A simple method for estimating MSY from catch and resilience

The Law of the Sea requires that fish stocks are maintained at levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, for most fish stocks, no estimates of MSY are currently available. Here, we present a new method for estimating MSY from catch data, resilience of the respective species, and simple assumptions about relative stock sizes at the first and final year of the catch data time series. We compare our results with 146 MSY estimates derived from full stock assessments and find excellent agreement. We present principles for fisheries management of data‐poor stocks, based only on information about catches and MSY.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

The relationship between fishing methods, fisheries management and the estimation of maximum sustainable yield

The allocation of effort among fishing gears is as important as controlling effort with respect to both sustainable yield and ecosystem management. Differences in age‐specific vulnerability to the fishing method can modify the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) that is obtainable from a fish stock. Different gears or methods are more or less selective for the species targeted, and MSY is rarely, if ever, attainable simultaneously for all species. The different fishing methods capture different types of nontarget species. Some methods will often be more profitable than others, and different user groups will prefer different methods. In many fisheries, it is unlikely that fishing can be limited to a single gear or method, so compromises among them will be required. Global MSY is discussed as a possible reference point for fisheries management. The yellowfin tuna fishery in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) shows all the above characteristics and is used to illustrate effort allocation among fishing methods.     

Size matters: How single-species management can contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management

In this study we show how substantial gains towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) can be achieved by different single-species management. We show that fishing has much less impact on stocks if fish are caught after they have reached the size (L_opt) where growth rate and cohort biomass are maximum. To demonstrate our point we compare the impact of three fishing scenarios on 9 stocks from the North Sea and the Baltic. Scenario (1) is the current fishing regime, scenario (2) is a new management regime proposed by the European Commission, aiming for maximum sustainable yield obtained from all stocks, and scenario (3) is set so that it achieves the same yield as scenario (2), albeit with fishing on sizes beyond L_opt. Results show that scenarios (2) and (3) are significant improvements compared to current fishing practice. However, scenario (3) consistently shows least impact on the stocks, with seven-fold higher biomass of demersal fishes and an age structure similar to an unfished stock. This allows juveniles and adults to better fulfil their ecological roles, a major step towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management. We give examples where scenario (3) is practiced in successful fisheries. We present a new interpretation of the relative yield per recruit isopleth diagram with indication of a new target area for fisheries operating within the context of EBFM. We present a new expression of the relative biomass per recruit isopleth diagram, which supports our analysis. We conclude that size matters for precautionary and ecosystem-based fisheries management and present a list of additional advantages associated with fishing at L_opt.     

基于CMSY和BSM的东海区重要渔业种类资源评估

有限数据方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及生物量等进行评估,已经成为全球区域性渔业管理组织和资源评估学者的关注热点。本研究采用基于渔获量的最大可持续渔获量(catch-based maximum sustainable yield,CMSY)和基于贝叶斯状态空间的Schaefer产量模型(Bayesian Schaefer production model,BSM)评估了东海区19个重要经济种类的资源状况,并提出了基于最大可持续渔获量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)的渔业管理建议。结果显示,19个种类中有1个种类衰竭,3个种类严重衰退,5个种类过度捕捞,5个种类轻度过度捕捞,5个种类健康。种群状态长期评估结果表明,处于生物可持续水平的鱼类种群占比已由1980年的95%下降至2019年的26%。同时对CMSY和BSM方法的结果进行了比较,整合单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)数据的BSM方法导致了置信区间较宽,并调节了生物量轨迹的变化形态...     

Multicriteria estimate of coral reef fishery sustainability

A holistic basis for achieving ecosystem‐based management is needed to counter the continuing degradation of coral reefs. The high variation in recovery rates of fish, corresponding to fisheries yields, and the ecological complexity of coral reefs have challenged efforts to estimate fisheries sustainability. Yet, estimating stable yields can be determined when biomass, recovery, changes in per area yields and ecological change are evaluated together. Long‐term rates of change in yields and fishable biomass‐yield ratios have been the key missing variables for most coral reef assessments. Calibrating a fishery yield model using independently collected fishable biomass and recovery data produced large confidence intervals driven by high variability in biomass recovery rates that precluded accurate or universal yields for coral reefs. To test the model's predictions, I present changes in Kenyan reef fisheries for >20 years. Here, exceeding yields above 6 tonnes km^?2 year^?1 when fishable biomass was ~20 tonnes/km² (~20% of unfished biomass) resulted in a >2.4% annual decline. Therefore, rates of decline fit the mean settings well and model predictions may therefore be used as a benchmark in reefs with mean recovery rates (i.e. r = 0.20–0.25). The mean model settings indicate a maximum sustained yield (MSY) of ~6 tonnes km^?2 year^?1 when fishable biomass was ~50 tonnes/km². Variable reported recovery rates indicate that high sustainable yields will depend greatly on maintaining these rates, which can be reduced if productivity declines and management of stocks and functional diversity are ineffective. A number of ecological state‐yield trade‐off occurs as abrupt ecological changes prior to biomass levels that produce MSY.     

Mismanagement of fisheries: Policy or science?

Several gadoids stocks in the Northeast Atlantic are currently considered as severely overexploited. A fast spreading paradigm is that conventional single-species fisheries management has failed and new approaches are needed. A crucial element of this “novel way of thinking” is the cheered move from conventional single-species management to ‘ecosystem-based management’ in order to assure sustainability in the long term. Here we showed that although conducted within a deterministic single stock modelling framework, and without invoking the ecosystem approach, scientific advice if applied, mirrors in stocks being in relative healthy state. We argue that managers and politicians have had the necessary scientific instruments for managing stocks and avoid stock collapses, but they failed as they tried to minimize the impact of policy on those who are most affected (i.e. the fishing industry) in a short-term perspective. Thus, our results strengthen the hypothesis that it is the practise of ignoring the scientific advice more than the advice itself that is to be blamed for the waste of former large marine resources. What we urgently need for securing marine ecosystems is not more data but immediate actions.     

MEY = MSY

It has been generally accepted for more than half a century that the fishing sector stood to gain from managing fisheries at the effort level producing maximum economic yield (MEY) rather than at the higher effort level producing maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, the acceptance is built on evaluating only the revenue and cost structure for the fishing fleet, not for the overall fishing sector including processing, distribution and marketing of fish products. Considering these links of the fish value chain moves the MEY-level closer to, but slightly below the MSY-level. For society as a whole, this means that MSY is the more appropriate target reference level.     

Reference points for predators will progress ecosystem‐based management of fisheries

Ecosystem‐based management of fisheries aims to allow sustainable use of fished stocks while keeping impacts upon ecosystems within safe ecological limits. Both the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets promote these aims. We evaluate implementation of ecosystem‐based management in six case‐study fisheries in which potential indirect impacts upon bird or mammal predators of fished stocks are well publicized and well studied. In particular, we consider the components needed to enable management strategies to respond to information from predator monitoring. Although such information is available in all case‐studies, only one has a reference point defining safe ecological limits for predators and none has a method to adjust fishing activities in response to estimates of the state of the predator population. Reference points for predators have been developed outside the fisheries management context, but adoption by fisheries managers is hindered a lack of clarity about management objectives and uncertainty about how fishing affects predator dynamics. This also hinders the development of adjustment methods because these generally require information on the state of ecosystem variables relative to reference points. Nonetheless, most of the case‐studies include precautionary measures to limit impacts on predators. These measures are not used tactically and therefore risk excessive restrictions on sustainable use. Adoption of predator reference points to inform tactical adjustment of precautionary measures would be an appropriate next step towards ecosystem‐based management.     

适用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估方法研究进展

开展渔业资源评估研究是制定渔业可持续发展策略的重要前提, 而数据有限是全球渔业资源评估面临的普遍挑战。传统资源评估方法具有数据需求量大、要求高等特点, 无法应用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估中。数据缺乏方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关历史生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及资源量等进行评估, 已经成为全球区域性渔业管理组织和资源评估学者的关注热点。本文在分析数据缺乏资源评估方法文献的基础上, 对近几年开发的数据缺乏评估方法模型结构、模型输入输出、假设以及不确定性来源和分析方法等进行了回顾和归纳, 同时对数据缺乏评估方法未来的研究重点和方向进行了展望。分析认为, 数据缺乏渔业资源评估研究仍处于发展阶段, 若渔获量和体长数据均可用, 则应考虑整合了两种类型数据的模型, 如 LIME (length-based integrated mixed effects, 基于体长的综合混合效应)模型和 SSS (simple stock synthesis, 简化资源整合) 模型。建议今后研究中应加强以下几个方面的工作: (1)积极开展长时间、多海域、全覆盖的渔业资源独立科学调查, 以获得具有代表性的样本数据; (2)对现有数据缺乏模型进一步优化, 综合考虑各种因素对评估结果的影响; (3) 进行完整、准确的基础生物学研究, 获得较为准确的历史生物学信息, 从而降低评估结果的不确定性; (4)开展基于渔获量模型和基于体长模型的模拟测试研究, 提高模型对统计偏差和数据质量问题的包容性。     

Fish stock assessment of the northern New Caledonian lagoons:3 – Fishing pressure,potential yields and impact on management options

The potential yields of demersal reefal and lagoonal finfish, which are valuable for trade or consumption in the Northern Province of New Caledonia, are unknown. Fishing pressure was estimated from tally-sheets of professional fishermen to assess trade fishing and a household consumption survey to assess subsistence fishing. Total yield was estimated to be 1 326 tonnes in 1995, 94 % of which correspond to subsistence fishing. Most of the catches were taken from the east and west coasts; in the north zone (Bélep Archipelago) catches were very low. From this fishing pressure and the total stock values, the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) was estimated to be 12 600 t, which was about 10 % of the total stocks assessed in the Northern Province (138 300 t). This MSY was dominated by five families, namely Lethrinidae, Acanthuridae, Scaridae, Serranidae and Lutjanidae. The results suggest that fishing effort in the Northern Province of New Caledonia could increase without endangering the stock. However, on a smaller geographical scale, some locations (Koné and Népoui on the west coast), reef habitats (near-reef areas) or species groups (fish caught by line) were already being intensively fished. Fishing techniques should be diversified so that part of the fishing effort be redirected toward the least heavily exploited groups of species and biotopes.     

基于生活史特征的数据有限条件下渔业资源评估方法比较

渔业资源评估是开展渔业资源管理,维系渔业可持续发展的基础工作。传统的渔业资源评估方法需要统计产量、资源丰度指数甚至年龄结构等大量数据,由于调查经费和数据的缺乏,全球仅1%的鱼种进行过系统性的资源评估。近年来,在数据有限(data-limited)条件下如何开展资源评估已日益成为学术界的关注热点。本文将基于生活史特征的评估方法分为仅需要生活史参数,需要产量数据和生活史参数,需要产量数据、生活史参数及体长或年龄数据等3大类,分别从方法、数据要求、输出结果及局限性进行了系统回顾分析,提供了关于生活史特征参数的常见估算方法,并就其中两种模型对北大西洋大青鲨(Prionace glauca)的可持续渔获量进行了初步评估与比较。最后,对数据缺乏模型的使用及模型在中国近海渔业资源评估中的运用提出了建议。     

An ecosystem-based assessment of the Korean blue crab trammel net fishery in the Yellow Sea and management implications

Landings in the blue crab, Portunus trituberculatus, fishery in Korean waters of the Yellow Sea have declined substantially from 11,000 t in the 1980s to 2,300 t in 2004. Blue crab habitat quality in the Yellow Sea has been degraded by anthropogenic activities including sand mining, land reclamation, and coastal pollution. Various traditional management measures have been implemented, including closed seasons during spawning and size limits, but these measures alone have been unsuccessful to conserve blue crab stocks. Consequently, a total allowable catch and a stock-rebuilding program using an ecosystem-based management approach were implemented in 2003 and 2006, respectively to rebuild blue crab stocks and restore habitats. This program involved assessment of both blue crab stock status and trammel-net fishery impacts at an ecosystem-level using an ecosystem-based fisheries assessment method ( [Zhang et al., 2009] and [Zhang et al., 2010]), which considered fishery data from catch and effort time-series, crab population biology, and ecosystem characteristics, including habitats and environmental conditions. Recent (2008) management status indices have shown significant positive change compared to conditions in 2000 with respect to sustainability of the stock and fishery and with regards to biodiversity and ecosystem habitat quality.     

Verifier of the maximum sustainable yield estimates of the southern Atlantic albacore,Thunnus alalunga,stock

Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has generally been accepted as one of the target biological reference points. Albacore, Thunnus alalunga Bonnaterre, is a temperate tuna species widely distributed in marine waters. The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the International Seafood Sustainability Foundation (ISSF) had reported the southern Atlantic albacore stock status with different MSY reference points. In addition, the European Commission's Advisory Committee on Fisheries and Aquaculture (ACFA), on 15 September 2006, proposed to amend the Common Fisheries Policy according to the MSY principle, but there is little information on the verifier of the MSY estimates of this albacore stock. This study verifies the MSY estimates of this albacore (T. alalunga) stock to support the management (i.e. setting of MSY) for the southern Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) stock. The MSY estimates of the albacore stock were evaluated and verified by different models (i.e. Bayesian surplus production model [BSPM], continuous time delay‐difference model [CD‐DM] and Fox surplus production model [SPM]). The MSY estimates from BSPM and CD‐DM were lower than those from conventional estimates; the relative biomass ratio (B₂₀₁₁/B_MSY) and relative fishing mortality ratio (F₂₀₁₁/F_MSY) from BSPM and CD‐DM were higher than those from ICCAT, which showed that measures should be taken for the sustainable utilisation of this fish stock.     

Rebuilding global fisheries: the World Summit Goal,costs and benefits

Many of the world’s fish stocks are depleted as a result of overexploitation, pollution and habitat loss. The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) sets a target for fisheries to maintain or restore stocks to levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) by 2015. We assessed the global stock status and found that 68% were at or above the MSY level in 2008 and that the 2015 target is unlikely to be met. We compiled data for eight indicators to evaluate the sustainability of fisheries and the gap to meet the WSSD target. These indicators show that the overall condition of global fisheries is declining, long‐term benefits are being compromised, and pressures on fisheries are increasing despite fisheries policy and management actions being taken by coastal States. We develop a bio‐economic model to estimate the costs and benefits of restoring overfished stocks. Our results show that the global fishing capacity needs to be cut by 36–43% from the 2008 level, resulting in the loss of employment of 12–15 million fishers and costing US$96–358 billion for buybacks. On the other hand, meeting the WSSD goal will increase annual fishery production by 16.5 million tonnes, annual rent by US$32 billion and improve biodiversity and functioning of marine ecosystems. However, progress towards rebuilding has been hindered by an unwillingness or inability to accept the short‐term socio‐economic consequences associated with rebuilding fisheries. Thus, there is a pressing need for integration of rebuilding plans into national political and economic decision‐making.     

Coping with information gaps in stock productivity for rebuilding and achieving maximum sustainable yield for grouper–snapper fisheries

Maintaining fish stocks at optimal levels is a goal of fisheries management worldwide; yet, this goal remains somewhat elusive, even in countries with well‐established fishery data collection, assessment and management systems. Achieving this goal often requires knowledge of stock productivity, which can be challenging to obtain due to both data limitations and the complexities of marine populations. Thus, scientific information can lag behind fishery policy expectations in this regard. Steepness of the stock–recruitment relationship affects delineation of target biomass level reference points, a problem which is often circumvented by using a proxy fishing mortality rate (F) in place of the rate associated with maximum sustainable yield (F_MSY). Because MSY is achieved in the long term only if an F proxy is happenstance with F_MSY, characterizing productivity information probabilistically can support reference point delineation. For demersal stocks of equatorial and tropical regions, we demonstrate how the use of a prior probability distribution for steepness can help identify suitable F proxies. F proxies that reduce spawning biomass per recruit to a target percentage of the unfished quantity (i.e., SPR) of 40% to 50% SPR had the highest probabilities of achieving long‐term MSY. Rebuilding was addressed through closed‐loop simulation of broken‐stick harvest control rules. Similar biomass recovery times were demonstrated for these rules in comparison with more information‐intensive rebuilding plans. Our approach stresses science‐led advancement of policy through a lens of information limitations, which can make the assumptions behind rebuilding plans more transparent and align management expectations with biological outcomes.     

Managing at Maximum Sustainable Yield does not ensure economic well‐being for artisanal fishers

Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) is a common target for fisheries aiming to achieve long‐term ecological sustainability. Although achieving MSY may ensure the long‐term sustainability of fish populations, we ask whether it will provide economic security for fishers. Here we use 16 years of daily landing records to estimate potential catches and revenues per capita if fisheries were exploited at MSY in 11 subregions across Mexico. We then compare fishers’ estimated revenues per capita against national poverty limits at the household level. Our results show that even if MSY is reached in artisanal fisheries, the overcapacity of fleets and the dissipation of rents threatens the economic well‐being of fishers and their families, pushing revenues per capita below poverty levels. Our work demonstrates the importance of resolving the trade‐offs between achieving economic, social and environmental objectives when managing for the long‐term sustainable use of natural resources.     

闽台近海渔业管理目标的研究

本文应用Ｓｃｈａｅｆｅｒ和Ｆｏｘ两种剩余产量模式,及其由此衍生的两种生物经济模式,分别估算了闽台近海最大持续产量,最适捕捞力量和最大经济产量,最适经济捕捞 力量,最佳经济效益等指标,建立了闽台渔烽管理模式,比较了以最大渔获量和以最佳经济效益为目标的各项经济指标,讨论了并确定了近期以最大持续产量为目标的渔业管理方案。     

Checking the pulse of the major commercial fisheries of lake Victoria Kenya,for sustainable management

The present study demonstrates the declining state of the major commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria, Kenya, a situation threatening sustainability of the lake's fishery. Data in the present study were derived from resource monitoring programmes that included hydro‐acoustics (2009–2018), trawl net fishing (2011–2018), frame surveys (2000–2016) and catch assessment surveys (2000–2015). The activities provided information on fish stocks and supported advice for fisheries management. The average fish stock densities for Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya of 8.92, 8.25 and 8.19 t/km², respectively, were relatively similar. Diplomatic and sustainable efforts for harmony in fish harvesting among the fishers of the riparian countries are encouraged given the interdependence of the lake. The Kenyan and River Kagera regions had a higher proportion (≈ 4% each) of big‐sized Nile perch (≥50 cm total length) in 2018, signifying the critical breeding areas for Nile perch. To sustain the fishery, there is need to enforce a 36%–44% effort reduction for all the major fisheries, and enforcement of gear limits to avoid harvesting of immature fish and destruction of the lake ecosystem.     

Stock assessment and management implications of anchovy kilka (Clupeonella engrauliformis) in Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea

Recent changes in sea level of the Caspian Sea and ecological impacts caused by the invasive ctenophore (Mnemiopsis leidyi) have altered the ecosystem. A consequence is the changes in the absolute and relative abundance of the commercially important anchovy kilka (Clupeonella engrauliformis) in Iranian waters. To adjust to this change more rigorous management of this fishery is required. This paper examines the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and fishing intensity at MSY. The paper presents estimates of f_MSY, yield-per-recruit and spawning biomass-per-recruit under various harvest strategies of F_max, F_0.1 and F_40%. We propose a method for estimating acceptable biological catch (ABC) that accounts for large differences in the quality and quantity of information and available data. The MSY and f_MSY were estimated 44,652 mt (metric tons) and 18,609 vessel × nights (a unit of effort). The ABC was estimated at 2190 mt in 2004. In 2005, however, the catch of anchovy kilka was about 4300, over twice the estimated ABC. In 2008 (from January to October) the catch declined to 220 mt. The analyses indicate that overfishing, especially between 2005 and 2008, is the main reason of the collapse of anchovy kilka in the Caspian Sea.