Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions

We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.     

Obesity and the environment: where do we go from here?

The obesity epidemic shows no signs of abating. There is an urgent need to push back against the environmental forces that are producing gradual weight gain in the population. Using data from national surveys, we estimate that affecting energy balance by 100 kilocalories per day (by a combination of reductions in energy intake and increases in physical activity) could prevent weight gain in most of the population. This can be achieved by small changes in behavior, such as 15 minutes per day of walking or eating a few less bites at each meal. Having a specific behavioral target for the prevention of weight gain may be key to arresting the obesity epidemic.     

Population cycles in small rodents

We conclude that population fluctuations in Microtus in southern Indiana are produced by a syndrome of changes in birth and death rates similar to that found in other species of voles and lemmings. The mechanisms which cause the changes in birth and death rates are demolished by fencing the population so that no dispersal can occur. Dispersal thus seems critical for population regulation in Microtus. Because most dispersal occurs during the increase phase of the population cycle and there is little dispersal during the decline phase, dispersal is not directly related to population density. Hence the quality of dispersing animals must be important, and we have found one case of increased dispersal tendency by one genotype. The failure of population regulation of Microtus in enclosed areas requires an explanation by any hypothesis attempting to explain population cycles in small rodents. It might be suggested that the fence changed the predation pressure on the enclosed populations. However, the fence was only 2 feet (0.6 meter) high and did not stop the entrance of foxes, weasels, shrews, or avian predators. A striking feature was that the habitat in the enclosures quickly recovered from complete devastation by the start of the spring growing season. Obviously the habitat and food quality were sufficient to support Microtus populations of abnormally high densities, and recovery of the habitat was sufficiently quick that the introduction of new animals to these enclosed areas resulted in another population explosion. Finally, hypotheses of population regulation by social stress must account for the finding that Microtus can exist at densities several times greater than normal without "stress" taking an obvious toll. We hypothesize that the prevention of dispersal changes the quality of the populations in the enclosures in comparison to those outside the fence. Voles forced to remain in an overcrowded fenced population do not suffer high mortality rates and continue to reproduce at abnormally high densities until starvation overtakes them. The initial behavioral interactions associated with crowding do not seem sufficient to cause voles to die in situ. What happens to animals during the population decline? Our studies have not answered this question. The animals did not appear to disperse, but it is possible that the method we used to measure dispersal (movement into a vacant habitat) missed a large segment of dispersing voles which did not remain in the vacant area but kept on moving. Perhaps the dispersal during the increase phase of the population cycle is a colonization type of dispersal, and the animals taking part in it are likely to stay in a new habitat, while during the population decline dispersal is a pathological response to high density, and the animals are not attracted to settling even in a vacant habitat. The alternative to this suggestion is that animals are dying in situ during the decline because of physiological or genetically determined behavioral stress. Thus the fencing of a population prevents the change in rates of survival and reproduction, from high rates in the increase phase to low rates in the decline phase, and the fenced populations resemble "mouse plagues." A possible explanation is that the differential dispersal of animals during the phase of increase causes the quality of the voles remaining at peak densities in wild populations to be different from the quality of voles at much higher densities in enclosures. Increased sensitivity to density in Microtus could cause the decline of wild populations at densities lower than those reached by fenced populations in which selection through dispersal has been prevented. Fencing might also alter the social interactions among Microtus in other ways that are not understood. The analysis of colonizing species by MacArthur and Wilson (27) can be applied to our studies of dispersal in populations of Microtus. Groups of organisms with good dispersal and colonizing ability are called r strategists because they have high reproductive potential and are able to exploit a new environment rapidly. Dispersing voles seem to be r strategists. Young females in breeding condition were over-represented in dispersing female Microtus (17). The Tf(C)/Tf(E) females, which were more common among dispersers during the phase of population increase (Fig. 6), also have a slight reproductive advantage over the other Tf genotypes (19). Thus in Microtus populations the animals with the highest reproductive potential, the r strategists, are dispersing. The segment of the population which remains behind after the selection-via-dispersal are those individuals which are less influenced by increasing population densities. These are the individuals which maximize use of the habitat, the K strategists in MacArthur and Wilson's terminology, or voles selected for spacing behavior. Thus we can describe population cycles in Microtus in the same theoretical framework as colonizing species on islands. Our work on Microtus is consistent with the hypothesis of genetic and behavioral effects proposed by Chitty (6) (Fig. 7) in that it shows both behavioral differences in males during the phases of population fluctuation and periods of strong genetic selection. The greatest gaps in our knowledge are in the area of genetic-behavioral interactions which are most difficult to measure. We have no information on the heritability of aggressive behavior in voles. The pathways by which behavioral events are translated into physiological changes which affect reproduction and growth have been carefully analyzed by Christian and his associates (28) for rodents in laboratory situations, but the application of these findings to the complex field events described above remains to be done. Several experiments are suggested by our work. First, other populations of other rodent species should increase to abnormal densities if enclosed in a large fenced area (29). We need to find situations in which this prediction is not fulfilled. Island populations may be an important source of material for such an experiment (30). Second, if one-way exit doors were provided from a fenced area, normal population regulation through dispersal should occur. This experiment would provide another method by which dispersers could be identified. Third, if dispersal were prevented after a population reached peak densities, a normal decline phase should occur. This prediction is based on the assumption that dispersal during the increase phase is sufficient to ensure the decline phase 1 or 2 years later. All these experiments are concerned with the dispersal factor, and our work on Microtus can be summarized by the admonition: study dispersal.     

Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens

A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.     

Long-term monitoring of bacteria undergoing programmed population control in a microchemostat

Using an active approach to preventing biofilm formation, we implemented a microfluidic bioreactor that enables long-term culture and monitoring of extremely small populations of bacteria with single-cell resolution. We used this device to observe the dynamics of Escherichia coli carrying a synthetic "population control" circuit that regulates cell density through a feedback mechanism based on quorum sensing. The microfluidic bioreactor enabled long-term monitoring of unnatural behavior programmed by the synthetic circuit, which included sustained oscillations in cell density and associated morphological changes, over hundreds of hours.     

SO2污染空气影响下树木叶片叶绿素含量的动态变化

利用分光光度计测定ＳＯ２污染空气影响下,乌鲁木齐常见绿化树种新疆柏（Ｐｏｐｕ－ｌｕｓＦｏｌｅａｎａ）、大叶白腊（Ｆｒａｘｉｎｕｚａｍｅｒｉｃａｎａ）和新疆大叶榆（Ｕｌｍｕｚｌａｅｖｉｓ）叶片中叶绿素（ＣＡ,ＣＢ,ＣＴ）含量的动态变化以了解其抗病特点。研究表明,在空气污染状况下,各树种表现不同,植物具有一定的自我调节能力,叶绿素相对含量在各阶段的动态变化可做为衡量树种抗性大小的一个有价值的参考指标     

Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.     

F2群体动态性状基因定位的极大似然分析

把表型值随着时间(生命时期、年龄、胎次等)或其他可以量化的因素(生理状态、生产水平、代谢率和环境条件等)变化的性状称为动态性状。受动物遗传育种中用来估计动态性状育种值的随机回归测定日模型思想的启发,将关于时间(测定日期)的Legendre多项式镶嵌在遗传模型的每个遗传效应中,以刻画QTL对动态性状变化过程的作用,从而建立起动态性状基因定位的数学模型。以F2遗传设计群体为例,论述了动态性状基因定位分析的基本原理,推导了QTL效应大小和位置的极大似然法估计过程。选择3次Legendre多项式为子模型,采用MonteCarlo方法模拟F2设计群体,研究抽样群体大小和测定日密度对不同遗传力QTL检测效力的影响。利用正交设计安排因素试验组合,分析模拟试验结果表明:高遗传力的要比低遗传力的QTL在检测时需要较少个体数和测定日抽样;但不论QTL的遗传力多大,300以上的群体大小和5%以上的测定日密度都可以保证足够高的检测效力。     

柳杉人工林密度效应新模型

根据植物种群平均单株材积增长模式和最终产量恒定理论,提出一种新的植物种群密度效应机制模型:V-β=ANβ+B.这里N和V分别为林分密度和平均单株材积;A、B、β分别是随生长阶段而变化的参数.采用柳杉人工林标准地密度变化调查材料进行验证,表明该模型能很好地摸拟柳杉人工林种群密度效应规律,明显优于目前林分密度控制中最常用的密度效应倒数模型和二次效应模型,显示了较大的优越性和较高的准确性.在新的密度效应机制模型中,取β=1可得密度效应倒数模型,该模型仅为文中新模型的一个特例.     

Dynamics of replication-independent histone turnover in budding yeast

Chromatin plays roles in processes governed by different time scales. To assay the dynamic behavior of chromatin in living cells, we used genomic tiling arrays to measure histone H3 turnover in G1-arrested Saccharomyces cerevisiae at single-nucleosome resolution over 4% of the genome, and at lower (approximately 265 base pair) resolution over the entire genome. We find that nucleosomes at promoters are replaced more rapidly than at coding regions and that replacement rates over coding regions correlate with polymerase density. In addition, rapid histone turnover is found at known chromatin boundary elements. These results suggest that rapid histone turnover serves to functionally separate chromatin domains and prevent spread of histone states.     

Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics

Whereas case rates for some childhood diseases (chickenpox) often vary according to an almost regular annual cycle, the incidence of more efficiently transmitted infections such as measles is more variable. Three hypotheses have been proposed to account for such fluctuations. (i) Irregular dynamics result from random shocks to systems with stable equilibria. (ii) The intrinsic dynamics correspond to biennial cycles that are subject to stochastic forcing. (iii) Aperiodic fluctuations are intrinsic to the epidemiology. Comparison of real world data and epidemiological models suggests that measles epidemics are inherently chaotic. Conversely, the extent to which chickenpox outbreaks approximate a yearly cycle depends inversely on the population size.     

中国沙棘平茬萌蘖种群的密度动态及其调节规律

以样地每木检尺资料为基础,依据“空间差异代替时间变化法”以及“样地编年序列法”的原理,探讨了中国沙棘Hippophae rhamniodes subsp． sinensis平茬萌蘖种群的密度动态及其调节规律。结果表明：通过萌蘖植株、分蘖和构件密度制约的出生与死亡调节,中国沙棘从个体数量、分株形态、构件生物量分配等不同层次维持种群适宜的数量和结构。①种群通过萌蘖植株的出生与死亡调节不断改变着种群密度,依次可将种群密度动态分为上升、下降和平稳等3个阶段。②种群通过分蘖的出生与死亡调节,不断改变着萌蘖植株的形态。随着种群基盖度的增大,合轴型分株的比例下降而单轴型分株的比例上升。③种群通过构件的出生与死亡调节,不断改变着构件的生物量分配。随着种群基盖度的增大,枯枝生物量分配上升而叶片生物量分配下降,克隆器官和根系的生物量分配均呈下降趋势。④研究对象的生物量分配已趋于平稳,亟待再次平茬或创造林窗恢复种群的繁殖、生长和存活能力。由此可得出结论：中国沙棘平茬后,通过克隆植株、分蘖及构件的密度制约出生与死亡调节,使种群形成与环境资源供应水平相适应的个体数量与分株形态,从而实现对生境资源的合理利用以及种群持久性的维持。图3表1参22     

小白菜花叶病流行及其介体种群时空动态的模糊聚类分析

利用模糊聚类分析方法对小白菜花叶病介体蚜虫种群增长和病害流行的时空动态分别进行分析,并对介体种群增长和病害流行时空动态进行概述。田外带毒介体扩散迁入,花叶病开始发生,在病害流行初期,由于介体在本田内未建立种群,来自田外的带毒有翅蚜虫在田内随机扩散,导致病害的空间扩展迅速,病样方率逐渐上升,病株率伴随上升,每病样方多为1株病株;在病害流行前期,随着介体的进一步迁入和定殖,病害的空间扩展加快,病样方率迅速上升,样方内病株数量增加,病害严重度上升缓慢;在病害流行中期,田内介体种群密度上升,有翅介体在田内大量扩散,导致病株遍及全田,病样方率接近饱和,病害的增长以病株率上升为主;在病害流行后期,病株率接近饱和,严重度迅速上升,然后超于平缓。     

服从Gompertz增长的两斑块种群模型及其定性分析

为研究同一个种群分布在保护区和非保护区两个不同的斑块环境中的生长情况,建立种群密度服从Gompertz增长的生物模型。分别应用微分方程理论和数学软件对模型进行定性分析和数值分析,得到模型有唯一的稳定的正规结点。即两个斑块内的种群密度随着时间的增长,最终会稳定在一个固定值。同时讨论斑块间不存在迁移和努力度逐渐增大时的两斑块内种群的密度情况。结果表明：若不存在斑块间的迁移,保护区斑块内种群密度将会达到最大环境容量,而非保护区斑块内种群密度将趋于稳定;随着努力度的增加,会出现过度捕捞,最终导致非保护区斑块内的种群趋于灭亡。     

北京市延庆县动物疫病监测存在问题对策

动物疫病监测在动物疫病预防控制工作中占有重要地位,是防疫法明确规定的动物疫病预防控制部门的工作职责。近年来,由于动物疫情的新变化,政府部门对动物疫病防控要求也越来越严格,从而对监测工作也提出了更高的要求。在调查研究的基础上分析了北京市延庆县动物疫病监测工作主要存在问题,并结合实际情况提出了相应的改进措施。以期强化动物疫病监测效果,提高动物疫情预警预报能力。     

昆虫性信息素在信阳茶园中的应用效果初报

为了探索昆虫性信息素在茶园中的应用效果,利用茶毛虫和茶尺蠖性信息素在信阳震雷山茶园进行了引诱试验.结果发现,当虫口密度较低时,性诱剂诱虫量与害虫的种群数量呈正相关,能准确反映害虫种群数量的变化动态.如茶尺蠖第1代成虫,性诱剂每日诱虫量高于黑光灯诱虫量,其中性诱剂日诱虫量最多为35头,而同日黑光灯的诱虫量仅为3头;茶毛虫...     

晚明南直疫灾:“大变迁”下的环境脆弱与社会拯救

在晚明"大变迁"的背景下,南直隶的自然环境和社会环境日趋脆弱,成为了疫灾的高发地区。在时间和空间上,南直隶的疫灾呈现出明显的不平衡性,就发生时间而言,崇祯年间疫灾发生密度最高;在发生地区上,以苏州府、扬州府、应天府、淮安府、凤阳府等地区疫灾暴发次数为多。频繁的疫灾不仅直接危害人民生命安全,甚至会引发严重的经济、政治危机,故而以各级政府为代表的官方力量和以士绅、宗族、医家为主体的民间力量都进行了积极应对,形成了社会性的防疫救灾网络。这些举措包括开仓赈粮、捐赀救济、施医送药、施棺助葬等方面,为当地的疫灾治理做出了重要贡献。     

麦蚜种群动态的灰色区间 Fuzzy 聚类分析

本文从麦蚜种群的数量、空间和时间的统一观出发,选用百株蚜量((?)x_1∈〔(?),(?)〕)、聚块性指标(_m/m=(?)x_2∈〔(?),(?)〕)和有蚜株率((?)x-3∈〔(?),(?)〕)作为种群动态的特征测度,用灰色区闻模糊聚类分析法,将田间的种群动态化分为若干个亚系统,然后对每个亚系统中的种群动态进行了分析.     

种植密度对油葵单株和群体效应的影响

研究不同种植密度下油葵单株和群体叶面积，干物质积累情况及产量的变化，探讨单株和群体之间的相互影响。结果表明只有保持单株和群体之间的平衡，即在一定的种植密度下保持相对较高的单株生产力，品种才能获得高产。     

寄主生育期、接种条件对玉米弯孢菌叶斑病发生的影响

为了明确不同因子对玉米弯孢菌叶斑病发生的定量影响,采用室内离体叶片及田间接种方法,通过人工控制不同生育期及接种条件,定量研究了不同因子对玉米弯孢菌叶斑病发生的影响。结果表明,玉米感病性随生育期的延长而增加,单位面积叶片上的病斑数随接种浓度的增大而增加,并随接种浓度呈直线增长。当叶面保湿时间大于8 h时,叶面保湿时间越长病斑数越多,其变化呈逻辑斯蒂模型趋势。温度对病害的潜育期有重要影响,在10~35℃时,温度越高潜育期越短。不同接种量对玉米弯孢菌叶斑病的病情发展动态有重要作用,低浓度下接种,病害的病情发展曲线近似为直线,增长较为平缓;高接种量条件下,病情增长较为迅速,接近S型曲线。