Influence of river conditions during seaward migration and ocean conditions on survival rates of Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead

Petrosky CE, Schaller HA. Influence of river conditions during seaward migration and ocean conditions on survival rates of Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead.
Ecology of Freshwater Fish 2010: 19: 520–536. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S Abstract – Improved understanding of the relative influence of ocean and freshwater factors on survival of at‐risk anadromous fish populations is critical to success of conservation and recovery efforts. Abundance and smolt to adult survival rates of Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead decreased dramatically coincident with construction of hydropower dams in the 1970s. However, separating the influence of ocean and freshwater conditions is difficult because of possible confounding factors. We used long time‐series of smolt to adult survival rates for Chinook salmon and steelhead to estimate first year ocean survival rates. We constructed multiple regression models that explained the survival rate patterns using environmental indices for ocean conditions and in‐river conditions experienced during seaward migration. Survival rates during the smolt to adult and first year ocean life stages for both species were associated with both ocean and river conditions. Best‐fit, simplest models indicate that lower survival rates for Chinook salmon are associated with warmer ocean conditions, reduced upwelling in the spring, and with slower river velocity during the smolt migration or multiple passages through powerhouses at dams. Similarly, lower survival rates for steelhead are associated with warmer ocean conditions, reduced upwelling in the spring, and with slower river velocity and warmer river temperatures. Given projections for warming ocean conditions, a precautionary management approach should focus on improving in‐river migration conditions by increasing water velocity, relying on increased spill, or other actions that reduce delay of smolts through the river corridor during their seaward migration.     

Trends in Chinook salmon spawner abundance and total run size highlight linkages between life history,geography and decline

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) are foundational to social-ecological systems of the Northeast Pacific Rim and exhibit a rich diversity of life histories including in their adult migration timing, age at critical life-history transitions and marine feeding distributions. In recent decades Chinook have experienced declines across much of their native range; however, changes in productivity and abundance have rarely been evaluated in relation to life-history variation. To understand trends in Chinook salmon production, and how they are related to life history, we compiled time series data from the Fraser River to the Sacramento River on total run size (pre-fishery abundance) and escapement (post-fishery spawner abundance) and fit time series models to estimate trends across this bioregion. Our analysis revealed that most Chinook populations are declining, with negative trends in escapement (57 of 79) and total run (16 of 23) size. Trends were most acutely negative for interior spring Chinook in the Fraser, Columbia and Snake Rivers and most populations in California. Summer and fall Chinook had mixed trends, with several summer and fall upriver bright populations in the interior Columbia and Fraser exhibiting increases in abundance from the 1990s to 2019. Our research reveals widespread declines of this important species, but local complexity in trends that are mediated by population-level life history, migratory behaviours and watershed-scale restoration actions. Understanding linkages between life histories and resilience should inform rebuilding efforts for Chinook salmon and highlight the need to conserve intraspecific biodiversity.     

Year-to-year variability in ocean recovery rate of Columbia River Upriver Bright fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Unusually large returns of several stocks of fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the U.S. Northwest commonly occurred during the late 1980s. These synchronous events seem to have been due to ocean rather than freshwater conditions because natal rivers of these stocks were geographically disconnected. We examined year‐to‐year variability in cohort strength of one of these stocks, Upriver Bright (URB) fall Chinook salmon from the Columbia River Hanford Reach for brood years 1976–99 (recovery years 1979–2002). We used the ocean recovery rate of coded‐wire‐tag (CWT) fish as an index of cohort strength. To analyse year‐to‐year variability in the ocean recovery rate, we applied a log‐linear model whose candidate explanatory variables were ocean condition variables, fishing effort, age of recovered fish, and fish rearing type (hatchery versus wild). Explanatory variables in the best model included fishing effort, and the quadratic term of winter sea surface temperature (SST) measured from coastal waters of British Columbia, Canada during the fish's first ocean year. The coefficient of the quadratic term of SST was significantly negative, so the model shape was convex. Our findings can be used to infer year‐to‐year variability in cohort strength of other fall Chinook salmon whose life history and ocean distributions are similar to the URB fish.     

Reservoir entrapment and dam passage mortality of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Middle Fork Willamette River

Abstract – High‐head dams in Oregon’s Willamette River basin inhibit seaward migration and present significant mortality risks to ESA‐listed juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Over 7 years, we passively collected 13,365 downstream‐migrating juvenile salmon in rivers above and below Willamette dams. Most salmon emigrated from upstream sites in February–June, but passed dams in November–February when reservoirs were drawn down near annual lows, and access to deep‐water passage routes improved. Samples collected above reservoirs were dominated by subyearlings, whereas below‐dam samples were a phenotypically diverse mix of subyearling, yearling and older salmon. The life history data indicated that Willamette reservoirs seasonally entrap many salmon and some sea‐ready smolts probably residualise. Annual dam‐passage mortality estimates were 8–59% (mean = 26%). Individual salmon mortality risk increased significantly with body length and varied with reservoir elevation and discharge. Operational changes that allow timely volitional emigration and development of less hazardous passage routes would benefit this threatened population.     

Response of juvenile Chinook salmon to managed flow: lessons learned from a population at the southern extent of their range in North America

Fourteen years (1996–2009) of juvenile Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha (Walbaum), migration data on the regulated Stanislaus River, California, USA were used to evaluate how survival, migration strategy and fish size respond to flow regime, temperature and spawner density. An information theoretic approach was used to select the best approximating models for each of four demographic metrics. Greater cumulative discharge and variance in discharge during the migration period resulted in higher survival indices and a larger proportion of juveniles migrating as pre‐smolts. The size of pre‐smolt migrants was positively associated with spawner density, whereas smolt migrant size was negatively associated with temperature and positively associated with discharge. Monte Carlo techniques indicated high certainty in relationships between flow and survival, but relationships with juvenile size were less certain and additional research is needed to elucidate causal relationships. Flow is an integral part of the habitat template many aquatic species are adapted to, and mismatches between flow and life history traits can reduce the success of migration and the diversity of migratory life history strategies. The analyses presented here can be used to assist in the development of flow schedules to support the persistence of salmon in the Stanislaus River and provide implications for populations in other regulated rivers with limited and variable water supply.     

Energy dynamics of subyearling Chinook salmon reveal the importance of piscivory to short‐term growth during early marine residence

Variation in prey quantity and quality can influence growth and survival of marine predators, including anadromous fish that migrate from freshwater systems. The objective of this study was to examine the energy dynamics of subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) following freshwater emigration. To address this objective, a population of Chinook salmon and their marine prey were repeatedly sampled from June to September over 2 years in coastal waters off Oregon and Washington. Subyearlings from the same population were also reared under laboratory conditions. Using a bioenergetics model evaluated in the laboratory, we found that growth rate variability in the field was associated more with differences in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) consumption and less with variation in diet energy density or ocean temperature. Highest growth rates (2.43–3.22% body weight/day) occurred in months when anchovy biomass peaked, and the timing of peak anchovy biomass varied by year. Our results support a general pattern among subyearling Chinook salmon occurring from Alaska to California that feeding rates contribute most to growth rate variability during early marine residence, although dominant prey types can differ seasonally, annually, or by ecosystem. In the northern California Current, faster growth appears to be associated with the availability of age‐0 anchovy. Identifying factors that influence the seasonal development of the prey field and regulate prey quantity and quality will improve understanding of salmon growth and survival during early marine residence.     

Estimating thermal exposure of adult summer steelhead and fall Chinook salmon migrating in a warm impounded river

Rising river temperatures in western North America have increased the vulnerability of many Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations to lethal and sublethal risks. There is a growing need to predict and manage such risks, especially for populations whose life history or geography increases the likelihood of warm‐water exposure. We estimated thermal exposure of adult summer steelhead (O. mykiss) and fall‐run Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) as they migrated through a warm (often > 20 °C), 157‐km reach of the impounded Snake River, Washington. Archival temperature loggers and radiotelemetry were used to reconstruct thermal histories for 50 steelhead and 21 salmon. Encountered temperature maxima were mostly inside dam fishways and ranged from 15.8 to 24.0 °C (mean = 19.6 °C) for steelhead and from 18.0 to 21.6 °C (19.9 °C) for salmon. Behavioural thermoregulation was evident for ~50% of steelhead and ~30% of salmon in one of three reservoirs. Degree days (DDs) calculated from archival tags ranged from 74 to 973 DDs (median = 130) for steelhead and from 56 to 220 DDs (133) for salmon. Models using river temperature data and fish migration times accurately estimated total DDs for both species except some steelhead with extended thermoregulation. In a predictive application, we estimated exposure for 10,104 steelhead and 9071 Chinook salmon with passive integrated transponder‐tag detections at dams and found considerable DD variability across individuals, species and years. This estimation method, combined with baseline thermal surveys and existing monitoring infrastructure, can help to address long‐standing questions about how warm‐water exposure affects Snake River salmon and steelhead phenology, bioenergetics, physiology, survival and reproductive success.     

Life‐history differences of juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha across rearing locations in the Shasta River,California

Salmon from different locations in a watershed can have different life histories. It is often unclear to what extent this variation is a response to the current environmental conditions an individual experiences as opposed to local‐scale genetic adaptation or the environment experienced early in development. We used a mark–recapture transplant experiment in the Shasta River, CA, to test whether life‐history traits of juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha varied among locations, and whether individuals could adopt a new life history upon encountering new habitat type. The Shasta River, a Klamath River tributary, has two Chinook salmon spawning and juvenile rearing areas, a lower basin canyon (river km 0–12) and upper basin spring complex (river km 40–56), characterised by dramatically different in‐stream habitats. In 2012 and 2013, we created three experimental groups: (i) fish caught, tagged and released in the upper basin; (ii) fish caught at the river mouth (confluence with the Klamath River, river km 0), tagged and released in the upper basin; and (iii) fish caught at the river mouth, tagged and released in the lower basin. Fish released in the upper basin outmigrated later and at a larger size than those released in the lower basin. The traits of fish transplanted to the upper basin were similar to fish originating in the upper basin. Chinook salmon juvenile life‐history traits reflected habitat conditions fish experienced rather than those where they originated, indicating that habitat modification or transportation to new habitats can rapidly alter the life‐history composition of populations.     

Spawning distribution and abundance of a northern Chinook salmon population

Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), is an important biological and cultural resource in Alaska, but knowledge about Chinook salmon ecology is limited in many regions. From 2009 to 2012, spawning distribution and abundance of a northern Chinook salmon population on the Togiak River in south‐west Alaska were assessed. Chinook salmon preferred deeper mainstem channel spawning habitat, with 12% (14 of 118 tags in 2009) to 21% (22 of 106 tags in 2012) of radio‐tagged fish spawning in smaller order tributaries. Tributary spawners tended to have earlier run timing than mainstem spawners. Chinook salmon exhibited extended holding and backout (entering freshwater but returning to saltwater before completing anadromous migration) behaviours near the mouth of Togiak River, potentially prolonging their exposure to fishery harvest. Mark–recapture total annual run estimates (2010–2012) ranged from 11 240 (2011) to 18 299 (2012) fish. Exploitation of Chinook salmon ranged from 36% (2012) to 55% (2011) during the study period, with incidental fishery catches near the mouth of the river comprising the largest source of harvest.     

Alternative migratory strategies are widespread in subyearling Chinook salmon

Variation in life history traits within and across species is known to reflect adaptations to different environmental drivers through a diversity of mechanisms. Trait variation can also help buffer species and populations against extinction in fluctuating environments and against anthropogenic disturbances. Here, we examine the distribution and drivers of Ocean‐type Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) juvenile migratory life histories. We defined alternative migratory strategies according to whether individuals reared in the stream (natal rearing) or left shortly after hatching to rear elsewhere (non‐natal rearing). We then evaluated the frequency of migratory strategies across 16 populations with time series extending up to 25 years and evaluated the environmental variables that influenced variation in migration strategy. We found bimodal migration patterns and abrupt transitions in migrant sizes across all populations, supporting the widespread nature of alternative migratory strategies. Additionally, we found that the amount of freshwater rearing habitat available to juveniles, relative juvenile density and spring flow patterns significantly influenced the overall migration pattern for populations. Smaller streams and higher conspecific densities generally produced more non‐natal rearing migrants and larger streams and lower conspecific densities producing more natal rearing migrants. Our results shed light on previously unexplored patterns of juvenile migratory strategies and encourage broader consideration for how current conservation actions perform at protecting juvenile migratory diversity.     

Seasonal floodplain‐tidal slough complex supports size variation for juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Population diversity is a mechanism for resilience and has been identified as a critical issue for fisheries management, but restoration ecologists lack evidence for specific habitat features or processes that promote phenotypic diversity. Since habitat complexity may affect population diversity, it is important to understand how population diversity is partitioned across landscapes and among populations. In this study, we examined life history diversity based on size distributions of juvenile Central Valley Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within the Yolo Bypass, a remnant transitional habitat from floodplain to tidal sloughs in the upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE). We used a generalized least squares model with an autoregressive (AR1) correlation structure to describe the distribution of variation in fish size from 1998 to 2014, and tested the effect of two possible drivers of the observed variation: (i) environmental/seasonal drivers within the Yolo Bypass, and (ii) the juvenile Chinook source population within the Sacramento River and northern SFE. We found that the duration of floodplain inundation, water temperature variation, season, and sampling effort influenced the observed time‐specific size distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Yolo Bypass. Given the lack of seasonally inundated habitat and low thermal heterogeneity in the adjacent Sacramento River, these drivers of juvenile size diversification are primarily available to salmon utilizing the Yolo Bypass. Therefore, enhancement of river floodplain‐tidal slough complexes and inundation regimes may support the resilience of imperiled Central Valley Chinook salmon.     

Prespawn mortality in adult spring Chinook salmon outplanted above barrier dams

Keefer ML, Taylor GA, Garletts DF, Gauthier GA, Pierce TM, Caudill CC. Prespawn mortality in adult spring Chinook salmon outplanted above barrier dams.
Ecology of Freshwater Fish 2010: 19: 361–372. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S Abstract – Dams without fish passage facilities block access to much of the historic spawning habitat of spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Oregon’s Willamette River basin. Adult salmon are routinely outplanted above the dams to supplement natural production, but many die before spawning despite extensive suitable habitat. In 2004–2007, we examined prespawn mortality patterns using live detection and carcass recovery data for 242 radio‐tagged outplants. Total prespawn mortality was 48%, but variability was high, ranging from 0% to 93% for individual release groups. Prespawn mortality was strongly condition dependent, consistently higher for females than males and higher for early release groups. Across years, warm water temperature in the migration corridor and at the collection site was associated with sharply higher mortality. Results highlight a need for better evaluations of the effects of adult mortality on population reintroduction and recovery and relationships among prespawn mortality, dam‐related temperature change and salmon life history and behaviour.     

Demographic changes in Chinook salmon across the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The demographic structure of populations is affected by life history strategies and how these interact with natural and anthropogenic factors such as exploitation, climate change, and biotic interactions. Previous work suggests that the mean size and age of some North American populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) are declining. These trends are of concern because Chinook salmon are highly valued commercially for their exceptional size and because the loss of the largest and oldest individuals may lead to reduced population productivity. Using long‐term data from wild and hatchery populations, we quantified changes in the demographic structure of Chinook salmon populations over the past four decades across the Northeast Pacific Ocean, from California through western Alaska. Our results show that wild and hatchery fish are becoming smaller and younger throughout most of the Pacific coast. Proportions of older age classes have decreased over time in most regions. Simultaneously, the length‐at‐age of older fish has declined while the length‐at‐age of younger fish has typically increased. However, negative size trends of older ages were weak or non‐existent at the southern end of the range. While it remains to be explored whether these trends are caused by changes in climate, fishing practices or species interactions such as predation, our qualitative review of the potential causes of demographic change suggests that selective removal of large fish has likely contributed to the apparent widespread declines in average body sizes.     

Differences in sea migration between wild and reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Baltic Sea

The effect of origin, smolt size and year of release on the sea migration pattern of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Baltic Sea was examined by tagging experiments conducted in 1991–1993 on wild and reared smolts of the Simojoki river salmon stock. The tag recovery data analysed by log-linear models revealed significant differences in both spatial and temporal sea migrations between the wild and reared salmon; the variation was attributed to the year of release and to the origin of the fish. Grilse accounted for the majority of reared returners (76%) but for a smaller proportion (46%) of the wild fish. The effect of smolt size could be studied only in the smolt groups tagged in 1991. Wild fish were more frequently (71%) caught in the Baltic Main Basin than were reared fish (51%) during their second sea year, and the size variation between wild and reared smolts did not explain the recovery site. No such differences in spatial distribution were found during the third sea year. The tagging place (hatchery/trap) of the reared fish did not affect their later sea migration. The differences in sea migration patterns suggest that the wild salmon are more vulnerable to the intensive salmon fishery in the Baltic Main Basin than are reared fish.     

Retrospective analysis of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) marine growth and condition in the northwest Atlantic based on tag‐recovery data

The life history of North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is characterized by extensive round‐trip migrations between freshwater rearing habitats and marine feeding grounds off the coasts of Canada and Greenland. Growth is rapid during the marine migration, and growth rate and condition factor may be indicators of salmon health during this period. Growth data were evaluated from a tag‐recovery program conducted from 1969 to 1991 using hatchery‐reared Atlantic salmon smolts released in the Penobscot River, Maine, U.S.A. Information from recaptures of 3167 salmon that were at large in the marine environment for 1 month to 3 yr was analyzed. Length–weight measurements coupled with time‐at‐large data were used to estimate von Bertalanffy and allometric growth parameters specific to the marine phase. Variations in growth and condition factor in relation to smolt age, release date, and temperature conditions in the northwest Atlantic were also examined. The von Bertalanffy k parameter declined with ordinal release date, indicating faster growth rates during the first year of smolts released earlier in the spring. The 2‐yr‐old smolts had a larger k than 1‐yr‐old smolts, although 1‐yr‐old smolts grew to a larger asymptotic size. Sea surface temperature had variable effects on growth parameters and condition factor, with temperature at the beginning of the migration and in overwintering habitat during the first year at sea having the greatest influence on length–weight relationships. Determining the mechanisms that influence growth of individuals during the marine phase will help elucidate the factors responsible for historic growth trends, establishing a baseline for current research.     

Warm oceans exacerbate Chinook salmon bycatch in the Pacific hake fishery driven by thermal and diel depth-use behaviours

Fisheries bycatch impacts marine species globally and understanding the underlying ecological and behavioural mechanisms could improve bycatch mitigation and forecasts in novel conditions. Oceans are rapidly warming causing shifts in marine species distributions with unknown, but likely, bycatch consequences. We examined whether thermal and diel depth-use behaviours influenced bycatch of a keystone species (Chinook salmon; Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) in the largest fishery on the US West Coast (Pacific hake; Merluccius productus, Merlucciidae) with annual consequences in a warming ocean. We used Generalized Additive Models with 20 years of data including 54,509 hauls from the at-sea hake fishery spanning Oregon and Washington coasts including genetic information for five salmon populations. Our results demonstrate that Chinook salmon bycatch rates increased in warm ocean years explained by salmon depth-use behaviours. Chinook salmon typically occupy shallower water column depths compared to hake. However, salmon moved deeper when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm and at night, which increased overlap with hake and exacerbated bycatch rates. We show that night fishing reductions (a voluntary bycatch mitigation strategy) are effective in reducing salmon bycatch in cool SSTs by limiting fishing effort when diel vertical movements bring salmon deeper but becomes less effective in warm SSTs as salmon seek deeper thermal refugia during the day. Thermal and diel behaviours were more pronounced in southern compared with northern salmon populations. We provide mechanistic support that climate change may intensify Chinook salmon bycatch in the hake fishery and demonstrate how an inferential approach can inform bycatch management in a changing world.     

Influence of estuary conditions on the recovery rate of coded‐wire‐tagged Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an ocean fishery

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) populations within the highly modified San Francisco Estuary, California, have seen precipitous declines in recent years. To better understand this decline, a decade of coded‐wire tag release and recovery data for juvenile salmon was combined with physicochemical data to construct models that represented alternative hypotheses of estuarine conditions that influence tag recovery rate in the ocean. An information theoretic approach was used to evaluate the weight of evidence for each hypothesis and model averaging was performed to determine the level of support for variables that represented individual hypotheses. A single best model was identified for salmon released into the Sacramento River side of the estuary, whereas two competitive models were selected for salmon released into the San Joaquin River side of the estuary. Model averaging found that recovery rates were greatest for San Joaquin River releases when estuary water temperatures were lower, and salmon were released at larger sizes. Recovery rate of Sacramento releases was greatest during years with better water quality. There was little evidence that large‐scale water exports or inflows influenced recovery rates in the ocean during this time period. These results suggest that conceptual models of salmon ecology in estuaries should be quantitatively evaluated prior to implementation of recovery actions to maximise the effectiveness of management and facilitate the recovery of depressed Chinook populations.     

Early ocean distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon in an upwelling ecosystem

Extreme variability in abundance of California salmon populations is often ascribed to ocean conditions, yet relatively little is known about their marine life history. To investigate which ocean conditions influence their distribution and abundance, we surveyed juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within the California Current (central California [37°30′N) to Newport, Oregon (44°00′N]) for a 2‐week period over three summers (2010–2012). At each station, we measured chlorophyll‐a as an indicator of primary productivity, acoustic‐based metrics of zooplankton density as an indicator of potential prey availability and physical characteristics such as bottom depth, temperature and salinity. We also measured fork lengths and collected genetic samples from each salmon that was caught. Genetic stock identification revealed that the majority of juvenile salmon were from the Central Valley and the Klamath Basin (91–98%). We constructed generalized logistic‐linear negative binomial hurdle models and chose the best model(s) using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to determine which covariates influenced the salmon presence and, at locations where salmon were present, determined the variables that influenced their abundance. The probability of salmon presence was highest in shallower waters with a high chlorophyll‐a concentration and close to an individual's natal river. Catch abundance was primarily influenced by year, mean fork length and proximity to natal rivers. At the scale of sampling stations, presence and abundance were not related to acoustic indices of zooplankton density. In the weeks to months after ocean entry, California's juvenile Chinook salmon population appears to be primarily constrained to coastal waters near natal river outlets.     

A survey of microparasites present in adult migrating Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in south‐western British Columbia determined by high‐throughput quantitative polymerase chain reaction

Microparasites play an important role in the demography, ecology and evolution of Pacific salmonids. As salmon stocks continue to decline and the impacts of global climate change on fish populations become apparent, a greater understanding of microparasites in wild salmon populations is warranted. We used high‐throughput, quantitative PCR (HT‐qRT‐PCR) to rapidly screen 82 adult Chinook salmon from five geographically or genetically distinct groups (mostly returning to tributaries of the Fraser River) for 45 microparasite taxa. We detected 20 microparasite species, four of which have not previously been documented in Chinook salmon, and four of which have not been previously detected in any salmonids in the Fraser River. Comparisons of microparasite load to blood plasma variables revealed some positive associations between Flavobacterium psychrophilum, Cryptobia salmositica and Ceratonova shasta and physiological indices suggestive of morbidity. We include a comparison of our findings for each microparasite taxa with previous knowledge of its distribution in British Columbia.     

Salish Sea Chinook salmon exhibit weaker coherence in early marine survival trends than coastal populations

Identifying factors that influence anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) population dynamics is complicated by their diverse life histories and large geographic range. Over the last several decades, Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) populations from coastal areas and the Salish Sea have exhibited substantial variability in abundance. In some cases, populations within the Salish Sea have experienced persistent declines that have not rebounded. We analyzed a time series of early marine survival from 36 hatchery Chinook salmon populations spanning ocean entry years 1980–2008 to quantify spatial and temporal coherence in survival. Overall, we observed higher inter‐population variability in survival for Salish Sea populations than non‐Salish Sea populations. Annual survival patterns of Salish Sea populations covaried over smaller spatial scales and exhibited less synchrony among proximate populations relative to non‐Salish Sea populations. These results were supported by multivariate autoregressive state space (MARSS) models which predominantly identified region‐scale differences in survival trends between northern coastal, southern coastal, Strait of Georgia, and Puget Sound population groupings. Furthermore, Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) of regional survival trends showed that survival of southern coastal populations was associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, a large‐scale ocean circulation pattern, whereas survival of Salish Sea populations was not. In summary, this study demonstrates that survival patterns in Chinook salmon are likely determined by a complex hierarchy of processes operating across a broad range in spatial and temporal scales, presenting challenges to the management of mixed‐stock fisheries.