石羊河流域生态系统的气候变化脆弱性评估

选取石羊河流域生态系统作为研究对象,简要分析影响其生态系统气候变化脆弱性的主要因子。在此基础上,选取4类共13项指标,构建了生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系。通过层次分析法确定了指标权重,最后采用综合指标分析方法,对石羊河流域生态系统气候脆弱性现状进行了定量评价;结合气候变化情景,定量分析了未来该流域的脆弱性变化趋势,并给出减缓不利影响的对策和建议。     

Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme(G-DEP): Africa consultative meeting report

In order to enhance and restore the ecosystems of natural capital in African arid regions, the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme(G-DEP) consultative meeting was hosted in Dakar, Senegal, from 23 to 25 September 2019. This paper details the first African meeting of the G-DEP. Consultative meeting reviewed preceding dryland ecosystems case studies, identified vulnerable arid and semi-arid regions, and proposed sustainable solutions to problems. It also identified the successes and failures of previous attempts to improve vulnerable ecosystems and ultimately formed an action plan to improve these attempts. Climate, ecosystems, and livelihoods for Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs), Great Green Wall Initiative(GGWI) for Sahara and Sahel, and China-Africa cooperation on science, technology, and innovation are three extra main sections concerned of the meeting. Separately, more specific topics as the complicated relationship between these natural processes and human activity, including pastoralism, soil restoration, and vegetation regenerate techniques, were fully discussed. Consultative meeting also identified the positive effects international collaboration can have on dryland regions, specifically in the capacity of sharing information, technology, and innovation on purpose to develop a joint proposal for long-term research programs in African arid and semi-arid areas. Moreover, meetings that review the progress made on ecosystem management for the sustainable livelihoods in Africa, identification of priority areas, and the development and implementation of ecosystem programs for proper research and collaboration in African arid and semi-arid zones, have been proposed as strategic recommendations to enhance the global partnership for sustainable development. Furthermore, as the outcomes of the workshop, there are three steps proposed to handle African dryland climate changes, several aspects suggested to solve current dilemmas of the GGWI, and a series of actions recommended for G-DEP related activities in Africa.     

人类活动对亚洲中部水环境安全的威胁

主要依赖河流出山口的径流量维系山地-绿洲-荒漠间脆弱生态平衡的亚洲中部干旱区,其水分循环过程完全不同于湿润区。平原区不产生径流,地表水和地下水同源于山区,一个流域就是一个以地表水和地下水相互依赖的生态功能单元,其中河流是纽带,连接山区径流形成区与平原径流散失区或消耗区,以水分循环为主体,并与生物、生态系统紧密相联系,构成一个独特而又完整的內陆水分循环体系。自然要素的变化,特别是人类的参与或介入,改变了水分循环的规律,对亚洲中部干旱区水和环境的形成具有很大的威胁。用多年的观测数据来讨论人类活动的影响,并提出维系和保持干旱区水环境的建议。     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

干旱区山地生态格局与可持续发展

我国干旱区以山地-绿洲-荒漠组成的独立的内陆自然体系为重要特征。在这个体系中,山地为绿洲区提供了几乎所有的水资源;山地是干旱区最主要的林业及牧业基地;山地是干旱区绝大部分矿产、旅游资源所在地;山地是干旱区生物多样性、文化多样性集中地。没有山区的生态稳定,就没有干旱区的可持续发展。但是,多年来干旱区山地遭受森林破坏、草地退化、污染等影响,正侵蚀着干旱区可持续发展的根基。特别是干旱区在研究和政策上,重绿洲轻山地,使山区没有受到应有的重视。本文概括出干旱区山地的四种生态格局：基本格局、草原-草甸优势格局、草原-荒漠优势格局及内部湿地中心格局。简要论述了干旱区山地森林稀有资源管理的“奥依塔克模式”、山地保护与发展相协调的“巴音布鲁克模式”、中国西部山地发展的一般模式,并首次提出了中山带发展战略,使干旱区形成绿洲-中山立体双带发展模式。     

Potential responses of vegetation to atmospheric aerosols in arid and semi-arid regions of Asia

Changes in atmospheric aerosols have profound effects on ecosystem productivity, vegetation growth and activity by directly and indirectly influencing climate and environment conditions. However, few studies have focused on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on vegetation growth and activity in the vulnerable arid and semi-arid regions, which are also the source areas of aerosols. Using the datasets of aerosol optical depth(AOD), normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) and multiple climatic variables including photosynthetically active radiation(PAR), surface solar radiation(SSR), surface air temperature(TEM) and total precipitation(PRE), we analyzed the potential responses of vegetation activity to atmospheric aerosols and their associated climatic factors in arid and semi-arid regions of Asia from 2005 to 2015. Our results suggested that areas with decreasing growing-season NDVI were mainly observed in regions with relatively sparse vegetation coverage, while AOD tended to increase as NDVI decreased in these regions. Upon further analysis, we found that aerosols might exert a negative influence on vegetation activity by reducing SSR, PAR and TEM, as well as suppressing PRE in most arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. Moreover, the responses of atmospheric aerosols on vegetation activity varied among different growing stages. At the early growing stage, higher concentration of aerosol was accompanied with suppressed vegetation growth by enhancing cooling effects and reducing SSR and PAR. At the middle growing stage, aerosols tended to alter microphysical properties of clouds with suppressed PRE, thereby restricting vegetation growth. At the late growing stage, aerosols exerted significantly positive influences on vegetation activity by increasing SSR, PAR and TEM in regions with high anthropogenic aerosols. Overall, at different growing stages, aerosols could influence vegetation activity by changing different climatic factors including SSR, PAR, TEM and PRE in arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. This study not only clarifies the impacts of aerosols on vegetation activity in source areas, but also explains the roles of aerosols in climate.     

近40a中国北方降水量与蒸发量变化

利用我国北方1951-1990年年降水量、年蒸发量、年平均风速和太阳辐射等资料,计算了干燥度指数,并据其将我国划分为干旱区(D<0.20),半干旱区(0.20～0.50),湿润区(D>0.50)。近40a我国半干旱区降水量和蒸发量发生了巨大变化,区域差异显著,年代际特征明显。东北区和华北区降水量具有减少趋势,西北东部和西南区有增加趋势。至于蒸发量的变化,东北区具有增加趋势,华北区、西北东部和西南区有减少趋势。近40a我国干旱半干旱区降水量与蒸发量均在减小,但降水量的减小速度大于蒸发量,气候在变干。我国气候的干湿变化主要取决于降水量的变化。     

Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources in the arid Shiyang River Basin of Northwest China

The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources to climate change is difficult to assess. In this study, we used a conceptual hydrologic model to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. We also proposed a framework to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions. We applied this framework to a case study of the Shiyang River Basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in Shiyang River Basin exhibited no significant trends of change from 1956 to 2010. In the past five decades, however, the temperature increased significantly by 0.37°C per decade. According to the sensitivity assessment, a 10% increase in precipitation and a 1°C increase in temperature altered mean annual streamflow by averages of 14.6% and –0.5%, respectively, from 1988 to 2005. In the 2000s, the calculated vulnerability of water resources in Shiyang River Basin was more than 0.95, indicating severe vulnerability. The increase in the amount of precipitation and the implementation of water-saving measures can reduce the vulnerability of water resources in the future; if precipitation increases by 10% per decade and the use of irrigation water decreases by 15% in the 2030s, the evaluated value of water resources vulnerability will be reduced to 0.79. However, the region remains highly vulnerable. The proposed framework for vulnerability assessment can be applied to the arid regions in Northwest China, and the results of our efforts can identify adaptation strategies and improve the management of water resources in such regions.     

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10⁸m³.This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.     

新疆现代绿洲稳定性的尺度条件简析

运用生态经济学理论,研究绿洲稳定性概念指出:绿洲稳定性表现在一定尺度条件下,不同尺度的主要驱动机制不同,稳定性概念也不同;绿洲稳定性的驱动力具有综合性,在大时空尺度下自然驱动力是基础和背景,小时空尺度下人文驱动力是主导;现代绿洲稳定性概念应在绿洲生态经济系统中考察、定义。     

Effects of climate change and human activity on lake shrinkage in Gonghe Basin of northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years

Changes in the status of freshwater resources are a topic of major global,regional and local concern.This is especially so in the arid and semi-arid regions of China,where shortage of water resources plays a crucial role in limiting sustainable socioeconomic development,as well as in sustaining natural ecosystems.Recent climate change,as well as the effects of localized human activity,such as the use of water for irrigation agriculture,may have significant effects on the status of the water resources in the region.Here,we report the results of a study of changes in the areas of lakes in Gonghe Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China,over the last 60 years.The data were acquired from optical satellite images and demonstrate that the total water area of lakes in Gonghe Basin decreased significantly from the 1950 s to 1980 s.The cause is ascribed mainly to human activity including exploitation of farmland,against a background of increasing population;in addition,climatic data for the region demonstrate a minor drying trend during this period as the temperature increased slightly.After the construction of several reservoirs,significant amounts of water were redistributed to promote irrigation agriculture and we conclude that this caused a significant shrinkage of the natural lakes.However,both the area of farmland and the population size remained approximately constant after 1990.We conclude that the variation of the total area of lakes during the second period was mainly controlled by climatic factors(precipitation and temperature).As the regional temperature reached a new high,the area of some of the lakes decreased sharply before finally maintaining a relatively steady state.We emphasize that anthropogenic climate change and human activity have both significantly influenced the status of water resources in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.     

我国北方土地荒漠化成因与草业发展研究

土地荒漠化是当今世界重要的生态环境问题 ,也是脆弱生态系统失去平衡而急需治理的国土整治问题。笔者认为 ,土地荒漠化的发生虽然是自然因素和人类活动共同作用的结果 ,但非可持续性的人类活动是加剧土地荒漠化的主导因素。从分析荒漠化发生的社会经济原因入手 ,阐述发展草业在保护生态与环境、发展西部经济中的重要地位。以此为突破口 ,提出完善软环境体系、创新草业发展机制、加强管理和强化目标责任制对策措施。     

Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate,Iran

Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend, while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series. Meanwhile, time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests. The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones, however, after eliminating the serial correlation factor, this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95% confidence level. The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations. The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semi-arid climatic zones. Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones; furthermore, most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming. Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend; so that, the series which have significant trends are not static. The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues, implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.     

试论我国西北内陆流域生态系统的特征——以塔里木河流域为例

本文从地理学角度阐述了西北内陆流域的生态系统的概念和特征,并对内陆流域生态系统的结构、功能以及动态平衡做了具体的分析和探讨。     

近20年博斯腾湖与岱海水位变化比较分析

岱海和博斯腾湖是分布在我国西部干旱半干旱地区的两个典型湖泊,在过去的几十年中受气候和人类活动影响,湖泊水位都发生了比较显著的变化,但在表现上却很不一样,尤其是80年代中期之后,水位一涨一落。本文从水盐平衡出发,通过对两处湖区气候、人类活动、湖泊水量和盐平衡的分析认为,岱海水位下降主要是流域上人类活动加剧的结果;而博斯腾湖水位上升则主要体现了水文对区域气候变化的响应,尤其是近年干旱区西部暖湿化作用下上游山区降水增加和冰川消融发挥了重要作用。     

我国干旱半干旱地区气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化正在直接或间接地对自然生态系统和人类经济社会产生影响,而干旱、半干旱地区的生态系统非常脆弱,对气候变化异常敏感,通过对我国干旱半干旱地区气候变化及影响研究,认为在近50年我国干旱半干旱地区气温上升了1.8℃、降水增多29mm、地表蒸发加大、径流量减少、水资源供求矛盾加剧;农业结构调整,绿洲灌溉区农作物气候产量提高,雨养旱作区农作物产量减少;部分草原生产力下降,病虫害加剧;沙尘暴总体呈减少趋势,但局部地区由于气温升高,土壤水分耗减加速,风沙活动加剧;农业、航空、建筑、渔业、交通、工业均受到影响。     

Vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change in Central Asia

The plant ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the responses of vegetation dynamics to climate change in Central Asia are still unclear. In this study, we used the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data to analyze the spatial-temporal changes of vegetation and the correlation of vegetation and climatic variables over the period of 1982–2012 in Central Asia by using the empirical orthogonal function and least square methods. The results showed that the annual NDVI in Central Asia experienced a weak increasing trend overall during the study period. Specifically, the annual NDVI showed a significant increasing trend between1982 and 1994, and exhibited a decreasing trend since 1994. The regions where the annual NDVI decreased were mainly distributed in western Central Asia, which may be caused by the decreased precipitation. The NDVI exhibited a larger increasing trend in spring than in the other three seasons. In mountainous areas, the NDVI had a significant increasing trend at the annual and seasonal scales; further, the largest increasing trend of NDVI mainly appeared in the middle mountain belt(1,700–2,650 m asl). The annual NDVI was positively correlated with annual precipitation in Central Asia, and there was a weak negative correlation between annual NDVI and temperature. Moreover, a one-month time lag was found in the response of NDVI to temperature from June to September in Central Asia during 1982–2012.     

亚洲中部干旱区的湖泊

采用系统论的观点,对亚洲中部的干旱区湖泊（包括咸海、巴尔喀什湖、博斯腾湖、艾比湖、玛纳斯湖、艾丁湖与罗布泊等）的水分循环与其他物质循环进行综合研究,其结果不仅丰富了生态循环的理论,而且深刻地揭示了干旱区湖泊与湿润区湖泊截然不同的特征;表现出水分循环的独特性、形态测量学的复杂性、风生湖流的奇特性与泥沙运行的规律性以及内陆湖水化学特征和别具一格的水生态循环系统等。干旱区湖泊作为陆地水圈的组成部分,他是一个完整的生态系统。他由湖泊中的生物和水两大亚系统组成,相互作用而又相互联系。尽管大陆性气候严酷和强烈,风生湖流强劲（有时还多亏他的作用）,蒸发量大,但内陆湖能生存数千年,即在现代时间尺度上是无IL尽的。     

1961-2017年青藏高原东北部雨季降水量变化及其贡献度分析

利用53个气象观测站1961—2017年5—9月逐日降水资料,分析了青藏高原东北部雨季降水量的变化特征,以及不同等级降水变化在降水量增量中的相对贡献。结果表明:1961—2017年青藏高原东北部干旱区雨季降水量呈增加趋势,半干旱区和半湿润区降水量的极端性增强。大部分地区的降水强度普遍增加。进一步分析可知,青藏高原东北部雨季降水量变化主要由降水强度的变化引起,同时中雨等级降水增加贡献大于其他等级降水。半湿润区和半干旱区东部降水极端化趋势明显增强。该结果有助于进一步理解和认识青藏高原东北部生态环境变化的气候效应。     

Rapid loss of leguminous species in the semi-arid grasslands of northern China under climate change and mowing from 1982 to 2011

Effects of mowing on the composition and diversity of grasslands varied with climate change (e.g., precipitation and temperature). However, the interactive effects of long-term mowing and climate change on the diversity and stability of leguminous and non-leguminous species in the semi-arid grasslands are largely unknown. Here, we used in situ monitoring data from 1982 to 2011 to examine the effects of continuous mowing and climate change on the plant biomass and diversity of leguminous and non-leguminous species, and soil total nitrogen in the typical semi-arid grasslands of northern China. Results showed that the biomass and diversity of leguminous species significantly decreased with the increasing in the biomass and diversity of non-leguminous species during the 30-a period. Variations in biomass were mainly affected by the long-term mowing, while variations in diversity were mainly explained by the climate change. Moreover, the normalized change rates of diversity in leguminous species were significantly higher than those in non-leguminous species. Mowing and temperature together contributed to the diversity changes of leguminous species, with mowing accounting for 50.0% and temperature 28.0%. Temporal stability of leguminous species was substantially lower than that of non-leguminous species. Consequently, soil total nitrogen decreased in the 2000s compared with the 1980s. These findings demonstrated that leguminous species were more sensitive to the long-term mowing and climate change than non-leguminous species in the semi-arid grasslands. Thus, reseeding appropriate leguminous plants when mowing in the semi-arid grasslands may be a better strategy to improve nitrogen levels of grassland ecosystems and maintain ecosystem biodiversity.