Diagnosis approach based on failure mode importance of causality diagram

Causality diagram methodology is a probabilistic reasoning, which can be applied to fault analysis. However, it lacks analysis on the importance of failure mode. The importance of failure mode is introduced to develop causality diagram methodology, which is successfully applied in fault analysis of gas explosion in colliery. The study shows that causality diagram based on importance of failure mode is an effective qualitative and quantitative method to analyse faulty, evaluate system safety and provide feasible countermeasures to prevent accidents.     

Algorithm to Transform Dynamic Causality Diagram Into Belief Network

The Dynamic Causality Diagram methodology is a new probabilistic reasoning model based on Belief Network. To some extent, it is similar to the Belief Network in structure. So that knowledge from one can be transformed into the other on some conditions. To begin with, this paper discusses the similarities and differences between them, and finally presents a transformation algorithm from Dynamic Causality Diagram into Belief Network. The algorithm is composed of two parts: a mapping algorithm of structure and a generating algorithm of conditional probability tables.     

Learning Causality Diagram Structure Based on Genetic Algorithm

The Causality Diagram theory,which adopted graphical expression of knowledge and direct causality intensity of causality,overcomes some shortages in Belief Network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology coped with discrete and continuous variable.But it is difficult that the structure of Causality Diagram given by expert.Because the complexity of causality diagram structure goes up exponentially through the number of the vertex's increasing,it is NP-hard problem to find the most possible structure from a set of data.The authors discuss approaches and present Genetic Algorithm,to find the most possible structure from a set of data.Experiment shows the method is effective.     

Research on Relationship between the Level of Urbanization and the Growth of Real Estate Investment

The population proportion index is usually introduced to measure the level of urbanization, which is an important index to the national economy. The fast development of urbanization would inevitably cause the increase of the investment in real estate industry. Introducing the Granger Test of Causality analytical method, in this paper the relationship between the level of urbanization and the investment in real estate industry from 1986 to 2003 in China is analyzed. It reveals that both of them are on the stage of constant up - rising, and the correlation index of 0. 205 shows that the relationship between them is a mutual promoting causality.     

Disassembly Process Planning of Products Based on Matrix Operation

Based on fuzzy Petri nets, a fuzzy reasoning Petri nets (FRPN) model is defined. And then, combining fuzzy Petri nets with matrix operation, an algorithm of formalized fuzzy reasoning process is proposed. Based on the fuzziness and uncertainness of the knowledge in the disassembly process of products, a decision making model in disassembly process is established. Furthermore, taking realistic disassembly as an example, an algorithm of decision-making in disassembly sequence is discussed. The result shows that the model of decision-making has strong parallel operation ability in the disassembly process sequence. It also can make intelligent decisions based on the product information originating from each disassembly step.     

A cloud computing based SWRL distributed reasoning framework

With the explosion of semantic web technologies, large amounts of OWL ontologies are common place. Conventional rule engines inevitably meet the bottleneck of computing performance and scalability. A cloud computing based SWRL distributed reasoning framework named CloudSWRL is proposed. Based on the Hadoop open-source framework and SWRL semantics, the storage schema for OWL ontologies is designed to implement efficient data retrieving from HBase. Some novel data models for SWRL rules and intermediate data are defined. At last, a MapReduce paradigm based distributed SWRL reasoning algorithm is proposed under DL-safe restriction. An experiment on a simulation environment shows our framework is more efficient and scalable than conventional rule engines when reasoning over large-scale of OWL data.     

A Uncertain Reasoning Machine

This paper firstly discusses some problem about the uncertain reasoning machine in the agricultural expert system based on HPC, such as the knowledge representation, the certainty factor, the representation of evidence uncertainty, the calculation of multi evidence uncertainty, the update of uncertainty and so on. Secondly, the control strategy of this uncertain reasoning machine is discussed. This control strategy adopts a converse reasoning strategy based on target, and it adopts a conflict removing strategy based on certainty factor. The arithmetic to realize the uncertain reasoning machine is also given in detail. At last, this paper stats the example of malnutrition diagnosing of grape as the application of the reasoning machine.     

Foreign Industrial Exports and State Manufacturing Performance

ABSTRACT Foreign exports are claiming growing shares of US. state economic production. While growth of foreign exports is often cited as a driving force for state economic growth, little attention has been paid in prior research to the issue of Granger causality between foreign exports and economic performance at the state level. This study examines Granger causality between foreign manufacturing export growth and state manufacturing performance during the period from 1980 to 1991. Results indicate that, at the aggregate level, there is a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between foreign exports and state manufacturing activity. Among the individual industrial sectors, results are more mixed, however, with sectors displaying either export-led growth, reverse Granger causality, or in some instances, negative Granger causality.     

Optimize graphics reasoning technlogy and its application on sheep diseases curing expert system

Expert system is a program system that prossesses special knowledge and esperience, is reasoning solving process which simulates experts according to special konwledge and espericence with artificial intelligence. This paper discusses the decision-making technology and method of expert system based diagram reasoning, the optimized diagram reasoning is also pointed out. The development technology and method of sheep diseases curing system is expatiated.     

新疆农业信贷与农业总产值的一个协整分析

利用1991—2004年的数据,对新疆农业总产值与农业信贷余额之间的关系做出了实证分析,以便对过去十几年来农业信贷投入的效率做出评价。基于协整分析并利用Granger因果关系检验对新疆农业总产值与农业信贷之间关系进行研究。结果表明,在选取的样本区间内,新疆农业总产值与农业信贷存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系。新疆农业信贷投入对农业总产值有着正向作用,长期弹性达43.96%。Granger因果关系检验表明,农业信贷不是新疆农业总产值的Granger原因,说明农业信贷虽然对新疆农业总产值有正向作用,但还没有成为重要影响因素。     

Knowledge-based ECG Automatic Diagnosis System

This paper presents the structure of a knowledge-based ECG automaticdiagnosis system and the key technologies applied in the system. Using database technology to store, the ECG knowledge-database is constituted of ECG knowledgeand a set of rules .The inference engine of the system simulates the real diagnosis of the experts and combines the forward reasoning with inexact reasoning. At the same time, complicated reasoning is avoided. Because the inference engine is independent of what is stored in the ECG knowledge-database, the system is suitable for expert system.     

The Empirical Study of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in China During the Transformed Period

This paper follows the Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Vector Auto-regression Model to estimate the impacts of monetary channel and bank-lending channel on macro-economy respectively and investigates the different effects of the two channels on the latter using the OLS during the 1994 - 2002 sample period in which the monetary policy was transformed from being directly-controlled to being indirectly-controlled by the central bank in China. The result shows that the monetary channel and the bank-lending channel are both the important channels of Chinese monetary transmission, while the impact of latter on macro-economy is stronger. So the bank-lending channel plays a dominant role in the monetary transmission in China. Policy implications are made in the conclusion.     

渔业贷款对渔业经济发展的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

为了更好的发展我国渔业经济,促进渔业经济健康可持续发展,解决渔业贷款问题是尤为重要的一方面。基于VAR模型,利用2004—2013年间关于渔业贷款及渔业经济的数据,对它们的相关性进行实证分析。Grange因果关系检验的结果表明中国渔业贷款与渔业经济增长之间非因果关系的Grange原因,渔业贷款对渔业经济增长并没有起到供给支持作用。因此,促进渔业贷款的投入以及制定合理化的渔业贷款政策,成为推进中国渔业经济的可持续发展的必然选择。     

Reasoning Method Based on Motorcycle Design

According to the needs of setting up a professional system based on motorcycle design,the CBR(case based reasoning) and RBR(rule based reasoning) methods are introduced.After discussing the difference between the two kinds of reasoning,a method of integrating them into the motorcycle design flow is put forward to realize the design reusable technology and improve the design efficiency,by using the CBR in the step of selecting the similar motorcycle and the RBR in project's modification according to correlative rules.     

PROTOTYPE: A NEW MIXED PATTERN FOR KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION

In this paper, it is pointed out that some kind of mixed pattern for knowledge representation should be needed in CAD systems, and prototype is just one of this kind of pattern, which is most suitable to representing the relative design knowledge.The paper particularly elaborates the notion of prototype and introduces how to represent a design prototype.Operations on prototypes are also demonstrated in order to conceive the reasoning mechanism in a prototype-based design system.     

河南省城市化与碳排放相关性的动态计量分析

基于城市化角度,根据河南省1978—2015 年时间序列数据,利用协整检验、Granger 因果分析以及动态模拟分析,研究省域城市化与碳排放间的动态相关关系。结果表明：河南省城市化水平与碳排放存在高度正向相关,且二者存在长期协整关系,从长期看,城市化水平每增加1%,则碳排放量增加1.52%;其次二者之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系,即城市化水平的提高是引起碳排放增加的原因,但碳排放却不是引起城市化提高的因素;最后,通过动态模拟分析,河南省城市化对碳排放的影响具有正向冲击效应且有一定的滞后性,但随着城市化的发展其影响上升到一定程度后趋于平缓,并起到一定的抑制增长作用。在未来河南省城市化的长期建设中要推动其对节能减排的引擎作用,建设低碳绿色城市。     

北京市批发市场蔬菜价格引导关系研究

依据蔬菜品种之间的相互引导关系开展市场调控或预警,是农产品市场预警的一种有效方式。基于北京市批发市场数据,研究黄瓜、番茄、圆白菜、土豆、茄子、小白菜、菜花、小辣椒、西葫芦等9种价格变化相关性较高的蔬菜在市场运行中的相互引导关系。建立VAR（向量自回归模型）模型,采用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行分析论证。结果表明,9种蔬菜价格之间至少存在单向的Granger因果关系;黄瓜、小白菜、西葫芦价格变化的冲击能够引起其他品种价格较为明显的响应;在不考虑自身贡献率的情况下,黄瓜价格变化对其他品种价格的贡献率是最高的,能够在较长一段时间内影响其他品种价格的变化,其中对茄子、小辣椒、土豆、西葫芦价格的贡献率最高均超过40%,西葫芦价格对茄子、土豆、小辣椒价格也有较高的贡献率,最高分别达到22%、19.83%和16.17%。     

EPC contract dispute alert and case analysis

When the EPC contract dispute occurs, complex relationship is usually involved, contract claim amount is large, and the consequence of hindering a contract is serious. Therefore, in order to prevent, warn and track disputes, based on some information with strong signs showing disputes, this study establishes a case based reasoning and rule based reasoning (CBR+RBR) model with qualitative and quantitative integration by synthetically using reasoning theory, rough set theory, the entropy method and Euclidean distance retrieval method to prevent and warn possible disputes and realize real-time tracking. By collecting related cases and establishing case databases, we use the CBR+RBR model to analyze various factors may cause EPC contract disputes, and through case analysis to validate that the model can warn EPC contract disputes.     

兰州-白银经济区高新技术产业集聚与区域经济增长关系的实证分析

以兰州-白银经济区的高新技术产业为研究对象,依据2000—2011年的时间序列数据,采用区位熵指数对高新技术产业的集聚水平进行测度,并在此基础上,对高新技术产业的集聚与经济增长的关系进行协整及格兰杰因果检验,进而构造VAR模型并得到脉冲响应函数。实证结果表明：兰白经济区的高新技术产业已经形成了集聚且集聚度呈稳定增长的趋势,同时,高新技术产业的集聚与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系。最后分析得出兰白经济区的高新技术产业集聚是一种政府主导型的集聚模式,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Study on the Price-estimation of the Land-rental with Case-based Reasoning System

In this paper the theory of Fuzzy Mathematics is used to set up the case-based reasoning(CBR) mathematic model system on the price-estimation of the land-rental and the related process and conditions of its application are suggested.The calculation example of CBR in land business demonstrates that the CBR model is effective;it can be used as the reference for the decision-making on estimating the price in land business.