Internal and external constraints of the Cuban production sector

This paper aims to explain the growth of the Cuban production sector between 1975 and 2014 by considering both demand and supply factors simultaneously. The research provides new empirical data on this topic through the application of a simultaneous equation model that considered the effect on the product of internal and external constraints most relevant to the Cuban economy, and the impacts of these over time. Its results confirm that the growth of the Cuban production sector was primarily limited by two factors: On the one hand, an overly centralized regulatory framework that reduces the global efficiency of the Cuban economy; and, on the other hand, a foreign exchange deficit that restricts its import capacity and the sustained growth of the Cuban capital stock. Therefore, the Cuban production sector's growth could be fostered by both a greater decentralization of its regulatory framework and the implementation of industrial and commercial policies geared to make Cuban exports more competitive.     

Foreign Industrial Exports and State Manufacturing Performance

ABSTRACT Foreign exports are claiming growing shares of US. state economic production. While growth of foreign exports is often cited as a driving force for state economic growth, little attention has been paid in prior research to the issue of Granger causality between foreign exports and economic performance at the state level. This study examines Granger causality between foreign manufacturing export growth and state manufacturing performance during the period from 1980 to 1991. Results indicate that, at the aggregate level, there is a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between foreign exports and state manufacturing activity. Among the individual industrial sectors, results are more mixed, however, with sectors displaying either export-led growth, reverse Granger causality, or in some instances, negative Granger causality.     

The relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic entrepreneurship: The impact and scale of investments in China

Both entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment (FDI) are frequently identified as being sources of local and regional economic growth. However, the relationship between the two is not always clear, with a negative competition effect and a positive demand effect potentially present. China provides an interesting case to study with its large state-owned sector, combined with a recent history of successfully attracting considerable FDI. This study examines the relationship between self-employment and different elements of foreign influence (FI) at a provincial level. The results imply that foreign investment reduces the level of self-employment, whilst the number of foreign enterprises and foreign exports have positive effects. The results therefore show the importance in considering multiple perspectives in terms of FI. It appears that policies that attract individual large investments suppress the development of domestic enterprise as predicted by the competition effect, but where more foreign enterprises are present, and a cluster starts to develop, a demand effect appears to take over. This means that provincial government policy may need to be more nuanced to avoid economies being highly reliant on a limited number of what might be quite footloose larger foreign employers.     

Government Policy and the Export Performance of the Mexican Automobile Industry

ABSTRACT This paper presents a historical perspective of growth of the Mexican automobile industry, focusing on the changing position of Third-World producers within the global motor vehicle industry. Both the impact of Mexican government policies directed toward increasing international competitiveness and that of adjustments made by transnational corporations to changes in technology and production methods are reviewed. Finally, a demand function that relates the proportion of the industry output that is exported to relative producer prices, Mexican and U.S. income, and government policy variables is estimated. The results of that analysis are consistent with the hypotheses that Mexican automotive sector exports are significantly related to (1) relative Mexico/U.S. producer prices, (2) income in the United States, and (3) changes in Mexican government export promotion policies initiated in 1983. These specific results, coupled with the global changes taking place in the industry, lead to the conclusion that Mexico can be expected to continue on its course toward fuller integration into the world motor vehicle industry as a producer of both finished vehicles and parts. While this would be a probable scenario even in the absence of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Agreement is likely to accelerate the growth of internationally competitive automotive sector production in Mexico.     

Research and development intensive clusters and regional competitiveness

Modern cluster theory provides reasons for positive external effects that accrue from the interaction of spatially proximate firms operating in common and related fields of economic activity. In this paper, we examine the impact of R&D-intensive clusters as a key factor of regional competitiveness on productivity growth. In relying on a hybrid approach of cluster identification, we examine effects of cluster specialization and diversity for a panel of German NUTS-3 regions in 2003–2019. After controlling for regional characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity, a robust cluster strength effect (i.e., specialization) on productivity growth is found within the context of conditional convergence across German regions. With regard to the underlying mechanisms, we find that the presence of multiple R&D-intensive clusters in specific technological fields is most strongly linked to higher levels of regional productivity growth. We also find that advantages from cluster specialization are strongest in key industrial sector such as automobile production, machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical products. Overall, our estimates particularly highlight the working of Marshallian externalities in productivity dynamics, while Jacobs-type spillovers tend to be partially realized. These findings indicate that some but not all cluster-based regional development strategies are promising policy tools to foster regional growth processes.     

中国李产业发展、贸易与国际竞争力分析

自2000 年以来,世界和中国的李生产、贸易和竞争力都有了新的变化。笔者以世界粮农组织（FAO）数据和相关文献为基础,分析了李生产和发展状况以及中国李产业在国际贸易中的竞争力。结果表明：世界李的收获面积和产量持续增加,且中国李的栽培面积和产量均居世界之首,然而单产却与智利、伊朗相比存在较大的差距。世界和中国李的进口和出口呈现平稳增长态势,但是中国李进口量和进口额远大于出口量和出口额。可比净出口指数、净出口显示性比较优势指数和进出口价格比分析都表明,中国李出口竞争力相对较差。针对中国李生产和贸易中存在的问题,提出了改善中国李产业发展和提高其国际竞争力的建议。     

祖国大陆对台湾农产品出口增长的影响因素分析

从分析影响因素出发,确定影响祖国大陆对台湾地区农产品出口额增长的主导因素,为促进两岸农产品贸易的发展提供决策依据,为加强双方在农产品贸易领域的合作提供政策建议。文章利用联合国粮农组织数据库、中国海关统计数据,运用恒定市场份额（CMS模型）分析方法,针对祖国大陆对台湾地区农产品出口增长的问题进行分析。结果表明：加入WTO后,祖国大陆对台湾地区农产品出口增长主要是受进口需求因素和出口竞争力因素的影响,而结构因素的影响则微不足道。通过分析,得出以下结论：增长的市场容量是祖国大陆对台湾地区农产品出口增长的一个重要因素,竞争力的下降导致出口增长不断减弱,祖国大陆对台湾地区市场未进行有效的开拓,两岸农产品贸易还有很大的增长潜力。     

基于GRNN算法的潜在产出与产出缺口估算模型

基于神经网络学习性、非参数估计的优势,建立估算经济潜在产出和产出缺口的广义回归神经网络（GRNN）模型,对中国产出缺口和潜在产出增速的1978—2015年数据进行估算、2016—2020年数据进行多步预测,实证分析较好地克服了生产函数法中由于事先假设确定的函数形式及选择不同函数结果不同的问题,并且所估算的潜在产出增速与经济增速具有较高的契合度。模型分析得出：中国经济增长速度大致维持在潜在产出增长率水平附近,便可实现通货膨胀率维持在合理水平,且较好地实现总体供需平衡的目的。     

中国罗非鱼产品出口贸易情况分析及展望

为了引导罗非鱼产业健康持续发展,分析了中国罗非鱼产品出口的基本情况、出口区域情况、出口目标国情况,并对罗非鱼的贸易发展趋势进行展望。分析显示,中国罗非鱼产品供应以国际市场为主。2002 年以来,对外贸易基本表现出良好的发展势头,但增长速度在逐步放缓。在国际市场需求的带动下,中国罗非鱼出口产品已转为以冻罗非鱼片为主,罗非鱼出口省份有广东、海南、广西和福建4 个省份,这4 个省份的出口产品也基本以冻罗非鱼片为主。中国罗非鱼最大的出口国是美国,出口目标国的增加也代表着中国罗非鱼市场正趋于多元化。与此同时,中国罗非鱼在未来发展面临着很多问题,如贸易竞争国竞争力的提高、贸易竞争品种对有限市场的挤占、严峻的国际环境对罗非鱼产业的考验等。罗非鱼产业的持续稳定发展必然要依靠国内外市场的开拓、产品品质的提升和营销渠道的构建等。     

中国与泰国农产品贸易竞争性和互补性研究

泰国是中国的友好邻邦,农产品贸易合作不断深化。2016年,泰国农业和合作部推动大面积种植计划,大幅度提高粮食产量,势必对农产品进出口产生影响。在新形势下对中国与泰国农产品贸易特征进行研究,可以为农业部门对外贸易决策提供依据。研究结果表明：2006年至2015年,中国与泰国农产品贸易额不断扩大,蔬菜、水果、水产品、棉花、谷物、糖类的贸易量较大;中国农产品的RCA指数全部小于1,泰国农产品的RCA指数全部大于1;中国农产品出口对泰国农产品进口的TCI指数均小于1,2008年至2015年泰国农产品出口对中国农产品进口的TCI指数均大于1。     

21世纪以来世界猕猴桃产业发展以及我国猕猴桃贸易与国际竞争力分析

进入21世纪以来,世界和中国的猕猴桃生产、贸易和竞争力都有了新的变化。本文以世界粮农组织（FAO）数据和相关文献为基础,分析了猕猴桃生产和发展情况以及我国猕猴桃贸易和竞争力。世界猕猴桃的收获面积和产量持续增加,我国猕猴桃产业得到了迅速发展,栽培面积和产量均居世界第一。单产与新西兰相比存在较大的差距。世界和我国猕猴桃的进口和出口呈现平稳增长态势,但是中国猕猴桃进口量和进口额远大于出口量和出口额。中国猕猴桃出口竞争力很差甚至极差水平上,在国际猕猴桃果市场上中国出口猕猴桃果品质中等偏低。针对中国猕猴桃生产和贸易中存在的问题,本文提出了改善中国猕猴桃产业发展和提高国际竞争力的措施。     

FIJI Water,water everywhere: Global brands and democratic and social injustice

Over recent decades, the demand for bottled water has grown exponentially at the global scale. In the marketing of such products, discourses of purity and paradise have often been invoked. Marketed as a ‘Taste of Paradise’, FIJI Water has gained enormous international success as an ostensibly clean and green product. Celebrity endorsements – reaching as high as US President Barack Obama – have abounded, driven in part by the belief that the corporation is both environmentally and socially responsible. This paper describes and analyses the rise of FIJI water and critically assesses the sources and impacts of its economic success. It goes on to explore its local social and environmental impacts in the context of a country that has been subject to waves of democratic crises where the fate of the polity has been influenced by FIJI Water's actions. FIJI Water has come to assume the role of development trustee in the villages most affected by the growth in exports. The democratic crises in Fiji has given FIJI Water profound developmental influence, and this has brought both costs and benefits at the local socio‐environmental scale.     

基于马尔可夫模型的吉林市土地利用变化预测

基于马尔可夫模型预测的方法,来研究吉林市土地利用结构变化研究。对土地利用变化趋势进行了系统分析,基本掌握了其动态变化特征,构建了土地利用变化的驱动机制模型。马尔可夫预测模型结合起来,构建了土地需求量预测马尔可夫组合模型。分析了区域各土地类型的利用潜力。应用马尔可夫预测模型方法,进行了实证分析,预测了区域土地需求量;预测出影响区域土地和利用变化的主要驱动因素：土地利用结构调整、经济增长和人口增长,从而得出土地利用供求平衡的政策建议。研究结果表明马尔可夫预测模型是一种新的更有效的土地需求预测方法,影响吉林市土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是经济快速发展和政府决策等社会因素。     

“一带一路”背景下中俄农产品产业内贸易增长潜力分析

为深刻认识“一带一路”战略下中俄农产品贸易潜力,探究制约中俄农产品贸易增长的主要因素,基于2001—2013年UN Comtrade相关数据,对中俄农产品贸易的相似性、互补性和增长潜力进行实证分析。研究发现,市场需求引致效应是中俄农产品贸易增长的首要因素;出口结构效应制约了中国对俄农产品贸易增长,出口竞争力效应阻碍了俄罗斯对中农产品贸易增长。为此,中国可通过加强对俄信息交流、培育规模化农业经营主体等手段调整中国农产品供给结构,同时,中国应建立价格预警机制和预防机制以应对俄罗斯农产品供给价格和质量变动。     

Institutional frameworks and economic activity: A comparative analysis of regional economies in Thailand,Malaysia and the Philippines

Abstract: It is increasingly recognised that both formal and informal institutions could be important variables in explaining the diversity of capitalist systems. However, less is known about the relative importance of regional institutions for regional economic activity and regional development, especially in developing countries. This article analyses the relative importance of regional institutions to regional capitalist systems in Southeast Asia, using the comparative institutional approach of ‘business systems’. Two comparisons are made that enable an analysis of the relative importance of regional institutions: one between two regional economies in the same country (Cebu and Negros Oriental in the Philippines) and one between two bordering regional economies in different countries (Satun in Thailand and Perlis in Malaysia). We investigate four sets of economic institutions: the extent of alliance coordination of supply and demand, the extent of collaboration between competitors, the extent of alliance coordination of sectors and access to finance. The results suggest that regional economic institutions are stronger in agricultural areas with relatively weak national economic institutions and that the presence of strong and enabling regional economic institutions is one of the factors that lead to taking advantage of favourable agricultural conditions, to economic growth and, ultimately, to catching up.     

中部地区产业结构演变与经济增长关系研究

以1995-2009年统计数据为基础,利用偏离-份额分析法（SSM）重点探究了中部地区的产业结构演替与经济增长之间的关系,为各省调整产业结构、促进中部崛起提供理论指导。结果表明：1.中部地区产业结构变化总体与产业结构演进的一般规律相符。2.中部地区产业结构演替对经济发展的影响情况分为：江西和安徽产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为负;山西和河南产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为负;湖北和湖南产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为正等3种类型。3.产业结构变迁对各省经济增长的影响差异较大。     

Sustainable fisheries management in the resource periphery: The cases of Chile and New Zealand

Abstract: Chile and New Zealand both depend on their natural resource bases for their exports. This situation characterises the historical condition of the resource periphery. Despite similar processes of globalisation in their fisheries sectors since the 1970s, the ways in which public and private policies and management strategies have been brought to bear on sustaining the resource base differ considerably. In light of the strategic economic agreement between the two countries (and Singapore and Brunei) signed in 2005, these contrasts reveal that multiple options exist for countries in the resource periphery to enhance their national development by working with comparative advantages alongside competitive advantages introduced into the sector. Chile’s explosive growth in aquaculture and its low levels of public and private concern for more sustainable fisheries is contrasted with New Zealand’s more sustainable approach to natural resource management through a range of instruments and commitments. The principal conclusion is that resource periphery producers should capitalise on their natural assets, but only within the context of a sustainable strategy that promotes and enforces responsibility. The current crisis in global capture fisheries is both an opportunity and a warning in this regard.     

State Infrastructure and the Geography of Employment

ABSTRACT The effects of state public capital investment on economic growth is an important question that has been the focus of a recent substantial research effort. But the majority of this research has ignored these investments’influence on the intra-state pattern of economic activity. Yet if external agglomeration economies are important determinants of growth, then investments may indirectly affect growth by fostering or discouraging agglomeration. This paper discusses the effect of state infrastructure investments on the distribution of employment within states and the implications of these spatial effects for aggregate state employment growth. Preliminary empirical results suggest that state infrastructure investments tend to redistribute growth from areas of dense employment to other parts of the state. This redistribution may diminish agglomeration benefits offered by cities, which has the potential to reduce state growth. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications of the work for research and policy.     

四川农业经济动态变化过程与发展惯性

随着四川农业经济结构调整和市场化推进,分析农业结构调整效果和竞争力变化,对评价四川农业经济增长质量动态变化有重要意义。对1998-2007年的四川农业及各部门GDP数据按相邻两年分组,利用份额-偏离分析模型,计算份额分量、结构分量和竞争分量,利用效果指数法,计算结构效果指数和竞争效果指数,对结果数据的时间序列变化进行讨论,然后用移动平均法和G（1,1）分析各项指标的发展惯性。结果表明：1998-2007年的四川农业经济增长质量动态变化具有不稳定性,其中2002年、2003年、2004年和2007年的综合质量最好,种植业和牧业是影响农业结构调整与竞争力提升的关键部门;2009年农业结构与竞争力可能都处于良性状态,2009～2012年的农业结构效果和竞争效果高于全国平均水平,并有缓慢增强趋势。     

农产品质量安全及其国际竞争力评价

此文分析了质量安全内涵及其与农产品国际竞争力之间的关系,总结了当前农产品国际竞争力中质量安全因素的评价方法,并以中国出口欧盟农产品为例,指出质量及安全是影响中国农产品国际竞争力状况的关键因素,为农产品质量安全及其国际竞争力的系统评价提供了可行的研究框架。