Forest fragmentation and the distribution, abundance and conservation of the Tana river red colobus (Procolobus rufomitratus)

Evidence suggests that habitat heterogeneity, disturbance, disease, predation and food resources influence primate population abundance. However, few studies have focused on what habitat factors determine the probability that a primate species will occur in a habitat fragment. We analysed forest habitat and colobus population attributes to determine factors that influenced occurrence and abundance of the critically endangered Tana River red colobus. The probability of colobus inhabiting forests was positively related to the relative amount of habitat edge and canopy tree species composition. Most of the variance in the density of colobus monkeys was explained by basal area of food trees (per ha), basal area per food tree, density of food trees, and basal area per tree for all trees. We conclude that effective conservation of primates in fragmented habitats may require strategies that consider factors that influence both the occurrence of a species and its relative abundance.     

Hunting or habitat degradation? Decline of primate populations in Udzungwa Mountains,Tanzania: An analysis of threats

Hunting and habitat degradation are universal threats to primates across the tropics, thus deciphering the relative impact of threats on population relative abundance is critical to predicting extinction risk and providing conservation recommendations. We studied diurnal primates over a period of nearly 6 years in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, a site of global importance for primate conservation. We assessed how population relative abundance of five species (of which two are endemic and IUCN-Endangered) differed between two forest blocks that are similar in size and habitat types but contrast strongly in protection level, and how abundance changed during 2004–2009. We also measured habitat and disturbance parameters and, in the unprotected forest, evaluated hunting practices. We found significant differences in primates’ abundance between protected and unprotected forests, with the greater contrast being the lower abundance of colobine monkeys (Udzungwa red colobus and Angolan colobus) in the unprotected forest. At this site moreover, colobines declined to near-extinction over the study period. In contrast, two cercopithecines (Sanje mangabey and Sykes’ monkey) showed slightly higher abundance in the unprotected forest and did not decline significantly. We argue that escalating hunting in the unprotected forest has specifically impacted the canopy-dwelling colobus monkeys, although habitat degradation may also have reduced their abundance. In contrast, cercopithecines did not seem affected by the current hunting, and their greater ecological adaptability may explain the relatively higher abundance in the unprotected forest. We provide recommendations towards the long-term protection of the area.     

Degradation of tropical forest in Hainan, China, 1991-2008: Conservation implications for Hainan Gibbon (Nomascus hainanus)

The Hainan gibbon (Nomascus hainanus) is one of the most endangered primates in the world, confined to mature natural forest in Hainan Island, China. We assessed changes in habitat condition on the island between 1991 and 2008, using vegetation maps generated by remote-sensing images. We defined forest suitable for gibbons based on composition, tree size and canopy cover. During the 17-year period, the area of suitable gibbon forest decreased by 540 km² (35%) across the whole island, and by 6.3 km² (7%) in the locality of the sole remaining gibbon population at Bawangling National Nature Reserve. The forest patches large enough (>1 km²) to support a gibbon group decreased from 754 km² to 316 km² in total area, and from 92 to 64 in number. Suitable natural forest was mainly replaced by plantations below 760 m, or degraded by logging, grazing and planting of pines above 760 m. Meanwhile, forests in former confirmed gibbon areas became more fragmented: mean area of patches decreased by 53%. We mapped the patches of natural forest in good condition which could potentially support gibbons. We recommend a freeze on further expansion of plantations between core patches at Bawangling, Jiaxi-Houmiling and Yinggeling Nature Reserves in accordance with forest protection regulations; establishment of nature reserves in currently unprotected natural forest patches elsewhere in line with the local government’s nature reserve expansion policy; and active natural-forest restoration between remaining fragments at Bawangling.     

Does the matrix matter? A forest primate in a complex agricultural landscape

Many threatened primates now exist in fragmented forest habitats. The survival of these populations may depend on their ability to utilise agricultural or other matrix habitats between forest fragments, but this is poorly known. Here, we systematically investigate an arboreal primate’s use of a heterogeneous matrix in a fragmented forest landscape: the Angola black-and-white colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) in southern Kenya. We used a novel technique, based on semi-structured interviews with local informants, to address the difficulty of sampling relatively rare but important events, such as dispersal between fragments. We found that colobus frequently travelled and foraged in indigenous matrix vegetation (such as mangrove, wooded shrubland and shrubland) up to 4 km from the nearest forest fragments. Agricultural habitats, such as perennial plantation (coconut, mango and cashew nut) were also used by colobus for travelling and foraging (in remnant indigenous trees). The probability of sighting colobus in the matrix increased with the proportion of both tall (>6 m) vegetation cover and food tree cover, but declined with distance from forest habitat. Our findings suggest that certain matrix habitats are important for C. a. palliatus, and that future primate conservation initiatives might benefit from adopting a ‘landscape-level’ approach to habitat management, particularly in fragmented forest systems.     

Influence of connectivity, habitat quality and invasive species on egg and larval distributions and local abundance of crucian carp in Japanese agricultural landscapes

The quality of habitat at and around a spawning site, and the availability of movement between spawning and nonspawning habitats are likely to be important determinants for population persistence in a degraded and fragmented landscape. We assessed the influence of habitat connectivity, habitat quality and invasive species for distributions and local abundance of eggs and larvae of crucian carp (Crassius auratus complex, which is listed as “data deficient” on the Japanese Red List) in agricultural landscapes surrounding Lake Mikata, Japan, where drainage ditches and paddy fields are extensively utilised for spawning (lake or river shores are also used). We investigated the presence and abundance of eggs and larvae of crucian carp and habitat components at 146 sites across a range of presumed spawning habitats. Egg presence was affected strongly by connectivity to the lake (watercourse distance from the lake), and egg abundance was significantly influenced by both connectivity and habitat quality. In contrast, larval presence was primarily related to habitat quality. Larval abundance was influenced by connectivity and habitat quality, but the effect of connectivity was relatively low. Furthermore, larval abundance was negatively related to the presence of the invasive species red swamp crayfish (Procambarus craki) and bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana). Our findings indicate that connectivity, habitat quality and the presences of invasive species are crucial in determining suitable spawning and nursery habitats, but their relative importance may vary depending on egg and larval life stages. We suggest that restoring connectivity, improving habitat quality and removal of invasive species could be effective conservation strategies for the declining populations of crucian carp in agricultural landscapes.     

The importance of forest area and configuration relative to local habitat factors for conserving forest mammals: A case study of koalas in Queensland, Australia

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial autocorrelation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation.     

Conserving Southeast Asian forest biodiversity in human-modified landscapes

Southeast Asia experiences one of the highest rates of deforestation in the tropics due to agricultural expansion, logging, habitat fragmentation and urbanization, which are expected to result in species declines and extinctions. In particular, growing global demands for food, biofuel and other commodities are driving the rapid expansion of oil palm and paper-and-pulp industries at the expense of lowland dipterocarp forests, further jeopardizing Southeast Asian forest biotas. We synthesize recent findings on the effects of land-use changes on plants, invertebrates, vertebrates and ecosystem functioning/services in Southeast Asia. We find that species richness and abundance/density of forest-dependent taxa generally declined in disturbed compared to mature forests. Species with restricted ranges and those with habitat and foraging specialization were particularly vulnerable. Forest loss also disrupted vital ecosystem services (e.g. crop pollination). Long-term studies are needed to understand biotic sustainability in regenerating and degraded forests, particularly in the context of the synergistic or additive effects of multiple agents of biodiversity loss (e.g. invasive species and climate change). The preservation of large tracts of mature forests should remain the principal conservation strategy in the tropics. In addition, reforestation and reintroductions of native species, as well as improved connectivity among forest patches could enhance the conservation value of forest remnants in human-dominated landscapes.     

Management of interactions between endangered species using habitat restoration

Commonly used conservation strategies may be insufficient when deleterious interactions between co-habiting endemic species occur. The decline in the population size of the endangered Leon Springs pupfish, Cyprinodon bovinus, in Diamond Y Spring, Texas has been partially attributed to egg-predation by the endangered Pecos gambusia, Gambusia nobilis. This interaction is related to changes in habitat availability; therefore, we aim to manage the conflict via restoration of the breeding habitat. We hypothesized that altering the habitat to expand shallow breeding areas would result in a decrease in the number of gambusia preying on the eggs of spawning pupfish pairs and an increase in the number of males defending territories. In 2 years following the habitat modification, we observed resurgence in the pupfish breeding population and a decrease in egg-predation pressure around spawning pupfish pairs. Additionally, after altering the habitat, gambusia were more dispersed throughout the habitat, as the low numbers of gambusia in a territory were stable regardless of spawning or aggressive behaviors by pupfish. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical example of effective management of deleterious interactions between two endangered species by means of habitat restoration.     

Land use and conservation value for forest birds in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia)

Unprecedented deforestation is currently underway in Southeast Asia. Since this trend is likely to continue, it is critical to determine the value of human-modified habitats (e.g., mixed-rural habitat) for conserving the regional native forest avifauna. The impacts of ongoing deforestation on the highly endemic avifauna (33%) of Sulawesi (Indonesia) are poorly understood. We sampled birds in primary and secondary forests in the Lore Lindu National Park in central Sulawesi, as well as the surrounding plantation and mixed-rural habitats. Species richness, species density and population density of forest birds showed a consistent decreasing trend in the following order: primary forests > secondary forests > mixed-rural habitat > plantations. Although primary forests contained the highest proportion (85%) of a total of 34 forest species recorded from our point count surveys, 40-yr old secondary forests and the mixed-rural habitat showed high conservation potential, containing 82% and 76% of the forest species, respectively. Plantations recorded only 32% of the forest bird species. Fifteen forest species had the highest abundance in primary forests, while two species had higher abundance outside primary forests. Our simulations revealed that all forest birds that were sensitive to native tree cover could be found in areas with at least 20% continuous native tree cover. Our study shows that although primary forests have the highest conservation value for forest avifauna, the potential of degraded habitats, such as secondary forests and the mixed-rural habitat, for conserving forest species can be enhanced with appropriate land use and management decisions.     

Priority areas for the conservation of Atlantic forest large mammals

Large mammal faunas in tropical forest landscapes are widely affected by habitat fragmentation and hunting, yet the environmental determinants of their patterns of abundance remain poorly understood at large spatial scales. We analysed population abundance and biomass of 31 species of medium to large-bodied mammal species at 38 Atlantic forest sites (including three islands, 26 forest fragments and six continuous forest sites) as related to forest type, level of hunting pressure and forest fragment size using ANCOVAs. We also derived a novel measure of mammal conservation importance for each site based on a “Mammalian Conservation Priority index” (MP_i) which incorporates information on species richness, population abundance, body size distribution, conservation status, and forest patch area. Mammal abundance was affected by hunting pressure, whereas mammalian biomass of which was largely driven by ungulates, was significantly influenced by both forest type and hunting pressure. The MP_i index, when separated into its two main components (i.e. site forest area and species-based conservation index C_i), ordered sites along a gradient of management priorities that balances species-focused and habitat-focused conservation actions. Areas with the highest conservation priority were located in semi-deciduous forest fragments, followed by lowland forests. Many of these fragments, which are often embedded within large private landholdings including biofuel and citrus or coffee crops, cattle ranches and pulpwood plantations, could be used not only to comply with environmental legislation, but also enhance the prospects for biodiversity conservation, and reduce edge effects and hunting.     

Estimating occupancy of a data deficient mammalian species living in tropical rainforests: Sun bears in the Kerinci Seblat region, Sumatra

Tropical mammals represent some of the most threatened species, but also the least known because they tend to be difficult to study. To objectively evaluate the conservation status of these species, standardized methods are urgently required. The sun bear Helarctos malayanus is a case in point: it is cryptic, difficult to detect and consequently classified on the IUCN Red List as Data Deficient, and the highest priority for bear conservation research. In this study, we apply a detection/non-detection sampling technique using camera trap data with environmental covariates to estimate sun bear occupancy from three tropical forest study areas with different levels of degradation and protection status in Sumatra. Sun bear detections, and encounter rates, were highest in one of the primary forest study areas, but sun bear occupancy was highest in the degraded forest study area. Whilst, sun bears were recorded at a greater proportion of camera placements in degraded forest, these records were often on only one occasion at each placement, which greatly increased the final occupancy estimate. Primary forests with their large fruiting trees undoubtedly represent good sun bear habitat, but our results indicate that degraded forest can also represent important habitat. These forests should therefore not be considered as having limited conservation value and assigned to other uses, such as oil palm production, as has previously happened in Sumatra. Estimating occupancy between years will yield information on the population trends of sun bears and other tropical mammals, which can be used to provide more reliable conservation assessments.     

Peat swamp forest avifauna of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: Effects of habitat loss and degradation

Peat swamp forest is a unique wetland ecosystem covering extensive areas in Southeast Asia that has received relatively little scientific attention and is now being lost at a rapid pace. This study examines the effects of anthropogenic degradation on bird communities in disturbed peat swamp forest habitats – namely, intact logged forest, a degraded forest fragment, and non-forest regrowth – in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Results show that species richness was significantly higher and species composition significantly different in intact logged forest in comparison to the degraded forest fragment and non-forested area. Nectarivore and tree foliage-gleaning insectivore abundance declined outside the intact forest, while the regrowth was dominated by the yellow vented bulbul, an open country insectivore–frugivore. Surveys reveal that large intact tracts of logged peat swamp forest can harbour threatened and near threatened bird species (36% of records) and thus play a role in their conservation, especially for a few habitat specialists. Given the extent of unmanaged degraded peatlands and continuing pressure to development them, urgent conservation actions are needed to rehabilitate and protect this ecosystem.     

Can supplemental food increase winter survival of a threatened cottontail rabbit?

Populations of New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis) have declined substantially in recent decades in response to habitat loss and fragmentation. Among some remnant populations, cottontails occupy small patches of thicket habitat where they experience high mortality rates as a consequence of limited food during winter. This limitation causes rabbits to forage away from cover where they are exposed to predators. Although conservation efforts are emerging to reverse the decline of New England cottontails, most are directed toward improving long-term viability by increasing the abundance of suitable habitats. Such efforts do little to improve the short-term survival of remaining cottontails. To address this immediate need, we evaluated the use of supplemental food as an approach to improve overwinter survival rates. We speculated that by positioning feeders in close proximity to escape cover, rabbits would be less vulnerable to predators. We evaluated this approach using eastern cottontails (Sylvilagus floridanus) as a research surrogate because this species is readily available and has similar habitat requirements to New England cottontails. Transmitter-equipped eastern cottontails were randomly assigned to either a fed or unfed group. Remotely-triggered cameras were also used to gauge use of feeders by cottontails and visits by other species. Winter survival rates were substantially greater for fed rabbits (70%) than for unfed rabbits (32%). Cameras revealed that rabbits were the most frequent consumer and that there was only limited carnivore activity near feeders. We conclude that supplemental feeding may improve survival of remaining New England cottontails as efforts to increase habitat availability continue to develop.     

Comparing the potential effectiveness of conservation planning approaches in central North Carolina, USA

We compared four approaches to conservation site selection to protect forest biodiversity in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA. Using biological inventory data and an inventory-based conservation plan as benchmarks, we evaluated the potential effectiveness of a focal species plan and three “simple” plans (large forested patches, close to wetlands and riparian areas, diverse forest types). Effectiveness was measured in three ways: the number of inventory elements captured at least once by the plan (representation), the total number of inventory elements captured (completeness), and the proportion of land in the inventory-based plan included (overlap). We further examined the potential effectiveness of the simple plans by calculating their overlap with land identified by the focal species approach. The simple and focal species plans did not differ markedly in terms of representation, but diverged when completeness and overlap were considered. Although representation rates for all four plans were relatively high, lower rates for completeness and overlap raise concerns about long-term viability. The simple plans did not identify the same lands as the focal species plan, and are thus unlikely to provide appropriate habitat for the focal species. Each approach we tested failed to capture some subset of species and communities, highlighting the importance of explicit conservation targets and consideration of ecological processes. Forced to act quickly and with little data, our findings suggest using initially a set of complementary simple plans, each focused on a different habitat type. This should be considered a stopgap measure, however, while more sophisticated plans are constructed, defining explicit conservation targets and considering ecological processes.     

Habitat suitability models of saproxylic red-listed boreal forest species in long-term matrix management: Cost-effective measures for multi-species conservation

Understanding of how a large landscape or network of conservation areas and habitats of red-listed species change in time is an important topic when addressing the temporal interplay between protected areas and matrix. We developed models of habitat suitability indices (HSI) for saproxylic red-listed invertebrate and fungal species, accounting for roughly 70% of all red-listed boreal forest species of the study area in eastern Finland. By using a forestry planning program that incorporates various optimisation methods we analysed trade-offs between timber production and amount of habitats of saproxylic red-listed species within a 60-year period. We also produced production possibility frontiers that show how to increase quality of the matrix with least costs. Moreover, we analysed how habitat suitability criteria used in optimisations affect the area of different habitat quality classes.

Our analysis shows that by adopting HSI models in long-term matrix management, it is possible to increase habitats for several red-listed species without substantial losses in timber production. The increase in habitat area is achieved mainly by decreasing the area that is thinned compared to intensive timber production plan. In the long term, this seems to be a novel cost-effective method to increase the quality of the matrix for red-listed saproxylic species. However, the selected optimisation method and the criteria or specification of the management objective for red-listed forest species have a strong effect on results when HSI models are used in conservation planning. Therefore any practical application must be performed with great care.     

Does time or habitat make old-growth forests species rich? Bryophyte richness in boreal Picea mariana forests

The relative importance of time since disturbance and habitat variables in creating diversity in old-growth forests will influence conservation strategies. However, the independent roles of these factors are not well understood, as they are rarely examined independently. This study examines the respective roles of habitat variables and time (stand age) in determining bryophyte diversity in Picea mariana (Mill. (BSP)) forests. Bryophytes are frequently used as indicators of old-growth forest, but their true dependence on forest continuity is unknown. Bryophytes were classified into taxonomic-habitat guilds: true mosses (forest), forest liverworts, bog liverworts and sphagna (bog). Diversity increased with age and peaked at approximately 275 years since fire, driven by liverworts. Multiplicative habitat modeling indicated that time and habitat played different roles for the different taxonomic-habitat guilds. True mosses and forest liverworts were primarily influenced by habitat variables, while sphagna and bog liverworts were influenced by time and habitat variables. The models for sphagna were particularly strong, indicating that many important factors were included, while forest liverwort models were particularly weak. This unexplained variability may represent site specific random factors, such as secondary disturbances that create habitat in a fully occupied space. Overall, high richness was created by small species dependent on habitat variables and chance factors for establishment. Therefore, time since disturbance was not the primary factor limiting richness in these forests. These results suggest that in boreal North America, where forest fragmentation is limited and recent, conservation strategies that emphasize habitat variables rather than forest continuity may be effective for some bryophytes.     

北京昌平区农业景观野生蜂多样性的时空动态分布

近年来,由于生境质量的下降和生境丧失,野生蜂多样性急剧下降,严重威胁传粉服务和农业的可持续发展。为揭示野生蜂在农业景观镶嵌体中的时空分布格局及不同生境对野生蜂保护的重要性,本研究于2016年4—9月采用网捕法调查了北京昌平农业景观4种主要生境类型(人工林、自然灌木林、荒草地和桃园)中的野生蜂,分析不同生境类型中野生蜂多样性及其时间动态变化特征。结果表明:野生蜂及其中的大体长蜂和独居蜂的物种数和个体数,以及中体长蜂的个体数均在自然灌木林中最高,人工林中小体长蜂个体数最多,野生蜂总个体数和总物种数均在桃园中最低。在不同月份,所有功能群野生蜂均在自然或半自然生境中最高,5月桃园中最低,原因可能与桃园中对地表杂草的集约化管理有关。多度最大的4个优势物种依次为黄胸彩带蜂、铜色隧蜂、黄芦蜂和隧淡脉隧蜂,其在生境间的时间动态特征不同。调查的4种生境均为野生蜂提供了可利用资源,但自然生境和半自然生境的作用更大;其中,自然灌木林维持了较多具有较高潜在传粉效率的中体长和大体长野生蜂,具有更高的保护价值。为了促进该地区农业景观中不同功能群野生蜂多样性及传粉服务,需提高生境类型的多样性,同时在野生蜂活动高峰季节采取低集约化的生境管理方式。     

Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar (Panthera onca). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6 × 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82–100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining ‘proportion of area occupied’, we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as ‘probability of habitat used’. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands.     

Seeing the forest for the deer: Do reductions in deer-disturbance lead to forest recovery?

High levels of deer browsing can prevent canopy tree regeneration, but little is known about changes to forest size-structure following long-term deer herd reductions. We monitored changes in forest stand structure and composition in southwestern Ontario, Canada, over 28-years using permanent plots. Our study site was the largest remaining tract of Carolinian (deciduous) forest in Canada (11 km²), a habitat type that contains up to a fifth of Canada’s species at risk and is under intense anthropogenic pressures. We recorded declines in all tree size classes between 1981 and 1996, during which densities of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reached a peak of 55 deer km⁻². Despite significant and sustained deer herd reductions between 1996 and 2009, which reduced deer densities to 7 deer km⁻², there was limited recruitment of small trees and declines in basal area of tree species that were sensitive to deer browsing. Our results suggest that recovery from herbivory is a protracted process during which canopy tree regeneration may continue to decline despite a reduction in browsing pressure due to deer culling. Large declines in canopy-tree densities in Carolinian forests may lead to forest size-structures and herbaceous plant communities that resemble rare oak savanna habitat, creating difficult decisions for conservation managers aiming to protect rare and endangered species within native ecosystems. We recommend that managers protect Carolinian forest stands and encourage canopy tree regeneration by increasing seed sources of native trees. While deer control is essential in reducing forest damage, our results highlight the need to explore other forms of active management to expedite otherwise slow increases in tree density.     

Linking habitat suitability and seed dispersal models in order to analyse the effectiveness of hydrological fen restoration strategies

The effectiveness of measures targeted at the restoration of populations of endangered species in anthropogenically dominated regions is often limited by a combination of insufficient restoration of habitat quality and dispersal failure. Therefore, the joint prediction of suitable habitat and seed dispersal in dependency of management actions is required for effective nature management. Here we demonstrate an approach, which links a habitat suitability and a seed dispersal model. The linked model describes potential species distribution as a function of current species distribution, species-specific dispersal traits, the number of successful dispersal events, dispersal infrastructure and habitat configuration. The last two variables were related to water management actions. We demonstrate the applicability of the model in a strategy analysis of hydrological restoration measures for a large fen area in which still numerous endangered plant species grow.With the aid of the linked model, we were able to optimise the spatial planning of restoration measures, taking into account both the constraints of water management practices on abiotic restoration and the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal. Moreover, we could demonstrate that stand-alone habitat suitability models, which assume unlimited dispersal, may considerably overestimate restoration prospects. For these reasons, we conclude that linked habitat suitability and dispersal models can provide useful insights into spatially differentiated potentials and constraints of nature restoration measures targeted at the sustainable conservation of endangered plant populations whose habitats have been deteriorated due to undesirable effects of land and water management on abiotic conditions. These insights may contribute to the design of cost-effective nature restoration and conservation measures.