Assessing the impact of climate change on annual typhoon rainfall—a stochastic simulation approach

Rainfall amount drawn by typhoon events accounts for a significant portion of annual rainfall in Taiwan. Changes in typhoon rainfall due to climate change may have severe consequences for water resources management. A stochastic simulation approach is proposed for evaluation of changes in typhoon rainfall under certain climate change scenarios. The number of typhoon events and total rainfall of individual typhoon events are, respectively, considered as random variables of the Poisson and Gamma distributions. Climate change scenarios were set by varying various degrees of changes in average number of typhoon events annually and the mean of event-total rainfall. Using stochastic simulation, basin-wide annual typhoon rainfalls were simulated for the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. It is found that 10% increases in average annual number of typhoon events and mean event-total rainfall will result in 18% increase in the annual typhoon rainfall of 5-year return period, whereas the annual typhoon rainfall of 10-year return period will increase by 15% under the same climate change scenario. Such increases may cause significant increase in reservoir sediment and pose challenges to reservoir management.     

Assessing the impact of climate change on the land hydrology in Taiwan

The gradually increased temperature resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effects has been found to be an important factor of changes to the global climate which in turn might significantly affect the Earth's hydrological cycles. The possible outcomes of warming climate are changes of precipitation, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. However, such changes at the global scale may not reflect the variations on a regional scale, and more so at the local scale. In this study, a physically based water balance model was applied to study the impact of climate change on the land hydrology, focusing on trends of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and infiltration in Taiwan. Model forcing of composite temperatures and precipitations were generated by a weather generation model in association with nine climate change scenarios, including outputs of equilibrium experiments and special reports on emissions scenarios, from the IPCC. Although discrepancies among different climate change scenarios are significant, the trend of more extreme precipitations and surface runoffs were observed in most scenarios' runs. The increase of evapotranspiration in both wet and dry seasons is persistent among different scenarios throughout the island due to the projected consistently higher temperature. Although the trends of infiltration for wet and dry seasons are opposite in curtain scenarios, a decreased yearly infiltration was found in most cases as the result of increased precipitation intensity and more evapotranspiration. Timely adaption measures for water resources managements and natural hazard mitigations are required to face these changes of land hydrology components under changing climate.     

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on plant community structure of a temperate grassland are modulated by cutting frequency

To determine the impacts of climate change and defoliation on the community structure and plant diversity of a semi‐natural temperate grassland, monoliths of a permanent grassland were exposed to ambient or elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (ambient + 235 ppmv) and temperature (ambient + 3°C) from October 1998 to December 2000. The monoliths were subjected to two different cutting frequencies, either two or six cuts per year. The grassland community structure changed during the course of the experiment and was more responsive to changes in management than to changes in climate. Increased cutting frequency stimulated plant diversity by enhancing the number of forb species, but plant diversity was not significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of individual plant species to the vegetation cover revealed species‐specific responses to climate change and cutting frequency, but for most species significant interactions between climate change and cutting frequency were present. There were no clear‐cut effects of treatments on the total annual yield and the proportion of forbs present, as significant interactions between climate change and cutting frequency occurred. It is concluded that differential grassland management will modify plant species‐specific responses to climate change and resulting changes in the botanical composition of mixed‐species, temperate grasslands.     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.

     

The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example

This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses.In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change.In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO₂] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO₂ involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO₂, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO₂] typically corresponded to conditions 10-30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO₂]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO₂] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation.     

Synoptic weather typing and typhoon with an application to Chiayi, Taiwan: potential for future climate change impact analysis

In this study, an automated synoptic weather typing was employed to identity the weather types most likely associated with daily typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events for Chiayi, Taiwan. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure, and discriminant function analysis. The classification results showed that the synoptic weather typing was successful at identifying typhoon-related weather types. Five synoptic weather types (Weather Types 1–5) were identified over the past 11-year period as the primary typhoon-related weather types. These five typhoon-related weather types can capture 34 out of 36 total typhoon-related heavy rainfall days (>50 mm/d) and all nine cases with typhoon-related daily rainfall >200 mm during the period March 1998–December 2008. This result suggests that synoptic weather typing can be useful to identify historical typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events. Moreover, the method has potential to assess climate change impacts on the frequency/intensity of future typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events using future downscaled GCM climate data.     

A general adaptation strategy for climate change impacts on paddy cultivation: special reference to the Japanese context

Climate changes due to global warming may affect paddy cultivation considerably. Climate changes directly affect rice plant growth, and within paddy cultivation catchments, alter the hydrological regime including flood patterns and water availability for irrigation, and drainage. Although increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the future may enhance plant growth through the CO₂ fertilization effect, impacts of climate change on agriculture are complicated and difficult to predict precisely. This is especially the case for assessing impacts on paddy cultivation, where basin hydrological behavior needs to be understood in detail. Possible adaptations to reduce negative impacts should be tailored to local conditions, which modify climate change impacts on paddy cultivation. In this article, climate change impacts on paddy cultivation are reviewed and a general adaptation strategy is discussed with special reference to the Japanese context.     

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture‐based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by an agro‐meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availability index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963–2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios in terms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013–2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043–2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation in temperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual production under future climate scenarios was predicted to increase by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central‐west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with larger increases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.     

Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model

This study simulated land-cover change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model and predicted future changes in paddy field area under climate change scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The CLUE model is a dynamic spatial land-use simulation model considering competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Yongin, Icheon, and Anseong, South Korea, were selected as study areas, and scenarios were developed for regional-level simulation of land-use change. Binary logistic regressions were also conducted to evaluate the relationships between land uses and its driving factors. Finally, the simulation results suggested future changes of paddy field area under the scenario conditions. In all the scenarios, demand for cropland, including paddy and upland, decreased continuously throughout the simulation period of 2000–2100. The decrease in cropland area was particularly steep in scenario A2 in 2050. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values indicated that the spatial patterns of land-cover types based on the regressions were reasonably explained by the driving factors. According to the scenarios developed and location characteristics, in scenario A1B, paddy field areas were mainly transformed into built-up areas, while in the other scenarios paddy field areas were mainly transformed into forest. The approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future land-use changes under other development constraints and detailed scenarios.     

Implications of climate change for grassland in Europe: impacts, adaptations and mitigation options: a review

Climate change associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may have important implications for Europe's grasslands. Projected scenarios indicate that increased temperatures and CO₂ concentrations have the potential to increase herbage growth and to favour legumes more than grasses, but changes in seasonal precipitation would reduce these benefits particularly in areas with low summer rainfall. Further implications for grasslands may arise from increased frequency of droughts, storms and other extreme events. Potential farm-scale adaptive responses to climate change are identified. Grassland agriculture also contributes to GHG emissions, particularly methane and nitrous oxide, and management of grassland affects net carbon balances and carbon sequestration. Management options are identified for mitigating grassland's contribution to GHG emissions which need to be developed in a holistic way that also considers other pressures.     

RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究

【目的】气候变化对农业生产的影响日趋明显。分析未来气候变化所产生的影响,模拟调整作物耕作和栽培措施,为有效减轻未来气候变化带来的负效应提供参考。【方法】根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次工作报告中未来可能的温室气体排放情况,以BCC_CSM模式模拟未来的气候变化情景,选取RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径情景,与作物模型CERES-Rice耦合,筛选出了未来气候变化条件下福建省各稻区可能的最佳品种和播期,并研究分析了品种更替和播期调整后的水稻单产、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。【结果】在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,闽东南双季稻区早稻的模拟产量较未作适应性调整分别增加1.6%和1.9%,晚稻的模拟产量依次增加13.5%和9.8%;闽西北双季稻区早稻的模拟产量依次提高1.4%和1.0%,晚稻的模拟产量依次提高11.5%和7.9%;闽西北山地单季稻区一季稻的模拟产量分别增加14.1%和13.7%。在综合考虑两种适应性措施后,福建省各稻区总产也较当前明显提高,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,分别提高9.3%和10.5%。【结论】未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量有不利影响,可采取一定的适应性措施缓解负效应。     

基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应

选取河南信阳市9个取样点和单季稻早、中、晚熟3个代表性品种开展气候变化影响的评价研究。根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2、B2情景并结合区域气候模式(PRECIS),生成信阳市9个取样点基准时段(1961-1990年)和未来时段(2021-2050年)的逐日气象资料。利用ORYZA-V3模型,在考虑未来CO_2的直接增益效应情况下,模拟分析了未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响。在此基础上,模拟分析了未来不同情景下水稻生产可能的适应性调整方案,最后得出研究区域的水稻生产经过适应性调整后的产量、稳产性以及豫南地区水稻总产的变化。结果显示,未来气候变化中,若不进行适应性调整,在不考虑CO_2直接增益效应情况下,信阳地区在A2情景下的模拟产量较基准阶段减产14.1%,B2情景下减产8.6%。通过品种、播期的调整,并同时考虑CO_2的肥效作用,A2和B2情景下将分别增产17.2%和15.7%。适应性调整后豫南地区的总产在A2和B2情景下较基准阶段将分别增产14.8%和13.2%。因此,在未来气候变化的评价研究中,将作物生产的适应性调整考虑在内,不仅更为科学合理,也更为乐观。     

Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna

Background

In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity.

Results

For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30–40%, (2) a decrease by 5–15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10–20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Niño/La Niña phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity.

Conclusions

We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.     

Combining rainfall–runoff and hydrodynamic models for simulating flow under the impact of climate change to the lower Sai Gon-Dong Nai River basin

This study presented simulation results of runoff discharge combining the Mike NAM and Mike SHE models for lower Sai Gon-Dong Nai River basin (SG-DNRB). Sai Gon-Dong Nai River basin is Vietnam’s largest population center and main industrial area in Ho Chi Minh City. In recent years, the area faces flooding problems because of heavy rainfalls and high tides, as part of the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. The lower of SG-DNRB was selected as a case study to highlight the necessity to investigate combination of the rainfall–runoff model and the hydrodynamic model for long-term strategies to resource water in the future. The models were calibrated using water level and runoff discharge data during low and flood seasons in 2014. The calibrated results showed satisfactory coefficients (NASH index, R² up to 0.70 and RMSE is smaller than 0.20). The results confirmed that the combination of Mike NAM and Mike SHE models is well suitable to simulate runoff discharge in the lower SG-DNRB. Combination of the models can be considered a useful tool to help professional agency operator water resources management projects in other areas in the context of climate change and sea level rise.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.

     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.     

近三十年来厦门市气候的变化

依据厦门市1971—2004年34年的基本气象资料,研究分析了该市年均气温和年降水量的年际变化特征,并确定了各自的气候突变点,据此分析了该市的气候类型。结果表明：（1）从20世纪80年代以来,该市年均气温以每年0．0631℃的速度在升高,年均气温出现2个气候突变点,分别为1981和1998年;（2）年降水量多年变化趋势不明显,呈随机变化,年降水量出现2个气候突变点,分别为1977和1990年;（3）34年的气候类型分为暖湿、暖干、冷湿和冷干4种类型。     

气候变化对茶叶生产的影响及应对技术展望

随着大气CO2等温室气体浓度的不断升高,全球气候以前所未有的速度发生变化。在气温不断升高的同时,高温热浪、干旱、低温、倒春寒和暴雨等极端天气不断出现,对茶叶生产的影响是显而易见的。本文对我国有代表性茶区气候变化现状及发展趋势,气候变化对茶叶生产的影响,气候变化应对策略进行了阐述,以为茶园应对气候变化,促进茶叶生产的持续健康发展提供参考。