Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of agricultural land in Great Britain

The aim of this paper is to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of croplands and grasslands in Great Britain under different management practices. We consider the feasible land management options for grass and cropland using county level land‐use data with estimates of per‐area mitigation potential for individual and total GHGs, to identify the land management options with the greatest cost‐effective mitigation potential. We show that for grasslands, uncertainties still remain on the mitigation potential because of their climatic sensitivity and also their less intensive management. For croplands in Great Britain, the technical mean GHG mitigation potentials for all cropland management practices range from 17 Mt CO₂‐eq. per 20 yr to 39 Mt CO₂‐eq. per 20 yr. There are significant regional variation in all cases, with the greatest potentials in England, negligible potential in Wales and intermediate potential in Scotland, with country differences largely driven by the areas of cropland and grassland in each country. Practices such as agronomic improvement and nutrient management are the most promising options because of their impact on N₂O emissions and also their larger potential at low cost. In terms of annual emissions from agriculture, calculated mitigation potentials are small, where the technical mitigation potential of agronomy and nutrient management strategies are ca. 4.5 and 3.8%, respectively (agricultural emissions account for ca. 9% or 47.7 Mt CO₂‐eq., of total Great Britain GHG emissions, Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK). However when compared with the land use, land‐use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) emissions, nutrient management would reduce further emission reductions by approximately half of the 2005 LULUCF sink (i.e. ?1.6 Mt CO₂‐eq. per year).     

Multiyear greenhouse gas flux measurements on a temperate fen soil used for cropland or grassland

To date there is still a lack of reliable data on greenhouse gas emissions from drained fens needed to determine the climatic relevance of land use and land use change on peatlands and to supply the National Inventory Report for the German Greenhouse Gas Inventory. In this study we present the results of monthly‐based multiyear measurements of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ flux rates in two drained agriculturally used fen ecosystems in NW Germany (cropland and grassland) over a period of 4.5 y using transparent and opaque closed chambers. CO₂ exchange was modelled at high resolution with temperature and photosynthetic active radiation. The measured and modelled values fit very well (R² ≥ 0.93). Annual GHG and Global Warming Potential (GWP) balances were determined. Net CO₂ emissions at the cropland and grassland sites were similarly high, taking into account changes in management; net ecosystem C balance amounted to about 4.0 to 5.0 Mg C ha^?1 y^?1. Emissions of N₂O and CH₄ were low at both sites. The mean GWP balance for a time frame of 100 y (GWP100) amounted to about 17.0 to 19.0 Mg CO₂‐eq. ha^?1 y^?1. The unexpectedly low greenhouse gas emissions from the cropland site are attributed to the high water table and a change in crop management. The change from corn for silage to corn‐cob mix lead transiently to rather small greenhouse gas emissions. The study confirms the need for multiyear measurements taking climatic and management variation into account.     

The potential for Scottish cultivated topsoils to lose or gain soil organic carbon

Scotland's cultivated topsoils are rich in carbon with a median soil organic carbon (SOC) content of ca. 3.65%. The storage of carbon in soil is a means to offset GHG emissions, but equally carbon losses from soils can add to these emissions. We estimate the amount of carbon stored in Scottish cultivated mineral topsoils (246 ± 9 Mt), the potential carbon loss (112 ± 12 Mt) and the carbon storage potential of between 150 and 215 Mt based on national‐scale legacy data with uncertainty around the estimate due to error terms in predicting bulk densities for stock calculations. We calculate that Scotland's mineral cultivated topsoils hold the carbon equivalent of around 18 years of GHG emissions (based on 2009 emissions from all sources). We also derive a theoretical carbon saturation potential using a published, linear relationship with the <20‐μm mineral fraction (116 ± 14 Mt). Although the calculated uncertainties are quite small, care needs to be taken when using the results of such analyses as a policy instrument, and while the potential storage capacity seems large, it is unlikely to be achieved while still maintaining current land use patterns in Scotland. The methodology relies on legacy data (which may not reflect the current status of Scottish cultivated topsoils) and on summary statistics calculated from national‐scale data; however, those land management strategies that may mitigate GHG emissions are likely to be implemented at the field scale.     

Carbon stocks and sequestration potentials of agricultural soils in the federal state of Baden‐Württemberg,SW Germany

Soil organic carbon (SOC) inventories are important tools for studying the effects of land‐use and climate change and evaluating climate‐change policies. A detailed inventory of SOC in the agricultural soils of the federal state of Baden‐Württemberg was therefore prepared based on the highest‐resolution geo‐referenced soil, land‐use, and climate data (BÜK200 inventory). In order to estimate the quality of different approaches, C inventories of the region were also prepared based on data from the National Inventory Report (UBA, 2003) and by applying the IPCC (1997) method to the two data sets. Finally, the BÜK200 inventory was used to estimate potentials of no‐tillage agriculture (NT) and peatland restoration to contribute to C sequestration and greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐emission mitigation since both measures are discussed in this context. Scenario assumptions were change to NT on 40% of the cropland and restoration of 50% of cultivated peatlands within 20 years. On average, grasslands contained 9.5 kg C m^–2 to 0.3 m depth as compared to only 6.0 kg C m^–2 under cropland, indicating strong land‐use effects. The SOC content depended strongly on waterlogging and elevation, thus reflecting reduced C mineralization under aquic moisture regimes and low temperatures. Comparison of the BÜK200 inventory with the approach used for UBA (2003) showed high inconsistencies due to map resolution and SOC contents, whereas the IPCC method led to fairly good agreements. Results on the simulated effects of NT and peatland restoration suggested that 5%–14% of total agricultural GHG emissions could be abated with NT whereas peat restoration appeared to have a minor mitigation potential (0.2%–2.7%) because the total area of cultivated organic soils was too small to have larger impact.     

秦巴山区土地利用时空格局及地形梯度效应

自然景观的垂直地带性为区域土地利用的垂直景观格局奠定了基础,同时也决定了垂直景观带上土地利用的强度及其变化情况。该文采用地形位指数、分布指数、土地利用程度综合指数和土地利用信息图谱法等,分析了1989-2010年秦巴山区土地利用格局的地形梯度效应和图谱信息,揭示地形控制下土地利用时空格局和土地转移的变化规律。结果表明:1)秦巴山区土地利用以林地和耕地为主,呈西林东耕分布;1989-2010年间林地减少显著,建设用地增加明显,其中耕地是建设用地主要转入来源,林、草地是耕地主要转入来源。2)秦巴山区各生态亚区用地类型差异明显,各生态亚区土地利用转移方向也存在差异性。3)秦巴山区土地利用强度指数呈东高西低,中高周低的态势;土地利用强度变化率稳定少动,增加趋势不明显;土地利用动态度呈中高周低的态势,整体变化不大。4)水域、建设用地和耕地主要集中在地形起伏度小和坡度小的低地形位,且耕地主要转移为其他两种用地类型,建设用地有向中低地形位分布的趋势。林地和草地集中在地形起伏大、坡度陡的中高地形位,且存在着相互转移演替现象,中低地形位往往是耕地、林地、草地间的相互转换,未来势必加强坡耕地和低山丘陵区林草地的管治工作。     

Changes in soil carbon and crop yield over 60 years in the Zurich Organic Fertilization Experiment,following land‐use change from grassland to cropland

Changes in land‐use and agricultural management affect soil organic C (SOC) storage and soil fertility. Grassland to cropland conversion is often accompanied by SOC losses. However, fertilization, crop rotation, and crop residue management can offset some SOC losses or even convert arable soils into C sinks. This paper presents the first assessment of changes in SOC stocks and crop yields in a 60‐year field trial, the Zurich Organic Fertilization Experiment A493 (ZOFE) in Switzerland. The experiment comprises 12 treatments with different organic, inorganic and combined fertilization regimes. Since conversion to arable land use in 1949, all treatments have lost SOC at annual rates of 0.10–0.25 t C ha^?1, with estimated mean annual C inputs from organic fertilizers and aboveground and belowground plant residues of 0.6–2.4 t C ha^?1. In all treatments, SOC losses are still in progress, indicating that a new equilibrium has not yet been reached. Crop yields have responded sensitively to advances in plant breeding and in fertilization. However, in ZOFE high yields can only be ensured when mineral fertilizer is applied at rates typical for modern agriculture, with yields of main crops (winter wheat, maize, potatoes, clover‐grass ley) decreasing by 25–50% when manure without additional mineral fertilizer is applied. ZOFE shows that land‐use change from non‐intensively managed grassland to cropland leads to soil C losses of 15–40%, even in rotations including legumes and intercrops, improved agricultural management and organic fertilizer application.     

南京都市农业农地利用碳排放测算及趋势预测

[目的]测算南京市都市农业农地利用碳效应,为发展都市农业的其他城市提供可借鉴的低碳经验。[方法]基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕6个主要方面的碳源,测算南京市1996—2014年的农地利用碳排放量,综合林地、草地、园地3个主要方面的碳汇变化特征,探索农地利用方式变化导致的碳效应。并基于灰色GM(1,1)模型预测南京市农地利用碳排放量趋势。[结果]1996—2014年南京农地利用碳排放量总体呈现"上升—波动—平稳下降"的3阶段特征,纵向来看,2005—2014年林地碳汇、草地碳汇有所下降,但变化趋势不同。横向来看,由于各区承载的城市功能不同,区域碳汇差异较大。从农地利用方式变化的碳效应来看,2000—2008年南京市因生态退耕产生碳汇呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,建设占用导致的碳排放量变化趋势呈现Z字形上升。基于灰色GM(1,1)模型采用等维递补预测方法,预计到2020年该市农地利用碳排放量为1.11×105 t。[结论]南京市农地利用碳排放的变化趋势与经济发展和都市农业发展进程密切相关。林地、草地面积的减少降低了原本不高的碳汇效应,并且由于经济发展与城市建设需要,持续上升的建设占用碳排放对南京市碳效应影响巨大。     

退耕还林还草政策影响下米脂县银州镇土地利用变化研究

以米脂县银州镇1986年和2006年两期TM影像及1996年土地利用现状图为基础,结合GIS空间分析软件和遥感软件,分析了1986-1996年、1996-2006年以及1986-2006年的土地利用时空变化.研究表明,1986-1996年期间,土地利用变化表现为水域、林地和草地减少,耕地和其它用地增加,其中尤以耕地面积变化最为显著,减少的林地和草地主要转化为耕地;1996-2006年期间,主要的土地利用变化表现为水域、耕地和其它用地减少,林地和草地增加.由于受到退耕还林还草政策的影响,耕地减少主要表现为转化成林地和草地.总体上看,1986-2006年期间,银州镇土地利用变化显著,主要表现为水域、林地和耕地面积减少,草地和其它用地面积增加,水域、林地和耕地主要转化为草地.1986-2006年土地利用变化主要发生在粱峁地上,有部分无定河两岸的水浇地转化为其它用地.退耕还林还草工程在改善当地生态环境方面虽取得了一定效果,但生态环境的保护和恢复仍是一个长期的任务.     

Land‐use effects on the distribution of soil organic carbon within particle‐size fractions of volcanic soils in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt (Mexico)

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of land‐use and forest cover depletion on the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) within particle‐size fractions in a volcanic soil. Emphasis was given to the thermal properties of soils. Six representative sites in Mexico were selected in an area dominated by Andosols: a grassland site, four forested sites with different levels of degradation and an agricultural site. Soils were fractionated using ultrasonic energy until complete dispersion was achieved. The particle‐size fractions were coarse sand, fine sand, silt, clay and particulate organic matter from the coarse sand sized fraction (POM‐CS) and fine sand (POM‐FS). Soil organic carbon decreased by 70% after forest conversion to cropland and long‐term cultivation; forest cover loss resulted in a decrease in SOC of up to 60%. The grassland soil contained 45% more SOC than the cropland one. Soil organic carbon was mainly associated with the silt‐size fraction; the most sensitive fractions to land‐use change and forest cover depletion were POM followed by SOC associated with the silt and clay‐sized fractions. Particulate organic matter can be used as an early indicator of SOC loss. The C lost from the clay and silt‐sized fractions was thermally labile; therefore, the SOC stored in the more degraded forest soils was more recalcitrant (thermally resistant). Only the transformation of forest to agricultural land produced a similar loss of thermally stable C associated with the silt‐sized fraction.     

Soil nitrogen and denitrification potential as affected by land use and stand age following agricultural abandonment in a headwater catchment

Changes in vegetation and soil properties because of agricultural abandonment may affect soil nitrogen (N) and associated processes. We investigated soil N (total N: TN, inorganic N: NH₄–N and NO₃–N) and denitrification potential in cropland, pine plantations and abandoned agricultural land along a secondary succession sequence (grassland→shrubland→secondary forest) in a headwater catchment in the Qinling Mountains, northwest China. The results show that the soil denitrification potential differed significantly among the five land‐use types with the highest potential in the secondary forest, followed by grassland, shrubland, cropland and plantations. The denitrification potential of the 20‐ to 40‐cm layer was significantly lower compared with the topsoil (0–20 cm) across all land‐use types. TN, soil organic matter (SOM) and NH₄–N increased significantly with stand age, whereas there was an opposite trend in soil pH. However, the denitrification potential did not relate to stand age in a linear manner. We conclude that changes in soil TN, SOM and pH during vegetation succession following agricultural abandonment are critical controls on the denitrification potential.     

基于RS和GIS的小流域土地利用时空变化分析——以甘肃省天水市罗峪沟流域为例

根据甘肃省天水市罗峪沟流域1986年矢量格式的土地详查数据库,1990年、1995年和2001年的Landsat TM影像数据,利用地理信息系统和遥感技术,结合空间分析技术和数理统计方法,分析了天水市罗峪沟流域土地利用的数量变化和空间变化特征.明确了研究区主要的土地利用类型,研究区综合土地利用动态度和研究区主要的土地利用类型之间的转移及其速度.结果显示:近11 a该流域土地利用以耕地和林地为主,两者占土地总面积的80%以上;研究区1990-1995年综合土地利用动态度为0.23%,1995-2001年综合土地利用动态度为1.09%,1990-2001年综合土地利用动态度达0.89%;土地利用类型转移的主要方向是向林地转移,占总变化面积的86.82%.其次是转向草地.占总变化面积的10.93%.再次是转向耕地和未利用地,分别占总变化面积的1.183%和1.060%.耕地流向林地的转移速度平均每年35.67 hm~2;耕地的另一个主要流向是草地,其平均每年转移速度3.41 hm~2;未利用土地减少的幅度也比较大,其主要的转向是林地,平均每年转移速度6.09 hm~2;未利用地另外一个转移方向是草地,平均每年的转移速度是1.77 hm~2;河床地流出方向主要是林地,其平均每年转移速度是5.31hm~2;其次是未利用地和耕地,其平均每年的转移速度分别为0.58 hm~2和0.16 hm~2;还有其它各种类型之间的转移,其平均每年的转移速度相对较小.     

Impact of Composting Food Waste with Green Waste on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Compost Windrows

Windrow composting of green waste as an alternative to green waste disposal in landfills requires an understanding of the impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the development of effective and efficient management strategies to reduce these emissions. The addition of food waste to green waste compost operations is becoming more common, but its effect on GHG emissions is less understood. As more food waste diversion occurs as a result of recent implementation of climate smart policies in California, more information is needed to address the sustainability of composting different combinations of waste types. We monitored GHG emissions from compost windrows comprised of green waste alone and a green/food waste mixture (green waste : food waste = 9:1, by wet weight) at the University of California, Davis Student Farm in 2016 using a modified, open, flow-through chamber technique. When comparing total emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄), the green/food waste mixture produced 110?kg CO₂ eq./ton DM (dry matter, std error = 12.2), which were slightly lower than emissions produced by the green waste alone (152?kg CO₂ eq./ton DM, std error = 15.9). Methane was a large contributor to global warming potential (GWP) of both composting treatments, suggesting that management practices that optimize porosity and air flow in compost piles are promising in reducing emissions from both green waste and green/food waste mixtures.     

陕南秦巴山区退耕还林与可持续发展研究——以汉中市为例

汉中市位于陕南秦巴山区,是南水北调中线工程的重要水源地,长期以来水土流失严重。根据汉中市水土流失情况,以生态优先、综合治理原则,确定了四个重点退耕区。实施退耕还林工程,汉中市植被覆盖增加,水土流失得到治理,生态环境改善。通过分析退耕还林使耕地面积减少,粮食总产量下降,但汉中并不存在粮食安全问题。退耕还林促使土地利用结构发生改变,农业产业结构调整,农业总产值增长。通过退耕还林,汉中市实现生态、经济和社会的可持续发展。     

Carbon sequestration in secondary pasture soils: a chronosequence study in the South African Highveld

Soil restoration is a means of combating desertification in semi‐arid and arid parts of the world. There, vast areas of the cropped soil degrade, particularly because of the loss of organic matter. One approach to reverse this loss is the conversion of cropland into permanent grassland for use as pasture. This study was designed to evaluate how fast and to what degree degraded cropland may re‐sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) when converted into permanent secondary pasture. Topsoil samples (0–5, 5–10 and 10–20 cm) were taken from chronosequences of secondary pastures (1 to 31 years old) at three agro‐ecosystems in the semi‐arid Highveld of South Africa. Long‐term croplands and primary grassland used as pastures served as the controls. In bulk soil samples (<2 mm) and their clay (<2 µm), silt (2–20 µm), fine sand (20–250 µm) and coarse sand (250–2000 µm) fractions, the contents of carbon (C) and nitrogen were determined. In all three agro‐ecosystems, using a mono‐exponential model, the SOC stocks increased exponentially until a maximum was reached 10–95 years after land conversion. This gain in SOC was clearly pronounced for the top 0–5 cm of soil, but hardly detectable at 10–20‐cm depth. The sand fractions recovered organic C more rapidly but less completely than did the finer size separates. Overall, between 9.0 and 15.3 t of SOC were sequestered in the 0–20 cm of surface soil by this land conversion. Thus, the SOC recovery in the secondary pastures resulted in SOC stocks that were 29.6–93.9% greater than those in the arable land. Yet, in no agro‐ecosystem, at any soil depth, nor in any soil fraction, did the measured SOC content reach that of the primary grassland. In part this can be attributed to a slightly finer texture of the primary grassland that had not lost silt through wind erosion or had never been used as arable land because of slightly elevated clay contents. Overall it appears, however, that previous losses of SOM cannot easily be rectified, suggesting that the native primary grassland soils are only partially resilient to land‐use change.     

陕南秦巴山区退耕还林与可持续发展研究——改汉中市为例

汉中市位于陕南秦巴山区，是南水北调中线工程的重要水源地，长期以来水土流失严重。根据汉中市水土流失情况，以生态优先、综合治理原则，确定了四个重点退耕区。实施退耕还林工程。汉中市植被覆盖增加，水土流失得到治理，生态环境改善。通过分析退耕还林使耕地面积减少，粮食总产量下降，但汉中并不存在粮食安全问题。退耕还林促使土地利用结构发生改变。农业产业结构调整，农业总产值增长。通过退耕还林，汉中市实现生态、经济和社会的可持续发展。     

Cropland age from grassland conversion to cropland affects nitrous oxide emissions

The effects of soil properties and cropland age on atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions following the conversion of grassland to cropland in temperate grassland ecosystems are uncertain. In this study, N₂O emissions were compared among grassland and cropland soils in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia over three growing seasons. Four adjacent sites with different land-use histories were selected, including grassland and croplands cultivated for 5, 10, and 50 years after conversion. N₂O flux measurements were obtained using a closed-chamber method and were performed continuously during vegetation periods. After the conversion of grassland to cropland, N₂O emission initially decreased and thereafter increased in the study sites. The cumulative N₂O emissions of the cropland soils 5 and 10 years in age were 10–50% less than those of the grassland, and the N₂O emissions from the cropland soil 50 years in age were 10–30% greater than the grassland. When the seasonal emissions were correlated against single soil parameter, the key soil parameter that affected N₂O emissions over the entire growing season was the soil moisture content. When the interactions among soil parameters were considered, the amount of N₂O emissions could be quantitatively described by a linear combination of two soil variables, the soil ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N) and moisture concentrations. This study demonstrates how the time of land use conversion from grassland to cropland can positively or negatively affect N₂O emission.     

Conversion of cropland into grassland: Implications for soil organic‐carbon stocks in two soils with different texture

Soil organic‐carbon (SOC) stocks are expected to increase after conversion of cropland into grassland. Two adjacent cropland and grassland sites—one with a Vertisol with 23 y after conversion and one with an Arenosol 29 y after conversion—were sampled down to 60 cm depth. Concentrations of SOC and total nitrogen (N_tot) were measured before and after density fractionation in two light fractions and a mineral‐associated fraction with C adsorbed on mineral surfaces. For the soil profiles, SOC stocks and radiocarbon (¹⁴C) concentrations of mineral associated C were determined. Carbon stocks and mineral‐associated SOC concentrations were increased in the upper 10 cm of the grassland soil compared to the cropland. This corresponded to the root‐biomass distribution, with 59% and 86% of the total root biomass at 0–5 cm soil depth of the grasslands. However, at the Arenosol site, at 10–20 cm depth, C in the mineral‐associated fraction was lost 29 y after the conversion into grassland. Over all, SOC stocks were not significantly different between grassland and cropland at both sites when the whole profile was taken into account. At the Arenosol site, the impact of land‐use conversion on SOC accumulation was limited by low total clay surface area available for C stabilization. Subsoil C (30–50 cm) at cropland of the Vertisol site comprised 32% of the total SOC stocks with high ¹⁴C concentrations below the plowing horizon. We concluded that fresh C was effectively translocated into the subsoil. Thus, subsoil C has to be taken into account when land‐use change effects on SOC are assessed.     

Physikalische Eigenschaften von drei Bodentypen unter Acker und Grünland

Physical conditions of three soil types under arable land and pasture To evaluate the effect of the use of agricultural heavy machinery on soil structure, physical properties of three soil types (Typic Chromudert, Aquic Hapludalf, and Typic Hapludalf) managed as cropland and permanent grassland were studied under the climatic conditions of Upper Bavaria (FRG). Bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and aggregate stability were adversely affected by heavy machinery down to soil depths of at least 50 cm. Only in some cases the bulk density of aggregates was significantly increased by heavy machinery, showing that heavy machinery causes soil compaction due to a rearrangement of small soil aggregates in comparison to permanent grassland.     

黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用格局变化分析

利用1977年的MSS,1997年和2006年的TM影像,获取3期多沙粗沙区土地利用变化的基础数据,选取土地利用类型动态度、动态转移矩阵、土地利用变化类型的多度和重要度指数,研究多沙粗沙区的土地利用格局变化特征。结果表明：1）居民点及工矿用地和林地面积均保持持续上升态势,耕地和未利用地呈下降趋势,草地呈先减少后增加的趋势,水域则呈先增加后减少的态势,与1977-1997年间相比,1997-2006年间土地利用类型间的相互转化有所增强;2）2期间土地利用流向基本一致,耕地和草地、草地和林地、草地和未利用地之间存在互动变化;3）耕地、草地、林地和未利用地是本区土地利用变化的主导类型和主要方向,耕地和草地间的互动变化主要发生在片沙丘陵区和梁峁丘陵区,草地和林地间的互动变化主要发生在风沙丘陵区和土石山区,草地和未利用地间的互动变化主要发生在风沙丘陵区。     

河南省土地覆盖变化的时空特征分析

以遥感与GIS为技术支撑,对河南省20世纪80年代至2005年的土地覆盖进行了动态监测,并分析了土地覆盖变化的时空特征及其驱动因子.监测结果表明,河南省土地覆盖变化的时空特征为:(1)变化数量.城镇建设用地显著增加,内陆水体面积增加明显,农村聚落和落叶阔叶林有所增加,常绿阔叶林略有增加;灌丛草地、水浇地、旱地和河湖滩地面积减少明显.(2)变化速度.城镇建设用地面积增速迅猛,内陆水体增速明显;沙地面积减速最快,裸地、沼泽和草甸草地减速较快,河湖滩地和灌丛草地减速明显,旱地和水浇地面积减速较小.(3)空间转换.以农田和聚落之间的转换为主,另外城镇建设用地的增加包括其扩展融人的农村聚落等;内陆水体增加主要由河湖滩地转变的;灌丛草地减少主要转变为旱地.驱动力分析表明,区域自然因素相对稳定,对土地覆盖变化的影响较小,而人口增长、经济发展、农业结构调整、政策和交通等社会经济因素是河南省土地覆盖变化的主要驱动力.河南省土地覆盖变化的总体特征与区域经济发展、产业布局及其工业化、城市化演变的特征十分吻合.