and unbiased (random) manner. We assessed the effects of data paucity and bias on the value of potential conservation sites, and planning priorities. Certain high value sites with only a few important species occurrences were more sensitive to data depletion than those with many occurrences. Data bias based on taxonomic bias was more influential to site value than threat rank. To maximise benefit from surveys from a planning perspective, it would be better to focus on poorly surveyed areas rather than adding occurrences in already well represented sites. This study demonstrates the importance of sensitivity analysis in conservation planning, and that the effects of uncertainty and data quality on planning decisions should not be ignored.