Unintended consequences of climate-adaptive fisheries management targets

Climate change is projected to affect the productivity of global fisheries. Management based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been effective at eliminating overfishing in many regions. However, continuing to use yield-maximizing targets under climate-driven changes in productivity can result in higher anthropogenic pressure on populations subject to climate-related stress than maintaining status quo management targets. We demonstrate this effect using a theoretical example and case studies from snow crab in the eastern Bering Sea and a global marine fisheries database. In these examples, the conservation gain (i.e. biomass in the ocean) of maintaining status quo management targets is larger than the small gain in harvest made through climate adaptation in MSY-based management. The aggregate conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. Instead of climate-adaptive MSY-based targets, new management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems of populations displaying non-stationary productivity.     

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world's least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world's poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world's fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.     

Freshwater eels: A symbol of the effects of global change

Temperate eels Anguilla anguilla (European eel), A. rostrata (American eel) and A. japonica (Japanese eel) are three catadromous species which have been declining since the 1970s/1980s despite their remarkable adaptive capacity. Because of their specific life cycles, which share distant oceanic spawning grounds and continental growth stage, eels are affected by five components of the global change: (a) climate change affecting larval survival and drift, (b) an increase in pollution leading to high levels of contamination exacerbated by their high lipid levels, (c) increasing fragmentation and habitat loss that reduce dramatically the amount of available habitats and induce increased spawner mortality, (d) the appearance of Anguillicola crassus a parasitic alien nematode that impairs spawning success, and (e) the impact of commercial and recreational fisheries for all life stages of eel. In this context, the rapid increases of pressures during the “Great Acceleration” have surpassed the adaptive capacity of eels. This illustrates that cumulative effects of global change can lead to the collapse of species, even in species that have amazingly high adaptive capacities.     

Transform high seas management to build climate resilience in marine seafood supply

Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global‐scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around ?6%) from ‘business‐as‐usual’. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on snakehead fish value chains in the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam

ABSTRACT

The productive fisheries of the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam are essential to the food security and nutrition of 60 million people. Yet these fisheries, both culture and capture, are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. This article reports on a study undertaken to examine the vulnerability, as perceived by snakehead (Channa striata) fish farmers in Vietnam and fishers in Cambodia, to the impacts from climate change. Perceived impacts on various actors in the value chain are identified, as well as adaptation strategies currently being utilized and planned for the future. Recommendations are suggested to contribute to assisting snakehead farmers and fishers in adapting and preparing for the impacts of climate change.     

Using scenarios to project the changing profitability of fisheries under climate change

Over‐exploitation and economic underperformance are widespread in the world's fisheries. Global climate change is further affecting the distribution of marine species, raising concern for the persistence of biodiversity and presenting additional challenges to fisheries management. However, few studies have attempted to extend bioclimatic projections to assess the socio‐economic impacts of climate‐induced range shifts. This study investigates the potential implications of changes in relative environmental suitability and fisheries catch potential on UK fisheries by linking species distribution modelling with cost‐benefit analyses. We develop scenarios and apply a multimodel approach to explore the economic sensitivity of UK fisheries and key sources of uncertainty in the modelling procedure. We projected changes in maximum potential catch of key species and the resulting responses in terms of net present value (NPV) over a 45‐year period under scenarios of change in fuel price, discount rate and government subsidies. Results suggest that total maximum potential catch will decrease within the UK EEZ by 2050, resulting in a median decrease in NPV of 10%. This value decreases further when trends of fuel price change are extrapolated into the future, becoming negative when capacity‐enhancing subsidies are removed. Despite the variation in predictions from alternative models and data input, the direction of change in NPV is robust. This study highlights key factors influencing future profitability of UK fisheries and the importance of enhancing adaptive capacity in UK fisheries.     

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social-ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.     

Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe's fish and shellfish

An amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish.     

Eight urgent,fundamental and simultaneous steps needed to restore ocean health,and the consequences for humanity and the planet of inaction or delay

1. The ocean crisis is urgent and central to human wellbeing and life on Earth; past and current activities are damaging the planet's main life support system for future generations. We are witnessing an increase in ocean heat, disturbance, acidification, bio‐invasions and nutrients, and reducing oxygen levels. Several of these act like ratchets: once detrimental or negative changes have occurred, they may lock in place and may not be reversible, especially at gross ecological and ocean process scales.
2. Each change may represent a loss to humanity of resources, ecosystem function, oxygen production and species. The longer we pursue unsuitable actions, the more we close the path to recovery and better ocean health and greater benefits for humanity in the future.
3. We stand at a critical juncture and have identified eight priority issues that need to be addressed in unison to help avert a potential ecological disaster in the global ocean. They form a purposely ambitious agenda for global governance and are aimed at informing decision‐makers at a high level. They should also be of interest to the general public.
4. Of all the themes, the highest priority is to rigorously address global warming and limit surface temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, as warming is the pre‐eminent factor driving change in the ocean. The other themes are establishing a robust and comprehensive High Seas Treaty, enforcing existing standards for Marine Protected Areas and expanding their coverage, especially in terms of high levels of protection, adopting a precautionary pause on deep‐sea mining, ending overfishing and destructive fishing practices, radically reducing marine pollution, putting in place a financing mechanism for ocean management and protection, and lastly, scaling up science/data gathering and facilitating data sharing.
5. By implementing all eight measures in unison, as a coordinated strategy, we can build resilience to climate change, help sustain fisheries productivity, particularly for low‐income countries dependent on fisheries, protect coasts (e.g. via soft‐engineering/habitat‐based approaches), promote mitigation (e.g. carbon storage) and enable improved adaptation to rapid global change.

     

Species range shifts along multistressor mosaics in estuarine environments under future climate

Range shifts are a key mechanism that species employ in response to climate change. Increasing global temperatures are driving species redistributions to cooler areas along three main spatial axes: increasing latitudes, altitudes and water depths. Climate‐mediated range shift theory focuses on temperature as the primary ecological driver, but global change alters other environmental factors as well, and these rarely work in isolation. Ecosystems are often characterized as mosaics of overlapping environmental stressors, resulting in temporal and spatial heterogeneity which differs between stable, low complexity mosaics (e.g. open ocean) and highly variable, highly complex mosaic environments (e.g. estuaries). We propose a multistressor mosaic of climate‐mediated species range shift across abiotic environmental gradients, typical for mobile species (e.g. fish) in variable coastal environments. We conceptualize how climate‐driven changes in salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH can drive redistribution of estuarine species in a future world. Non‐thermal drivers are a critical component of species range shifts and when not considered, underestimate the impact of global change on species populations and ecosystem services.     

气候变化对东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼渔获量的影响

为了探讨气候变化对智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)渔获量的长期影响, 采集 1900—2016 年北大西洋涛动

(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)、太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)、厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)等 8 个

低频气候变化参数, 全球海气温度异常指标时间序列数据和 1970—2016 年东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼总渔获量数据,

在对其进行相关性分析的基础上, 运用 BP 神经网络模型构建了东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼渔获量预测模型, 并以效率

系数为评价规则对预测模型进行评价, 进而得到了最优预测模型。最后对最优预测模型进行了因子敏感性分析, 提

取了对东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)影响较大的因子。最优预测模型拟合效果显示, 渔获量拟合值与

观测值有基本一致的变化趋势, 两个序列的线性相关系数为 0.745, 模型拟合效果良好。最优模型因子敏感性分析

表明, 在研究期间, 影响东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼渔获量的气候变化表征因子主要为北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛

动和北太平洋指数。     

12.

Guidelines for incorporating fish distribution shifts into a fisheries management context     

Jason S Link  Janet A Nye  Jonathan A Hare 《Fish and Fisheries》2011,12(4):461-469

The impacts of climate change have been demonstrated to influence fisheries resources. One way climate has affected fish stocks is via persistent shifts in spatio‐temporal distribution. Although examples of climate‐forced distribution shifts abound, it is unclear how these shifts are practically accounted for in the management of fish stocks. In particular, how can we take into account shifting stock distribution in the context of stock assessments and their management outputs? Here, we discuss examples of the types of fish stock distribution shifts that can occur. We then propose a decision tree framework of how shifting stock distributions can be addressed. Generally, the approaches for addressing such shifts fall into one of three main alternatives: re‐evaluate stock identification, re‐evaluate a stock unit area, or implement spatially explicit modelling. We conclude by asserting that the approach recommended here is feasible with existing information and as such fisheries managers should be able to begin addressing the role of changes in stock distribution in these fish stocks. The implications of not doing so could be notably undesirable.     

13.

The impact of methodological choices on the outcome of national‐level climate change vulnerability assessments: An example from the global fisheries sector          下载免费PDF全文

Iris Monnereau  Robin Mahon  Patrick McConney  Leonard Nurse  Rachel Turner  Henri Vallès 《Fish and Fisheries》2017,18(4):717-731

Climate change vulnerability assessments have been receiving increasing attention from policymakers and academics. Given scarce funds for adaptation, the UNFCCC Secretariat has suggested that eligible countries be prioritized for support based on their vulnerability to climate change. National‐level fisheries sector climate change vulnerability assessments as well as other overall vulnerability assessments to date have lent support to the idea that least developed countries (LDCs) are more vulnerable to climate change than small island developing states (SIDS) and other coastal countries. We demonstrate that these perceived differences in vulnerability among country groups are partly due to methodological choices made during these assessments. We argue that national‐level vulnerability assessments, and particularly those dealing with the fisheries sector, often suffer from four main methodological shortcomings: (i) an inconsistent representation of countries belonging to each group, (ii) use of socioeconomic indicators that are not scaled to population size, (iii) use of a small number of indicators and (iv) lack of accounting for potential redundancy among indicators. Building on a previous framework, we show that by addressing the four aforementioned methodological shortcomings, the ranking in fisheries sector vulnerability among SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries is altered significantly. Our results underscore that the vulnerability of SIDS was partially concealed in previous assessments and suggest that SIDS are in fact the most vulnerable group. Although this study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the fisheries sector to climate change in SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries, the implications also apply to other sectors and country groupings.     

14.

Is fisheries production within Large Marine Ecosystems determined by bottom‐up or top‐down forcing?          下载免费PDF全文

Chris J Mcowen  William W L Cheung  Ryan R Rykaczewski  Reg A Watson  Louisa J Wood 《Fish and Fisheries》2015,16(4):623-632

Understanding the mechanisms driving fisheries production is essential if we are to accurately predict changes under climate change and exploit fish stocks in a sustainable manner. Traditionally, studies have sought to distinguish between the two most prominent drivers, ‘bottom‐up’ (resource driven) and ‘top‐down’ (consumer driven); however, this dichotomy is increasingly proving to be artificial as the relative importance of each mechanism has been shown to vary through space and time. Nevertheless, the reason why one predominates over another within a region remains largely unknown. To address this gap in understanding, we identified the dominant driver of commercial landings within 47 ecosystems, encompassing a wide range of biogeochemical conditions and fishing practices to elucidate general patterns. We show that bottom‐up and top‐down effects vary consistently with past fishing pressure and oceanographic conditions; bottom‐up control predominates within productive, overfished regions and top‐down in relatively unproductive and under‐exploited areas. We attribute these findings to differences in the species composition and oceanographic properties of regions, together with variation in fishing practices and (indicative) management effectiveness. Collectively, our analyses suggest that despite the complexity of ecological systems, it is possible to elucidate a number of generalities. Such knowledge could be used to increase the parsimony of ecosystem models and to move a step forward in predicting how the global ocean, particularly fisheries productivity, will respond to climate change.     

15.

The ecology of fish in the surf zones of ocean beaches: A global review          下载免费PDF全文

Andrew D. Olds  Elena Vargas‐Fonseca  Rod M. Connolly  Ben L. Gilby  Chantal M. Huijbers  Glenn A. Hyndes  Craig A. Layman  Alan K. Whitfield  Thomas A. Schlacher 《Fish and Fisheries》2018,19(1):78-89

     

16.

Genetic population structure and variation at phenology-related loci in anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus)     

Rikke P. A. Madsen  Magnus W. Jacobsen  Kathleen G. O'Malley  Rasmus Nygaard  Kim Præbel  Bjarni Jónsson  Jose M. Pujolar  Dylan J. Fraser  Louis Bernatchez  Michael M. Hansen 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2020,29(1):170-183

The Arctic will be especially affected by climate change, resulting in altered seasonal timing. Anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) is strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) delimiting time periods available for foraging in the sea. Recent studies of salmonid species have shown variation at phenology-related loci associated with timing of migration and spawning. We contrasted genetic population structure at 53 SNPs versus four phenology-related loci among 15 anadromous Arctic char populations from Western Greenland and three outgroup populations. Among anadromous populations, the time period available for foraging at sea (>2°C) ranges from a few weeks to several months, motivating two research questions: (a) Is population structure compatible with possibilities for evolutionary rescue of anadromous populations during climate change? (b) Does selection associated with latitude or SST regimes act on phenology-related loci? In Western Greenland, strong isolation by distance at SNPs was observed and spatial autocorrelation analysis showed genetic patch size up to 450 km, documenting contingency and gene flow among populations. Outlier tests provided no evidence for selection at phenology-related loci. However, in Western Greenland, mean allele length at OtsClock1b was positively associated with the time of year when SST first exceeded 2°C and negatively associated with duration of the period where SST exceeded 2°C. This is consistent with local adaptation for making full use of the time period available for foraging in the sea. Current adaptation may become maladaptive under climate change, but long-distance connectivity of anadromous populations could redistribute adaptive variation across populations and lead to evolutionary rescue.     

17.

Consequences of changing climate and geomorphology for bioenergetics of juvenile sockeye salmon in a shallow Alaskan lake     

Jennifer R. Griffiths  Daniel E. Schindler 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2012,21(3):349-362

Abstract – In high northern latitudes, a wide range of geomorphic processes associated with fluvial, glacial and permafrost activity may interact with climate change to produce unexpected changes in lake thermal regimes with attendant effects on ecological processes. We coupled output from a hydrodynamics model of lake thermal structure to a bioenergetics model to assess how alternative scenarios of climate change, geomorphic evolution and habitat restoration in a shallow Alaskan lake may affect juvenile sockeye salmon bioenergetics and growth. In particular, we evaluated the metabolic costs of different thermal regimes and the potential for changes in consumption to offset those costs. Increased water temperatures associated with future climate increased metabolic costs which were partially offset if fish were able to maintain feeding rates, expressed as a constant proportion of maximum consumption. In this lake, water levels have declined substantially in the last 50 years. Simulated restored lake level had negligible effects on lake temperature and thus on sockeye salmon growth when compared to current conditions. Maintaining lake connectivity to inlet tributaries (cooling lake temperature) was crucial in reducing sockeye salmon metabolic costs particularly with further drops in lake level and climate warming. While considerable research is focused on predicting future thermal and geomorphic conditions in aquatic ecosystems, these processes are rarely considered together, especially for lakes. Understanding the biological responses to geomorphic–climate interactions will be required for developing scenarios for coping with ecosystem responses to global change and evaluating restoration alternatives, especially in high‐latitude systems that support economically and culturally important fisheries.     

18.

Marine social–ecological responses to environmental change and the impacts of globalization     

R Ian Perry  Rosemary E Ommer  Manuel Barange  Svein Jentoft  Barbara Neis  U Rashid Sumaila 《Fish and Fisheries》2011,12(4):427-450

Marine social–ecological systems consist of interactive ecological and human social elements so that changes in ecological systems affect fishing‐dependent societies and vice versa. This study compares the responses of marine ecological and fishing‐dependent systems to environmental change and the impacts of globalization, using four case‐studies: NE Atlantic (Barents Sea), NW Atlantic (Newfoundland), SE Atlantic (Namibia) and the equatorial Atlantic (Ghana). Marine ecological systems cope with short‐time changes by altering migration and distribution patterns, changing species composition, and changing diets and growth rates; over the longer term, adaptive changes lead to increased turn‐over rates and changes in the structure and function of the system. Fishing communities cope with short‐term change through intensification and diversification of fishing, migration and ‘riding out the storm’. Over the longer term, adaptive changes in policy and fisheries governance can interact with social–ecological change to focus on new fisheries, economic diversification, re‐training, out‐migration and community closures. Marine social–ecological systems can ultimately possess rapid adaptive capacity in their ecological components, but reduced adaptive capacity in society. Maintaining the diversity of response capabilities on short and longer time scales, among both ecological and human fishing systems, should be a key policy objective. The challenge is to develop robust governance approaches for coupled marine social–ecological systems that can respond to short‐ and long‐term consequences of global change.     

19.

Climate change and the future for coral reef fishes   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Philip L Munday  Geoffrey P Jones  Morgan S Pratchett  & Ashley J Williams 《Fish and Fisheries》2008,9(3):261-285

Climate change will impact coral-reef fishes through effects on individual performance, trophic linkages, recruitment dynamics, population connectivity and other ecosystem processes. The most immediate impacts will be a loss of diversity and changes to fish community composition as a result of coral bleaching. Coral-dependent fishes suffer the most rapid population declines as coral is lost; however, many other species will exhibit long-term declines due to loss of settlement habitat and erosion of habitat structural complexity. Increased ocean temperature will affect the physiological performance and behaviour of coral reef fishes, especially during their early life history. Small temperature increases might favour larval development, but this could be counteracted by negative effects on adult reproduction. Already variable recruitment will become even more unpredictable. This will make optimal harvest strategies for coral reef fisheries more difficult to determine and populations more susceptible to overfishing. A substantial number of species could exhibit range shifts, with implications for extinction risk of small-range species near the margins of reef development. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of how climate change will affect tropical marine fishes. Predictions are often based on temperate examples, which may be inappropriate for tropical species. Improved projections of how ocean currents and primary productivity will change are needed to better predict how reef fish population dynamics and connectivity patterns will change. Finally, the potential for adaptation to climate change needs more attention. Many coral reef fishes have geographical ranges spanning a wide temperature gradient and some have short generation times. These characteristics are conducive to acclimation or local adaptation to climate change and provide hope that the more resilient species will persist if immediate action is taken to stabilize Earth's climate.     

20.

Climate change alters fish community size‐structure,requiring adaptive policy targets          下载免费PDF全文

Ana M Queirós  José Fernandes  Lily Genevier  Christopher P Lynam 《Fish and Fisheries》2018,19(4):613-621

Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO₂ emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.     

Guidelines for incorporating fish distribution shifts into a fisheries management context

The impacts of climate change have been demonstrated to influence fisheries resources. One way climate has affected fish stocks is via persistent shifts in spatio‐temporal distribution. Although examples of climate‐forced distribution shifts abound, it is unclear how these shifts are practically accounted for in the management of fish stocks. In particular, how can we take into account shifting stock distribution in the context of stock assessments and their management outputs? Here, we discuss examples of the types of fish stock distribution shifts that can occur. We then propose a decision tree framework of how shifting stock distributions can be addressed. Generally, the approaches for addressing such shifts fall into one of three main alternatives: re‐evaluate stock identification, re‐evaluate a stock unit area, or implement spatially explicit modelling. We conclude by asserting that the approach recommended here is feasible with existing information and as such fisheries managers should be able to begin addressing the role of changes in stock distribution in these fish stocks. The implications of not doing so could be notably undesirable.     

The impact of methodological choices on the outcome of national‐level climate change vulnerability assessments: An example from the global fisheries sector

Climate change vulnerability assessments have been receiving increasing attention from policymakers and academics. Given scarce funds for adaptation, the UNFCCC Secretariat has suggested that eligible countries be prioritized for support based on their vulnerability to climate change. National‐level fisheries sector climate change vulnerability assessments as well as other overall vulnerability assessments to date have lent support to the idea that least developed countries (LDCs) are more vulnerable to climate change than small island developing states (SIDS) and other coastal countries. We demonstrate that these perceived differences in vulnerability among country groups are partly due to methodological choices made during these assessments. We argue that national‐level vulnerability assessments, and particularly those dealing with the fisheries sector, often suffer from four main methodological shortcomings: (i) an inconsistent representation of countries belonging to each group, (ii) use of socioeconomic indicators that are not scaled to population size, (iii) use of a small number of indicators and (iv) lack of accounting for potential redundancy among indicators. Building on a previous framework, we show that by addressing the four aforementioned methodological shortcomings, the ranking in fisheries sector vulnerability among SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries is altered significantly. Our results underscore that the vulnerability of SIDS was partially concealed in previous assessments and suggest that SIDS are in fact the most vulnerable group. Although this study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the fisheries sector to climate change in SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries, the implications also apply to other sectors and country groupings.     

Is fisheries production within Large Marine Ecosystems determined by bottom‐up or top‐down forcing?

Understanding the mechanisms driving fisheries production is essential if we are to accurately predict changes under climate change and exploit fish stocks in a sustainable manner. Traditionally, studies have sought to distinguish between the two most prominent drivers, ‘bottom‐up’ (resource driven) and ‘top‐down’ (consumer driven); however, this dichotomy is increasingly proving to be artificial as the relative importance of each mechanism has been shown to vary through space and time. Nevertheless, the reason why one predominates over another within a region remains largely unknown. To address this gap in understanding, we identified the dominant driver of commercial landings within 47 ecosystems, encompassing a wide range of biogeochemical conditions and fishing practices to elucidate general patterns. We show that bottom‐up and top‐down effects vary consistently with past fishing pressure and oceanographic conditions; bottom‐up control predominates within productive, overfished regions and top‐down in relatively unproductive and under‐exploited areas. We attribute these findings to differences in the species composition and oceanographic properties of regions, together with variation in fishing practices and (indicative) management effectiveness. Collectively, our analyses suggest that despite the complexity of ecological systems, it is possible to elucidate a number of generalities. Such knowledge could be used to increase the parsimony of ecosystem models and to move a step forward in predicting how the global ocean, particularly fisheries productivity, will respond to climate change.     

Genetic population structure and variation at phenology-related loci in anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus)

The Arctic will be especially affected by climate change, resulting in altered seasonal timing. Anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) is strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) delimiting time periods available for foraging in the sea. Recent studies of salmonid species have shown variation at phenology-related loci associated with timing of migration and spawning. We contrasted genetic population structure at 53 SNPs versus four phenology-related loci among 15 anadromous Arctic char populations from Western Greenland and three outgroup populations. Among anadromous populations, the time period available for foraging at sea (>2°C) ranges from a few weeks to several months, motivating two research questions: (a) Is population structure compatible with possibilities for evolutionary rescue of anadromous populations during climate change? (b) Does selection associated with latitude or SST regimes act on phenology-related loci? In Western Greenland, strong isolation by distance at SNPs was observed and spatial autocorrelation analysis showed genetic patch size up to 450 km, documenting contingency and gene flow among populations. Outlier tests provided no evidence for selection at phenology-related loci. However, in Western Greenland, mean allele length at OtsClock1b was positively associated with the time of year when SST first exceeded 2°C and negatively associated with duration of the period where SST exceeded 2°C. This is consistent with local adaptation for making full use of the time period available for foraging in the sea. Current adaptation may become maladaptive under climate change, but long-distance connectivity of anadromous populations could redistribute adaptive variation across populations and lead to evolutionary rescue.     

Consequences of changing climate and geomorphology for bioenergetics of juvenile sockeye salmon in a shallow Alaskan lake

Abstract – In high northern latitudes, a wide range of geomorphic processes associated with fluvial, glacial and permafrost activity may interact with climate change to produce unexpected changes in lake thermal regimes with attendant effects on ecological processes. We coupled output from a hydrodynamics model of lake thermal structure to a bioenergetics model to assess how alternative scenarios of climate change, geomorphic evolution and habitat restoration in a shallow Alaskan lake may affect juvenile sockeye salmon bioenergetics and growth. In particular, we evaluated the metabolic costs of different thermal regimes and the potential for changes in consumption to offset those costs. Increased water temperatures associated with future climate increased metabolic costs which were partially offset if fish were able to maintain feeding rates, expressed as a constant proportion of maximum consumption. In this lake, water levels have declined substantially in the last 50 years. Simulated restored lake level had negligible effects on lake temperature and thus on sockeye salmon growth when compared to current conditions. Maintaining lake connectivity to inlet tributaries (cooling lake temperature) was crucial in reducing sockeye salmon metabolic costs particularly with further drops in lake level and climate warming. While considerable research is focused on predicting future thermal and geomorphic conditions in aquatic ecosystems, these processes are rarely considered together, especially for lakes. Understanding the biological responses to geomorphic–climate interactions will be required for developing scenarios for coping with ecosystem responses to global change and evaluating restoration alternatives, especially in high‐latitude systems that support economically and culturally important fisheries.     

Marine social–ecological responses to environmental change and the impacts of globalization

Marine social–ecological systems consist of interactive ecological and human social elements so that changes in ecological systems affect fishing‐dependent societies and vice versa. This study compares the responses of marine ecological and fishing‐dependent systems to environmental change and the impacts of globalization, using four case‐studies: NE Atlantic (Barents Sea), NW Atlantic (Newfoundland), SE Atlantic (Namibia) and the equatorial Atlantic (Ghana). Marine ecological systems cope with short‐time changes by altering migration and distribution patterns, changing species composition, and changing diets and growth rates; over the longer term, adaptive changes lead to increased turn‐over rates and changes in the structure and function of the system. Fishing communities cope with short‐term change through intensification and diversification of fishing, migration and ‘riding out the storm’. Over the longer term, adaptive changes in policy and fisheries governance can interact with social–ecological change to focus on new fisheries, economic diversification, re‐training, out‐migration and community closures. Marine social–ecological systems can ultimately possess rapid adaptive capacity in their ecological components, but reduced adaptive capacity in society. Maintaining the diversity of response capabilities on short and longer time scales, among both ecological and human fishing systems, should be a key policy objective. The challenge is to develop robust governance approaches for coupled marine social–ecological systems that can respond to short‐ and long‐term consequences of global change.     

Climate change and the future for coral reef fishes

Climate change will impact coral-reef fishes through effects on individual performance, trophic linkages, recruitment dynamics, population connectivity and other ecosystem processes. The most immediate impacts will be a loss of diversity and changes to fish community composition as a result of coral bleaching. Coral-dependent fishes suffer the most rapid population declines as coral is lost; however, many other species will exhibit long-term declines due to loss of settlement habitat and erosion of habitat structural complexity. Increased ocean temperature will affect the physiological performance and behaviour of coral reef fishes, especially during their early life history. Small temperature increases might favour larval development, but this could be counteracted by negative effects on adult reproduction. Already variable recruitment will become even more unpredictable. This will make optimal harvest strategies for coral reef fisheries more difficult to determine and populations more susceptible to overfishing. A substantial number of species could exhibit range shifts, with implications for extinction risk of small-range species near the margins of reef development. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of how climate change will affect tropical marine fishes. Predictions are often based on temperate examples, which may be inappropriate for tropical species. Improved projections of how ocean currents and primary productivity will change are needed to better predict how reef fish population dynamics and connectivity patterns will change. Finally, the potential for adaptation to climate change needs more attention. Many coral reef fishes have geographical ranges spanning a wide temperature gradient and some have short generation times. These characteristics are conducive to acclimation or local adaptation to climate change and provide hope that the more resilient species will persist if immediate action is taken to stabilize Earth's climate.     

Climate change alters fish community size‐structure,requiring adaptive policy targets

Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO₂ emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.