中美贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响

中美贸易摩擦是中美经济关系中的重要问题。2018年中美贸易摩擦爆发后,双边经贸关系曲折不断,木质林产品贸易面临极大考验。文中在梳理2015—2020年中美双边木质林产品贸易数据的基础上,分析贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响。结果显示,中美贸易摩擦对双边贸易规模具有较大影响,贸易总额、进口额和出口额均大幅下降;木家具和人造板等木质林产品贸易受到较大冲击,双方短期内均难以找到替代市场;中国从美国进口原木和锯材大幅下降,但中国木材供应和木材安全未受到威胁。未来,建议从增加国内木材供应、拓展替代市场、优化林业产业结构、建立国际国内双循环的林产品市场方面积极应对贸易摩擦。

Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Bilateral Trade of Woody Forest Products

Sino-US trade friction is a critical issue in the economic relationship between China and USA. The outbreak of the trade frictions in 2018 led to the setbacks in terms of the bilateral economic and trade relations between the two countries, and has brought the bilateral trade in woody forest products at risk. This paper analyzes the impact of the trade frictions on the bilateral trade in woody forest products between China and the United States based on the trade data related to woody forest products from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the trade frictions have imposed a large impact on the scale of the bilateral trade between China and the United States, with total trade, imports and exports declining significantly; the woody forest products such as wood furniture and wood-based panels have much suffered, and it is difficult for both China and the United States to find alternative markets in the short term; China's imports of logs and sawntimber from the United States have declined significantly, while China's timber supply and timber security have not been threatened. It is recommended to actively address the Sino-US trade friction in the future, in terms of increasing domestic timber supply, expanding alternative markets, optimizing forestry industry structure and establishing an international-domestic integrated market for woody forest products.