Projecting Future Crop Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Requirement of Potato in Lower Gangetic Plains of India using the CROPWAT 8.0 Model

A study on evapotranspiration from potato fields was conducted in the Lower Gangetic Plains of India. The input data required for the CROPWAT irrigation management model was collected, and evapotranspiration (ET) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) for potato crops were calculated using the model. Firstly, the CROPWAT model was validated by comparing simulated crop evapotranspiration (SET) with actual ET calculated through the field water balance method. Thereafter, SET and IWR for nine locations in the lower Gangetic plains of India were calculated for the period from 1996–1997 to 2008–2009, for the current situation (using 20-year-average weather data of the stations), and for elevated thermal conditions, i.e. considering 2 and 3 °C increases over the current temperature. The future change in IWR for potato up to 2050 was also calculated considering the projected climatic scenario generated by the PRECIS model. The CROPWAT calculated IWR values showed an increasing, though not statistically significant, trend in requirement of irrigation water for potato across the nine locations during the period from 1996–1997 to 2008–2009. At a temperature increase of 2 °C over normal, the mean SET of potato would increase by 0.06 mm per day and the average IWR would be 6.0 mm per season more. If the mean temperature would be 3 °C more than normal, the SET would be 0.16 mm day^?1 higher and the IWR 16.6 mm. Also based on the projected climatic scenario generated by the PRECIS model, the future SET up to 2050 showed an increasing trend. The present study indicates increasing demand for irrigation water, which may significantly affect the agricultural scenario in the region.     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.

     

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture‐based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by an agro‐meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availability index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963–2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios in terms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013–2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043–2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation in temperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual production under future climate scenarios was predicted to increase by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central‐west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with larger increases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.     

橡胶幼龄林下间作菠萝对水土流失的影响

本实验旨在探讨橡胶幼龄林下间作菠萝对水土流失的影响。采用单因素随机区组设计的方法,测定了顺坡种植菠萝,横坡种植菠萝和不间作(对照)条件下的径流量及土壤侵蚀量。结果表明：西双版纳雨季时,5～10月间,横坡和顺坡种植菠萝径流量均低于不间作菠萝,顺坡种植在6～9月间的径流量都高于横坡种植;6～10月间,顺坡种植和横坡种植菠萝能显著降低林间侵蚀量,横坡种植在6～9月间侵蚀量均低于顺坡种植;径流量、侵蚀量和降雨量的变化趋势基本相同;顺坡和横坡种植的总径流和总侵蚀量均显著减少。说明橡胶幼龄林下横坡种植菠萝可以有效减轻林地水土流失。     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.

     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Multiyear analysis of the dependency of the planting date on rainfall and soil moisture in paddy fields in Cambodia, 2003–2019

The dependencies of the planting date on rainfall and soil moisture in paddy fields in Cambodia were analyzed to quantify farmers’ empirical knowledge regarding their decision of the planting date. Remote sensing data from multiple satellites covering the 2003–2019 period were analyzed. The planting dates in rain-fed paddies ranged from April to August, with large spatial variations and year-to-year fluctuations. In years when planting was suppressed in April and May, planting was extensively enhanced in June and August compared to normal years, and vice versa. Over the northeastern side of Tonle Sap Lake and south of Phnom Penh city, the areas planted in April and May were found to have positive correlations with rainfall and soil moisture, suggesting that wetter-than-average conditions encouraged farmers to plant earlier in the season. In contrast, this relationship was unclear on the western side of Tonle Sap Lake, where the rainfall amounts were larger throughout the year than in other areas in Cambodia. In this region, the relationship between the planting area and soil water availability was either unclear or was even slightly negative from June to August. Since more frequent dry spells have been detected after the onset of the rainy season in recent years, further studies and disseminations of potential changes in dry spells are important for the agronomic adaptation of planting dates under climate change.

     

Suitable climate for rubber trees affected by the South American Leaf Blight (SALB): Example for identification of escape zones in the Colombian middle Magdalena

South American Leaf Blight (SALB), caused by the fungus Pseudocercospora ulei, is the major constraint for rubber tree cultivation in Latin America, continent of origin of the rubber tree. The use of resistant tree cultivars and the identification of escape zones seem to be the best disease control measures. In order to characterize the climate and the pedological parameters in the region of Middle Magdalena, Colombia, we used temperature, relative humidity and annual rainfall records for a 20-year period (1990–2010) from 19 weather stations distributed across the region, together with definitions of the soil units for the area. With the recorded data, we calculated annual and monthly averages of temperature and relative humidity, annual rainfall, annual water balance, annual potential evapotranspiration, number of months with rainfall lower than 50 mm and 100 mm, and number of months with relative humidity lower than 75%. To determine the suitable climate for the rubber crop facing SALB, these results were interpolated through Inverse Distance Weighting with the software ArcGis 9.3 for each variable and their combinations, having as references the plant requirements and the disease escape areas. Regarding the annual rubber tree evapotranspiration requirement, the map showed that the region of Middle Magdalena is suitable for the rubber cultivation. However, La Gloria (Cesar), Regidor (Bolívar) and Gamarra (Cesar) are not suitable for rubber cultivation owing to the high soil hydric deficit (>500 mm). When we considered the rubber tree's requirements, the region was divided into the following types of areas: two unsuitable, two marginal and one suitable. However, considering the disease escape requirements, this region was divided into one unrestricted area and six preferential areas with different restrictions to the SALB control. The most important area of the Middle Magdalena Region is not an escape zone, hence in these areas, the use of highly productive clones resistant to P. ulei is suggested.     

Impact of climate change on paddy field irrigation in southern Taiwan

Climate change can have a serious impact on water resources. The main agricultural product in southern Taiwan is rice, the planting of which consumes far more water than other crops. This makes agriculture in Taiwan especially vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the generalized watershed loading functions (GWLF) hydrological model to simulate the discharge of the Kaoping River under climate change scenarios A2 and B2 as released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discussed the potential impact of climate change on water resources based on the results of GWLF simulations carried out using rainfall and temperature data from five general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results indicate that river discharge in the wet season increases significantly, and decreases in the dry season. The discharge variations from using the various GCMs as inputs fall within the range of ?26 to +15 % for the dry season and ?10 to +82 % for the wet season. The variation in available water will seriously impact the first period rice farming (the period between the beginning of January and the end of May) in southern Taiwan. Consequently, effective reduction in conveyance loss in the irrigation canal systems and proper fallowing of paddy fields will be the main challenges to Taiwan’s agricultural sector for alleviating the impact of climate change. For further decision making, we show the effects of adapting to climate change by various degrees of the following two methods: fallowing paddy fields to various degrees and reducing conveyance loss in irrigation canal systems.     

Evapotranspiration Responses of Plants and Crops to Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Summary

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has risen from about 270 mmol (CO2) mol^?1 (air) (i.e., mole fraction of dry atmospheric air basis) before 1700 to about 370 mmol mol ^?1 currently. General Circulation Models (GCM) have predicted a global temperature rise of 2.8 to 5.2°C for a doubling of CO2. This review examines evapotranspiration and water-use efficiency responses of plants to rising CO2 and climatic changes, especially temperature. Doubling of CO2 will decrease leaf stomatal conductance to water vapor about 40%. However, water use by C3 crop plants under field conditions has usually been decreased only 12% or less for two reasons. Firstly, feedbacks in the energy balance of plant foliage cause leaf temperatures to rise as stomatal conductance is decreased. Increases of leaf temperature raise the vapor pressure of water inside the leaf, which increases the leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference. This increased driving force for transpiration offsets in large part the decreased leaf conductance caused by elevated CO2. Secondly, CO2 enrichment tends to cause leaf area to increase more rapidly in many crops. This increased leaf surface area for transpiration also offsets part of the decreased stomatal conductance per unit leaf area on the whole canopy evapotranspiration, but the energy budget feedbacks are more important.

Experiments point to a yield enhancement of 30 to 35% for C3 crops for the direct effects a doubling of CO2 (without ancillary climate change). If temperature rises, this yield enhancement may be greater for vegetative growth but less for seed grain yield. Experiments on both ambient and elevated CO2 treatments in sunlit growth chambers showed that transpiration rates increased 20% when air temperature was changed from 28 to 33 °C and increased 30% when temperature was increased from 28 to 35 °C. Thus, under well-watered conditions, evapotranspiration will increase about 4 to 5% per 1°C rise in temperature.

Crop model predictions of yields of soybean and maize showed a reduction due to temperature increases by two GCM models. Under Southeastern USA conditions, doubling CO2 in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate change scenario resulted in an 12% increase in yields, but yields decreased 50% in the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate change scenario. Optimum irrigation for both models gave yield increases of about 10%. These model results illustrate the critical requirement of water for production of crops. Under rainfed conditions, crop yields could suffer tremendously if growing season precipitation is decreased, but yields could increase moderately if growing season precipitation is increased. Under the high growing season rainfall scenario (GISS), irrigation requirements for optimum soil water were increased 22%, but under the low rainfall scenario (GFDL), irrigation requirements were increased 111%.

Without the effects of climate change, rising CO2 will cause an increase in crop water-use efficiency (WUE). Most of the increases in WUE will be due to increases in dry matter, with little or no contribution from decreases in water use per unit land area. Growers could produce higher yields per unit land area with higher total production, or maintain the same total production with less land and less total water use. However, if temperatures rise, transpirational water use will increase, and WUE will decline. Higher temperatures, and especially less rainfall, would raise the irrigation requirements of crops. Competition for water resources from other uses could result in less water available for irrigation.     

Simulation study of past climate change effect on chickpea phenology at different sowing dates in Gorgan, Iran

This simulation study was mainly aimed to find the probable difference between sowing dates for response of four chickpea cultivars to past climate change. Firstly, the model CYRUS was recoded in QBASIC programming. Then phenology of cultivars Jam, Hashem, Arman and Beauvanij, seeded at day of year 50, 70 and 90, was evaluated during years 1961 to 2003 in Gorgan, Iran. The changes in some climatic variables were also studied. Results revealed that the solar radiation has been decreased for month December. Although the value of maximum temperature appeared to be the same across years 1961 to 2003 for all months, that of minimum temperature tended to show increasing trend for May and August. The increase in number of days with temperature higher than 35 degrees C was considerable for April and October, but negligible for other months. The warming of night temperature was significant only for May and August. It found about 34 mm per 43 years decrease in monthly rainfall for March. The rate of increase in number of days with rainfall was 0.0737 day per year for December. Nearly similar situation was found for number of days with rainfall lower than and/or equal to 10 mm. The change in number of days with rainfall higher than 10 mm and lower and/or equal to 30 mm was in decreasing manner (March, October and December). The length of time from sowing to emergence appeared to be constant across past years. The advance in flowering (R1) was true only for cultivar Jam seeded at day of year 70. The length of period from R1 to pod initiation (R3) has been diminished for sowing at day of year 70 (Jam and Arman). Only cultivar Hashem seeded at day of year 90 tended to have decreasing trend for length of period between R3 and pod filling. It found one day (per 43 years) decreases from pod yellowing to maturity for cultivar Beauvanij seeded at day of year 70. Based on these findings and on the fact that future climate change is predicted using past changes, it seems that the adaptation strategies for future, including agronomy and/or breeding programs, may be not the same for different sowing dates of chickpea.     

Estimation of evaporation from arid-irrigated region using MODIS satellite imagery

For sustainable development of irrigated agriculture in arid regions, improvement of water use efficiency is essentially required to maintain current production levels and meet food and fiber for population growth in future. To achieve high water use efficiency, a key consideration is to reduce unnecessary soil water loss due to evaporation. In this article, regional daily evaporation over Hetao Irrigation District in a typical arid region during the irrigation period of 2009 was determined by a developed maximum surface temperature model combining Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. The results showed that maximum land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS satellite imagery was relatively higher in the western and middle parts than that of the eastern part of the district. At the same time, the mean minimum LST was shown somewhat higher in the eastern part. Mean daily evaporation was relatively higher in the eastern part, which showed water consuming is higher in the eastern part of the district. During the irrigation period of 2009, the total income water (irrigation water and rainfall) amount is 590.3 mm, and the outcome water (drainage discharge and evaporation) amount is 497.5 mm. The surplus of 92.8 mm in the irrigated season is considered to be consumed in winter season. Throughout the irrigated season, income and outcome almost equals each other. The daily evaporation distribution map could specify particular water consuming areas over the district where high daily evaporation may be occurred.     

黄河下游地区青贮-子粒双季玉米种植模式的热量资源可行性分析

为了解黄河下游地区的热量资源并设计青贮-子粒新型双季玉米种植模式,基于位于黄河下游灌区的中科院禹城综合试验站1961-2020年逐日平均气温资料,对玉米可能生长期日数、初始日序、终止日序、活动积温、有效积温的历史趋势变化特征以及不同熟期青贮-子粒玉米的组合模式进行系统分析和预测,比较青贮-子粒新型双季玉米种植模式与传统双季玉米种植模式。结果表明,禹城地区玉米积温与可能生长期日数在近60年内的年际增加趋势显著。根据可利用热量资源与玉米品种熟期,禹城地区双季玉米适宜的种植模式为早熟青贮-早熟子粒玉米、早熟青贮-中熟子粒玉米和中熟青贮-早熟子粒玉米,夏播子粒玉米的可调整弹性播期有显著增加趋势。     

地膜覆盖栽培甜菜的需水特点

甜菜地膜覆盖栽培从全生育期看需水量并未减少,各生育期的需水规律与裸地栽培相一致,只是叶面蒸腾量与棵间蒸发量比例发生了变化。因此,当无灌溉条件降雨又少时,地膜覆盖甜菜受干旱威胁更大,故在干旱无灌溉地区不宜推广地膜覆盖技术。     

Estimation of supplementary water to paddy fields in the lower Mekong River basin during the dry season

Efficient management of water resources in paddy fields requires an understanding of the volume of supplementary water used. However, quantifying the volume is laborious due to the large amount of data that must be collected and analyzed. The purpose of our study was to estimate the volume of supplementary water used in paddy fields, based on several years of available statistical data, and to provide information on how much water can be supplied to paddy fields in each target area. In this study, the lower Mekong River basin of northeast Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia was selected as the study area. In the first step, we used agricultural statistics for each country, rainfall data acquired from the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS), and the value of virtual water required per unit of rice production. Because several years of data were used for dry season harvested areas and rice production in each country, the supplementary water to paddy fields in each province was calculated using virtual water and rainfall. This method made it possible to estimate changes in supplementary water in each province. Through this study, the supplementary water to paddy fields during the dry season in three countries was approximated from the minimum number of data sets. Moreover, for cases in which it is not possible to procure agricultural water use data for a hydrological model simulation, an alternative solution is proposed.     

Internode Characteristics of Sweet Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) during Dry and Rainy Seasons in Indonesia

Abstract

We have studied establishment of cultivation technique of sweet sorghum for monosodium glutamate (MSG) production on dry land in Indonesia, where the supply of raw materials has become restrictive recently. Previously, we confirmed the feasibility of cultivation in this area during the rainy season. Meanwhile, cultivation during the dry season is also important because vast expanses of heretofore unirrigated fields have remained unused. The stem, which comprises internodes, is the main product of sweet sorghum used as a raw material by fermentation industries. This study analyzes differences in growth and yielding ability between dry and rainy seasons by comparing internode characteristics. A sweet sorghum cultivar – Wray – was cultivated in the rainy season from 1995 and in the dry season of 1996 in Madura Island of East Java, Indonesia. Stems of sweet sorghum cultivated during the dry season were shorter and lighter, with two fewer elongated internodes than those of plants raised during the rainy season. They accumulated sugar slower and to a lower peak, but they were inferred to be harvestable for a relatively long period during 30–60 days after anthesis. Through research of internode characteristics, the difference in stem length was inferred to result from differences in internode numbers (25%) and in individual internode length (75%). The difference in weight seemed to result mainly from the fewer elongated internodes. Further experiments must explore the cultivation period (sowing and ratoon crop), varieties, and planting density to establish a sweet-sorghum cultivation technique that is suitable for the dry season.     

RCP情景下基于AquaCrop模型的河南省夏玉米减产风险评估

本研究基于AquaCrop模型研究rcp4.5和rcp8.5两种代表性浓度路径情景下河南省不同区域未来气候变化下的夏玉米减产风险的变化特征，准确的评估未来气候变化对作物单产的影响，为最大限度的避免作物减产和制定适应性措施提供理论依据。结果表明，在rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下，较历史时期2000～2019年相比，河南省各地区最高温度、最低温度和降雨均呈现出显著波动上升趋势，在空间上气温和降雨增加速率呈现出相反的变化特征。基于AquaCrop模型分别模拟rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下不同区域夏玉米产量损失率，分别为18.3%～42.9%、22.9%～44.8%。产量损失率呈现出明显的空间差异性，其中，豫北-安阳和新乡产量损失率最高，豫南-驻马店产量损失率最低。在rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下，河南省各区域减产风险指数整体上均呈现出增加的趋势，平均减产风险指数分别为0.353(rcp4.5)和0.368(rcp8.5)，减产风险高值区主要位于河南西北部和中部地区，减产风险低值区主要在河南省南部地区。     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.

     

基于格点积温指标的黄淮海冬麦区冬小麦气候生产潜力预估

为宏观了解冬小麦产量及产量稳定度的变化规律,基于1991-2013年黄淮海冬麦区91个有冬小麦种植的农业气象站点的冬小麦发育期及对应年份100个气象站点逐日气象资料,采用格点积温指标划分生育期,通过逐步订正法对冬小麦的气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行估算,之后结合国家气候中心RegCM3模式模拟A1B情景下1951-2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,对未来情景下冬小麦气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行预估。结果表明,从年际变化看,黄淮海冬麦区冬小麦气候生产潜力总体呈现波动下降的趋势,且该波动逐渐趋稳;各时段气候生产潜力基本介于6 277~7 044kg·hm~(-2),除2011-2040年有21.94kg·hm~(-2)·10a~(-1)的上升趋势外,其余时段均呈明显下降趋势。冬小麦气候生产潜力在空间上总体呈北部低、四周高,在时间上主要呈先平稳后逐渐降低的趋势;其变异系数在空间上总体呈北高南低,在时间上呈北部先增后减、南部先减后增的变化趋势。在实际生产过程中应更加注重冬小麦生长发育过程中光、温、水的匹配程度。