中国林产品贸易形势与人造板产业发展趋势分析

全球林产品贸易形势 全球林产品贸易总量和贸易总额经过恢复性增长后有所回落,出现了新的增长性趋势(图1). 全球林产品贸易格局正在调整 欧美发达国家在高端产品领域继续占据着制高点,欧洲和北美洲仍是林产品贸易的主体,但其份额占比逐渐收窄.亚洲成为林产品贸易发展的重要区域,木材贸易额已超过北美,在各大洲中位居世界第二位.中国已是全球第一大木材进口国、人造板出口国和林产品贸易国,而越南、马来西亚和印尼等正在成为中国在林产品生产领域的主要竞争者.俄罗斯、南美、非洲、太平洋岛国等传统木材资源出口国,正利用其森林资源优势,逐步减少原木出口,加快产业结构调整,发展自己的木材加工工业.单纯的资源型林产品贸易正在受到抑制,高附加值加工产品,特别是精深加工产品贸易迅速扩大.     

中国经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗影响的实证分析

【目的】目前,中国已成为全球第二大木材消耗国和第一大木材进口国,由于中国森林资源总量相对不足,木材需求与生态环境的矛盾日益突出,使经济发展、林产品贸易因涉嫌消耗大量木材而备受争议。确定中国经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗的影响,有助于回应有关中国是"世界森林资源的黑洞"的指责、审视中国"大进大出"林产品贸易模式、考量世界范围兴起的林产品贸易保护,为中国林业产业发展相关政策制定提供科学依据。【方法】以人均木材消耗作为森林资源的压力指标,采用中国1993—2013年时间序列数据,运用多元线性回归模型对影响中国人均木材消耗的经济发展、林产品贸易、木材供给、技术进步等关键因素进行实证分析。【结果】中国经济发展因素即人均国内生产总值(1%显著水平)、林产品贸易因素中中国林产品进口贸易(10%显著水平)、木材供给因素中中国人均森林蓄积量(10%显著水平)对中国人均木材消耗具有显著正向影响,林产品贸易因素中中国林产品出口贸易(1%显著水平)对中国人均木材消耗具有显著负向影响,林产品贸易因素中中国林产品进出口贸易规模指数、木材供给因素中中国人均原木产量、技术进步因素中中国木材产业技术进步指数和中国废纸浆利用率影响不显著。【结论】中国经济发展是影响人均木材消耗的重要因素,2006年以来中国人均木材消耗随着人均GDP正处于上升阶段;中国发展林产品出口贸易有利于减少中国人均木材消耗,中国林产品进口贸易虽然提高了中国人均木材消耗量,但相对于使用国产木材,人均木材消耗量的增加较小;由于超限额采伐等因素,中国原木产量不能很好地代表真实的中国国内木材供给状况,但以人均森林蓄积代表的木材供给因素仍是影响中国人均木材消耗最为显著、最为重要的正向作用因素;林业相关行业的技术进步对于减少人均木材消耗有着一定的积极作用,中国人口因素很大程度上降低了中国人均木材消耗,但由于中国人口基数太大,导致中国木材消耗总量仍处于世界前列。据此,本文提出了保持目前"大进大出"林产品贸易模式、积极推进林产品贸易自由化、保持木材供应适度偏紧、促进产业技术创新等相关建议。     

世界木材生产与贸易

日本新潟大学农学部教授荒谷明日儿在《木材情报》2006年1月发表文章，题为“世界木材生产与贸易现状”。作者以FAO最新发表的《林产品年鉴2003》为依据，将2003年世界木材生产和贸易情况与1995年进行比对，分析并概括了近年来世界木材生产和木材贸易发生的巨大变化。     

“变”字当头：2013年林产品贸易回顾分析

回顾2013年,全球工业生产和贸易疲弱,价格水平回落,国际金融市场持续波动,世界经济增速继续小幅回落。其中,发达国家增长动力略有增强,发展中国家困难增多。 世界经济格局的变化也对林产品贸易产生了影响。发达国家经济增长带动了全球的林产品生产及贸易,新兴市场和发展中国家贸易增速继续领先于发达国家,世界林产品贸易格局变动,受国际市场影响,中国林业产品贸易也悄然发生了变化。     

中国应对木材非法采伐的政策与行动

中国政府一贯主动保护世界森林资源,不但采取切实可行的措施保护本国森林资源,而且积极倡导国际林业进程保护各国森林资源,同时坚决打击木材非法采伐及相关贸易活动,进而推动全球生态环境改善。而且,中国木材和林产品进出口贸易是全球经济一体化与贸易自由化发展及世界资源优化配置的必然要求与结果,木材及林产品正常国际贸易与某一国家或地区林木乱砍滥伐没有直接关系,木材非法采伐及相关贸易和环境破坏问题大多发生在经济发展落后或者居民生计和社会矛盾突出地区;因此,应对木材非法     

2010年世界林产品生产、消费和贸易展望

本展望了2010年全球林产品生产、消费和贸易形势，总结了世界不同类型国家为解决林产品供需问题在实施林产工业产业政策方面准备进行的战略调整及将采取的主要措施。作展望了2010年全球木材和主要林产品的贸易趋势。     

中美贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响

中美贸易摩擦是中美经济关系中的重要问题。2018年中美贸易摩擦爆发后,双边经贸关系曲折不断,木质林产品贸易面临极大考验。文中在梳理2015—2020年中美双边木质林产品贸易数据的基础上,分析贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响。结果显示,中美贸易摩擦对双边贸易规模具有较大影响,贸易总额、进口额和出口额均大幅下降;木家具和人造板等木质林产品贸易受到较大冲击,双方短期内均难以找到替代市场;中国从美国进口原木和锯材大幅下降,但中国木材供应和木材安全未受到威胁。未来,建议从增加国内木材供应、拓展替代市场、优化林业产业结构、建立国际国内双循环的林产品市场方面积极应对贸易摩擦。     

世界非木材林产品的现状及其发展趋势

随着科学技术的进步和森林综合效益的提高,非木材林产品在促进当地社区的经济发展、保护生态环境和促进林业可持续发展方面的作用日益突出。文中介绍了世界几个国家非木材林产品的生产利用、研究情况;分析了目前非木材林产品开发利用中存在的问题并提出了相应的对策;最后预测了非木材林产品的发展趋势。     

20世纪90年代俄罗斯的林产品生产和贸易

俄罗斯的林产品出口在20世纪90年代一直呈递增趋势。预计今后俄罗斯的林产品出口仍将保持增长趋势。目前俄罗斯是世界第三大林产品贸易国,也是我国最大的林产品贸易国。俄罗斯具有巨大的木材生产潜力。未来出口的重点地区将是中国、日本和韩国等周边国家。研究和分析俄罗斯90年代林产品贸易情况和今后发展趋势,对我国的林产品贸易具有重要的现实意义。     

中国应对木材非法采伐的法规及制度

近年来,木材非法采伐和相关贸易问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注。作为林产品消费主要市场,美国于2008年颁布《雷斯法修正案》,禁止非法来源于美国或其它国家的林产品贸易;欧盟于2010年10月颁布《欧盟木材法案》,要求贸易商开展木材来源合法性的尽职调查,从而使非法木材投放市场的风险降到最低。澳大利亚于2011年出台了木材非法采伐禁令。我国作为全球第二大林产品生产和消费国,受到国际社会的误会和指责。美国和欧盟是我国林产品出口重要市场,占林产品出口总额的40%左右。欧美及澳大利亚出台的法规将对我国林产品国际贸易产生重大影响。为了在国际谈判中更好地保护发展中国家和我国的利益,应对国际上针对中国利用非法木材的诉讼,实施全球林业战略,提高我国在世界林业发展中的地位和作用,在国家林业局资助下,国家林业局林产品国际贸易研究中心组织开展了《应对木材非法采伐策略研究》项目。本栏目将对该研究部分成果作系列报道,以飨读者。     

打击木材非法采伐的森林执法管理与贸易国际进程

探讨了世界森林执法管理与贸易国际进程现状, 分析了森林执法管理与贸易进程和打击木材非法采伐存在的主要问题, 并提出推进国际森林公约、参与跨国联合行动、提高木材供给国执法能力、加强消费国木材监管体系建设、重视非政府组织意见、加强行业信用评价、积极开展森林认证和引导消费者的态度等加强森林执法管理与控制木材非法贸易的对策建议。     

Effects of accelerated tariff liberalization on the forest products sector: a global modeling approach

The objective of this study was to project the effects on the world forest sector of eliminating quickly all import tariffs. The projections were done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff reduction according to the current schedule of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; (2) complete elimination of all tariffs within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. The projections were obtained with the global forest products model (GFPM), for the years 1998–2010. The model gave market equilibrium projections of quantities produced, consumed, imported and exported for each of 180 countries, and for 14 commodity groups, covering roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp and recycled fibers and paper and paperboard. The model also projected world equilibrium prices. The results showed that, with or without ATL agreement, the world consumption and trade of all forest products would continue to grow along the historical trends, and the world prices of forest products would increase moderately. With the elimination of tariffs in APEC countries, the projected world production and consumption of all products would change little (less than 0.5%). The tariff reduction effects would be larger for trade, and the commodity composition of world trade would shift from raw materials to more processed products. The timber harvest would change in a number of countries, but the net effect at the world scale would be small. While the US consumption and production of forest products would change little, the US would reduce its export of logs and increase exports of most processed products. The US timber harvest was expected to be indistinguishable compared to what it would be in the absence of the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization agreement.     

Forest product trade,wood consumption,and forest conservation—the case of 61 countries

Trade barriers of forest products are often advocated in the name of protecting forest resources. Whether the promoting of trade of forest products will increase or decrease the global forest resources is still a matter of debate. We offer an assessment of how forest product trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating wood consumption change to trade of forest products based on cross-section data from 61 countries in 2010. The result shows that wood outputs have positive effects on wood consumption. Compared to domestic production, the result suggests that imports of forest products can help reduce wood consumption. This may indicate that trade liberalization can promote the allocation efficiency of timber resources across the global, which can improve the utilization efficiency and reduce the wood consumption in the world to protect the global forest resources. It is suggested that the high-efficient harvest and wood-processing technological transfer should be advocated in the international community to contribute to global forest conservation.     

气候谈判、木材产品国际贸易及其关系研究现状

文中介绍气候谈判产生的背景、谈判机制设计、影响谈判进程的因素等方面研究现状, 分析贸易政策与环境、资源禀赋、汇率变动等对木材产品国际贸易的影响; 在此基础上, 讨论气候谈判与木材产品国际贸易之间的关系。现有研究文献表明:气候谈判通过关税直接对木材产品国际贸易产生影响, 通过非关税措施包括森林认证、进口产品检验检疫、森林碳汇等对全球木材产品国际贸易产生直接或间接影响。然而, 这些研究主要还是基于简单的逻辑推理, 对于涉林气候谈判影响木材产品国际贸易的机理并没有进行深入剖析, 更没有通过大样本实证检验涉林气候谈判对木材产品国际贸易的影响。     

Contesting national and international forest regimes: Case of timber legality certification for community forests in Central Java,Indonesia

The Government of Indonesia (GoI) and the European Union (EU) have signed a Voluntary Partnership Agreement on Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT-VPA), which aims to prevent illegal timber products from entering the EU. This agreement recognizes a certification for timber products exported from Indonesia based on FLEGT-VPA standards and implemented through the timber legality verification system, Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu (SVLK). While the implementation of SVLK complies with the FLEGT-VPA, it has not dissolved pre-existing national systems for forest management and timber trade. Implementing SVLK standards amid multiple forest regimes causes redundancy of administrative procedures in forest management and timber trade in Indonesia. This redundancy, in turn, leads to decrease in cost efficiency, weak legitimation, and low effectiveness of the system, especially in community forests.     

Analysis of trade in illegally harvested timber: Accounting for trade via third party countries

The paper presents a model to analyse trade in illegally harvested timber with a particular focus on trade via third party countries. The model is deduced from the conventional input–output-analysis. In contrast to this type of analysis, inverse export coefficients are introduced to analyse the effect of a certain amount of country-specific supply, e.g., of illegally harvested timber, to the use of wood and wood products of all other countries, based on trade relationships. A database has been compiled especially for application of the model. It comprises data on industrial round-wood production in terms of industrial wood harvested and removed from the forest; recovered wood fibre in the form of recovered paper and waste wood; bilateral trade of 272 wood-based commodities in m³ raw wood equivalent (rwe), and domestic use of those commodities. Two scenarios expressing high and low estimates of illegal harvesting for all countries have been employed in the model. The model reveals the trade linkages between all countries of the world and allows quantification of the global supply and use arising from illegal harvesting. Furthermore it allows calculation of the import of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world. And finally, the model likewise allows the quantification of domestic use of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world.The results show that international trade increases the global domestic supply of illegally harvested timber by more than 70% in each scenario. In particular industrial round-wood from Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar passes through many countries until it ends in form of finished wood products in the country of final destination. Not only due to suggested illegally harvested timber in the own country, but also due to strongly developed trade relationships, China holds the lead in total supply and use of illegally harvested timber. However this result must be seen against the background of the large population in China. This aspect also helps to explain the predominant position of China, Brazil and Russia with regard to the domestic use of illegally harvested timber. A comparison of import of illegally harvested timber on the basis of “simple” (covering only bilateral trade) and inverse export coefficients demonstrates the model's merit. The hitherto usually simple approach underestimates the “real” trade by a third up to a half.     

中国加强进口木材合法性管理的经济影响分析

非法采伐及相关贸易被认为是导致毁林和全球气候变暖的主要原因之一,对全世界的经济、社会和环境带来了负面影响。中国是全球第1大林产品贸易国,进口木材已占我国木材来源的50%以上,而其中很多来自非伐采伐风险比较高的热带国家/地区,倍受国际舆论压力。在此背景下,中国政府正在不断完善相关法规政策以加强对进口木材合法性的管理。文中采用静态GTAP模型模拟了出台进口材合法性管理政策法规背景下企业选取不同合规机制对中国和全球林产品贸易的影响。结果表明,中国加强进口材合法性的管理将改变中国木材进口格局,其产生的主要福利损失由中国和被判定为非法采伐高风险的国家/地区承担,而低风险国家/地区则实现了福利增加。     

俄罗斯森林资源与木材生产分析

根据俄罗斯森林资源与木材生产发展状况, 探讨了俄罗斯森林资源的特点, 总结了俄罗斯木材生产面临的主要问题, 提出了俄罗斯林产品的品种和产量走势, 分析了俄罗斯森工行业和木材生产的发展机遇, 展望了中俄森林资源合作开发与林产品贸易和林业双边合作的发展前景。     

木材产品的国际贸易展望

文章回顾了国内外木材产品的贸易概况和趋势,讨论了环境问题对木材产品国际贸易的影响,指出入世后在全球经济一体化的新形势下,我国木材工业要根据国家可持续发展的整体目标,认清自身优势,迎接未来挑战,更好地利用森林和木材可再生资源,以更低的成本向客户提供更好的产品和服务,为生态建设、生态安全、生态文明作出贡献。