Herd demographics correlated with the spatial distribution of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Buenos Aires province, Argentina

During a recent foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina, cattle herds affected in 2001 were located mainly (69%) in Buenos Aires province. The densities of outbreaks (no. of outbreaks per km²) and cattle-demographic variables in the province were estimated using a geographical information system and kernel function. Before the epidemic officially was recognized, the density of outbreaks was correlated (r_sp = 0.28–0.47) with the geographic distribution of small (≤100 cattle), dairy and fattening herds. During the mass-vaccination campaign to control the epidemic (April–July), the density of outbreaks was most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.20–0.25) with the distribution of large (>500 cattle) and breeding herds. After the end of the mass-vaccination campaign, large herds and number of cows were most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.16–0.26) with outbreak density. These relationships might indicate that: (1) the disease spread more rapidly or was more easily detected in intensive production systems at the beginning of the epidemic; (2) vaccination and other control methods applied were less effective in large, semi-intensive production systems; (3) incomplete vaccine protection was responsible for herd outbreaks that occurred after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.     

Epidemiological investigations of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Argentina

A total of 2126 herds, an attack rate of 0.82 per cent, were affected during an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Argentina in 2001. The spatial and temporal distribution of the epidemic was investigated using nearest-neighbour and spatial scan tests and by estimating the frequency distributions of the times to intervention, and distances and times between outbreaks. The outbreaks were clustered and associated significantly (P<0.01) with herd density; 94 per cent were located in the Pampeana region, where the cattle population is concentrated, which had an attack rate of 1.4 per cent. The clustering results suggested that the virus had spread locally between outbreaks. Most of the outbreaks were separated by one day and the maximum distance between outbreaks was almost 2000 km, indicating that the infection spread rapidly over large distances. The index outbreak was detected more than 15 days after the primary outbreak, and restrictions on the movement of cattle were probably not enforced until about one month after infection occurred. As in other major epidemics, the period between the first outbreaks and the effective application of control strategies was probably crucial in determining the progress of the epidemic.     

The effect of an outbreak of respiratory disease on herd-level milk production of Norwegian dairy farms

This study was done to evaluate the effect of an outbreak of acute respiratory disease associated with bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) on the daily milk yield per cow in Norwegian dairy-cattle farms. Retrospective data from 184 dairy herds located in two neighbouring veterinary districts during the study period (December 1994–May 1995, during which an epidemic of acute respiratory disease associated with BRSV occurred in this area) were analysed. Data on the bulk-milk deliveries and the date of the outbreak were collected at herd level, whereas information on calving dates and parity was collected at cow-level. The effect of the herd outbreaks on the daily milk yield was analysed with a repeated-measurement approach. The average daily milk loss was estimated to be 0.70 kg per cow for 7 days after a herd outbreak (compared with the period >1 week prior to an outbreak), adjusted for the herd-level lactation stage, parity and their interaction term. We consider the estimated milk loss associated with a herd outbreak of epidemic respiratory disease to be of minor importance.     

The 1997-1998 epidemic of classical swine fever in the Netherlands

In 1997, the pig husbandry in the Netherlands was struck by a severe epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). During this epidemic 429 CSF-infected herds were depopulated and approximately 1300 herds were slaughtered pre-emptively. In addition millions of pigs of herds not CSF-infected were killed for welfare reasons (over crowding or overweight). In this paper, we describe the course of the epidemic and the measures that were taken to control it.The first outbreak was detected on 4 February 1997 in the pig dense south-eastern part of the Netherlands. We estimate that CSF virus (CSFV) had already been present in the country by that time for 5-7 weeks and that the virus had been introduced into approximately 39 herds before the eradication campaign started. This campaign consisted of stamping-out infected herds, movement restrictions and efforts to diagnose infected herds as soon as possible. However, despite these measures the rate at which new outbreaks were detected continued to rise. The epidemic faded out only upon the implementation of additional measures such as rapid pre-emptive slaughter of herds in contact with or located near infected herds, increased hygienic measures, biweekly screening of all herds by veterinary practitioners, and reduction of the transportation movements for welfare reasons. The last infected herd was depopulated on 6 March 1998.     

Investigations of cattle herd breakdowns with bovine tuberculosis in four counties of England and Wales using VETNET data

Cattle herd breakdown (HBR) with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was investigated for farms in four counties of England and Wales outside southwest England from 1986 to early 2000. Data from the national database of TB testing history (VETNET) were used. Factors that influenced HBR included calendar time, herd size, number of cattle tested, the test type, the inter-test interval and spatial grouping of farms. Herd tests other than routine herd tests had an increased risk of HBR in all four counties. In all counties, the risk of HBR increased with calendar time and in Shropshire a test interval of 3 years was associated with an increased risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. In Staffordshire and Sussex, a 4-year test interval was associated with a lower risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. There was no evidence of spatial clustering of HBR in West Glamorgan (equal spatial risk in a 15–30 km radius) and weak evidence of spatial clustering in Shropshire (7–15 km) and Sussex (5–10 km). In Staffordshire, there was evidence of spatial (2–4 km) and time (3–4 years) clustering of HBR. The locally increased rate of testing following a confirmed HBR increased the detection of infected herds but did not prevent local spread in two of the four counties (Shropshire and Staffordshire) since the rate of HBR increased linearly from 1988 to 2000. The main conclusion is that there were both local and distant components of spread.     

The classical swine fever epidemic 1997-1998 in The Netherlands: descriptive epidemiology

The objective of this paper is to describe the severe epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands in 1997–1998 under a policy of non-vaccination, intensive surveillance, pre-emptive slaughter and stamping out in an area which has one of the highest pig and herd densities in Europe.

The primary outbreak was detected on 4 February 1997 on a mixed sow and finishing pig herd. A total of 429 outbreaks was observed during the epidemic, and approximately 700 000 pigs from these herds were slaughtered. Among these outbreaks were two artificial insemination centres, which resulted in a CSF-suspect declaration of 1680 pig herds (mainly located in the southern part of The Netherlands). The time between introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) into the country and diagnosis of CSF in the primary outbreak was estimated to be approximately 6 weeks. It is presumed that CSFV was spread from The Netherlands to Italy and Spain via shipment of infected piglets in the beginning of February 1997, before the establishment of a total stand-still of transportation. In June 1997, CSFV is presumed to be introduced into Belgium from The Netherlands.

Pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located in close vicinity of infected herds, was carried out around the first two outbreaks. However, this policy was not further exercised till mid-April 1997, when pre-emptive slaughter became a standard operational procedure for the rest of the epidemic. In total, 1286 pig herds were pre-emptively slaughtered. (approximately 1.1 million pigs). A total of 44 outbreaks (10%) was detected via pre-emptive slaughter.

When there were clinical signs, the observed symptoms in infected herds were mainly atypical: fever, apathy, ataxia or a combination of these signs. In 322 out of 429 outbreaks (75%), detection was bases on clinical signs observed: 32% was detected by the farmer, 25% by the veterinary practitioner, 10% of the outbreaks by tracing teams and 8% by screening teams of the veterinary authorities. In 76% of the outbreaks detected by clinical signs, the farmer reported to have seen clinical symptoms for less than 1 week before diagnosis, in 22% for 1–4 weeks before diagnosis, and in 4 herds (1%) the farmer reported to have seen clinical symptoms for more than 4 weeks before diagnosis.

Transportation lorries played a major role in the transmission of CSFV before the primary outbreak was diagnosed. It is estimated that approximately 39 herds were already infected before the first measures of the eradication campaign came into force.

After the first measures to stop the spread of CSFV had been implemented, the distribution of the most likely routes of transmission markedly changed. In most outbreaks, a neighbourhood infection was indicated.

Basically, there were two reasons for this catastrophe. Firstly, there was the extent of the period between introduction of the virus in the region and detection of the first outbreak. As a result, CSFV had opportunities to spread from one herd to another during this period. Secondly, the measures initially taken did not prove sufficient in the swine- and herd-dense region involved.     

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

Geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics for evaluation of the dispersion of epidemic highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1

The aim of this study was to evaluate a range of statistical and geostatistical methods for their usefulness in providing insights into how highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might spread through a national population of village poultry. The insights gained allow the generation of disease dispersion hypotheses. The case study data set consisted of 161 outbreaks of HPAI subtype H5N1 in village poultry reported in Romania between October 2005 and June 2006. Reports of village outbreaks (%) occurred in three waves: October-December (14%), February-March (16%), and May-June (68%). Risk mapping - based on variography and kriging - was used to visualize the evolution of the epidemic. Outbreaks first appeared in eastern and southern Romania, particularly within an area that forms part of the Danube River Delta. The largest phase of the epidemic affected villages in all parts of central, southern, and eastern Romania, but outbreaks were clustered in central Romania. Outbreaks spread in an east to west direction. By using geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics, the evolution of the epidemic could be characterised into two parts: disease introduction, local spread, and sporadic outbreaks, and long-distance disease spread with rapid epidemic propagation. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the environment and landscape (specifically the Danube River Delta) played a critical role in the introduction and initial spread of HPAI subtype H5N1 during the autumn and winter of 2005, and that the movement of poultry might have introduced the infection into central Romania during the spring and summer of 2006. Further research focusing on the spatio-temporal interface between the two parts of the epidemic might reveal how and why it progressed from a confined, local epidemic to a large, national epidemic. Such information would assist efforts to limit the global spread of HPAI subtype H5N1.     

Risk factors and characteristics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) post-vaccination outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 is now endemic in South-East Asia but HPAI control methods differ between countries. A widespread HPAI vaccination campaign that started at the end of 2005 in Viet Nam resulted in the cessation of poultry and human cases, but in 2006/2007 severe HPAI outbreaks re-emerged. In this study we investigated the pattern of this first post-vaccination epidemic in southern Viet Nam identifying a spatio-temporal cluster of outbreak occurrence and estimating spatially smoothed incidence rates of HPAI. Spatial risk factors associated with HPAI occurrence were identified. Medium-level poultry density resulted in an increased outbreak risk (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6–18.9) but also climate-vegetation factors played an important role: medium-level normalised difference vegetation indices during the rainy season from May to October were associated with higher risk of HPAI outbreaks (OR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.7–8.1), probably because temporal flooding might have provided suitable conditions for the re-emergence of HPAI by expanding the virus distribution in the environment and by enlarging areas of possible contacts between domestic waterfowl and wild birds. On the other hand, several agricultural production factors, such as sweet potatoes yield, increased buffalo density, as well as increased electricity supply were associated with decreased risk of HPAI outbreaks. This illustrates that preventive control measures for HPAI should include a promotion of low-risk agricultural management practices as well as improvement of the infrastructure in village households. Improved HPAI vaccination efforts and coverage should focus on medium poultry density areas and on the pre-monsoon time period.     

Comparison of different control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease: a study of the epidemics in Canada in 1951/52, Hampshire in 1967 and Northumberland in 1966

The measures used to control the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in Canada in 1951/52 (29 outbreaks) were compared with those used in the epidemic in Hampshire in 1967 (29 outbreaks). In both epidemics the disease spread more from premises where the disease was reported late and the imposition of quarantine or restrictions on infected premises was delayed. In Hampshire, area restrictions were imposed, susceptible livestock on infected premises and on premises in direct contact were slaughtered, and contacts were traced. In Canada, the initial diagnosis was vesicular stomatitis, no area restrictions were imposed, no tracing was carried out and the animals on infected premises were allowed to recover. However, apart from the disease's spread through infected meat and by unknown or airborne routes, it did not spread from infected premises once quarantine was imposed, partly owing to the low population density of livestock in the area. The effects of the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts in the Fareham area of Hampshire in 1967 and in the Chathill area of Northumberland in 1966 were compared with what might have happened if, in addition, culling on contiguous premises or culling on premises within 3 km or emergency vaccination had been put into effect. The slaughter of cattle, sheep, goats and pigs on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would have resulted in fewer outbreaks and a shorter period to complete slaughter, but more animals would have been slaughtered. In the Chathill area, the slaughter of sheep, goats and pigs only on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would not have resulted in fewer outbreaks and more animals would have been slaughtered. Fewer premises and animals would have been slaughtered by a contiguous cull than by a 3 km cull but more than by the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts. Emergency vaccination within 3 km, providing protection at four days (but not to animals already infected before the development of immunity), would have resulted in the fewest animals being slaughtered and could have reduced the number of outbreaks in the Fareham area by one and in the Chathill area by two or three. All the procedures would have had a greater effect the sooner they were introduced. However, with many foci of infection, priorities for action would have had to have been established. Earlier tracing of the last outbreak in the Fareham area could have shortened the Hampshire epidemic. Surveillance of a farm identified as at risk through animal movements and by the use of an airborne-prediction model could have eliminated the source of further outbreaks in the Chathill area.     

Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

ABSTRACT: Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (< 2 herds per day) in an epidemic wave along contiguous habitat for several years, before dying out (when the epidemic arrived at the end of a contiguous sub-population or at a low density wild pig area). The low incidence rate indicates that surveillance for wildlife disease epidemics caused by short lived infections will be most efficient when surveillance is based on detection and investigation of clinical events, although this may not always be practical. Epidemics could be contained and eradicated with culling (aerial shooting) or vaccination when these were adequately implemented. It was apparent that the spatial structure, ecology and behaviour of wild populations must be accounted for during disease management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.     

Effect of Neospora caninum-serostatus on culling, reproductive performance and milk production in Dutch dairy herds with and without a history of Neospora caninum-associated abortion epidemics

We quantified the effect of Neospora caninum (NC)-serostatus on culling and (re)production in 83 herds randomly selected from the Dutch dairy herd population (random group) and in 17 herds that had experienced an abortion epidemic associated with NC infection (epidemic-abortion group). In the random group, a single whole-herd blood sampling was done during the spring of 2003, while in the epidemic-abortion group whole-herd blood sampling was done repeatedly at least once a year starting after the abortion epidemic during the period 1997–2000 until the summer of 2004. Serological test-results for NC were given as ‘negative’ (N), ‘low-positive’ (LP) and ‘high-positive’ (HP). For analysing the time to culling, calving interval and age of first calving, survival analysis was used. For categorical reproduction parameters either a logistic-regression model (abortion, non-return after 1st insemination) or a Poisson-regression model (number of inseminations per pregnancy) was used. For milk production a linear-mixed model was used. All models were controlled, if applicable, for confounding variables like parity, production, season, year and abortion and adjusted for within-herd clustering.

In random herds, HP serostatus increased the hazard for culling 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.37–2.19) compared to N and LP serostatus. Compared to N serostatus, LP and HP serostatus in epidemic-abortion herds increased the odds for abortion 1.88-fold (95% CI: 1.41–2.52) and 1.72-fold (95% CI: 1.38–2.14), respectively. No other reproduction parameters were associated with NC-serostatus in the random or epidemic-abortion herds. We found no effect of serostatus on milk production in the random group. In contrast, milk production of LP and HP serostatus in the epidemic-abortion group was respectively, 0.72 kg milk/day (95% CI: 0.15–1.03) and 0.59 kg milk/day (95% CI: 0.13–1.30), less during the first 100 days of lactation in the first year after the abortion epidemic compared with N serostatus.     

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) eradication in Switzerland--experiences of the first two years

A national eradication programme was designed with the aim of achieving total freedom from bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in the Swiss cattle population. The eradication programme consisted of testing every Swiss bovine for antigen, culling virus-positive animals and applying movement restrictions. Starting in 2008, the campaign achieved the goal of reducing the proportion of newborn calves that were virus-positive from 1.8% to under 0.2% within two years (situation in September 2010). Both good data flow between the parties involved as well as speed and efficiency (e.g. concerning the application of tests, movement restrictions and slaughter) are central to the success of the programme. Since the beginning of the programme 2.85 million cattle have been tested for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). The BVD-prevalence in cattle at the individual and herd levels following the implementation of the eradication programme was assessed. Using data collected during this campaign a risk factor analysis was conducted in order to identify factors associated with the appearance of virus positive newborn calves in herds where BVD had not previously been detected; these risk factors would allow targeting of future surveillance. Herd size, early death rate (i.e. the number of animals that either die before 15 days of age or are stillborn per number of newborns per year), buying in stock, using communal summer grazing, production type, age structure and management strategy were factors associated with the appearance of new cases of infection. Testing of newborn calves for antigen will continue to be conducted until the end of 2011, this is combined with outbreak investigation of newly infected herds (consisting of re-testing dams of virus-positive calves and if necessary all cattle on or that recently left the farm). This process is done to identify infected animals that may have been missed during prior testing (false negatives), it also serves to identify other factors that may be responsible for the introduction of BVDV onto the farm. Since October 2009, testing of calves for antigen combined with outbreak investigation has led to the detection of 55 infected animals that had tested negative (presumably false negative) during previous rounds of testing.     

The range of influence between cattle herds is of importance for the local spread of Salmonella Dublin in Denmark

The objective of the study was to estimate the range of influence between cattle herds with positive Salmonella Dublin herd status. Herd status was a binary outcome of high/low antibody levels to Salmonella Dublin in bulk-tank milk and blood samples collected from all cattle herds in Denmark for surveillance purposes. Two methods were used. Initially, a spatial generalised linear mixed model was developed with an exponential correlation function to estimate the range of influence simultaneously with the effect of potential risk factors. An iteratively reweighted generalised least squares procedure was used as a second method for verifying the range of influence estimates. With this iterative procedure, deviance residuals were calculated based on a generalised linear model and the range of influence was estimated based on the residuals using an exponential semivariogram. The range of influence was estimated for six different regions in Denmark using both methods. The analyses were performed on data collected during 1 year after initiation of the Salmonella Dublin surveillance program providing herd classifications for the 4th year-quarter of 2003 and 2 years later for the 4th year-quarter of 2005. The prevalence of dairy herds with a positive Salmonella Dublin herd classification status in this period had decreased from 22.1 to 17.0%. In non-dairy herds, the prevalence was nearly unchanged during the same period (3.4 and 3.7% in 4th quarter of 2003 and 2005, respectively). For all cattle herds, the range of influence was 2.3–6.4 km in 2003 and 1.5–8.3 km in 2005. There seemed to be no association between the range of influence and the density of herds in the different regions.     

Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

ABSTRACT: The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures.To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission.We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.     

Potential infection-control benefit for Ireland from pre-movement testing of cattle for tuberculosis

Pre-movement testing for bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was compulsory in Ireland until 1996. We determined the proportion of herd restrictions (losing BTB-free status) attributable to the recent introduction of an infected bovid; described events between restoration of BTB-free status (de-restriction) and the next herd-level test for BTB; estimated the proportion of undetected infected cattle present at de-restriction; identified high-risk movements between herds (movements most likely to involve infected cattle); and determined the potential yield of infected cattle discovered (or herds that would not lose their BTB-free status) by pre-movement testing, relative to the numbers of cattle and herds tested. We used national data for all 6252 herds with a new BTB restriction in the 12 months from 1 April 2003 and 3947 herds declared BTB-free in the 12 months from 1 October 2001. We identified higher-risk animals from our logistic generalized estimating-equation models. We attributed 6-7% of current herd restrictions to the recent introduction of an infected animal. There were considerable changes to herd structure between de-restriction and the next full-herd test, and infection was detected in 10% of herds at the first assessment (full-herd test or abattoir surveillance) following de-restriction. Following movement from a de-restricted herd, the odds of an animal being positive at the next test increased with increasing time in the source herd prior to movement, increasing time between de-restriction and the next full-herd test and increasing severity of the source herd restriction. The odds decreased with increasing size of the source herd. We estimated that 15.9 destination-herd restrictions per year could be prevented for every 10,000 cattle tested pre-movement and that 3.3 destination-herd restrictions per year could be prevented for every 100 source herds tested pre-movement. The yield per pre-movement test can be increased by focusing on high-risk movements; however, this would result in a substantial decrease in the total number of potential restrictions identified.     

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.     

Apparent reinfection of enzootic-pneumonia-free pig herds: early signs and incubation period

Since 1959, the Pig Health Control Association (PHCA) has run a national health-control scheme for pig herds believed to be free from enzootic pneumonia. During this time, many herds developed this disease without a simple explanation. From 1968, 55 such unexplained breakdowns have been studied in detail. The first signs in 50 breakdowns were either coughing in growing pigs (52 per cent of outbreaks), illness in adult stock (34 per cent of outbreaks) or pneumonia in routinely slaughtered pigs (14 per cent of outbreaks). In some outbreaks, enzootic pneumonia appeared to grow out of a pre-existing respiratory infection, which was not identified as enzootic pneumonia, in suckling pigs, suggesting that either Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae was already present in a latent state, or it more readily seeded damaged respiratory tracts from outside. In three outbreaks of this type, where pathological material was collected during the transition period, no laboratory evidence was obtained for the presence of M hyopneumoniae in the primary respiratory disease. Analysis of breakdowns in two national testing stations indicated that clinical/pathological signs might not develop until three to five months after the introduction of an infected group of weaners. It is possible, therefore, that a pig herd might not show obvious signs of the disease until up to six months or more after initial infection. There was little evidence to indicate that unexplained breakdowns arose from long term latent infection in other herds from which stock had been imported. There was considerable evidence, however, to suggest that breakdowns arose from extraneous sources.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)