The impact of climate change on forest fire danger rating in China’s boreal forest

The Great Xing’an Mountains boreal forests were focused on in the northeastern China.The simulated future climate scenarios of IPCC SRES A2a and B2a for both the baseline period of 1961-1990 and the future scenario periods were downscaled by the Delta Method and the Weather Generator to produce daily weather data.After the verification with local weather and fire data,the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was used to assess the forest fire weather situation under climate change in the study region.An increasing trend of fire weather severity was found over the 21st century in the study region under the both future climate change scenarios,compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period.The annual mean/maximum fire weather index was predicted to rise continuously during 2010-2099,and by the end of the 21st century it is predicted to rise by 22%-52% across much of China’s boreal forest.The significant increases were predicted in the spring from of April to June and in the summer from July to August.In the summer,the fire weather index was predicted to be higher than the current index by as much as 148% by the end of the 21st century.Under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a,both the chance of extremely high fire danger occurrence and the number of days of extremely high fire danger occurrence was predicted to increase in the study region.It is anticipated that the number of extremely high fire danger days would increase from 44 days in 1980s to 53-75 days by the end of the 21st century.     

Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991-2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.     

Forest fire danger ratings in the 2040s for northeastern China

The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55°C under two scenarios selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041 2050), which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio (2×CO 2 /1×CO 2 ) show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.     

Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey: future evaluation

This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability.     

Forecasting the development of boreal paludified forests in response to climate change: a case study using Ontario ecosite classification

Background:Successional paludification,a dynamic process that leads to the formation of peatlands,is influenced by climatic factors and site features such as surficial deposits and soil texture.In boreal regions,projected climate change and corresponding modifications in natural fire regimes are expected to influence the paludification process and forest development.The objective of this study was to forecast the development of boreal paludified forests in northeastern North America in relation to climate change and modifications in the natural fire regime for the period 2011–2100.Methods:A paludification index was built using static(e.g.surficial deposits and soil texture)and dynamic(e.g.moisture regime and soil organic layer thickness)stand scale factors available from forest maps.The index considered the effects of three temperature increase scenarios(i.e.+1°C,+3°C and+6°C)and progressively decreasing fire cycle(from 300 years for 2011–2041,to 200 years for 2071–2100)on peat accumulation rate and soil organic layer(SOL)thickness at the stand level,and paludification at the landscape level.Results:Our index show that in the context where in the absence of fire the landscape continues to paludify,the negative effect of climate change on peat accumulation resulted in little modification to SOL thickness at the stand level,and no change in the paludification level of the study area between 2011 and 2100.However,including decreasing fire cycle to the index resulted in declines in paludified area.Overall,the index predicts a slight to moderate decrease in the area covered by paludified forests in 2100,with slower rates of paludification.Conclusions:Slower paludification rates imply greater forest productivity and a greater potential for forest harvest,but also a gradual loss of open paludified stands,which could impact the carbon balance in paludified landscapes.Nonetheless,as the thick Sphagnum layer typical of paludified forests may protect soil organic layer from drought and deep burns,a significant proportion of the territory has high potential to remain a carbon sink.     

Forest Fires and Prevention Strategies in Northwestern Region of China

The paper described the natural conditions and forest types in Northwestern Region of China. Most forests in the region are distributed in subalpine areas. It is important to protect the existent forests in the region for maintaining ecological balance. According to the statistics results of 1991~2000, the paper analyzes the forest fires distribution and fire severity. Annually the numbers of forest fires range from 52 to 240. The incidence rate of forest fires in Northwestern Region is under 0.33 per ten thousand ha. There are 0.67-64.4 ha burned area per ten thousand ha forest. The main reasons for forest fires lie in the dry weather conditions, many firebrands, and high fuel loading. The strategies of fire management in the region are to stress the fire education in forest regions, strength the firebrands' management, emphasize the fuel management, and improve the fire monitoring and fire control ability.     

Decline and dieback of cork oak(Quercus suber L.) forests in the Mediterranean basin: a case study of Kroumirie,Northwest Tunisia

Assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the climate change context is a challenging task as the mechanisms that determine this vulnerability cannot be directly observed. Based on the ecological interrelationships between forests and climate, the present review focused on providing current information about vulnerability assessments of cork oak(Quercus suber L.) forests in the Mediterranean basin, especially, in the Kroumirie region(northwest Tunisia), currently under historic extreme drought conditions. From comparing recent findings in this region, we synthesized data on cork oak decline and mortality collected during the historic drought years 1988–1995 period. Climate change impacts cork forest decline, with special interest shown in elevated temperatures and drought; cork oak forest regeneration, and the adaptation of the Kroumirie forest to climate change, are reviewed herein. The studied region has been influenced largely by frequent prolonged drought periods, especially from 1988 to 1995. Droughts were found to consistently have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of cork oak populations. Cork oak mortality was recorded for up to 63,622 trees. In the future, more research studies and observational data will be needed, which could represent an important key to understand ecosystem processes, and to facilitate the development of better models that project climate change impacts and vulnerability. The study is useful for researchers and forestry decision makers to develop the appropriate strategies to restore and protect ecosystems, and to help anticipate potential future droughts and climate change.     

The predicted effects of climate change on local species distributions around Beijing,China

To assist conservationists and policymakers in managing and protecting forests in Beijing from the effects of climate change, this study predicts changes for 2012–2112 in habitable areas of three tree species—Betula platyphylla, Quercus palustris, Platycladus orientalis, plus other mixed broadleaf species—in Beijing using a classification and regression tree niche model under the International Panel on Climate Change's A2 and B2 emissions scenarios(SRES). The results show that climate change will increase annual average temperatures in the Beijing area by 2.0–4.7 ℃, and annual precipitation by4.7–8.5 mm, depending on the emissions scenario used.These changes result in shifts in the range of each of the species. New suitable areas for distributions of B. platyphylla and Q. palustris will decrease in the future. The model points to significant shifts in the distributions of these species, withdrawing from their current ranges and pushing southward towards central Beijing. Most of the ranges decline during the initial 2012–2040 period before shifting southward and ending up larger overall at the end of the 88-year period. The mixed broadleaf forests expand their ranges significantly. The P. orientalis forests, on the other hand, expand their range marginally. The results indicate that climate change and its effects will accelerate significantly in Beijing over the next 88 years. Water stress is likely to be a major limiting factor on the distribution of forests and the most important factor affecting migration of species into and out of existing nature reserves. There is a potential for the extinction of some species. Therefore,long-term vegetation monitoring and warning systems will be needed to protect local species from habitat loss and genetic swamping of native species by hybrids.     

Modeling surface fuels moisture content in Pinus brutia stands

Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.     

The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia

Simulation of fire impact on forest floor renewal in pine forests was based on predictions for 2100 by the Canadian Climate Centre for increase in temperatures of by4.5℃ and total precipitation by 14% in the West Siberian pre-forest-steppes and empirical regression relationships between them and the degree of burnt forest floor,as well as amount of Pinus sylvestris L.regeneration.It was predicted that by 2100,pine regeneration on fire prone sites under the canopy of the dominant forest type will increase by 29-54% compared to the 1980 s but on adjacent open sites,regeneration will decrease twice as much.This means that the regeneration potential and pine population stability in pre-forest-steppes will become as poor as it is today.     

Forest fire risk indices and zoning of hazardous areas in Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil

This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator(KDE)in the municipality of Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil.The logarithmic Telicyn index,Monte Alegre formula(MAF)and enhanced Monte Alegre formula(MAF+)were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016.Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology(INMET)and the Institute for Space Research(INPE),respectively.Two performance measures were calculated:Heidke skill score(SS)and success rate(SR).The MAF+index was the most accurate,with values of SS and SR of 0.611%and 62.8%,respectively.The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high(63 km^2)and very high(47 km^2)risk of fires in the municipality.Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.     

Satellite remote-sensing technologies used in forest fire management

Satellite remote sensing has become a primary data source for fire danger rating prediction, fuel and fire mapping, fire monitoring, and fire ecology research. This paper summarizes the research achievements in these research fields, and discusses the future trend in the use of satellite remote-sensing techniques in wildfire management. Fuel-type maps from remote-sensing data can now be produced at spatial and temporal scales quite adequate for operational fire management applications. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites are being used for fire detection worldwide due to their high temporal resolution and ability to detect fires in remote regions. Results can be quickly presented on many Websites providing a valuable service readily available to fire agency. As cost-effective tools, satellite remote-sensing techniques play an important role in fire mapping. Improved remote-sensing techniques have the potential to date older fire scars and provide estimates of burn severity. Satellite remote sensing is well suited to assessing the extent of biomass burning, a prerequisite for estimating emissions at regional and global scaleswhich are needed for better understanding the effects of fire on climate change. The types of satellites used in fire research are also discussed in the paper. Suggestions on what remote-sensing efforts should be completed in China to modernize fire management technology in this country are given.     

Fire cycle of the Canada's boreal region and its potential response to global change

Interactions of fire cycle and plant species' reproductive characteristics could determine vegetation distribution pattern of a landscape. In Canada's boreal region, fire cycles before the Little Ice Age (c. 1850s) ranged from 30-130 years and 25-234 years afterwards until the settlement period (c. 1930s) when longer fire cycles occurred in response to climatic change and human interference. Analysis indi-cated that fire cycles were correlated with growing season (April-October) temperature and precipitation departure from the 1961-1990 nor-mal, varying by regions. Assuming that wildfires will respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century, an assess-ment using climatic change scenarios CGCM1, CGCM2 and HadCM2 indicates fire cycles would divert to a range of 80-140 years in the west taiga shield, more than 700 years for the east boreal shield and east taiga shield, and 300-400 years for the boreal plains in 2050.     

Fire cycle of the Canada＇s boreal region and its potential response to global change

Interactions of fire cycle and plant species＇ reproductive characteristics could determine vegetation distribution pattern of a landscape. In Canada＇s boreal region, fire cycles before the Little Ice Age （c. 1850s） ranged from 30-130 years and 25-234 years afterwards until the settlement period （c. 1930s） when longer fire cycles occurred in response to climatic change and human interference. Analysis indicated that fire cycles were correlated with growing season （April-October） temperature and precipitation departure from the 1961-1990 normal, varying by regions. Assuming that wildfires will respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century, an assessment using climatic change scenarios CGCMI, CGCM2 and HadCM2 indicates fire cycles would divert to a range of 80-140 years in the west taiga shield, more than 700 years for the east boreal shield and east taiga shield, and 300-400 years for the boreal plains in 2050.     

Climate change impacts and forest adaptation in the Asia–Pacific region: from regional experts' perspectives

Expert opinions have been used in a variety of fields to identify relevant issues and courses of action. This study surveys experts in forestry and climate change from the Asia–Pacific region to gauge their perspectives on the impacts of climate change and on the challenges faced by forest adaptation in the region, and explores recommendations and initiatives for adapting forests to climate change. There was consensus regarding the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and on economic sectors such as agriculture and forestry. Respondents also indicated a lack of public awareness and policy and legislation as challenges to addressing climate change. However, the results indicate differences in opinion between regions on the negative impacts of climate change and in satisfaction with actions taken to address climate change,highlighting the need for locally specific policies and research. The study presents specific recommendations to address issues of most concern, based on subregion and professional affiliation throughout the Asia–Pacific region.The results can be used to improve policy and forest management throughout the region. This research will also provide valuable suggestions on how to apply research findings and management recommendations outside of the AP region. The conclusions should be communicated relative to the level of the research and the target audience,ensuring that scientific findings and management recommendations are effectively communicated to ensure successful implementation of forest adaptation strategies.     

Spatiotemporal evidence of tree-growth resilience to climate variations for Yezo spruce(Picea jezoensis var. komarovii) on Changbai Mountain,Northeast China

Global warming-induced changes in tree-growth resilience to climate variations have been widely reported for mid-and high-latitude regions around the world. Most studies have focused on the spatial variability of trees in radial growth-climate relationships on Changbai Mountain in Northeast China, but little is known about temporal changes in tree growth in response to climate. We explored the stability of effect of climate variables on radial growth of Yezo spruce [Picea jezoensis Carr. var. komarovii(V.Vassil.) Cheng et L.K.Fu] at 1200, 1400, and 1600 m above sea level, representing low, middle, and upper ranges of the spruce-fir mixed forest on Changbai Mountain. The results showed that the relation between tree growth and climate did not vary with altitude, but the stability of the tree-growth-climate relationship did vary with altitude as the climate changed. Radial growth of Yezo spruce at allthree elevations was influenced primarily by maximum temperature during May(Tmax5) and mean minimum temperature from January to March(Tmin1-3). More specifically, the relationship strengthened significantly at lower elevations, but weakened significantly at higher elevation, and fluctuated at mid elevations since 1980.Increase in Tmin1-3 and decrease in Tmax5 were the main reasons for the decrease in the radial growth at three altitudes. The findings of this study clarified that the decrease in radial growth on Changbai Mountain is not a “divergence problem” of an unexpected decrease in tree growth in response to an increase in mean temperature and provides a reference for using tree-ring data to reconstruct climate patterns and/or predict the growth of trees under various climate change scenarios.     

Genecological zones and selection criteria for natural forest populations for conservation: the case of Boswellia papyrifera in Ethiopia

Rapid changes in land-use in the Combretum–Terminalia woodlands of northwestern Ethiopia are mainly due to the increases in commercial farming and immigration.We used integrated ecological and social data collection techniques,including subdivision of the vegetation zone,vegetation survey,focus group discussions and key informant interviews,to identify genecological zones and set criteria for selection of viable populations of Boswellia papyrifera(Del.)Hochst in Ethiopia for conservation.Interviews of senior experts were supported with a rating method and involved 43 respondents and focused on identifying and weighting criteria and indicators of selection in a participatory way to prioritize populations for conservation.Using mean annual rainfall data,we reclassified the Combretum–Terminalia woodland vegetation region into three moisture zones(wet,moist and dry),and designated them as genecological zones for B.papyrifera conservation.A total of 35 woody species were identified at Lemlem Terara site in Metema district,and the Shannon diversity index and evenness were 2.01 and of 0.62,respectively.There were 405 adult trees,and 10 saplings and3314 seedlings per ha.The trees were medium-sized with overall mean diameter at breast height(dbh) of 16.9(±9.5)cm.Seedling recruitment was poor due to grazing,crop production and fire incidences.Through a multi-criteria decision analysis,five criteria and 20 quantitative indicators were identified and weighted to prioritize populations for conservation.These criteria in their descending order of importance are(1) forest ecosystem health and vitality,(2)forest cover and population structure of B.papyrifera,(3)productive function of the forest,(4) biological diversity in the forest,and(5) socioeconomic benefits of the forest to communities.Multivariate tests in the general linear model revealed significant differences among researchers and nonresearchers in rating the criteria and indicators,but not among foresters and nonforesters.Hence,participatory multi-criteria decision analysis should involve people from various institutions to rectify decisions on conservation of the species.Careful evaluation of the investment policy environment and engaging those government bodies that are responsible to allocate the dry forests for commercial farming is recommended before the proposed criteria are applied to select populations for conservation,thus ensuring subsequent use of the outcomes of such exercises and better reconciling conservation and agricultural production increment goals.     

An application of data envelopment analysis to investigate the efficiency of lumber industry in northwestern Ontario, Canada

This study aims at exploring the technical efficiency of lumber industry in northwestern Ontario,Canada using data envelopment analysis(DEA).The DEA model analyzes relative technical efficiency of lumber mills with disproportionate inputs and outputs by dividing the 10year time series data,for inputs and outputs of 24 lumber mills,over two periods(1999-2003 and 2004-2008).Four inputs,namely,material(log volume),labour(man-hours),two types of energy(hog-fuel and electricity),and one output(lumber volume) are used in this study.The trend analysis shows an annual reduction of 10%,13% and 13% for lumber output,log consumption(input) and number of employees,respectively,during the period 1999-2008.The results from DEA with two scenarios with energy inputs and without energy inputs,for the two periods are found to be mixed and interesting.While some mills have improved their performance in terms of best use of available scarce inputs in the second period,some have shown negative per cent change in efficiency.In the with energy input and the without energy input scenario,some of the mills show a reduction in efficiency in the second period from the first period,with the highest estimated reductions of-13.9% and-47.6%,respectively.A possible explanation for these negative performances of mills in the latter period is the decline in production in the second period compared to the first period,where these mills were not able to adjust their inputs(mostly labour) as proportional lay-offs might not have been possible.These results provide policy makers and industry stakeholders with an improved understanding of the trends of efficiency and employment as well as reallocation opportunities of future inputs in order to increase benefits from this sector.     

Recent tree growth decline unprecedented over the last four centuries in a Tibetan juniper forest

Forest structure and function are subject to risks of growth declines from intensified drought and frequent extreme events related to climate warming.Knowledge of tree growth declines will help anticipate future responses of forests to climate change.In this study,we investigated tree growth declines over the last four centuries in a juniper forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.By analyzing the radial growth trajectories of individual trees,we identified two events of intense growth decline,one in 1817–1830 and the other in 1969–1999 over the past four centuries.The intensity of the recent decline was unprecedented in the period under study.Ring-width chronology showed a positive correlation with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Indices and a negative correlation with mean monthly temperatures in May and June.The recent intensified growth decline may have been due to temperatureinduced frequent droughts in the study area.Our findings suggest that trees in this juniper forest may face a higher risk of growth decline and even mortality under continued climate warming.