Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte–Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1–10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.     

Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

ABSTRACT: Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (< 2 herds per day) in an epidemic wave along contiguous habitat for several years, before dying out (when the epidemic arrived at the end of a contiguous sub-population or at a low density wild pig area). The low incidence rate indicates that surveillance for wildlife disease epidemics caused by short lived infections will be most efficient when surveillance is based on detection and investigation of clinical events, although this may not always be practical. Epidemics could be contained and eradicated with culling (aerial shooting) or vaccination when these were adequately implemented. It was apparent that the spatial structure, ecology and behaviour of wild populations must be accounted for during disease management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.     

Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (R_H) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

Analysis of the 1999-2000 highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) epidemic in the main poultry-production area in northern Italy

We evaluated the effects of risk factors and control policies following the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic that struck northern Italy's poultry industry in the winter of 1999–2000. The epidemic was caused by a type-A influenza virus of the H7N1 subtype, that originated from a low-pathogenic AI virus which spread among poultry farms in northeastern Italy in 1999 and eventually became virulent by mutation. Most infected premises (IP) were located in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto (382 out of 413, 92.5%), and the eradication measures provided for in the European legislation were enforced. In Veneto, where flock density was highest, infection-control was also accomplished by means of depopulation of susceptible flocks through a ban on restocking and pre-emptive slaughter of flocks that were in the vicinities of or that had dangerous contacts with IPs. In Lombardy, such control measures were applied to a lesser extent. Infection incidence rate (IR) was 2.6 cases per 1000 flocks per day in Lombardy and 1.1 in Veneto. After the implementation of infection-control measures, the at-risk population, the percentage of flocks ≤1.5 km from IPs, and the HPAI-IR underwent a greater reduction in Veneto than in Lombardy. Although the proximity (≤1.5 km) to IPs in the temporal risk window (TRW) was a major risk factor for HPAI at the individual flock level, its effect at the population level (population-attributable fraction) did not exceed 31.3%. Viral transmission therefore also occurred among relatively distant flocks. Turkey flocks were characterised by grerater IR of HPAI compared with other bird species such as layer hens, broilers, gamebirds, and waterfowl, even when located at distances >1.5 km from IPs. In Lombardy, IR for species other than turkeys was also relatively high.     

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 2: Serosurveillance, and efficiency and effectiveness of control procedures after the national ban on animal movements

After the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland in 2001, serosurveillance of sheep remaining in the 3 km radius Protection Zones around Infected Premises (IPS), and within a 10 km radius of IPS, revealed no evidence of infection. The epidemic was brought under control by a range of traditional techniques: slaughter of all animals on IPS and of veterinary-assessed Dangerous Contacts (DCS), movement restrictions, biosecurity, tracing of potential sources and spread of virus, and surveillance of At-Risk premises. Novel pre-emptive slaughter of FMD-susceptible animals on premises contiguous to IPS, and small ruminants and pigs on premises within 3 km of IPSs, commenced after the epidemic had peaked. Most of the traditional control procedures were undertaken quickly and with appropriate priority. Animals on IPS were usually slaughtered within one day of confirmation, and veterinary-assessed DCS within two days of confirmation of relevant IPS (a median of two days). The pre-emptive contiguous and 3 km culls took somewhat longer (medians of five and 17 days, respectively). IPS were most commonly identified as a result of reporting by farmers or their veterinarians (72 per cent of IPS); veterinary clinical patrols identified 16 per cent, while veterinary assessment of DCS and tracing each identified 5 per cent. No evidence of infection was found on any pre-emptively contiguously culled premises, and IPS were declared only on three 3 km cull premises. The time from estimated first lesion to end of slaughter on an IP was found, by regression analysis, to be a key component in effective control, manifested by a reduction in the estimated dissemination rate (EDR); there was little evidence that the intensity of contiguous culling affected the EDR. Patrols and serological surveillance of residual animals within 10 km of IPS, supported by more extensive evidence from elsewhere in the UK, suggested that cryptic infection in sheep was not widespread. Ultimately, there was insufficient evidence to support the effectiveness of 3 km pre-emptive culling as a control procedure.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

Comparing the epidemiological and economic effects of control strategies against classical swine fever in Denmark

In 2006, total Danish pork exports were valued at €3.8 billion, corresponding to approximately 5% of the total Danish exports, and an outbreak of a notifiable disease would have dramatic consequences for the agricultural sector in Denmark. Several outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) have occurred in Europe within the last decade, and different control strategies have been suggested. The objective of this study was to simulate the epidemiological and economic consequences of such control strategies in a CSF epidemic under Danish conditions with respect to herd demographics and geography and to investigate the effect of extra biosecurity measures on farms. We used InterSpread Plus to model the effect of nine different control strategies: the minimum measures required by the EU plus depopulation of contact herds (EUplus), extra depopulation of neighbouring herds, extra surveillance within the protection and surveillance zones, extra biosecurity in SPF herds—or in all herds, vaccination of all pigs in the 1 or 2 km zones using live vaccine as a protective measure (vaccination-to-kill), vaccination of all weaners and finishers in the 1 or 2 km zones using an E2 marker vaccine as a suppressive measure (vaccination-to-live). Each epidemic was simulated to start in four different index herds: production herds located in low, medium and high pig density areas, respectively; and a nucleus herd in an area of high pig density. For each control strategy and index case, we calculated the size and duration of the epidemic, the number of depopulated and/or vaccinated herds and animals, the control costs borne by the public and the pig industry, respectively, as well as the loss of exports associated with the epidemic.The simulations showed that the EUplus strategy is the most effective of the evaluated strategies with respect to limiting the size, duration and cost of the epidemic, regardless of the index case. However, regarding the number of slaughtered animals, the vaccination-to-live strategies appeared to be more effective.Epidemics become larger and last longer if the index case is a nucleus herd. This implies that biosecurity in nucleus herds is extremely important to avoid transmission of CSF to these herds.Simulations showed that a Danish CSF epidemic will be moderate in most cases and will include fewer than 10 cases and last less than 2 weeks on average. However, for some iterations, long-lasting and large epidemics were observed. Irrespective of the size and duration, an epidemic is expected to be very costly due to the export losses.     

Risk of foot-and-mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled.     

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.     

Development, aims and status quo of the EU animal disease law

The development of EC legislation is outlined using swine fever and foot and mouth disease as an example, starting with the possibility of vaccinating against both animal diseases in the 1980s without substantially restricting trade with vaccinated animals or products of these animals, right up to a policy of non-vaccination with the realisation of the single market with significant restrictions on intra-Community trade if the option of an emergency vaccination were to be used.The restrictions associated with emergency vaccination are basically tantamount to a vaccination ban. To that extent, vaccination needs to be taken into consideration as an instrument of animal disease control under the EU animal health legislation currently being discussed, the aim being for vaccinated animals that have tested as virus-free to be able to be marketed without any restrictions. This will, however, only be possible if all stakeholders (EU, member states, World Organisation for Animal Health, industry, consumers) achieve a broad consensus.     

Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock

ABSTRACT: The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission.     

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA - after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban - as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania.     

Comparison of different control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease: a study of the epidemics in Canada in 1951/52, Hampshire in 1967 and Northumberland in 1966

The measures used to control the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in Canada in 1951/52 (29 outbreaks) were compared with those used in the epidemic in Hampshire in 1967 (29 outbreaks). In both epidemics the disease spread more from premises where the disease was reported late and the imposition of quarantine or restrictions on infected premises was delayed. In Hampshire, area restrictions were imposed, susceptible livestock on infected premises and on premises in direct contact were slaughtered, and contacts were traced. In Canada, the initial diagnosis was vesicular stomatitis, no area restrictions were imposed, no tracing was carried out and the animals on infected premises were allowed to recover. However, apart from the disease's spread through infected meat and by unknown or airborne routes, it did not spread from infected premises once quarantine was imposed, partly owing to the low population density of livestock in the area. The effects of the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts in the Fareham area of Hampshire in 1967 and in the Chathill area of Northumberland in 1966 were compared with what might have happened if, in addition, culling on contiguous premises or culling on premises within 3 km or emergency vaccination had been put into effect. The slaughter of cattle, sheep, goats and pigs on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would have resulted in fewer outbreaks and a shorter period to complete slaughter, but more animals would have been slaughtered. In the Chathill area, the slaughter of sheep, goats and pigs only on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would not have resulted in fewer outbreaks and more animals would have been slaughtered. Fewer premises and animals would have been slaughtered by a contiguous cull than by a 3 km cull but more than by the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts. Emergency vaccination within 3 km, providing protection at four days (but not to animals already infected before the development of immunity), would have resulted in the fewest animals being slaughtered and could have reduced the number of outbreaks in the Fareham area by one and in the Chathill area by two or three. All the procedures would have had a greater effect the sooner they were introduced. However, with many foci of infection, priorities for action would have had to have been established. Earlier tracing of the last outbreak in the Fareham area could have shortened the Hampshire epidemic. Surveillance of a farm identified as at risk through animal movements and by the use of an airborne-prediction model could have eliminated the source of further outbreaks in the Chathill area.     

综合防控口蹄疫的关键技术——疫苗免疫

口蹄疫的发生和流行严重危害畜牧业的发展,造成惨重的经济损失,因此防控和消灭口蹄疫成为许多国家共同关注的问题。疫苗免疫是特异性预防和控制该病的有效手段。本文从免疫方式、动物种类、地域因素、生物模型4个方面对疫苗防控措施的建立加以论述,提出了常规免疫策略以及非疫苗预防免疫策略,并对紧急疫苗接种与感染动物扑杀进行了时效性分析,旨在面临疫病挑战时制订具有针对性的疫病防控措施,从而使疫苗免疫在控制、消灭和防止口蹄疫传播等方面更能有效地发挥作用。     

Short-term interval baiting to combat the re-emergence of fox rabies in Rhineland Palatinate (Germany) in 2005

In 2005, the final phase of terrestrial rabies eradication in Germany was put at risk by a severe setback due to re-introduction of the disease in Rhineland-Palatinate from neighbouring Hesse after seven years of absence. The rapid westward spread of the disease prompted veterinary authorities to react swiftly and apply a new yet unproven vaccination strategy to rapidly increase herd immunity in an almost unprotected fox population to stop the epidemic. The cornerstones of this emergency oral rabies vaccination strategy, i. e. vaccination intervals, identification of high risk spots, real time epidemiological assessment, capable to eliminate rabies within 13 months after incursion are described here. This strategy may be used as a template to tackle similar emergency situations in Europe in the future.     

Mycoplasmal mastitis in dairy herds.

Mycoplasmal bovine mastitis is potentially a highly contagious disease that can cause severe economic problems in affected herds. The purchase of replacement heifers and cows are frequently the origin of mycoplasmal mastitis outbreaks in previously Mycoplasma-free herds. Purchased cows and heifers should be quarantined and tested for mycoplasmal mastitis before admission to the regular herd. Detection of Mycoplasma-infected cows by culture of milk is straightforward, although there are problems of sensitivity for its detection in milk samples that are inherent to the nature of the disease and laboratory procedures. After detection of infected cows, the best way to protect the herd is to culture all cows in the herd, cows with clinical mastitis, and all heifers and cows after calving and before entering the milking herd. Control of mycoplasmal mastitis requires test and culling from the herd of Mycoplasma-positive cows if possible. When a large number of cows are infected, strict segregation with adequate management is an option; however, animals in this group should never re-enter the Mycoplama-free herd. The functioning of the milking equipment and milking procedures should be evaluated carefully and any flaws corrected. There is no treatment for mycoplasmal mastitis, and vaccination has not proven to be efficacious to prevent, decrease the incidence, or ameliorate the clinical signs of mycoplasmal mastitis. Waste milk should not be fed to calves without pasteurization. M bovis may cause several other pathologies in animals of different ages on a farm, including pneumonia, arthritis, and ear infections. The survival of mycoplasmas in different farm microenvironments needs to be further investigated for its impact on the epidemiology of the disease.     

The consequences of risk-based surveillance: Developing output-based standards for surveillance to demonstrate freedom from disease

Risk factors associated with high or low long-term incidence of displaced abomasum (DA) or clinical ketosis were studied in 60 Swedish dairy herds, using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Forty high-incidence herds were included as cases and 20 low-incidence herds as controls. Incidence rates were calculated based on veterinary records of clinical diagnoses. During the 3-year period preceding the herd classification, herds with a high incidence had a disease incidence of DA or clinical ketosis above the 3rd quartile in a national database for disease recordings. Control herds had no cows with DA or clinical ketosis. All herds were visited during the housing period and herdsmen were interviewed about management routines, housing, feeding, milk yield, and herd health. Target groups were heifers in late gestation, dry cows, and cows in early lactation. Univariable logistic regression was used to screen for factors associated with being a high-incidence herd. A multivariable logistic regression model was built using stepwise regression. A higher maximum daily milk yield in multiparous cows and a large herd size (p = 0.054 and p = 0.066, respectively) tended to be associated with being a high-incidence herd. Not cleaning the heifer feeding platform daily increased the odds of having a high-incidence herd twelvefold (p < 0.01). Keeping cows in only one group in the dry period increased the odds of having a high incidence herd eightfold (p = 0.03). Herd size was confounded with housing system. Housing system was therefore added to the final logistic regression model. In conclusion, a large herd size, a high maximum daily milk yield, keeping dry cows in one group, and not cleaning the feeding platform daily appear to be important risk factors for a high incidence of DA or clinical ketosis in Swedish dairy herds. These results confirm the importance of housing, management and feeding in the prevention of metabolic disorders in dairy cows around parturition and in early lactation.     

Effect of culling age of does on milk and meat production in Japanese-Saanen goats

A functional herd dynamics model was developed to estimate the effect of culling age on milk and meat production for Japanese-Saanen goats in relation to changes in prices of milk and meat. The model simulates life cycle production of bucks and does and their kids. Every production trait is first modelled as an individual trait and thereafter as a trait in the herd using a herd dynamics model. At the individual level, the survival curve function, the litter size function and the production traits function are combined. Data on growth and lactation were used to fit growth and lactation curves to estimated parameters using non-linear least squares regression technique and used in the production traits function. Using herd dynamics, the individual level functions are combined with the total number of animals function to estimate the total herd output and income efficiency at the herd level. Here, variables of culling days including the effect of difference in meat price value among goat categories (bucks, does, male kids and female kids) are used. Analysis of interrelations among the culling days of does, the price ratio and the income efficiency indicated that optimal culling days of does was shortened with an increase in the price ratio of meat to milk. However, when meat price value was different among goat categories according to actual situation of Japanese goat production, the optimal culling days of does could be fixed regardless of the change in price ratio and was calculated as 1730 days. This functional herd dynamics model can aid in decision-making regarding culling under several situations especially when there is a wide fluctuation in prices at local markets.