Urbanization Development under Climate Change: Hydrological Responses in a Peri‐Urban Mediterranean Catchment

Relatively few studies have so far investigated the hydrological impacts of urbanization in Mediterranean catchments, and particularly in peri‐urban catchments experiencing relatively rapid and large changes in their land‐use mosaic. This study uses data‐based model simulations to investigate such impacts, with the Ribeira dos Covões catchment in Portugal as a concrete Mediterranean peri‐urban catchment example. We distinguish the impacts of urbanization from those of climatic change on the water flux partitioning and connectivity in the catchment over the period 1958–2013. Decrease in precipitation over this period has primarily driven decreases in annual runoff and actual evapotranspiration, while the urbanization development has primarily changed the relative flux partitioning and connectivity pattern in the catchment. The relative contribution of overland flow to annual and seasonal runoff has increased, keeping the absolute overland flow more or less intact, while the baseflow contribution to the stream network has decreased. Methodologically, the present simulation approach provides a relevant means for distinguishing main drivers of change in hydrological flux partitioning and connectivity under concurrent urbanization and climatic changes. © 2017 The Authors. Land Degradation & Development Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

气候和土地利用变化对潮河流域产流产沙的影响

为探究气候变异和土地利用变化对流域产流产沙的影响,选择位于北京密云水库上游的潮河流域,对该流域1961-2009年的年径流、年降水、年潜在蒸散发和年输沙量分别进行了非参数检验和突变点分析,结合该流域不同时期的土地利用变化情况,采用水量平衡原理,定量评价该流域土地利用和气候变异对年径流量和年输沙量变化的贡献。结果表明:该流域年径流量在1961-2009年间呈显著减少趋势,并在1999年发生突变,但年降水和潜在蒸散发没有显著变化。该流域年输沙量显著减少,且于2004年发生突变。分析表明该流域气候变异和土地利用变化对年径流量减少的贡献率分别为43.9%和56.1%,而对年输沙量减少的贡献率分别为1.95%和98.05%。土地利用变化是导致该流域年径流量减少,特别是年产沙量减少的重要原因。在全球气候变化的大背景下,通过调整流域土地利用结构、优化土地利用方式,开展以植被恢复为主体的水土流失综合治理,是实现适应性流域管理目标的根本途径。     

Runoff Trends Driven by Climate and Afforestation in a Pyrenean Basin

The abandonment of traditional rural life in mountain areas has favoured the expansion of forest in the headwaters of Pyrenean rivers. In this paper, we (i) analyse hydro‐climatic trends at the annual and monthly scales in three nested sub‐catchments in a central Pyrenean basin and (ii) quantify the relative contribution of climate change and forest cover on the observed changes in runoff. Land use maps indicate an increase in the forest cover in all sub‐basins for the period 1987–2009. Non‐parametric Mann–Kendall statistic on annual and monthly hydro‐climatic data from 1965 to 2009 was used to identify trends in climate and runoff data. To assess the potential influence of the period length, trends were also examined for the 1941–2009 stretch. Upward trends were detected for temperature and potential evapotranspiration, particularly during summer and winter months. Precipitation trends and their significance depended on the length of the period considered, although overall results indicated a decrease, particularly for February and July. The effects of climate change and land cover change on annual runoff were identified by means of a change point analysis. Results indicated that a change in annual runoff took place in the 1980s, suggesting the non‐linearity in the relationship between precipitation and runoff, and thus the influence of land use factors. The influence of forest cover was confirmed by comparing observed runoff trends with those resulting from a hydro‐climatic model that does not take into account land use changes. Divergence between both trends revealed that forest cover can account for ~40% of the observed decrease in annual runoff. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Variations of Flow–sediment Relationships in a Highly Erodible Catchment of the Loess Plateau,China

The flow–sediment relationship is important to understand the soil erosion and land degradation processes in severe eroded areas. This study researches on variations of streamflow, sediment load, and flow–sediment relationship on multi‐temporal scales (annual, flood season and, monthly scales) in a highly erodible catchment of Chinese Loess Plateau. The results demonstrated that the streamflow, sediment load, sediment concentration, runoff coefficient, and sediment coefficient all experienced evident reductions, and the decrease in the middle and downstream stations was more significant compared with the upstream stations. The land use changes and implementation of soil and water conservation measures played major role for the streamflow and sediment load reductions with respect to precipitation change, and the runoff coefficient and sediment coefficient linearly decreased with the percentage of conservation measure area. The runoff‐sediment yield relationship on annual, flood season, and monthly scales could be generally characterized by the linear function, and the slopes during the post‐change period was lower than those during the pre‐change period of sediment load. The sediment concentration–streamflow discharge relationship represented consistent form over the entire study period, and the logarithmic function was appropriate to describe the relationships on the three timescales. The decrease of sediment concentration contributed greatest (60·7%) to sediment reduction compared with runoff productivity of rainfall (30·2%) and precipitation (9·1%). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昕水河流域径流变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应

开展流域尺度气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响研究是科学制定流域综合管理规划,并实现流域可持续管理的基础。以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的典型流域——昕水河流域为研究对象,结合流域多年(1958—2015年)气象水文数据,采用M-K趋势检验法分析年降水、年潜在蒸发散和年径流量的变化趋势,运用双累积曲线法分析年径流量序列的突变年份,并根据生态水文分析法与水量平衡原理定量解析流域尺度气候变化和人类活动对年径流的影响。结果表明:1958-2015年,流域年径流量变化呈显著下降趋势(Z=-5.84,p<0.0001),而降水(Z=-0.72,p=0.31)和潜在蒸散发(Z=-0.5,p=0.88)变化趋势不显著。双累积曲线法表明径流量突变点为1974年和2000年,其中,1975—2000年间影响径流减少的主要因素是气候变化,气候变化导致径流量减少的贡献率为73.14%,土地利用方式仅为26.86%;而2001—2015年土地利用变化是影响径流减少的主要原因,其贡献率高达103.81%,可见土地利用变化已成为昕水河流域径流量变化的主要驱动因素。在今后的流域治理中,需合理制定土地利用方案,实现昕水河流域水土资源协调发展。     

基于SWAT模型的西辽河流域自然湿地演变过程及驱动力分析

基于SWAT模型模拟、景观转换分析、地理探测器计算等方法，使用气象观测、数字高程模型、土地利用遥感监测、植被指数等数据，以西辽河流域为研究对象，划定流域边界，分析1980-2015年西辽河流域的面积变化和景观动态变化特征，研究自然和人为因素对湿地变化的驱动效应。结果表明：1980-2015年西辽河流域湖泊和沼泽面积均呈下降趋势，多数土地利用类型侵占过沼泽和湖泊，其中耕地侵占的面积最大；1980年以来西辽河流域经历了干-湿-干的变化过程，大部分时间为干生生境；2000-2015年西辽河流域沼泽湿地生长季NDVI（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）平均为0.30，年GPP（Gross Primary Productivity）平均为257.73 g/(m2·a)，均呈极显著上升趋势；湖泊面积、沼泽湿地面积和径流深度的变化与降水量和蒸散量的相关关系极显著，NDVI和GPP与生长季积温的相关关系极显著；自然因素对湿地变化的影响要大于人为因素，降水量是西辽河流域湿地变化的主要控制因子，降水量和蒸散量的协同作用对湖泊、沼泽和径流深度变化的驱动能力q＞0.70。该研究可为湿地农业综合开发和可持续发展提供科学参考。     

黄土高原泾河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流产沙的影响

研究黄土高原流域水沙对气候和土地利用变化的响应机理,对生态调控决策制定及区域水土保持措施优化配置具有重要意义。以黄土高原泾河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平和双累积曲线等方法,定量分析了流域近40年降水、径流和输沙的演变规律及土地利用变化特征,探讨了流域气候和土地利用变化对流域水沙量的影响。结果表明:（1）泾河流域径流深和输沙模数年际均呈显著下降趋势,在20世纪80,90年代尤为明显;（2）泾河流域土地利用结构发生了重大变化,具体表现为坡耕地向梯田的转换、耕地向林地草地的转换和沙地裸地向草地灌丛的转换;（3）人类活动影响下的土地利用变化对径流泥沙贡献率分别为82.90%,94.10%,气候因素影响很小。     

黄土高原藉河流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应

[目的]揭示黄土高原区中尺度流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应规律,为合理解决流域水资源利用和实现水资源的可持续管理提供理论支撑。[方法]以黄土高原藉河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall检验、距平累积曲线、双累积曲线以及分离评判法等方法进行研究。[结果](1)1962—2010年藉河流域年降雨呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不显著(p0.05);流域年径流深呈显著下降趋势(p0.001),且在1985年发生减少突变;(2)坡耕地面积减少,梯田面积增加是研究时段内流域土地利用变化的最明显特征。[结论]研究时段内土地利用变化是藉河流域径流量减少的主要驱动因素,影响贡献率为90.2%,而气候变化影响较小,贡献率仅为9.8%。     

基于SWAT模型的长江源土地利用/土地覆被情景变化对径流影响研究

土地利用/土地覆被变化对流域水资源循环过程及配置影响显著。为了研究土地利用/土地覆被情景变化对径流影响情况,以长江源流域为例,构建了适合该流域的分布式水文模型(SWAT),并模拟了不同土地利用/土地覆被情景下的流域年均径流量和径流深。模拟结果如下:当流域林地和草地面积增加到最大,径流量减少了16.7%,达到304.12m3/s,径流深减少14.02mm;当林地和草地面积减少,并逐步变为沙地、裸地,流域径流量增加16.1%,达到424.32m3/s,径流深也增加了13.49mm;当林地和草地面积减少到无植被覆盖,将使流域径流量增加28.4%,达到469.67m3/s,径流深增加23.88mm;在草地覆被最佳状况下,径流量有所增加,但增加幅度不大,只有5.6%,达到385.98m3/s,径流深增加4.72mm。综上所述,长江源流域林地和草地面积增加,导致径流减少,而沙地和裸地面积增加导致径流量增加。     

Human and climatic drivers of land and water use from 1997 to 2019 in Tarim River basin,China

Climate and human activities change spatial and temporal distribution of water and land use. The Tarim River, the largest inland river in China, faced a long-term exploitation of land and water over a rapid economic development. We analyzed land and water use from 1997 to 2019 in Tarim River Basin by Landsat images, and data on hydrology, climate, population, economy and PM_2.5 (air particulate matter ≤2.5 μm). Agricultural land expanded the fastest (4–11%), followed by natural vegetation (15–16%) and water area (4–5%) with population and economic increase. Air quality (PM_2.5 μg m⁻³) improved in upper (62–27) and middle (48–17) reaches. The water area in lower increase 5% because of ecological water delivery since 2000. Land use in the lower reach was dominated by agriculture, where the downstream runoff consumption increased by 6.8 times. The average annual air temperature and precipitation gradually increased by 0.5 °C and 51 mm in source and 0.9 °C and 30 mm in main reaches. The average annual water consumption in upper and middle reaches was 4 × 10⁹ m³, accounting for 87% of input runoff in the main reach. Water consumption in middle reach increased by 33 times in 2009–2017. The industry structure was changing from primary to secondary and tertiary industry. To sum up, implementation of water saving strategies and ecological water delivery restored local ecology. Sustainable strategies should be applied facing industrialization. Furthermore, changing the industry structure and restoring the degraded farmlands to grasslands or forests would keep sustainability of Tarim River Basin.     

Land Cover Transition in Northern Tanzania

Land conversion in sub‐Saharan Africa has profound biophysical, ecological, political and social consequences for human well‐being and ecosystem services. Understanding the process of land cover changes and transitions is essential for good ecosystem management policy that would lead to improved agricultural production, human well‐being and ecosystems health. This study aimed to assess land cover transitions in a typical semi‐arid degraded agro‐ecosystems environment within the Pangani river basin in northern Tanzania. Three Landsat images spanning over 30 years were used to detect random and systematic patterns of land cover transition in a landscape dominated by crop and livestock farming. Results revealed that current land cover transition is driven by a systematic process of change dominated by the following: (i) transition from degraded land to sparse bushland (10·8%); (ii) conversion from sparse bushland to dense bushland in lowland areas (6·0%); (iii) conversion from bushland to forest (4·8%); and (iv) conversion from dense bushland to cropland in the highlands (4·5%). Agricultural lands under water harvesting technology adoption show a high degree of persistence (60–80%) between time slices. This suggests that there is a trend in land‐use change towards vegetation improvement in the catchment with a continuous increase in the adoption of water harvesting technologies for crop and livestock farming. This can be interpreted as a sign of agricultural intensification and vegetation regrowth in the catchment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use change in subalpine grassland soils: Effect on particulate organic carbon fractions and aggregation

Abandonment of mountain grassland often changes vegetation composition and litter quantity and quality, but related effects on labile soil organic matter (SOM) are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of grassland management and abandonment on soil carbon distribution in light (< 1.6 g cm^–3) particulate organic matter (POM) and aggregation along a gradient of management intensity including hay meadows, pastures, and abandoned grasslands. The reduction of management intensity is an interregional phenomenon throughout the European Alps. We therefore selected sites from two typical climate regions, namely at Stubai Valley, Austria (MAT: 3°C, MAP: 1097 mm) and Matsch Valley, Italy (MAT: 6.6°C, MAP: 527 mm), to evaluate effects of land‐use change in relation to climate. Free water‐floatable and free POM (wPOM, fPOM), and an occluded POM fraction (oPOM), were isolated from three water‐stable aggregate size classes (2–6.3 mm, 0.25–2 mm, < 0.25 mm) using density fractionation. Aggregate mean weight diameter slightly decreased with decreasing management intensity. In contrast to absolute POM‐C, fPOM‐C increased in aggregates at both sites with abandonment. Because the oPOM‐C was less affected by abandonment, the ratio of oPOM‐C : fPOM‐C shifted from > 1 to < 1 from meadow to abandoned grassland in aggregates at both sites and thus independent of climate. This suggests that in differently managed mountain grasslands free and occluded POM are functionally different SOM fractions. In bulk soil, the oPOM‐C : fPOM‐C ratio is better suited as an indicator for the response of SOM to management reduction in subalpine grasslands than the total soil C, absolute or relative POM‐C content.     

Consequences of feasible future agricultural land‐use change on soil organic carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in Great Britain

The aim of this study was to assess the consequences of feasible land‐use change in Great Britain on GHG emissions mainly through the gain or loss of soil organic carbon. We use estimates of per‐area changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with Great Britain (GB) county‐level scenarios of land‐use change based on historical land‐use patterns or feasible futures to estimate the impact of potential land‐use change between agricultural land‐uses. We consider transitions between cropland, temporary grassland (<5 yr under grass), permanent grass (>5 yr under grass) and forest. We show that reversion to historical land‐use patterns as present in 1930 could result in GHG emission reductions of up to ca. 11 Mt CO₂‐eq./yr (relative to a 2004 baseline), because of an increased permanent grassland area. By contrast, cultivation of 20% of the current (2004) permanent grassland area for crop production could result in GHG emission increases of up to ca. 14 Mt CO₂‐eq./yr. We conclude that whilst change between agricultural land‐uses (transitions between permanent and temporary grassland and cropland) in GB is likely to be a limited option for GHG mitigation, external factors such as agricultural product commodity markets could influence future land‐use. Such agricultural land‐use change in GB could have significant impacts on Land‐use, Land‐Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) emissions, with relatively small changes in land‐use (e.g. 5% plough out of grassland to cropland, or reversion of cropland to the grassland cover in Nitrate Vulnerable Zones of 1998) having an impact on GHG emissions of a similar order of magnitude as the current United Kingdom LULUCF sink. In terms of total UK GHG emissions, however, even the most extreme feasible land‐use change scenarios account for ca. 2% of current national GHG emissions.     

The Impact of Development Plans on Hydrological Changes in the Shazand Watershed,Iran

Development plans are mainly responsible for population changes and the conversion of forest and rangelands into agricultural lands and human settlements. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of population and land use changes are necessary to assess the impacts of change on hydrological processes. However, such important issues have been less considered worldwide particularly in developing countries. Therefore, we selected the Shazand Watershed (1740 km²) because of rapid industrialization to track the effects of land use and population changes on streamflow and sediment yield. The data were collected from statistical yearbooks and satellite imageries from 1973 to 2008. All available measurements on discharge and suspended sediment concentration at the Pole doab hydrological station were also collected. The study was conducted for the whole period, as well as the pre‐1991 and post‐1991 as a basis for the economic development growth in the region. We found that the land use and population changes have occurred in the Shazand Watershed, especially in the vicinity of industrial zones. The results showed that the cities, industrial zones, roads, and bare lands quickly increased from 58 · 8 to 134 · 3 km² during post‐1991. The flow durations, sediment rating curves and trend analyses indicated distinct variations in the relationship between streamflow and sediment and also caused changes within different periods. Based on the results, the mean annual flow and sediment yield in post industrialization (1991–2008) were respectively 0 · 84 and 1 · 19 times of those for pre‐industrialization period and the annual sediment yield increased from 25,000 to 29,850 Mg. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Change in soil organic carbon following the ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ programme in China

Agricultural soils are considered to have great potential for carbon sequestration through land‐use change. In this paper, we compiled data from the literatures and studied the change in soil organic carbon (SOC) following the ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ Programme (GGP, i.e., conversion from farmland to plantation, secondary forests and grasslands) in China. The results showed that SOC stocks accumulated at an average rate of 36·67 g m⁻² y⁻¹ in the top 20 cm with large variation. The current SOC storage could be estimated using the initial SOC stock and year since land use transformation (Adjusted R² = 0·805, p = 0·000). After land use change, SOC stocks decreased during the initial 4–5 years, followed by an increase after above ground vegetation restoration. Annual average precipitation and initial SOC stocks had a significant effect (p < 0·05) on the rate of change in SOC, while no significant effects were observed between plantation and natural regeneration (p > 0·05). The ongoing ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ project might make significant contribution to China's carbon sequestration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土地利用和气候变化对黄土区典型流域水沙变化的影响

为了探究土地利用和气候变化对黄土高原地区水沙情势的影响,选择生态恢复效果非常显著的汾河上游岚河流域为研究区域,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、滑动t检验法和YAMAMOTO指数法对该流域1955—2018年的年降水量、年径流量和年输沙量进行变化趋势分析和突变检验,在此基础上,利用径流/输沙历时曲线分析黄土高原生态恢复背景下流域水沙的演变规律,并根据双累积曲线法定量评价土地利用和气候变化对流域水沙变化的贡献程度。结果表明:岚河流域年降水量在1955—2018年期间呈现不显著的增加趋势,而同时期年径流量、年输沙量均呈现极显著的减少趋势,年均减少率分别为0.65 mm和38.95 t/km²,并均在1983年和1999年附近发生突变,具有较好的水沙变化同步性。与基准期(1955—1982年)相比,水土保持效应期(1983—1998年)的年均径流量减少29.07 mm,年均输沙量减少5917.88 t/km²,退耕还林效应期(1999—2018年)两者相应减少33.18 mm和6967.34 t/km²,而分析径流和输沙历时曲线发现流域丰水期、平水期和枯水期径流量和输沙量均呈现减少趋势,且输沙量的减少程度大于径流量的减少程度。流域水土保持效应期土地利用变化对减水减沙的贡献率分别为83.21%和83.52%,退耕还林效应期土地利用变化对减水减沙的贡献率分别为117.88%和103.48%。由此可见,各时期土地利用变化是流域水沙变化的主导因素,而气候变化对流域水沙变化影响较小。在全球气候变化的大背景下,通过调整流域土地利用结构、优化土地利用方式,开展以植被恢复为主的水土保持措施,是实现黄土高原水土流失治理及生态保护的根本途径。     

基于SWAT模型的丹江流域土地利用变化对径流影响研究

为定量分析土地利用类型变化对径流的影响,基于SWAT模型,通过分析丹江流域近20年来的土地利用变化,并设置3种不同土地利用情景模式,探究了土地利用类型对流域径流的影响作用。结果表明:SWAT模型率定期和验证期的决定性系数R²和纳什效率系数NS分别为0.8,0.73和0.86,0.78,适用于丹江流域径流模拟。2000—2020年,丹江流域土地利用变化引起的径流变化为-0.18%; 情景1中,把林地、草地全变为耕地的情况下,模拟的年均径流变化率为61.65%,情景2中,把耕地和草地全转换为林地的情况下,模拟的年均径流变化率为-12.69%,情景3中,把耕地和林地全转换为草地的情况下,模拟的年均径流变化率为24.24%。耕地对径流深度的影响系数为0.26 mm/hm²,林地对径流深度的影响系数为-13.35 mm/hm²,草地对径流深的影响系数为-0.01 mm/hm²。由此得出,耕地对产流起促进作用,草地和林地对产流起抑制作用。为维护丹江流域生态环境,增强丹江流域径流供给,应科学开发耕地资源。     

嘉陵江流域下游地表径流对土地利用变化的响应

近年来,嘉陵江流域下游发展迅速,流域内的土地利用发生了较大变化,下垫面的变化影响了流域的地表径流。在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,通过解译1993年、2004年、2014年嘉陵江流域下游的遥感影像,获得了该流域不同时期的土地利用情况,并在此基础上,运用分布式水文模型的SCS模型模拟地表径流,分析了嘉陵江流域下游地表径流对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明:（1）1993—2014年,嘉陵江流域下游土地利用以耕地转出为主,耕地是研究区唯一减少的土地利用类型,而且减少量较大,居民点及工矿用地和草地以转入为主,其他用地的空间转移较为复杂;（2）以汛期6月份的累年平均降水量190 mm作为嘉陵江流域下游的降水量,土地利用类型综合产流能力1993年 > 2004年 > 2014年,径流系数分别为0.699,0.671,0.668,在空间分布上南部地区 > 中部地区 > 北部地区;（3）研究区不同类型土地利用的产流情况与土地利用类型面积相关联,当土地利用—土壤组面积发生变化时,其对应的产流能力也会发生变化,进而影响地表径流。     

Carbon Life Cycle Assessment for Prairie as a Crop in Reclaimed Mine Land

A life cycle assessment with carbon (C) as the reference unit was used to balance the benefits of land preparation practices of establishing tall‐grass prairies as a crop for reclaimed mine land with reduced environmental damage. Land preparation and management practices included disking with sub‐soiling (DK‐S), disking only (DK), no tillage (NT), and no tillage with grazing (NT‐G). To evaluate the C balance and energy use of each of the land preparations, an index of sustainability (I_s = C_O/C_I, Where: C_O is the sum of all outputs and C_I is the sum of all inputs) was used to assess temporal changes in C. Of the four land preparation and management practices, DK had the highest I_s at 8·53. This was due to it having the least degradation of soil organic carbon (SOC) during land‐use change (−730 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) and second highest aboveground biomass production (9,881 kg ha⁻¹). The highest aboveground biomass production occurred with NT (11,130 kg ha⁻¹), although SOC losses were similar to DK‐S, which on average was 2,899 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. The I_s values for NT and DK‐S were 2·50 and 1·44, respectively. Grazing from bison reduced the aboveground biomass to 8,971 kg ha⁻¹ compared with NT with no grazing, although stocking density was low enough that I_s was still 1·94. This study has shown that converting from cool‐season forage grasses to tall‐grass prairie results in a significant net sink for atmospheric CO₂ 3 years after establishment in reclaimed mine land, because of high biomass yields compensating for SOC losses from land‐use change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候和土地利用变化对潮白河流域径流变化的定量影响

为量化气候和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响,该文以华北土石山区潮白河流域为研究对象,利用AWY(annual water yield)模型及分离评判法定量分析了1956-2010年气候和土地利用变化对流域年径流的影响。结果表明:研究时段内,潮白河流域年降水量和年径流量呈显著下降趋势;流域年径流量在1979年发生减少突变;气候变化是潮河、白河流域年径流减少的主要原因,贡献率分别为59.3%和93.5%;土地利用变化贡献率相对较小,分别为40.7%和6.5%;不同土地利用类型对流域年径流变化的影响差异较大:林地对径流变化贡献率平均达到67%,耕地和草地分别为18%和15%,水域、未利用地因所占面积比例小,与流域年径流变化相关性并不显著。研究结果可为流域内水土资源规划及管理提供参考。