近30 a青海省植被变化及其气候驱动因子分析

基于1982—2013年GIMMS NDVI 3g数据集及青海省50个国家气象观测站同期气象资料,利用趋势分析、相关分析方法,对青海省植被覆盖时空变化特征及其驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:(1)受气候及地形地貌影响,青海省植被覆盖空间差异明显,总体呈现从东南向西北递减趋势。(2)近30 a,青海省气温、降水呈上升趋势,气候由冷干向暖湿化转变。植被覆盖呈现整体升高,局部退化趋势。植被的年代际变化显示,青海省植被覆盖在近30 a呈现增加—减小—再增加的趋势。(3)青海省生长季(4—9月)植被受气温和降水共同影响,除个别站点外,全省NDVI与气温和降水均呈显著正相关关系,与降水相比,NDVI与气温的相关性更强,气温是影响青海省植被变化的主要气候因子。     

基于GIS缓冲区功能的塔里木河中游植被指数时空变化分析

塔里木河中游的输水堤防工程束缚了汛期洪水漫溢,提高了下游输水效率。与此同时,堤防工程的修建也给塔里木河两岸生态带来了一些影响。本文以塔里木河中游输水堤外天然植被为研究对象,借助于遥感处理技术和GIS缓冲区分析功能,对塔里木河中游2000年(建堤前)和2010年、2014年(建堤后)天然植被指数(NDVI)时空变化以及土地利用变化进行了比较分析。结果显示:因河水影响范围限制,天然植被NDVI随着距堤防距离的增大而呈减小趋势。就离堤防2 000 m的范围来看,除了距堤防600~800 m的地区,2000年NDVI值整体上高于2010年;在离堤防20 km的范围内,前10 km左右,2000年的NDVI值比2010年要大,在10 km范围之外,受人类活动的影响,河水的天然影响被弱化,2010年的NDVI反而大于2000年。从土地利用变化上看,2014年研究区耕地面积是2000年的9倍左右,植被面积减少11.22%,较多天然林地转变为耕地。     

基于SPOT/NDVI华北地区植被变化动态监测与评价

利用1998-2011年SPOT NDVI数据反映华北地区植被覆盖变化情况,结合该地区土地覆盖数据以及1982-2011年84个气象站点的气温和降水数据,分别从时间和空间两个方面对其进行植被动态监测与评价,并简要分析其变化原因。结果表明:1)从时间上来看,华北地区NDVI在1998-2011年总体呈增长趋势,表明该地区植被覆盖情况整体上得到改善,其中,森林和农田NDVI增长最快;2)从空间上来看,华北地区地表植被覆盖得到改善的区域比退化区域面积要大,其中,森林和农田的恢复效果最为明显,而灌丛、草地、沙漠退化面积均超过改善面积,表明华北地区水土流失和荒漠化现象依然严峻;3)在华北地区气候长期趋于暖干化的背景下,华北植被变化与降水变化关系比与气温变化关系密切,表明植被覆盖变化受降水影响较大,此外,人类活动也是引起植被覆盖变化的重要驱动因子。     

苏贝淖流域植被覆盖时空变化及影响因素分析

利用Landsat TM影像数据,结合乌审召气象站的气象资料,分析了苏贝淖流域植被覆盖变化以及可能的影响因素,在小尺度流域层面上探讨了干旱半干旱地区地下水系统排泄区湖淖流域植被变化与气候因子、人类活动的关系。结果表明:1)时间尺度上,2000-2007年间苏贝淖流域年均NDVI呈增长趋势;2)空间尺度上,植被覆盖在2000-2007年里整体改善、局部恶化,退化区主要分布在可能受到工业活动开采地下水影响的苏贝淖、奎生淖、乌审旗碱厂附近,但之后的2009-2011年间植被覆盖由局部退化发展为整体退化,水体面积也逐渐缩减,佐证了地下水开采对植被覆盖产生一定程度负面影响的论点;3)NDVI在月份尺度上与气温、降水存在显著的相关性,且与气温的相关性大于降水。     

2000-2010年黄河源区植被覆盖率时空变化及其影响因素

黄河源区是对环境变化敏感的重要冻土区,监测黄河源区内植被的动态变化,并分析其对相关环境影响因子的响应机制,对了解该区近年来冻土及水资源变化机理有着重要意义.基于2000-2010年的MOD44B植被盖度(Vegetation Continuous Field-MOD44B)产品对黄河源区内植被覆盖率的变化进行分段线性回归及趋势转折分析,从时间和空间角度揭示植被覆盖率的变化特征,探讨降水、坡度、高程等因素对植被覆盖率变化的影响,并选择主要影响因素建立模型对黄河源区内的植被覆盖率进行预测.结果表明:2000-2010年黄河源区内植被覆盖率呈现较强的纬度地带性,并在年际间表现出波动上升趋势;植被改善区域主要分布在扎陵湖和鄂陵湖以南地区,退化区域则主要分布在两湖以北,空间上存在明显的分界线;研究时间段的气温和降水均呈波动上升趋势,线性增长率分别为0.09℃·a-1和8.9 mm·a-1,整个区域内植被变化对于气温更加敏感.与植被改善区相比,植被退化区平均坡度和海拔更低,表明人类活动可能对植被退化产生了影响.     

延河流域NDVI与主要气候因子的时空相关性研究

基于RS技术提取延河流域2000-2004年的NDVI影像,基于GIS技术生成流域气温和降水的内插分布图,并利用线性回归分析法和空间回归分析法分别对NDVI与气温和降水的时间、空间相关关系进行研究,以期为区域水资源可持续利用和生态环境的可持续发展提供科学依据。结果表明：（1）延河流域的植被NDVI存在明显的时空差异性,...     

基于GIMMS NDVI数据的北方13省荒漠化趋势评价

北方13省处在干旱、半干旱和半湿润地区,植被对气候变化和人类活动最为敏感,一直是荒漠化研究的热点地区。基于GIMMS NDVI和降水数据,使用一元线性回归方法对北方13省1982年-2006年ΣNDVI和降水的年际变化趋势及其相关性进行了分析,并对ΣNDVI和降水的变化趋势差异做进一步分析。研究结果表明:从总体上来看,中国北方13省在25年间荒漠化趋势变缓,即植被覆盖度呈显著上升趋势,其中显著增加的像元数为35.3%,而显著降低的像元数仅占7.2%。从ΣNDVI与降水的斜率散点象限图来看,ΣNDVI和降水的差异主要在第二象限和第三象限,说明尽管降水在北方地区植被覆盖度变化中起到主要作用,但是降水并不能完全解释植被覆盖度的变化趋势,人类活动如植树造林等是植被覆盖度增加的重要驱动力。内蒙古自治区东北部和东北地区的三江平原呈现出荒漠化趋势,在大部分地区与降水的相关性不显著,表明在该地区降水的影响作用较弱,主要是人类活动等因素导致的。     

基于SPOT VEGETATION数据的榆林地区土地覆盖变化研究

榆林地区位于我国农牧交错带,能源富集区,生态环境脆弱。建国以来的土地整治工作取得显著成效。本文利用1998-2004年SPOT VEGETATION NDVI分析了榆林地区植被变化情况。并且利用多年气象数据分析了降水和温度变化情况。结果表明榆林地区植被状况有明显改善,改善集中于8、9、10月份。而且植被覆盖变化具有明显的区域差异,北部植被覆盖改善趋势明显,且变化平稳;南部增加趋势不明显,有的地方还呈下降趋势,变化幅度大。     

2000-2010年祁连山植被MODIS NDVI的时空变化及影响因素

利用2000-2010年间的MODIS/NDVI数据和对应的气候资料,研究了近10年来祁连山植被的时空变化及影响因素。结果表明:1)10年来,祁连山年最大化NDVI(MNDVI)增加了2.4%,植被改善、无变化和退化的面积分别占总面积的26.32%、66.42%和7.26%。植被改善的区域分布在冷龙岭、拉脊山、大通山、达坂山、青海南山、走廊南山、托来山等山地以及西宁盆地、湟水谷地周边地区,减少的区域分布在乌鞘岭、庄浪河、古浪河、大通河、石羊河、黑河、疏勒河等河流河谷。2)祁连山不同植被类型MNDVI的年际变化趋势不同。灌丛地、荒漠草原、高寒稀疏草甸MNDVI呈快速增加趋势,高山草原、高山灌丛草甸和高寒草甸MNDVI呈增加趋势,落叶阔叶林、针阔混交林、常绿针叶林MNDVI呈快速下降趋势。3)影响祁连山植被生长的主要因子是气温和降水,局部地区密集的人类活动也能成为影响植被生长的关键因子。     

新疆伊犁河流域植被变化动态监测与评价

基于2000-2013年MODIS/NDVI数据和研究区内气象站点资料,分析了伊犁河流域植被生长季NDVI时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:1)研究区植被整体呈微弱的退化趋势,年退缩率为-0.8×10-3a-1,其中草原的退化趋势较草甸、灌丛和林地略显著。2)2000-2013年研究区植被退化区面积占研究区总面积的11.45%,主要分布在特克斯河中下游、巩乃斯河周边地区;植被改善面积占全区总面积的8.38%,主要分布在伊宁市及霍尔果斯河周边地区。3)研究区伊宁站周边植被生长季NDVI与同期气温及降水存在不显著相关性,昭苏站周边植被生长季NDVI与同期气温及降水分别存在显著负相关和极显著正相关。气候的暖干化趋势可能是导致伊犁河流域植被生长退化的主要原因。     

Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland,China

Grassland degradation is influenced by climate change and human activities, and has become a major obstacle for the development of arid and semi-arid areas, posing a series of environmental and socio-economic problems. An in-depth understanding of the inner relations among grassland vegetation dynamics, climate change, and human activities is therefore greatly significant for understanding the variation in regional environmental conditions and predicting future developmental trends. Based on MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) data from 2000 to 2020, our objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of NDVI in the Xilin Gol grassland, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. Combined with 12 natural factors and human activity factors in the same period, the dominant driving factors and their interactions were identified by using the geographic detector model, and multiple scenarios were also simulated to forecast the possible paths of future NDVI changes in this area. The results showed that: (1) in the past 21 a, vegetation cover in the Xilin Gol grassland exhibited an overall increasing trend, and the vegetation restoration (84.53%) area surpassed vegetation degradation area (7.43%); (2) precipitation, wind velocity, and livestock number were the dominant factors affecting NDVI (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.4). The interaction between average annual wind velocity and average annual precipitation, and between average annual precipitation and livestock number greatly affected NDVI changes (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.7). Moreover, the impact of climate change on NDVI was more significant than human activities; and (3) scenario analysis indicated that NDVI in the Xinlin Gol grassland increased under the scenarios of reduced wind velocity, increased precipitation, and ecological protection. In contrast, vegetation coverage restoration in this area was significantly reduced under the scenarios of unfavorable climate conditions and excessive human activities. This study provides a scientific basis for future vegetation restoration and management, ecological environmental construction, and sustainable natural resource utilization in this area.     

气候变化和人类活动对蒙古高原植被覆盖变化的影响

基于全球监测与模型研究组（GIMMS）归一化植被指数(NDVI),对蒙古高原地区1981-2006年植被覆盖的时空变化进行了研究,并从气候变化和人类活动的角度,分析了植被覆盖变化的原因。1981-2006年蒙古高原的植被覆盖时空分布具有明显的地带性特征,森林区及荒漠区植被覆盖呈现小幅下降趋势,草原区呈现上升趋势,蒙古高原NDVI分布从东北向西南、从高原南北边缘地带向中心地带呈明显的规律性变化：高原东北部的大兴安岭地区NDVI最高,蒙古国北部的杭爱山脉次之,西南部荒漠区的NDVI最低。研究表明: 植被覆盖变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果,蒙古高原地区的降水变化是植被覆盖变化的重要原因,森林砍伐、河套耕作及城镇化等人类活动则是导致具有相似气候条件的内蒙古与蒙古国植被覆盖变化区域差异的原因。     

Monitoring the impact of climate change andhuman activities on grassland vegetation dynamics in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateauof China during 2000-2015

Climate change and human activities can influence vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), a key component of natural ecosystems. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, in spite of its significant natural and cultural values, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change and human disturbancesin the world. To assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the grassland ecosystems ofthe northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we applied a time-series trend analysis to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets from 2000 to 2015 and compared these spatiotemporal variations with trends in climatic variables over the same time period. The constrained ordination approach (redundancy analysis) was used to determine which climatic variables or human-related factors mostly in?uenced the variation of NDVI. Furthermore, in order to determine whether current conservation measures and programs are effectivein ecological protection and reconstruction, we divided the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into two parts: the Three-River Headwater conservation area (TRH zone) in the south and the non-conservation area (NTRH zone) in the north. The results indicatedan overall (73.32%)increasing trend of vegetation NPP in grasslands throughout the study area. During the period 2000-2015, NDVI in the TRH and NTRH zones increased at the rates of 0.0015/aand 0.0020/a, respectively.Specifically, precipitation accounted for 9.2% of the total variation in NDVI, while temperature accounted for 13.4%. In addition, variation in vegetation NPP of grasslands responded not only to long- and short-term changes in climate, as conceptualized in non-equilibrium theory, but also to the impact of human activities and their associated perturbations. The redundancy analysis successfully separated the relative contributions of climate change and human activities, of whichvillage populationand agricultural gross domestic product were the two most important contributors to the NDVI changes, explaining 17.8% and 17.1% of the total variationof NDVI (with the total contribution >30.0%), respectively. The total contributionpercentages of climate change and human activitiesto the NDVI variation were27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, inthe northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Finally, our study shows that the grassland restoration in the study area was enhanced by protection measures and programs in the TRH zone, which explained 7.6% of the total variation in NDVI.     

近10 a来祁连山植被覆盖变化研究

NDVI作为植被生长状况及植被覆盖度的最佳指示因子,被认为是监测地区或全球植被和环境变化的最有效指标。基于2000-2011年250 m分辨率的MODIS NDVI数据并结合气候资料,采用最大值合成法、均值法、斜率分析法、相关分析法,研究祁连山生长季植被覆盖的时空变化及其与气候因子的相关性。结果表明：祁连山植被覆盖总体上自西向东递增,呈现东多西少的分布格局;植被覆盖变化存在明显的空间差异,表现为中西部植被覆盖增加,增加面积为79 149 km2,占祁连山总面积的52.93%;东部植被覆盖减少,减少面积为22 865 km2,占祁连山总面积的11.09%。近10 a来植被覆盖整体上呈增加趋势,生长季各月植被覆盖整体上呈增加趋势,全球气候变暖导致的降水增加是祁连山植被覆盖增加的主要原因。NDVI与气温、降水的相关性较高并存在一定的滞后性,6、7月NDVI分别与前期1月和前期2月的降水显著相关,相关系数分别为0.788和0.684;8、9月NDVI分别与当月、前期1月的气温极显著相关,相关系数分别为0.825和0.829。     

Vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change in Central Asia

The plant ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the responses of vegetation dynamics to climate change in Central Asia are still unclear. In this study, we used the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data to analyze the spatial-temporal changes of vegetation and the correlation of vegetation and climatic variables over the period of 1982–2012 in Central Asia by using the empirical orthogonal function and least square methods. The results showed that the annual NDVI in Central Asia experienced a weak increasing trend overall during the study period. Specifically, the annual NDVI showed a significant increasing trend between1982 and 1994, and exhibited a decreasing trend since 1994. The regions where the annual NDVI decreased were mainly distributed in western Central Asia, which may be caused by the decreased precipitation. The NDVI exhibited a larger increasing trend in spring than in the other three seasons. In mountainous areas, the NDVI had a significant increasing trend at the annual and seasonal scales; further, the largest increasing trend of NDVI mainly appeared in the middle mountain belt(1,700–2,650 m asl). The annual NDVI was positively correlated with annual precipitation in Central Asia, and there was a weak negative correlation between annual NDVI and temperature. Moreover, a one-month time lag was found in the response of NDVI to temperature from June to September in Central Asia during 1982–2012.     

Topographical and hydrological effects on meso-scale vegetation in desert steppe,Mongolia

This study investigated the seasonal variations of the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) and its relationships with climatic variables and topography in a small-scale(20 km×20 km) area(i.e., Tsogt-Ovoo village) within the desert steppe zone of Mongolia using in-situ observed climate data and satellite remote sensing data. We found that the topography is very important for vegetation growth in the desert steppe although the summer precipitation is the constraining factor. The unexpectedly high NDVI(up to 0.56), as well as the high aboveground biomass, in the valley bottom was primarily resulted from the topography-modulated redistribution of overland flow after relatively heavy precipitation events during the growing season. This makes the valley bottoms in desert steppes not only reliable feeding resources for livestock but also heavens for wild lives. But, the detected large standard deviation of annual maximum NDVI(NDVI_(max)) from 2000 to 2013 in the valley bottom in response to rather variable precipitation implies that the valley bottoms under desert steppe climates are more vulnerable to climatic change.     

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes. It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods. Therefore, it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle. Based on the data of climate elements (sunshine hours, precipitation and temperature), human activities (population intensity and GDP intensity) and other natural factors (altitude, slope and aspect), this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method, a trend analysis, and a gravity center model, and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. During 1981-2019, the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend. The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County, Gansu Province, and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019. During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019, the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest. During the study period (1981-2019), the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities. These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.     

Spatial-temporal dynamics of desert vegetation and its responses to climatic variations over the last three decades:a case study of Hexi region in Northwest China

Analysis of spatial-temporal variations of desert vegetation under the background of climate changes can provide references for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.In this study,we used the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies(GIMMS)NDVI data from 1982 to 2006 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)NDVI data from 2000 to 2013 to reveal the dynamics of desert vegetation in Hexi region of Northwest China over the past three decades.We also used the annual temperature and precipitation data acquired from the Chinese meteorological stations to analyze the response of desert vegetation to climatic variations.The average value of NDVImax(the maximum NDVI during the growing season)for desert vegetation in Hexi region increased at the rate of 0.65×10–3/a(P0.05)from 1982 to 2013,and the significant increases of NDVImax mainly appeared in the typical desert vegetation areas.Vegetation was significantly improved in the lower reaches of Shule and Shiyang river basins,and the weighted mean center of desert vegetation mainly shifted toward the lower reaches of the two basins.Almost 95.32% of the total desert vegetation area showed positive correlation between NDVImax and annual precipitation,indicating that precipitation is the key factor for desert vegetation growth in the entire study area.Moreover,the areas with non-significant positive correlation between NDVImax and annual precipitation mainly located in the lower reaches of Shiyang and Shule river basins,this may be due to human activities.Only 7.64% of the desert vegetation showed significant positive correlation between NDVImax and annual precipitation in the Shule River Basin(an extremely arid area),indicating that precipitation is not the most important factor for vegetation growth in this basin,and further studies are needed to investigate the mechanism for this phenomenon.     

Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015

The vegetation ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China,considered to be the′′natural laboratory′′of climate change in the world,has undergone profound changes under the stress of global change.Herein,we analyzed and discussed the spatial-temporal change patterns and the driving mechanisms of net primary productivity(NPP)in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015 based on the gravity center and correlation coefficient models.Subsequently,we quantitatively distinguished the relative effects of climate change(such as precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration)and human activities(such as grazing and ecological construction)on the NPP changes using scenario analysis and Miami model based on the MOD17A3 and meteorological data.The average annual NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest during 2000–2015.With respect to the inter-annual changes,the average annual NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2015,with a steep increase observed in 2005 and a high fluctuation observed from 2005 to 2015.In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,the regions with the increase in NPP(change rate higher than 10%)were mainly concentrated in the Three-River Source Region,the northern Hengduan Mountains,the middle and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River,and the eastern parts of the North Tibet Plateau,whereas the regions with the decrease in NPP(change rate lower than–10%)were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Ali Plateau.The gravity center of NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has moved southwestward during 2000–2015,indicating that the increment and growth rate of NPP in the southwestern part is greater than those of NPP in the northeastern part.Further,a significant correlation was observed between NPP and climate factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.The regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation were mainly located in the central and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,and the regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and temperature were mainly located in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.Furthermore,the relative effects of climate change and human activities on the NPP changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited significant spatial differences in three types of zones,i.e.,the climate change-dominant zone,the human activity-dominant zone,and the climate change and human activity interaction zone.These research results can provide theoretical and methodological supports to reveal the driving mechanisms of the regional ecosystems to the global change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.