新疆传统牧区牧民生产行为目标偏好的实证分析

以新疆传统牧区牧民为研究对象,采用配对比较法测定牧民生产行为目标偏好。基于实地调研数据,揭示牧民各个目标与不同生产行为选择之间的对应关系,为解释和预测牧民生产行为奠定基础。研究表明:牧民生产行为目标具有多元化特征,且其偏好具有显著的层次性;牧民"社会化小农"特征明显,其首要生产行为目标是"尽可能增加家庭收入";大部分传统牧民对牲畜保有量相当重视,同时也有很强的兼职意愿。     

1960-2014年内蒙古极端天气事件趋势分析

运用1960-2014年内蒙古46个站点的日气象资料,利用Rclimax软件分析WMO发布的12种极端气温指数及其时空变化规律.结果表明:1960-2014年,内蒙古极端气温指数变化与全球变暖相同步,冰日、霜日、冷日和冷夜指数趋于减少,而夏日、热夜、暖日、暖夜和生长季长度指数区域增大.极端最高(最低)指数呈增加的趋势,而气温日较差趋势则趋于减小.空间分布上,内蒙古西部极端天气指数变化明显,显示出地表裸露的地区对气候的变化敏感.相比于1960-1985年,1986-2014年气温上升更加的强烈,在此期间,冷指数(ID0、FD0、TN10和TX10)显著下降而暖指数(SU25、TR20、TN90和TX90)显著上升.1985年前各站点极端气温指数变化趋势复杂,而1986年后大部分站点冷(暖)指数表现为下降(上升)趋势.极端指数的变化与纬度和海拔相关性较弱,但各指数与经度却存在广泛的关联.北极涛动(AO)对内蒙古的气候有着一定的影响,各站点的极端指数与AO有显著相关,冷指数表现尤其明显.     

内蒙古高温酷暑天气时空分布特征及成因分析

应用1971～2008年内蒙古自治区117个观测站资料,选取64次较强高温酷暑天气过程,结合同期的NCEP再分析资料,应用统计分析和诊断分析方法,对内蒙古高温酷暑天气的时空分布特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明:内蒙古高温酷暑天气地域差异大,高温中心在阿拉善盟沙漠地区的拐子湖,年平均35℃高温日数达32天,也是全国的高温区之一;高温酷暑年日数有增长趋势,影响在增强;高温酷暑集中出现在盛夏季节6～8月,7月发生最多,占一半以上;最高温度出现在每日的14至17时,气温日较差大;高温酷暑天气可分为蒙古暖脊型、贝加尔湖高压坝型、副高西进型、乌拉尔山高脊型四个天气学类型,大陆暖高压脊的强烈发展和维持与高温酷暑天气密切相关;300hPa高空锋区的北退或断裂与大陆暖高压系统的形成和发展有很好的相关性;对流层中层的暖平流对大陆暖高压系统的发展强盛起到关键作用;500～850hPa厚度场可以更好的反映出整层气柱冷暖性质,其分布特征直接影响到内蒙古高温酷暑天气发生的部位和区域;蒙古暖高压控制区中盛行下沉气流,使得大气下沉增温,对流层中低层维持暖心结构,由于整层气柱很暖,低层减压形成了近地层的热低压,具有干热的特征。     

新疆参与旅游业牧民生计资本研究——以喀纳斯和乌鲁木齐县南山生态旅游区为例

农牧民生计资本是可持续生计研究框架的基础,决定了农牧民家庭生计策略的选择与结果。文中运用问卷调查与入户访谈相结合的方法,开展了新疆生态旅游发展典型区域内参与旅游业牧民生计资本的实证研究。通过采用计算赋值与标准化的数据预处理方法,借助社会统计软件工具,对样本牧民的生计资本水平进行了比较研究。结果发现样本生计资本总值仅为0.249,处于较低水平状态,其中物质资本水平最低,人力资本水平最高;不同生计资本水平的牧民分布很不均衡,自然资本和物质资本在0.2以下水平的牧民累积百分比分别为52.7%和79.1%;牧民家庭特征中家庭人口数最多的牧户生计资本总值最低,民族及调查区域的生计资本水平差异不大。     

黄河内蒙古段蒸发皿蒸发量变化特征

采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率方法,分析了内蒙古自治区境内26个常规气象观测站1959～2008年的20 cm口径蒸发皿蒸发量观测资料.结果表明,区域年、季平均蒸发皿蒸发量变化都呈下降趋势;但站点蒸发量与整个区域的蒸发量变化趋势并不完全一致,存在波动,在大部分站点年蒸发量变化趋势中则是春、夏两季的蒸发量变化趋势占主导地位...     

近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征

根据内蒙古115个气象站1971～2000年气象资料,采用改进的Selianinov干燥度计算公式,研究了内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空变化。结果表明:内蒙古干燥度空间分布具有明显地带性分布规律,即从西向东随经度增加干燥度逐渐变小,气候变得湿润。从年际变化的空间分布可以看出,30年来内蒙古地区气候变化大致分为两种类型:1)干湿交替型,位于西部的典型荒漠区和东北部的大兴安岭森林区。2)持续变干型,内蒙古中东北地区的半湿润区和半干旱区的分界线,30年来持续向东南方向推进,使得半湿润区面积缩小,半干旱区面积增加。从年际变化的时间分布来看,70年代,年平均干燥度呈现波动式下降,气候变化趋于湿润化;80年代,气候经历了先干后湿又干的变化过程,干燥度波动较大;90年代,气候经历了先湿润后急剧变干的变化过程,其中1995～2000年干燥度增幅为30年最快的时段。在六大生态类型分区中,典型荒漠区干燥度变化最为剧烈,且对内蒙古全区干燥度的贡献率最大,大兴安岭林区和草甸草原区的干燥度变化最小。从气候干湿状况的年代际变化可以看出,80年代是内蒙古全区气候干旱比较严重的年代。     

荒漠草原区畜牧业对气候变化的响应研究——以内蒙古苏尼特右旗为例

气候变化对自然生态环境及社会经济活动的影响日益明显,但县域畜牧业对气候变化响应研究较少。文中以苏尼特右旗为例,应用灰色关联分析法,基于经营制度,划分1976-1983、1984-1990、1991-2002、2003-2008四个时序段,将年均降水量、年均气温、草场载畜量、肉畜产品收购价格指数等作为驱动因素,分别定量分析了各因素对畜牧业产值和牲畜结构的影响。结果显示,作为外部环境因素,气候始终影响和限制畜牧业的发展,而在市场经济引入牧区后,市场因素对该地区畜牧业发展起到了极大的引导和推动作用。从长期看,该旗降水减少、气温升高、干旱加剧以及各种极端气候事件频发都必将是牧区畜牧业发展的主要环境影响因素,牧区畜牧业要实现可持续发展,气候变化不容忽视。     

近60 a来内蒙古极端降水时空变化及其影响

基于内蒙古地区41个气象站点1958-2017年的逐日降水数据,采用世界气象组织等推荐的9个极端降水指数,运用线性趋势分析、克里金插值法、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析和主成分分析等方法研究了内蒙古地区近60a来极端降水时空变化、周期规律和气象灾害效应。结果表明:内蒙古地区近60a来出现了干燥化趋势,即伴随着降水量的减少,各极端降水指数出现不同程度的下降趋势,以20世纪60年代和21世纪初下降最为明显。各极端降水指数倾向率在空间上大体呈现出从东西部向中部递减的规律,大都以集宁、呼和浩特、通辽和新巴尔虎右旗为低值中心。各极端降水指数的最大概率突变年为1995年,此后出现了不显著下降的趋势。各极端降水指数均存在3~5 a、14~17 a、20 a左右的周期变化。除连续无雨日数外,各极端降水指数与年降水量之间均存在较好的相关性。内蒙古极端降水变化导致该区旱灾与风灾增多加重,草原沙漠化加强,洪灾与低温冻害减少减轻,应有针对性地采取措施加强旱灾与风灾预防。     

Assessing ecological vulnerability in western China based on Time-Integrated NDVI data

Arid and semi-arid areas are the most vulnerable regions to climate change.Clear understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions and the ecosystem vulnerability is important for ecosystem management under the background of climate change.In this study,we conducted a vulnerability assessment on various ecosystems from 1982 to 2013 in western China with large areas of arid and semi-arid lands based on the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(TINDVI)data and climate data.The results indicated that grasslands were the most vulnerable ecosystem to climate change in western China,especially for those in Tibetan Plateau.Croplands in oases were not vulnerable to climate change compared to rain-fed croplands in semi-arid regions(e.g.Gansu and Inner Mongolia),which was attributed to the well-developed drip irrigation technology in oases.Desert and Gobi ecosystems were slightly vulnerable to climate change during the past several decades.The assessment results,as revealed in this study,can provide a reference for taking appropriate actions to protect the ecosystems in western China.     

利用MODIS卫星资料监测内蒙古地区大气总水汽量方法研究

由于大气可降水量在人工影响天气、天气预报、气候影响、大气辐射传输等方面都具有非常重要的作用,所以准确精细地监测水汽优为显得重要。随着卫星技术的日益发展壮大,很多地球观测技术从地基观测逐步发展成空基观测。卫星观测时空分辨率很高,而且精度也在不断地提高,逐步成为最主要的地球观测手段。文中利用GPS资料和地面湿度参量(地面水汽压、地面露点)修正了利用地面湿度参量、地理纬度和海拔高度等参量计算大气总水汽量的关系式的基础上研究建立了适合内蒙古地区的MODIS卫星近红外通道监测大气总水汽量方法。     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

内蒙古一次特强沙尘暴大风成因分析

2010年3月19日,内蒙古中西部地区发生了近几年最严重的沙尘暴天气。沙尘暴天气由蒙古国西部起沙,在内蒙古中西部地区加强,随着天气系统的演变,地面形成强沙尘暴或特强沙尘暴天气。利用常规观测资料及数值预报产品资料对3.19沙尘暴天气过程进行诊断分析,得到以下结论:3.19强沙尘暴、特强沙尘暴天气过程,是近地面前期强烈增温,导致地表热力不稳定,由蒙古气旋产生上升运动起沙。高空西北气流上,斜压扰动不稳定发展,高空冷平流激发了垂直于地面的锋面次级环流,地面气旋转为强冷锋过境,内蒙古中西部地区产生强沙尘暴天气。高空急流对沙尘暴天气的产生具有重要作用。高空急流出口区右侧,下沉气流落于地面冷锋后,引起大风,加强了沙尘暴天气。在冷锋移动过程中,冷高压强度少变,处于其前沿锋区内的山西、河北、河南、山东等地产生了扬沙或沙尘暴天气。     

Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation cover and the relationships with climate factors in Inner Mongolia based on GIMMS NDVI3g data

Variation in vegetation cover in Inner Mongolia has been previously studied by the remote sensing data spanning only one decade. However, spatial and temporal variations in vegetation cover based on the newly released GIMMS NDVI3g data spanning nearly thirty years have yet to be analyzed. In this study, we applied the methods of the maximum value composite(MVC) and Pearson's correlation coefficient to analyze the variations of vegetation cover in Inner Mongolia based on GIMMS NDVI3g data spanning from 1982 to 2013. Our results indicate that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.0003/a during the growing seasons despite of the drier and hotter climate in Inner Mongolia during the past three decades. We also found that vegetation cover in the southern agro-pastoral zone significantly increased, while it significantly decreased in the central Alxa. The variations in vegetation cover were not significant in the eastern and central regions. NDVI is positively correlated with precipitation(r=0.617, P=0.000) and also with air temperature(r=0.425, P=0.015), but the precipitation had a greater effect than the air temperature on the vegetation variations in Inner Mongolia.     

基于GIS技术的内蒙古地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划及评估研究

基于内蒙古地区87个旗县气象站1961～2008年的逐日降水量、暴雨洪涝灾情普查数据、1:25万数据高程和水系以及相关社会经济等基础资料,利用灾害学原理、风险度指数及GIS等技术方法,分析了内蒙古地区暴雨洪涝灾害形成的主要影响因子,提出了洪灾风险评价指标体系,确立了各因子在洪灾风险评估中的重要性-权重系数。在此基础上,利用GIS技术,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾抗灾能力等方面,综合分析区划及评估了内蒙古地区暴雨洪涝灾害的风险性。结果表明:呼伦贝尔市岭东、兴安盟南部、通辽市南部、鄂尔多斯市东部以及呼和浩特市和包头市城区是发生洪涝灾害风险最大区域;其它地区由于暴雨出现几率低、地形平坦、人口密度低、远离河网水系,发生洪涝灾害的风险性较低。     

近54年来晋陕蒙地区降水变化特征

以晋陕蒙地区60个气象站点1960—2013年逐日降水观测资料为基础,分析了晋陕蒙地区近54年来年均降水量和极端降水量的时空变化。研究发现,近54年来,晋陕蒙3个省(区):(1)年均降水量都在波动中呈缓慢的减少趋势,减少趋势均不显著,晋陕蒙三省(区)减少趋势分别为14.014、10.706 mm·10a-1和0.76 mm·10a-1;空间上内蒙古年均降水量呈现出明显的东西差异,由东部400~500 mm向西减少到200 mm以下,山西年均降水量由东南向西北递减,晋东南在500~800 mm,而晋西北在400~500 mm,陕西年均降水量表现为南多北少的特点,陕南地区大于800 mm,陕北下降到400~500 mm。(2)从变化趋势上来看,从东南向西北,降水出现由减少到增多的变化趋势,原来降水多的地区趋于减少,降水少的区域趋于增多,晋陕蒙地区内部降水量差异趋于减小。内蒙古东部减幅为0~1 mm·a-1,而西部增幅为0~1 mm·a-1。山西省南部最大减幅1~3 mm·a-1,而在晋东北减幅在3 mm·a-1以上。陕北和陕南地区减幅较小为0~1 mm·a-1,陕西中部大部分地区减幅较大为1~3 mm·a-1。(3)200 mm和400 mm降水等值线呈明显年代际波动,1970年代和1990年代偏西偏北,1980年代和2000年代偏东偏南。近年来夏季风影响范围缩小,内蒙古降水趋于减少,晋陕南部略有增加。(4)年均极端降水量呈不显著增加趋势,变化幅度大部分在0~1 mm·a-1,此时段内极端降水量未发生突变,极端降水量的增加,使本地区降水处于不稳定状态;极端降水强度方面,山西和陕西的极端降水强度明显大于内蒙古,山西和陕西极端降水强度由南向北依次递减,陕西南部大于50 mm·a-1,而北部降低到30~40 mm·a-1,山西省大部分地区在40~50mm·a-1,只有在北部为30~40 mm·a-1,内蒙古极端降水强度由东向西逐步减少,东部为30~40 mm·a-1,西部在20 mm·a-1以下,极端降水强度的变化趋势内部差异不大;极端降水日数呈弱增长,增长水平不显著,此时段内极端降水日数没有出现剧烈变化。     

基于CLIMEX的苜蓿籽象甲在中国的适生区分析

苜蓿籽象甲(Tychius medicaginis Bris.)在我国主要分布于新疆的北疆地区和甘肃,是新疆北疆苜蓿种子田重要害虫.本研究综合运用CLIMEX 3.0与ArcGIS 9.3对苜蓿籽象甲在我国目前以及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了研究.结果显示:目前气候条件下,苜蓿籽象甲在我国的适生区主要分布于新疆、甘肃、内蒙古等苜蓿主要种植地区.基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年,其中高度适生区范围由20.25％增加至23.88％,增加了3.63％;非适生区有所减少,由21.32％降至13.99％,减少了7.33％.可以看出,未来气候条件将更适宜首蓿籽象甲的生存.鉴于首蓿籽象甲在我国的适生性研究结果,建议进一步完善监测预警预报体系,采取相应有效的防控策略,加强对苜蓿籽象甲的防治措施,严防该虫的进一步传播扩散.     

气候变化与人类活动对内蒙古沙漠区气候生态变化的影响

本文通过对内蒙古阿拉善沙漠区气候变迁与生态环境变化的分析,分析气候变化和人类活动对该地区气候生态的影响,探讨该区域生态环境恶化的可能原因。     

Distribution pattern of Caragana species under the influence of climate gradient in the Inner Mongolia region,China

There is a strong climate gradient in the Inner Mongolia region, China, with solar radiation and air temperature increasing but precipitation decreasing gradually from the northeast to the southwest. Sixteen Cara- gana species exist in the Inner Mongolia region. These Caragana species exhibit a distribution pattern across moisture zones and form a geographical replacement series. In order to examine the mechanisms responsible for Caragana species distribution pattern, we selected 12 Caragana species that exhibit a distinct distribution pattern across multiple moisture zones in the Inner Mongolia region, and determined the relationships between the leaf ecological and physiological traits of these Caragana species and the aridity index and solar radiation. Along with the climatic drought gradient and the solar radiation intensification from the northeast to the southwest, leaf eco- logical characteristics of Caragana species changed drastically, i.e. the leaf shape gradually turned from flat into tegular or tubbish; the leaf hair became denser, longer and lighter in color; the leaf area, leaf biomass and specific leaf area(SLA) decreased significantly; the leaf thickness and the ratio of leaf thickness to leaf area increased sig- nificantly; and the leaf chlorophyll content decreased significantly. As the climatic drought stress increased, osmotic potentials of the main osmotic adjustment substances and the cytoplasmic ion concentration of Caragana species increased significantly. Meanwhile, the total and free water contents and water potential of leaves decreased sig- nificantly; the ratio of bound to free water increased significantly; the stomatal conductance and transpiration rate reduced significantly; and the water use efficiency(WUE) increased significantly. In addition, with the intensification of climatic drought stress, peroxidase(POD) and superoxide dismutase(SOD) activities in leaves increased sig- nificantly. As a result, the malondialdehyde(MDA) content increased while the oxygen free radical content decreased. Our results showed that most of the leaf ecological and physiological traits of the 12 Caragana species varied in ac- cordance with the climatic drought gradient in the Inner Mongolia region, which reflected the adaptation of the Cara- gana species to the local climate conditions. With relatively more active metabolism and faster growth, the Caragana species in the northeast had strong competitive abilities; on the other hand, with stronger resistance to climatic drought stress, the Caragana species in the southwest could survive in harsh environments. Based on our results, we con- cluded that both the environmental gradients and the adaptive responses of Caragana species to their environments played important roles in the formation of the Caragana species distribution pattern across the Inner Mongolia region.     

基于GIS的内蒙古人居环境适宜性评价

以1km×1km栅格为基本单元,建立地形、气候、水文和地被等人居环境单要素评价模型和人居环境综合评价模型,系统评估了内蒙古人居自然环境的适宜性与限制性,定量揭示了内蒙古人居环境的地域类型与空间格局。研究表明:内蒙古地形条件较好、气候偏寒、水文和植被条件较差,自然条件是影响内蒙古人口分布的重要因素;内蒙古人居环境以限制性为主要特征,自治区人居环境由41.15%的不适宜区、37.07%的临界适宜区以及21.78%的适宜区组成,不适宜人类长年生活和居住的地区面积最大;内蒙古人居环境的限制性,决定了自治区人口"大集中、小分散"的基本分布格局,全区88.03%的人口集中在面积有限的25.75×104km2人居环境适宜地区,人居环境临界适宜地区占地43.84×104km2,人口不足全区的10%;人居环境不适宜地区占地48.66×104km2,人口仅占全区的2.24%。     

内蒙古草地生产力时空变化及驱动因素分析

基于草地资源普查资料和GIS技术,以生物量与可食牧草比例作为影响草地生产力的主要因子,以县域为单位,对内蒙古草地生产力的时空变化特征及其分布的地域差异性进行了分析.结果表明:2000-2003年与1981-1985年相比,大部分地区生物单产及可食牧草产量均明显减少,可食牧草比例也明显降低;生物单产、可食牧草产量以及可食牧草比例高值区与次高值区均明显减少;大部分地区草量变化与草质变化具有时空一致性.最后从气候变化、草畜矛盾、现有草原管理制度及建设状况方面,对内蒙古草地生产力变化成因进行了分析.