基于视频分析的多目标奶牛反刍行为监测

奶牛反刍行为与其生产、繁殖和应激行为等存在较强的相关性,现有方法多采用人工观察或可穿戴式装置进行奶牛反刍行为的监测,存在误差大、容易引起奶牛应激反应、成本高等问题。为了实现多目标奶牛反刍行为的实时监测,该研究基于视频分析与目标跟踪技术,在获取奶牛嘴部区域的基础上,分析对比了压缩跟踪算法(compressive tracking,CT)和核相关滤波算法(kernelized correlation filters,KCF)在多目标奶牛反刍监测中的性能。为了验证不同算法对奶牛反刍行为监测的效果,分别用9段视频进行了试验,针对误检问题提出了有效的咀嚼次数判定模型,最后与实际的奶牛反刍数据进行了对比。试验结果表明:对多目标监测,KCF算法平均帧处理速度为7.37帧/s,是CT算法平均帧处理速度0.51帧/s的14.45倍;KCF算法平均误差为13.27像素,是CT算法平均误差38.28像素的34.67%。对双目标监测,KCF算法的平均误检率为7.72%,比CT算法的平均误检率18.56%低10.84个百分点;2种算法的帧处理速度分别为10.11帧/s和0.87帧/s;平均跟踪误差分别为22.19像素和28.51像素,KCF算法的平均跟踪误差仅为CT算法的77.83%。试验结果表明,KCF算法具有较低的误检率及较高的帧处理速度,更适合奶牛反刍行为的监测。在此基础上,验证了2种算法在不同光照、不同姿态和不同程度遮挡等影响因素下的监测效果,结果表明,CT算法会出现不同程度的偏离,甚至丢失目标,而KCF算法仍然具有良好的效果和较好的适应性,表明将KCF算法应用于全天候多目标奶牛反刍行为的分析是可行的、有效的。     

利用Kalman滤波和Hungarian算法的多目标奶牛嘴部跟踪及反刍监测

针对奶牛养殖场复杂环境下多目标奶牛嘴部自动跟踪及反刍监测的困难,该研究提出了一种基于嘴部区域跟踪的多目标奶牛反刍行为智能监测方法。在YOLOv4模型识别奶牛嘴部上下颚区域的基础上,以Kalman滤波和Hungarian算法跟踪上颚区域,并对同一奶牛目标的上颚和下颚区域进行关联匹配获取嘴部咀嚼曲线,以此获取反刍相关信息,从而实现多目标奶牛个体的嘴部跟踪和反刍行为监测;为解决奶牛快速摆头运动和棚舍栏杆遮挡引发奶牛标号变化的问题,提出未匹配跟踪框保持及扩大的方法。采集并选择实际养殖场环境下的反刍奶牛视频66段,对其中58段视频采取分帧操作得到图像,制作YOLOv4模型数据集,以其余8段视频验证跟踪方法和反刍行为判定方法的有效性。试验结果表明,YOLOv4模型对奶牛嘴部上颚、下颚区域的识别准确率分别为93.92%和92.46%;改进的跟踪算法可实现复杂环境下多目标奶牛嘴部区域的稳定跟踪,且有效解决了栏杆遮挡、快速摆头运动造成的奶牛标号变化现象,上下颚匹配率平均为99.89%,跟踪速度平均为31.85帧/s;由反刍行为判定方法获取的咀嚼次数正确率的平均值为96.93%,反刍时长误差的平均值为1.48 s。该研究可为实际养殖中多目标奶牛反刍行为的智能监测和分析提供参考,也可供其他群体动物运动部位的跟踪和行为监测借鉴。     

基于Horn-Schunck光流法的多目标反刍奶牛嘴部自动监测

奶牛反刍行为的智能监测对于奶牛健康及提升现代养殖业的水平具有重要意义。奶牛嘴部区域的自动检测是奶牛反刍行为智能监测的关键,该文提出一种基于Horn-Schunck光流法的多目标奶牛嘴部区域自动检测方法。利用Horn-Schunck光流法模型求取奶牛反刍视频中各时间序列图像的光流场,将各帧序列图像中运动较大的光流数据进行叠加,获取奶牛反刍时的候选嘴部区域,最后运用奶牛嘴部区域检测模型实现反刍奶牛嘴部区域的检测。为了验证算法的有效性,利用不同环境下获取的12段视频进行验证,选取的12段视频的每段时长10 s,每段视频帧数在250~280帧之间,结果表明,对于多目标奶牛,12段视频中有8段视频可以成功检测到反刍奶牛的嘴部区域;根据所定义的真实充盈率指标与检测充盈率指标,分别统计了8段成功检测反刍奶牛嘴部区域的视频检测结果,试验表明,8段视频中最大真实充盈率为96.76%,最小真实充盈率为25.36%,总体平均真实充盈率为63.91%;最大检测充盈率为98.51%,最小检测充盈率为43.80%,总体平均检测充盈率为70.06%。研究结果表明,将Horn-Schunck光流法应用于多目标奶牛嘴部区域的自动检测是可行的,该研究可为奶牛反刍行为的智能监测提供参考。     

应用反演式气体扩散技术测定奶牛场甲烷的排放特征

为了准确揭示奶牛场的甲烷排放特征,在我国首次采用国际上最新的反演式气体扩散技术与开路式激光仪相结合的研究方法,分别于2009年冬季和2010年春季测定了保定市某奶牛养殖基地甲烷的排放特征,测定期间养殖基地的动物总量平均为1200头。结果表明,奶牛养殖场尺度的甲烷排放在冬季和春季均呈现出规律性的日排放特征,即养殖场甲烷日排放高峰出现在0500、1130和1630,排放高峰的出现时间与上料时间基本吻合;冬季和春季试验期间该养殖场的反刍和粪尿甲烷总排放量分别为0.31t.d-1和0.36t.d-1,养殖基地内整个牛群平均每头牛的反刍和粪尿甲烷日排放总量分别为0.26kg.d-1和0.30kg.d-1,春季的甲烷日排放量比冬季约高16.7,初步揭示了奶牛场尺度甲烷排放的季节性差异。     

奶牛饲喂自动机电控制系统的设计与试验

为开展奶牛精准饲喂及采食行为学研究,设计了一种集自动识别、饲喂、数据自动采集、数据分析与处理于一体的奶牛饲喂自动机电控制系统。该系统包括机械装置、电子识别系统、料槽称质量系统、中央控制系统、现场数据存贮及远程数据提取与分析系统等几部分。其中,机械装置包括料斗、支撑座、栏杆和阻挡单元等;电子识别系统包括阅读天线及料门启闭的气动装置;料槽称质量系统除支撑座外,还有嵌入的质量传感器及线路;中央控制系统包括微处理器、看门狗复位电路、读卡器电路、称质量数据采集电路、数据通信电路、数据收发器电路及外围驱动与稳压电路等。现场数据存贮电路接受来自各个饲喂系统的中央控制系统发送的采食行为数据,其主板结构与中央控制系统基本一致,预设可存贮记录数为14 000条,且采用堆栈数据存贮模式。远程PC端数据提取与分析系统实时管理采食行为数据,并提供多功能的数据挖掘分析。系统测试结果表明,对牛只低频RFID(134 kHz)电子耳标的识读率为100%,料及槽的计量范围为0.01~200 kg,最低称量精度10 g,实际称量相对误差≤0.15%,同时满足奶牛对最大采食量及精准饲喂对计量的需求。系统的采食行为试验表明,奶牛的日均采食次数、采食时间及采食量等采食行为均差异显著(P0.05),符合奶牛的采食行为特点。具体地,奶牛日均采食次数10~13次,日均采食时间5.38 h,而奶牛个体实际采食量与NRC(National Research Council)模型预测的采食量有-4.76%~7.83%的偏差,可能是由各种内外部因素及NRC模型的普适度造成的,有待进一步研究。总之,该系统能较好地实现奶牛个体的精细化饲喂,为研究奶牛的采食行为特点提供了在线、智能化的自动数据采集与分析平台。     

东北地区奶牛夏季热应激对其行为和产奶量的影响

为研究奶牛夏季热应激对其行为和产奶量的影响,该文选取了东北地区典型的舍饲散养奶牛场,通过对整个夏季牛舍环境指标以及奶牛阴道温度、行为参数和产奶性能的连续监测,探究了东北地区奶牛热应激状况及其对行为和生产性能的影响。结果表明,夏季该场奶牛经历轻度和中度热应激的时间分别占40.9%和17.9%,每天12:00—20:00是中度热应激高发时段。从轻度到中度热应激,奶牛的核心体温(core body temperature,CBT)从38.8℃上升到39.3℃,且其体温变化滞后于环境参数的变化。由无热应激到中度热应激,奶牛躺卧时间比例从51.3%下降至42.3%,站立时间则相应增加。当日均温湿指数(temperature-humidity index,THI)大于75时,奶牛产奶量显著降低9.2%(P0.05)。东北地区夜间开放运动场,有利于奶牛缓解白天热应激的影响,降低减产损失。     

规模化奶牛场泌乳牛粪便氮磷含量预测模型研究

为了探讨基于泌乳牛日粮营养成分及其基本生产状况预测粪便氮磷含量的可行性,建立粪便总氮(fecal nitrogen,FN)、粪便总磷(fecal phosphorus,FP)含量的预测模型。本试验以中国荷斯坦奶牛为研究对象,选取天津市具有代表性的7家规模化奶牛场为采样点,利用问卷调查收集了20组泌乳期奶牛日粮营养成分及基本生产状况等基础数据,并采集了60份粪便样品,测定其氮磷含量。选取其中14组泌乳期奶牛日粮营养成分及基本生产状况等基础数据和48份泌乳牛粪便的氮磷含量,利用SAS统计分析软件,对其进行相关性分析和回归分析,建立预测模型。结果表明:日粮有机质摄入量(organic matter intake,OMI)和粗脂肪摄入量(crude fat intake,CFi)与泌乳牛粪便总氮含量有显著的正相关性,相关系数分别为0.836和0.705。泌乳牛体重(body weight,BW)与粪便总磷含量呈负相关性,相关系数为-0.525。利用多元线性回归分析建立的预测模型的决定系数R2显著高于一元线性回归方程。其中基于泌乳牛产奶量(milk yield,MY),产奶天数(days in milk,DIM),日粮有机质摄入量OMI和氮摄入量(nitrogen intake,NI)建立的粪便总氮含量的预测模型的决定系数R2可达0.96(P0.001),预测方程为:y=0.43+0.29×MY+0.02×DIM+0.92×OMI-13.01×NI。粪便总磷含量的预测模型的决定系数R2相对低于总氮含量的预测模型,最高为0.62(P0.10),预测方程为:y=22.97-0.026×BW-4.02×NI+14.63×PI(phosphorus intake,PI)。最后利用6组泌乳牛日粮营养成分及其基本生产状况的基础数据和对应的18份粪便样品的氮磷含量对最优预测模型进行了外部验证。结果表明,粪便总氮含量和总磷含量的预测值与测定值间的相对误差分别为1.62%和3.81%,预测标准差分别为0.70 mg·g-1和0.68 mg·g-1,模型取得较理想的预测结果。     

基于中红外光谱的规模化奶牛场粪水总氮快速预测方法

为建立适用于规模化奶牛场粪水中总氮含量的快速预测方法,以天津市23家种养结合型规模化奶牛场粪水治理全过程环节的样品为研究对象,探讨了基于中红外衰减全反射光谱技术快速预测粪水总氮含量的可行性。以偏最小二乘法分别建立了同一奶牛场粪水总氮含量的全程定标模型和不同奶牛场粪水总氮含量的全局定标模型,并采用独立的预测集验证了模型有效性。结果表明:全程模型总氮预测含量与实测含量的线性拟合相关系数为0.98,预测均方根误差RMSEP为130.18 mg/L,剩余预测偏差为4.97,可用于某一奶牛场粪水运移全过程环节总氮含量的快速预测;全局模型总氮预测含量与实测含量的线性拟合相关系数为0.97,预测均方根误差RMSEP为191.66 mg/L,剩余预测偏差为3.83,可用于不同奶牛场多元因素条件下总氮含量的快速预测。研究表明,基于中红外衰减全反射光谱可以实现对不同类型规模化奶牛场粪水治理全过程环节样品总氮含量的即时监测和跟踪。     

春秋季对近红外光谱模型预测奶牛场粪水氮磷含量结果的影响

为研究季节因素对规模化奶牛场粪水氮磷含量及其近红外光谱模型预测结果的影响,该研究采集了天津市春秋双季27家规模化奶牛场粪水处理全过程的250个粪水样品,解析了季节对粪水氮磷含量分布特征的影响,同时采集了所有样品的近红外光谱并进行主成分分析。采用偏最小二乘法(Partial Least Squares,PLS)建立了粪水氮磷季节内预测模型,包括春秋单季和双季融合模型以及季节间的相互预测模型。结果表明,粪水氮磷含量随季节变化呈现出差异性,季节内模型总体的预测效果较好,优于季节间模型;其中春季模型表现最佳,验证相关系数分别为0.98和0.90,剩余预测偏差(Residual Predictive Deviation,RPD)分别为4.67和2.03。研究表明,季节因素对粪水中氮磷含量的模型预测结果存在不同程度的影响,该研究可为建立全季节要素的综合模型提供依据。     

基于多特征融合的粒子滤波生猪采食行为跟踪

针对中国养猪业规模化、集约化迅猛发展过程中,人工观察监测记录生猪生长情况需损耗大量人力和物力,得到数据误差大的问题,该文提出将颜色特征与目标轮廓形心特征融合,基于粒子滤波算法实现生猪采食行为跟踪,当目标跟踪矩形框中心坐标和跟踪目标轮廓形心坐标之间的横坐标偏差大于跟踪目标轮廓横坐标方向的最大值与最小值的差的一半时,或其之间的纵坐标偏差大于跟踪目标轮廓纵坐标方向的最大值与最小值的差一半时,对基于颜色特征粒子滤波算法得到的跟踪矩形框的中心坐标进行二次修正,提高了目标生猪跟踪的可靠性和鲁棒性;通过对比试验,结果表明:该方法能够对目标生猪的采食行为进行自动跟踪、记录和分析,记录的目标生猪一天内的采食次数和采食时间与人工记录结果基本相同,有效跟踪平均精度为93.4%。     

低氮和干旱胁迫对富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的影响

【目的】以富士（Fuji）、 秦冠（Qinguan）嫁接在平邑甜茶（Malus hupehensis Rehd.）上的当年生盆栽苗为试验材料,采用砂培方法,研究了缺氮胁迫和干旱对富士和秦冠生长情况、 光合参数、 植株各部位氮磷钾含量及氮素利用效率的影响,分析比较了低氮干旱条件下富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的差异,以期为果树生产高效肥水利用提供理论指导。【方法】试验共设四个处理: 正常氮正常水（ZZ）、 低氮正常水（DZ）、 正常氮干旱（ZG）、 低氮干旱（DG）。氮素和水分均设置两个水平,分别为正常氮（6 mmol/L NO-3-N）、 低氮（0.3 mmol/LNO-3-N）、 正常供水（保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的80%~85%）、 干旱处理（保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的60%~65%）。【结果】富士和秦冠的生物量（茎和叶）、 株高茎粗等生长指标以及光合速率、 气孔导度、 蒸腾速率均为正常氮正常水（ZZ）＞低氮正常水（DZ）＞正常氮干旱（ZG）＞低氮干旱（DG）,并且相对应处理下秦冠的以上指标均高于富士;正常供水下,缺氮处理使富士、 秦冠的根冠比比正常氮处理均有所增加,富士提高了2.05%,秦冠提高了22.40%。富士和秦冠的氮、 磷、 钾含量均表现出正常氮正常水（ZZ）＞低氮正常水（DZ）＞正常氮干旱（ZG）＞低氮干旱（DG）; 氮、 钾元素含量在植株各部位的分布顺序依次是叶＞根＞茎,磷元素则是根＞叶＞茎;光合氮素利用效率（PNUE）和氮素利用效率表现为秦冠处理之间差异极显著,富士处理之间差异不显著;秦冠的PNUE和NUE明显高于富士,在低氮正常水（DZ）处理下,秦冠氮肥利用率比富士高42.07%,在低氮干旱（DG）处理下高64.14%;低氮胁迫下富士和秦冠的NUE显著提高,并且秦冠提高的幅度高于富士。【结论】施用氮肥能够显著提高富士与秦冠的干物质量,同等水肥条件下,秦冠生长优于富士;水分亏缺会减少叶片对氮的吸收,干旱条件下适度增施氮肥,可提高果树的抗旱能力;低氮干旱胁迫下秦冠的生长指标、 光合指标及氮素利用效率指标均优于富士,表现出较强的抗低氮干旱胁迫的能力。     

Biodiversity and ecogeography of wild Lactuca spp. in some European countries

Staff members of the Department of Botany of Palacký University in Olomouc and Gene Bank Department – Workplace Olomouc, Research Institute of Crop Production in Prague, Czech Republic, conducted an expedition in seven European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland) in August/September 1999 to collect wild Lactuca spp. germplasm and study its geographic distribution, ecology and biodiversity. During the mission, more than 600 locations were visited resulting in the collection of 602 seed samples (accessions) of wild Lactuca species and 13 seed samples of related genera (Chondrilla and Mycelis). Lactuca serriola f. serriola, L. serriola f. integrifolia, L. saligna and L. viminea subsp. chondrilliflora were prevalent in southern Europe (Italy, France), however, only L. serriola was common in central and western Europe (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland). The greatest diversity of Lactuca species was found in France, where also the most seed samples (165) were collected. The most characteristic habitats with a high density of Lactuca spp. populations were observed along roads and highways, grassy ditches, ruderal communities, and dust-heaps. Natural infections by powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum) and downy mildew (Bremia lactucae) on some wild Lactuca spp. were observed. Recent observations concerning the geographic distribution, population structure, habitats, and natural occurrence of diseases of Lactuca spp. are discussed. This assemblage of genetic resources of Lactuca spp. can serve as the basis of future studies of species diversification, spatial population structure, plant microevolution, domestication processes, and genetic variability of host-parasite interactions.     

Pasture Vegetation Elemental Analysis by Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a new technique for the analysis of plant material. This study investigates the application of LIBS to pasture-based plant samples. The LIBS measurements were obtained from pelletized pasture samples (100 samples) that had been also analyzed by inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) following microwave digestion for calibration and comparison purposes. Comparisons for elements sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), boron (B), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S) showed that LIBS could be used for almost all the standard profile total elements with concentrations down to low mg/kg levels (observed error of Na: 0.024 percent, K: 0.18 percent, Mg: 0.016 percent, Ca: 0.073 percent, P: 0.017 percent, Mn: 31 mg/kg, Fe: 150 mg/kg, Zn: 6.6 mg/kg, and B: 1.1 mg/kg). Elemental analysis at less than mg/kg levels was not possible using LIBS. The elements S and Cu were particularly difficult to analyze with reliability using LIBS at the concentration levels found in the plant samples. Replacing microwave digestion and subsequent ICP analysis with a direct analysis of dried plant samples using LIBS has the potential to improve the productivity and reduce the cost of testing.     

Properties of anaerobically digested and composted municipal solid waste assessed by linking soil mesofauna dynamics and nitrogen modelling

We have studied the effect of anaerobically digested (ADMSW) and composted municipal solid waste (CMSW) on mineralization and foodweb dynamics to verify the hypothesis that ADMSW would immobilize N right after addition to soil in contrast to addition with CMSW. Another hypothesis was that the mesofauna (enchytraeids and microarthropods) would stimulate N release from the decomposer community. We measured excretion of -N and urea-N from the mesofauna and hypothesized that enchytraeids would release urea. ADMSW and CMSW were amended to pots with sandy loam and barley. The pots were divided into treatments with or without mesofauna. Mesofauna, plant N and biomass, soil N and ergosterol (fungal biomass) were measured over a 113-day period of four equidistant samplings. Soil respiration, N mineralization and N release by the mesofauna were modelled from concurrent studies. ADMSW- and CMSW-treated soils initially (<20 days) immobilized N. The amendments did not increase plant growth substantially, and this was probably due to N-limitation in the early stages of plant growth. Enchytraeid abundance was about three times higher in ADMSW- than CMSW-treated soils, indicating that ADMSW contained more labile compounds, bacteria, and microfauna. The mesofauna did not affect N-content, but the cumulated -N excreted by the mesofauna was estimated to be substantial and about one-fifth of total plant N in ADMSW. An explanation for this discrepancy might be that in the absence of the mesofauna, other members of the detrivore and microbivore community performed the mesofauna’s function. Neither enchytraeids nor microarthropods excreted urea.     

Faculty positions: Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences

正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,     

Faculty positions: Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences

正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,     

Faculty positions:Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences

正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,     

Macroinvertebrates in North American tallgrass prairie soils: effects of fire, mowing, and fertilization on density and biomass

The responses of tallgrass prairie plant communities and ecosystem processes to fire and grazing are well characterized. However, responses of invertebrate consumer groups, and particularly soil-dwelling organisms, to these disturbances are not well known. At Konza Prairie Biological Station, we sampled soil macroinvertebrates in 1994 and 1999 as part of a long-term experiment designed to examine the effects and interactions of annual fire, mowing, and fertilization (N and P) on prairie soil communities and processes. For nearly all taxa, in both years, responses were characterized by significant treatment interactions, but some general patterns were evident. Introduced European earthworms (Aporrectodea spp. and Octolasion spp.) were most abundant in plots where fire was excluded, and the proportion of the total earthworm community consisting of introduced earthworms was greater in unburned, unmowed, and fertilized plots. Nymphs of two Cicada genera were collected (Cicadetta spp. and Tibicen spp.). Cicadetta nymphs were more abundant in burned plots, but mowing reduced their abundance. Tibicen nymphs were collected almost exclusively from unburned plots. Treatment effects on herbivorous beetle larvae (Scarabaeidae, Elateridae, and Curculionidae) were variable, but nutrient additions (N or P) usually resulted in greater densities, whereas mowing usually resulted in lower densities. Our results suggest that departures from historical disturbance regimes (i.e. frequent fire and grazing) may render soils more susceptible to increased numbers of European earthworms, and that interactions between fire, aboveground biomass removal, and vegetation responses affect the structure and composition of invertebrate communities in tallgrass prairie soils.     

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures: Resolving the “wicked” problem of the Steller sea lion

“Wicked” problems are those that are complex and that change when solutions are applied. Many conflicts in conservation fall into this category. The study approached the problem of how to constrain the apparent wickedness of a problem in the conservation management of a species by using simple empirical indicators to carry out iterative assessment of the risk to a population and to document how this risk evolves in relation to the addition of new data and the implementation of management actions. Effects of high levels of uncertainty within data and also concerning population structure were examined through stochastic simulation and by exploration of scenarios. Historical trends in the example used, the Steller sea lion, showed rapid declines in abundance in some regions during the 1980s. The current total population is 130,000-150,000 Steller sea lions through Alaska and British Columbia and this number has been stable since about 1990 in spite of regional differences in population dynamics. Regional differences in the sequence of changes in the number of pups and non-pups, suggested that an internal re-distribution of juveniles could have happened between 1980 and 1990. Current productivity also appears close to the long-term mean. Stochastic population projection using various scenarios showed that, based upon this history, the risk of extinction for the population has declined and is below reasonable thresholds for considering the population to be endangered. The trends in risk suggest that management actions taken since 1990 have probably been effective. Consequently, the conservation management objectives for the Steller sea lion are probably being met. The approach provides a mechanism, based upon experience and scenario analysis, for exploring future policy options and may help to constrain the debate amongst stakeholders about the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with different options.     

Soil-profile distribution of primary and secondary plant-available nutrients under conventional and no tillage

Nutrient distributions under no tillage (NT) compared with conventional disk-and-bed tillage (CT) management in the warm, humid region of the southeastern USA need to be assessed so that future placement, quantity, and type of fertilizers can be altered, if necessary, to efficiently match crop demands. We determined soil-profile distributions of pH, N, P, S, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu to a depth of 0.9 m at the end of 8.5 years of continuous CT and NT management on a Weswood silty clay loam (fine, mixed, thermic Fluventic Ustochrept) in southcentral Texas. Most dramatic changes occurred within the 0–0.05 m depth, where soil under NT had lower pH, Fe, and Cu than under CT, but greater P, K, Zn, and Mn. Greater P and K under NT than under CT also occurred below the till-zone (0.15–0.3 m). At a depth of 0–0.3 m, soil under NT contained greater amounts of extractable P, K, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu than under CT. Nitrogen fertilization had little effect on nutrient distributions, except resulting in greater extractable K at 0–0.05 m and greater nitrate at 0–0.15 m. Few changes in soil-profile distributions were observed for extractable S, Ca, Mg, and Na. Long-term continuous use of NT on this fine-textured, high-fertility (except for N) soil had no apparent adverse effects on nutrient distributions relative to CT, but enhanced conservation and availability of P, K, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu near the soil surface where crop roots proliferate.