Quantifying links between instream woody habitat and freshwater fish species in south‐eastern Australia to inform waterway restoration

1. Removal of instream woody habitat (IWH) is one factor attributed to declines in fish populations worldwide. Restoration of IWH to help fish populations recover is now common; however, quantitative predictions about the outcomes of these interventions is rare. As such, quantitative links between IWH and fish abundance is of interest to managers to inform conservation and restoration activities.
2. Links between instream habitat attributes, especially IWH, and selected fish species of recreational, cultural, and ecological significance were explored at 335 sites spanning eight streams across south‐eastern Australia. Data were collected on fish abundance and length, IWH density and a range of other habitat attributes at a scale that incorporated at least one of each of the major mesohabitat types (functional river elements). The data were analysed using Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear mixed models to examine fish habitat associations and used to make quantitative predictions of responses to future restoration.
3. Strong positive relationships were found between fish abundance and IWH density and the strength of this relationship varied between species and waterways. Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii), a species commonly targeted by IWH interventions, displayed the strongest association with IWH density. River blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) also showed a significant relationship with IWH, but this effect was waterway specific. Fish length was only related to IWH for river blackfish. These results may reflect differences in the life histories of these two species. We suggest that differences in habitat association through ontogeny may be more relevant at smaller spatial scales.
4. The results generated in this study can be used to guide waterway restoration and develop quantitative predictions about how fish might respond to IWH interventions across south‐eastern Australia. This approach provides a powerful quantitative framework within which to explore management options and objectives, and to test our predicted responses to habitat restoration.

     

Riparian restoration offsets predicted population consequences of climate warming in a threatened headwater fish

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Modelling the potential distribution of two tropical freshwater fish species under climate change scenarios

1. Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution patterns of freshwater fish at various spatio-temporal scales. Tropical freshwater fish are vulnerable, especially in areas where a high impact of climate change is predicted; thus, there is an increasing need to predict these shifts to determine conservation and adaptation strategies.
2. Ecological niche models offer a reliable way to predict the effects of climate change on species distribution. Potential shifts in the distribution of tropical fish were tested under two scenarios (4.5 – moderate and 8.5 – extreme) with three general circulation models for years 2050 and 2070 using maximum entropy software using as models two predatory species – the tropical gar Atractosteus tropicus and the giant cichlid Petenia splendida.
3. The potential distribution of both species was associated with warm and humid–sub-humid conditions. Future projections showed a higher availability of suitable areas for both species resulting from the expansion of warmer conditions in the middle and upper basins of the Central American mountain range and centre of the Yucatan Peninsula.
4. Ecological niche models of keystone or umbrella species such as A. tropicus and P. splendida could be useful to support conservation plans of protected areas. The potential distribution of both species covers areas of high suitability including six important biosphere reserves in Mexico, three protected areas in Guatemala and part of the Mesoamerican biological corridor.
5. Despite the potential expansion of the present distribution range suggested by the models, it is important to consider the biological and ecological requirements of the species and the ecological implications of these potential shifts in distribution. Both scenarios could have several implications at genetic, population, and ecosystem levels.

     

Applications and future challenges in marine species distribution modeling

• 1. Anthropogenic climate change affects both phenology and distribution patterns of the world's biota including marine species. During the last decade, species distribution models have been more frequently used to assess the potential distributions of species and possible effects of climate change. However, unlike for terrestrial species, there have been few investigations assessing climate change effects on distribution patterns of marine organisms.
• 2. An overview of marine species distribution modelling is given. Possibilities of how to characterize and project the environmental niches of species onto climatic change scenarios are highlighted and novel techniques for addressing specific needs in a 3‐D context are proposed. A detailed introduction into different modelling tools and databases for environmental parameters given provides a starting point for the application of these models.
• 3. Application of a species distribution model and its projections onto a glacial and future scenario on a global scale are presented for the great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) for illustrative purposes. An approach for addressing marine migratory species with seasonal distribution patterns is presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

     

Modelling effects of disturbance on population dynamics of generalized crayfish life history strategies

1. Crayfish play a crucial ecological role and are often considered a keystone species within freshwater ecosystems; however, North American crayfish species face disturbance and ecological threats including invasive species and intensified drought.
2. Demographic models can allow examination of population dynamics of a targeted species under a wide variety of disturbance scenarios. In this study, crayfish population dynamics were modelled and their responses to simulated biological invasions and drought were assessed.
3. As life history data on crayfish are relatively rare, models were used to explore the population viability of four generalized species with distinct life history strategies under 11 disturbance scenarios. RAMAS-Metapop was used to construct stage-based demographic metapopulation models parameterized using vital rates from established literature sources.
4. Models indicated that populations respond differentially to disturbance based on life history. However, both r- and K-selected species appear to be highly susceptible to decline when faced with the additive effects of reduced carrying capacity resulting from invasion and reduced survival rates caused by drought.
5. Constructing models that explore a broad array of life histories and disturbance regimes can provide managers with tools to develop generalized, widely applicable conservation strategies in data-depauperate systems.

     

Dolphin population specialized in foraging with artisanal fishers requires zero-bycatch management to persist

1. The small population paradigm assumes that populations with low numbers of individuals intrinsically have a high probability of extinction. The small population of Lahille’s bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus gephyreus that specializes in foraging with artisanal fishers in Laguna, southern Brazil, faces human pressures including bycatch in fishing gear. The viability of this population was modelled over 30 and 100 years under different levels of bycatch, including the current scenario of two bycatches every year, two scenarios with higher incidence of bycatches and three management scenarios. The sensitivity of predicted growth rates to fixed-proportion and observed-variation changes in life history parameters was explored.
2. The current scenario predicted a declining population (r = −0.014; λ = 0.986) with a high probability of extinction in the long term (PE = 0.71). A small increase in bycatches would result in a marked increase in the probability of extinction. Management scenarios seem promising, but only the zero-bycatch management scenario would make the difference between a declining and an increasing population.
3. As expected for slow-growing species, population growth rate was most sensitive to proportional changes in adult female and juvenile survival. However, considering observed variation in vital rates, population dynamics were most influenced by variation in reproductive rates.
4. To determine the highest priority for management action, another simulation was made of how additional threat scenarios of recognized human activities (i.e. bycatch influencing adult survival and increased underwater noise or pollution influencing calf survival) would affect population dynamics. Population growth rate was very sensitive to changes in adult bycatch (especially females), as expected, and only subtly sensitive to a reduction in calf survival.
5. The current level of bycatch is unsustainable. Bycatch needs to be eliminated to maximize the probability of long-term persistence of this dolphin population. However, this population’s persistence could be threatened by natural variation in reproductive rates.

     

Climate variability and trends in the reproductive habitat of the critically endangered hooded grebe

1. The population of the critically endangered hooded grebe (Podiceps gallardoi) has decreased drastically during recent decades. The effects of climate change on their reproductive area (Southern Patagonia) have been proposed as one of the potential causes of their critical situation. However, there is much uncertainty about climate variability and climate trends at local scales in Patagonia, and their effects on the hooded grebe habitat.
2. Variability and trends in temperature, precipitation, and wind from 1960 to 2016 in one of the most important reproductive areas of hooded grebe – the Lake Strobel plateau – were analysed. A Landsat satellite image series (1973–2016) was used to evaluate changes in lake area in the region.
3. Generalized linear models were used to analyse the relationship between the variation in lake area and climatic variables, including the Antarctic Oscillation Mode (AAO) index, which is the most important year to year pattern in climate variability at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.
4. High inter‐annual variability and increasing coefficients of variation in precipitation and wind were found, as well as a significant positive trend in temperature. Total lake area, as well as the area specifically used by hooded grebe to reproduce, decreased significantly over time, with high inter‐annual variability. Variation in lake area was significantly correlated with variation in precipitation, and with the AAO index.
5. The loss of reproductive habitat may force the hooded grebe to use sub‐optimal environments, such as lakes with lower food supply, lower macrophyte cover, and less protection from wind – a potential major handicap for this declining species.
6. Information on lake variation in response to climatic variability could be used to guide hooded grebe conservation strategies, directing more resources and special efforts to those reproductive lakes that are more resilient to the effects of climate fluctuations.

     

Effects of low pH and high temperature on two Palythoa spp. and predator–prey interactions in the subtropical eastern Atlantic

1. In the current context of climate change, benthic cnidarians of the genus Palythoa have been suggested to be resistant owing to their intrinsic biological characteristics. In tropical regions, some species are currently proliferating in areas where environmental conditions are less suitable for other organisms, even replacing hard coral ecosystems.
2. Considering their tropical affinities, phase-shifts towards Palythoa-dominated areas could become more frequent in future climate change scenarios, leading to changes in ecosystem organization. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change stressors in two common Palythoa spp. with different habitat affinities within a subtropical region, and the effect upon their predator–prey interactions.
3. The results of this experimental study demonstrated that colonies of P. aff. clavata and P. caribaeorum were significantly affected by exposure to temperature and pH conditions predicted for 2100 in the Canary Islands, during 62 days.
4. Despite zoantharians’ lack of carbonate in their body wall, Palythoa spp. were most affected in their growth rates by lowered pH, and colonies significantly decreased in weight and size. Although all colonies exhibited symptoms of bleaching at high temperature, a reduction in chlorophyll content was also observed at low pH.
5. Predation by Platypodiella picta crabs decreased on P. aff. clavata exposed to acidic conditions, which may compensate for the lowered ecological performance of the species in these climate change conditions. In contrast, P. picta was able to actively feed on P. caribaeorum colonies regardless of the experimental conditions.
6. Despite being suggested as winner species in a climate change scenario, our study demonstrated that low pH negatively impacted Palythoa spp. survival. If the species are not able to acclimatize to the new conditions, changes in their populations may be expected, although their magnitude could be ameliorated by means of a decrease in predation rates.

     

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

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Niche‐based species distribution models and conservation planning for endangered freshwater crayfish in south‐western Germany

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Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration

1. Changes in migration timing, resulting from the alteration in river continuity or the effect of climate change, can have major consequences on the population dynamics of diadromous fish. Forecasting the phenology of fish migration is thus critically important to implement management actions aimed at protecting fish during their migration.
2. In this study, an 11‐year monitoring survey of Atlantic salmon smolts (Salmo salar) from the Ourthe River, Belgium, was analysed within a European Special Area of Conservation to improve the understanding of environment‐induced spring migration. A logistic model was fitted to forecast smolt migration and to calculate phenological indicators for management, i.e. the onset, end, and duration of migration, while accounting for the influence of photoperiod, water temperature, and hydrological conditions.
3. The results indicated that the photo‐thermal units accumulated by smolts above a 7°C temperature threshold was a relevant proxy to reflect the synergistic effect between temperature and photoperiod on smolt migration. After integrating the effect of river flow pulses, the model accurately explained the inter‐annual changes in migration timing (R² = 0.95). The model predictions provide decisive management information to identify sensitive periods during which mitigation measures (e.g. hydropower turbine shutdown, river discharge management) should be conducted to promote smolt survival.
4. The model was used to predict phenological characteristics under future scenarios of climate change. The results suggest a joint effect of hydrological alterations and water warming. Temperature increases of 1–4°C were associated with earlier initiation of migration, 6–51 days earlier, and spring flood events greatly influenced the duration of the migration period. Accordingly, the combined effects of human‐induced modifications of the hydrological regimes and increasing temperatures could result in a mismatch between the smolt and favourable survival conditions in the marine environment.

     

Effects of changing temperature on benthic marine life in Britain and Ireland

• 1. The coastal waters surrounding Britain and Ireland became warmer during the 20th century and, according to the UK Climate Impact Programme 2002 scenarios of change and other sources, average annual seawater temperatures may rise a further 2°C or more by the 2050s. This warming is part of a global rise in sea‐ and air‐surface temperatures that will cause changes in the distribution and abundance of species.
• 2. Initially, there will not be a wholesale movement northwards of southern species or retreat northwards of northern species, because many additional factors will influence the responses of the different organisms. Such factors include the hydrodynamic characteristics of water masses, the presence of hydrographical and geographical barriers to spread and the life history characteristics (reproductive mode, dispersal capability and longevity) of species. Survey data over the past century show how organisms react to changes of the order of 0.5°C, and in the last two decades, when sea temperatures have risen by as much as 1°C, there have been significant local changes in the distribution of intertidal organisms. These past changes provide a clue to more extensive changes expected in the future if global warming develops as predicted.
• 3. Where species affected by climate change are dominant or key structural or functional species in biotopes, there may be a change in the extent and distribution of those biotopes. Some, dominated by predominantly northern species such as the horse mussel Modiolus modiolus, may decline and reduce their value as rich habitats for marine life. Others, characterized by southern species, for example the sea fan Eunicella verrucosa and the alcyonacean Alcyonium glomeratum, may increase in extent.
• 4. Using information on the life history characteristics of species, their present distribution and other factors, a key supported by a decision tree has been constructed to identify ‘types’ of organism according to their likely response to temperature rise. Conspicuous and easily identified rocky substratum species are good candidates to track change. Using the key, many species are shown as likely to increase their range northwards significantly. In contrast, fewer will decline in abundance and extent in the north. If, as anticipated, global warming continues, then species with distributions already accurately mapped, or being mapped at present, will provide baseline data to test forecasts.

Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Saltmarsh conservation through inventory,biogeographic analysis and predictions of change: Case of Tasmania,south‐eastern Australia

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Preliminary evidence of an endangered species benefiting from moderate climate warming: A palaeolimnological study of the charophyte Lychnothamnus barbatus

1. In a time of rapid environmental changes, identification of the effects of climate warming on charophytes (Characeae, Charophyta) will enable the optimization of conservation measures, especially for extremely rare species. Lychnothamnus barbatus is one of the rarest charophytes worldwide, which has decreased in the number of occupied sites over the last century. However, the recolonization of former sites has been observed in recent years (e.g. Lake Kuźnickie, Poland). The study aimed to analyse the effects of climatic changes and human pressure on the L. barbatus population.
2. Three 30 cm sediment cores were collected from minimum, average, and maximum depths of L. barbatus occurrence to determine the past vegetation composition. Sediment cores were dated using the radioisotopes lead-210, caesium-137, and carbon-14. A spatial analysis of the lake catchment changes during the last 120 years was also conducted.
3. The study demonstrated L. barbatus presence in Lake Kuźnickie at the beginning of the 16th century. However, a sharp increase in the proportion of this species in the vegetation community occurred in the 19th century and during climate warming at the end of the Little Ice Age. Factors that significantly influenced the present occurrence of the L. barbatus population included improvement in water quality and the oospore bank deposited in the bottom sediments.
4. This study is the first palaeoreconstruction in a modern lake dominated by L. barbatus. Based on the history of L. barbatus in Lake Kuźnickie after the end of the Little Ice Age, the positive effect of climate warming on the contemporary recovery of this charophyte is postulated.
5. The reaction of L. barbatus to climate warming appears to differ from commonly accepted scenarios for aquatic macrophytes because its recovery in the past and at present coincided with increases in air temperature. This research indicated the appropriate management and conservation practices for lakes with L. barbatus populations.

     

Scale measurements as a conservation tool in endangered Zingel asper (Linnaeus, 1758)

• 1. Zingel asper (a percid) is a highly endangered endemic fish of the Rhone catchment (France). Scale reading was used to estimate age and growth rates in one of the two last remaining populations that are still present in relatively high densities (River Beaume).
• 2. Scale reading was validated for the first time in Z. asper by comparing back‐calculated lengths from scale annual increment to actual lengths obtained by individual mark–recapture monitoring. The impacts of age or sampling site on individual growth rates were explored using generalized linear models.
• 3. No major discrepancy was observed between actual and back‐calculated lengths. Longevity of Z. asper was inferred from the age data and did not exceed 3 years. Results showed variation in growth rates among ages (20 times higher for 1+ fish than for 2+ or 3+ fish) and also among sampling sites.
• 4. The present work provided the first estimates of annual growth rates in the Beaume population. This study also showed that scale reading allowed a valuable trade‐off between accuracy and conservation imperatives that often imply avoiding invasive techniques such as the implantation of passive integrative transponders.
• 5. Scale reading will be a valuable tool for future ecological studies in Z. asper and will help in developing conservation strategies for this species as longevity and growth patterns are two life‐history traits of major importance for the management of endangered populations.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the impact of climate change on the oceanic circulation in the Chilean island ecoregions

1. The largest changes in the circulation of the South-eastern Pacific resulting from global warming are associated with the southward shift and intensification of the anticyclone and with coastal surface warming. Coastal upwelling is projected to be increase off central Chile, due to an increase in equatorward winds, although increased oceanic stratification and associated enhanced nearshore turbulence will yield an onshore deepening/flattening of the thermocline.
2. The overall increase in south-easterly trade winds of the South-eastern Pacific in a warmer climate are likely to increase the connectivity pattern between Juan Fernandez and Desventuradas islands, and along the Sala y Gomez ridge, through increasing wind-driven mean ocean currents.
3. Deoxygenation associated with the warmer temperatures and changes in ventilation are likely to modify marine habitat and the respiratory barriers of species in the seamounts located in the vicinity of the limits of the minimum oxygen zone.
4. In the South-eastern Pacific, the prevailing 2D understanding of the responses of marine life to climate change needs to be expanded to 3D approaches, integrating the vertical habitat compression of marine organisms as a result of ocean warming and deoxygenation, as climate velocities for temperature and oxygen have contrasting vertical and horizontal patterns.
5. There is a need for regional biogeochemical-coupled modelling studies dedicated to the Chilean islands in order to provide an integrated view of the impact of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. deoxygenation, increased stratification, and climate shift) at the scale required for addressing socio-ecological interactions.
6. A refined understanding of the large-scale biogeography and spatial dynamics of marine populations through experimentation with high-resolution regional ocean models is a prerequisite for scaling-up regional management planning and optimizing the conservation of interconnected marine ecosystems across large scales.

     

Diurnal and nocturnal movements of river blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) in a south-eastern Australian upland stream

Abstract –  We used radio-telemetry to investigate the movement patterns of river blackfish [ Gadopsis marmoratus (Richardson)] in Armstrong Creek, south-eastern Australia between August and October 2005. Movements of 11 fish were monitored 2–3 times per week during daylight over 48 days and diel movements of six fish monitored hourly for three consecutive days and nights. Most river blackfish displayed little or no movement during the day and were confined to distinct positions in the stream. However, fish moved over significantly larger ranges and moved amongst mesohabitats at night, which would not have been detected using daylight tracking data only. River blackfish most often were located within pools, but they also commonly used riffle and run habitats. We also found that several fish used inundated riparian areas during a flood and two fish made rapid, large movements coinciding with the elevated flows. This study has revealed previously undocumented aspects of the movements and behaviour of river blackfish. The study has also shown the potential for different conclusions regarding the extent of movement by a species depending on the temporal scale and the timing of observations.     

Ensemble forecasting of Corbicula fluminea worldwide distribution: Projections of the impact of climate change

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Effects of translocation on survival and growth of freshwater mussels within a West Gulf Coastal Plain river system

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Age and growth of the Critically Endangered flapper skate,Dipturus intermedius

1. Knowledge of vital data such as growth and age at maturity is necessary to develop effective management strategies for endangered species. The Critically Endangered flapper skate (Dipturus intermedius) is the largest skate in the North Atlantic and growth information, necessary to assess key life-history traits, populations’ growth rates and anticipate their response to management measures, is still lacking.
2. While classical age estimation methods used in fish generally require the analysis of calcified structures, destructive methods are incompatible with conservation objectives for this species. Taking advantage of the high recreational value of the flapper skate, this study uses citizen-science data originating from photo-identification of trophy pictures and tag–recapture data supported by anglers to estimate growth in this Critically Endangered species. Using the growth increments measured between recapture events, an individual-based Von Bertalanffy growth model was fitted to the data using Bayesian inference.
3. The results confirm that the flapper skate is a long-lived species with ages estimated as >40 years for the largest individuals captured. Despite this longevity, the model reveals a relatively fast initial growth but relatively late ages at maturity and significant sex-related differences in both growth rate and maximum size.
4. These results suggest that population growth rate, and therefore recovery, might be much slower than previously reported. By using citizen science this study provides the necessary information to begin understanding population dynamics and monitor the recovery of an iconic Critically Endangered species.