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Boris Dewitte Carlos Conejero Marcel Ramos Luis Bravo Véronique Garçon Carolina Parada Javier Sellanes Ariadna Mecho Praxedes Muñoz Carlos F. Gaymer 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2021,31(2):232-252
- The largest changes in the circulation of the South-eastern Pacific resulting from global warming are associated with the southward shift and intensification of the anticyclone and with coastal surface warming. Coastal upwelling is projected to be increase off central Chile, due to an increase in equatorward winds, although increased oceanic stratification and associated enhanced nearshore turbulence will yield an onshore deepening/flattening of the thermocline.
- The overall increase in south-easterly trade winds of the South-eastern Pacific in a warmer climate are likely to increase the connectivity pattern between Juan Fernandez and Desventuradas islands, and along the Sala y Gomez ridge, through increasing wind-driven mean ocean currents.
- Deoxygenation associated with the warmer temperatures and changes in ventilation are likely to modify marine habitat and the respiratory barriers of species in the seamounts located in the vicinity of the limits of the minimum oxygen zone.
- In the South-eastern Pacific, the prevailing 2D understanding of the responses of marine life to climate change needs to be expanded to 3D approaches, integrating the vertical habitat compression of marine organisms as a result of ocean warming and deoxygenation, as climate velocities for temperature and oxygen have contrasting vertical and horizontal patterns.
- There is a need for regional biogeochemical-coupled modelling studies dedicated to the Chilean islands in order to provide an integrated view of the impact of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. deoxygenation, increased stratification, and climate shift) at the scale required for addressing socio-ecological interactions.
- A refined understanding of the large-scale biogeography and spatial dynamics of marine populations through experimentation with high-resolution regional ocean models is a prerequisite for scaling-up regional management planning and optimizing the conservation of interconnected marine ecosystems across large scales.
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Jonathan de Jesús Sauz-Sánchez Rocío Rodiles-Hernández Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez Manuel Mendoza-Carranza 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2021,31(10):2737-2751
- Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution patterns of freshwater fish at various spatio-temporal scales. Tropical freshwater fish are vulnerable, especially in areas where a high impact of climate change is predicted; thus, there is an increasing need to predict these shifts to determine conservation and adaptation strategies.
- Ecological niche models offer a reliable way to predict the effects of climate change on species distribution. Potential shifts in the distribution of tropical fish were tested under two scenarios (4.5 – moderate and 8.5 – extreme) with three general circulation models for years 2050 and 2070 using maximum entropy software using as models two predatory species – the tropical gar Atractosteus tropicus and the giant cichlid Petenia splendida.
- The potential distribution of both species was associated with warm and humid–sub-humid conditions. Future projections showed a higher availability of suitable areas for both species resulting from the expansion of warmer conditions in the middle and upper basins of the Central American mountain range and centre of the Yucatan Peninsula.
- Ecological niche models of keystone or umbrella species such as A. tropicus and P. splendida could be useful to support conservation plans of protected areas. The potential distribution of both species covers areas of high suitability including six important biosphere reserves in Mexico, three protected areas in Guatemala and part of the Mesoamerican biological corridor.
- Despite the potential expansion of the present distribution range suggested by the models, it is important to consider the biological and ecological requirements of the species and the ecological implications of these potential shifts in distribution. Both scenarios could have several implications at genetic, population, and ecosystem levels.
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Ruth Callaway Andrew P. Shinn Suzanne E. Grenfell James E. Bron Gavin Burnell Elizabeth J. Cook Margaret Crumlish Sarah Culloty Keith Davidson Robert P. Ellis Kevin J. Flynn Clive Fox Darren M. Green Graeme C. Hays Adam D. Hughes Erin Johnston Christopher D. Lowe Ingrid Lupatsch Shelagh Malham Anouska F. Mendzil Thom Nickell Tom Pickerell Andrew F. Rowley Michele S. Stanley Douglas R. Tocher James F. Turnbull Gemma Webb Emma Wootton Robin J. Shields 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2012,22(3):389-421
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Leonardo Manir Feitosa Lucas Pereira Martins Leandro Augusto de Souza Junior Rosangela Paula Lessa 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2020,30(5):882-891
- Updated distribution ranges are crucial for conservation status assessments. Comprehensive analyses combining published literature and available data on historical catches and species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools that could improve the prediction of more realistic scenarios for some species, especially those with limited information available and facing multiple threats.
- The present study aimed at generating an updated distribution for the smalltail shark Carcharhinus porosus, one of the most threatened and understudied shark species of the western Atlantic Ocean. Estimates of the key areas for this species conservation based on the SDMs, and trends in catch probabilities throughout its distribution range are provided.
- Four algorithms (BIOCLIM, Domain, Mahalanobis, and Maximum Entropy) were used to model the distribution of C. porosus and calculate its habitat suitability based on marine environmental variables. To assess historical catch probability trends, we built a generalized linear model from published and grey literature data. This analysis was used to estimate catch probability as an indication of population trends.
- SDMs suggest that the northern coast of South America (NCSA) harbours the most suitable habitats for C. porosus in the world, which was expected given its historically high catch rate in this region. In addition, there was a continuously declining catch probability trend starting in the 1970s. However, the decline was smaller for the NCSA as compared with the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern South America coast.
- Results indicate that the NCSA should be considered the currently most important area in the world for this species conservation. Furthermore, the lack of data throughout Central and South American marine regions hampers the evaluation of extinction risk throughout its updated distribution. Thus, research in these areas is urgently required for a more comprehensive conservation status assessment.
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Bryony L. Townhill Elena Couce Jonathan Tinker Susan Kay John K. Pinnegar 《Fish and Fisheries》2023,24(5):848-862
Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections. 相似文献
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- To facilitate conservation planning, there is a need for improved confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts on species distributions. Towards that end, there have been calls for the development of process-based models to test hypotheses concerning the mechanisms by which temperature shapes distribution and to corroborate forecasts of correlative models.
- Models of temperature-dependent growth (TDG) were developed for two Australian riverine blackfishes with disjunct longitudinal distributions: Gadopsis marmoratus (occupies lower, warmer elevations) and Gadopsis bispinosus (occupies higher, cooler elevations). The models were used to (a) predict blackfish monthly and annual growth dynamics under current and future climate scenarios within different elevation bands of their current distribution, and (b) test the hypothesis that, under the current climate, the distributions of each species would be positively correlated with predicted TDG.
- Increases in mean annual growth were forecast for both species under all warming scenarios, across all elevation bands. Both species currently occupy annual habitat temperatures below those optimal for growth. Under certain warming scenarios, the predicted increases in annual growth belie forecasts of within-year dynamics that may interact with the phenology of blackfish to impair recruitment.
- There was not a significant positive linear relationship between predicted TDG and observed abundance among river segments for either species. Both species were strongly under-represented where annual growth rates were forecast to be optimal and over-represented where growth rates were forecast to be intermediate.
- Confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts based on correlative models will increase when those forecasts are consistent with a mechanistic understanding of how specific drivers (e.g. water temperature) affect processes (e.g. growth). This process-based study revealed surprises concerning how future climates may affect fish growth dynamics, showing that although the blackfish distributions are correlated with temperature the temperature-dependent mechanisms underpinning that correlation require further investigation.
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Leandro Nole Eduardo Arnaud Bertrand Thierry Frdou Alex Souza Lira Rayssa Siqueira Lima Beatrice Padovani Ferreira Frdric Menard Flvia Lucena‐Frdou 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2020,30(4):761-774
- Tetraodontiformes fishes play a critical role in benthic and demersal communities and are facing threats due to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. However, they are poorly studied worldwide. To improve knowledge on the socio‐ecological significance and conservation of Tetraodontiformes a review of literature addressing the diversity, ecology, use and trade, conservation, and main threats of Tetraodontiformes combined with a comprehensive in situ dataset from two broad‐range multidisciplinary oceanographic surveys performed along the Tropical Brazilian Continental Shelf was undertaken.
- Twenty‐nine species were identified, being primarily found on coral reefs and algal ecosystems. At these habitats, tetraodontids present highly diversified trophic categories and might play an important role by balancing the marine food web
- Coral reef ecosystems, especially those near to the shelf break, seem to be the most important areas of Tetraodontiformes fishes, concentrating the highest values of species richness, relative abundance and the uncommon and Near Threatened species.
- Ninety per cent of species are commonly caught as bycatch, being also used in the ornamental trade (69%) and as food (52%), serving as an important source of income for artisanal local fisheries.
- Tetraodontiformes are threatened by unregulated fisheries, overexploitation, bycatch, and habitat loss due to coral reef degradation and the potential effects of climate change. These factors are more broadly impacting global biodiversity, food security, and other related ecosystem functions upon which humans and many other organisms rely.
- We recommend the following steps that could improve the conservation of Tetraodontiformes along the tropical Brazilian Continental shelf and elsewhere: (i) data collection of the commercial, incidental, ornamental and recreational catches; (ii) improvement of the current legislation directed at the marine ornamental harvesting; (iii) increase efforts focused on the education and conservation awareness in coastal tourism and communities; and, most important, (iv) creation of marine reserves networks in priority areas of conservation, protecting either the species and key habitats for its survival.
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Cristina Milani Adriana Vella Pavlos Vidoris Aristidis Christidis Emmanouil Koutrakis 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2021,31(Z1):76-86
- The abundance, distribution and diet of the short-beaked common dolphin were investigated as part of the first detailed study on cetacean populations in the North Aegean Sea. Since 2004, the area has been proposed by national and international entities as a marine protected area for common dolphins and other cetacean species owing to its high biodiversity.
- Abundance and distribution were investigated between 2005 and 2013 through dedicated scientific marine transect surveys, covering 14,701 km, in sea conditions of Beaufort sea state 3 and below. The line-transect sampling method was used to estimate relative abundance, using Distance 6.0 software. Encounter rate for this species in the study area was estimated to be 0.24 groups/100 km (1.5 dolphins/100 km), with a mean group size of 6.88 (SE = 1.90).
- Common dolphin sightings were analysed for correlations with eight environmental variables (distance from the coast, depth, slope, median salinity, gradient of salinity, median temperature, gradient of temperature and mean current) using generalized additive modelling. Common dolphin sightings were significantly correlated to depth, temperature and salinity.
- Stomach-content analyses were performed on eight suitable samples from common dolphins stranded in the study area. The trophic level of the species was calculated, indicating that this species is a top predator.
- This research provides the first estimates for abundance and distribution and the first diet analysis for this Mediterranean Endangered dolphin species in the study area based on a year-round long-term study.