Approximate reasoning algorithm based on the causality diagram

The Causality Diagram, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct causal intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in Belief Network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology coped with discrete and continuous variable. But the Causality Diagram's reasoning calculation is a NP problem. It is inconvenient its popularize and application. This paper presents an approximate reasoning algorithm, and it cuts down the Causality Diagram's steps and harsh condition, it makes the complexity of the algorithm the same order of the joint events. A reasoing example justifies our algorithm.     

Algorithm to Transform Dynamic Causality Diagram Into Belief Network

The Dynamic Causality Diagram methodology is a new probabilistic reasoning model based on Belief Network. To some extent, it is similar to the Belief Network in structure. So that knowledge from one can be transformed into the other on some conditions. To begin with, this paper discusses the similarities and differences between them, and finally presents a transformation algorithm from Dynamic Causality Diagram into Belief Network. The algorithm is composed of two parts: a mapping algorithm of structure and a generating algorithm of conditional probability tables.     

Diagnosis approach based on failure mode importance of causality diagram

Causality diagram methodology is a probabilistic reasoning, which can be applied to fault analysis. However, it lacks analysis on the importance of failure mode. The importance of failure mode is introduced to develop causality diagram methodology, which is successfully applied in fault analysis of gas explosion in colliery. The study shows that causality diagram based on importance of failure mode is an effective qualitative and quantitative method to analyse faulty, evaluate system safety and provide feasible countermeasures to prevent accidents.     

水稻W模型施肥法应用效果初报

通过水稻本田期主要生育期与产量构成因素的关系建立W模型图，同时利用相应的W模型施肥方法与当地的常规施肥方法进行小区比较试验，研究不同施肥方法对水稻的增产作用。结果表明，水稻W模型施肥方法比常规施肥方法能有效地提高成穗率和结实率，增加每穗结实粒数，从而达到增加水稻产量，为推广应用水稻W模型高产施肥法提供科学依据。     

基于信息熵和协整理论的新疆土地利用时空动态分析

土地利用结构信息熵可以综合反映某区域在一定时段内各种土地利用类型的动态变化及其转换程度,对于具体区域的土地利用结构调整、优化利用土地具有一定的指导意义。土地利用动态变化研究是全球性的课题,土地利用结构变化是土地利用动态变化的结果,笔者应用信息熵理论和协整理论及Granger因果检验,探究新疆土地利用时空动态变化。结果表明：①土地利用结构信息熵反映了新疆土地利用的时空情况,其信息熵随着时间的推移缓慢上升,其变化幅度较小,总体上土地利用结构趋于稳定,但南北疆土地利用差异明显;②土地利用变化与经济发展密切相关。土地利用结构与经济发展是非平稳的时间序列,经济发展与土地利用结构之间存在协整关系,经济发展是土地利用变化的单向Granger原因。新疆经济发展是土地利用结构及类型变化的主要原因,其特殊的自然生态环境,应在保护生态环境的前提下,统筹安排各业各类用地,协调好经济发展与土地利用之间的关系。因此,必须对该区域的土地利用结构进行调整与优化,以维护区域系统的稳定。     

Research on Relationship between the Level of Urbanization and the Growth of Real Estate Investment

The population proportion index is usually introduced to measure the level of urbanization, which is an important index to the national economy. The fast development of urbanization would inevitably cause the increase of the investment in real estate industry. Introducing the Granger Test of Causality analytical method, in this paper the relationship between the level of urbanization and the investment in real estate industry from 1986 to 2003 in China is analyzed. It reveals that both of them are on the stage of constant up - rising, and the correlation index of 0. 205 shows that the relationship between them is a mutual promoting causality.     

河南省城市化与碳排放相关性的动态计量分析

基于城市化角度,根据河南省1978—2015 年时间序列数据,利用协整检验、Granger 因果分析以及动态模拟分析,研究省域城市化与碳排放间的动态相关关系。结果表明：河南省城市化水平与碳排放存在高度正向相关,且二者存在长期协整关系,从长期看,城市化水平每增加1%,则碳排放量增加1.52%;其次二者之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系,即城市化水平的提高是引起碳排放增加的原因,但碳排放却不是引起城市化提高的因素;最后,通过动态模拟分析,河南省城市化对碳排放的影响具有正向冲击效应且有一定的滞后性,但随着城市化的发展其影响上升到一定程度后趋于平缓,并起到一定的抑制增长作用。在未来河南省城市化的长期建设中要推动其对节能减排的引擎作用,建设低碳绿色城市。     

中国非正规金融对农村经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

以中国非正规金融与农村经济增长的关系为着手点,基于VAR模型,并且利用2004—2013年间关于农村非正规金融发展规模以及农村经济发展的相关数据,对它们的相关性进行实证分析。通过Grange因果关系检验表明,中国非正规金融与农村经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。非正规金融对农村经济增长起着促进作用,同时也存在发展空间不足、缺乏规范、政策支持不够等问题,在此基础上提出增加非正规金融法律与制度保障、加强非正规金融的内部控制、加大非正规金融的政策支持力度以及吸收国外非正规金融发展经验等建议。     

基于Voronoi图、GIS的三峡库区农村居民点空间机理研究

利用GIS分析技术、Voronoi图Cv值综合分析,探讨重庆市忠县农村居民点的空间机理,找出其分布的趋势性和规律性,为县、镇级土地规划和土地整治提供直观指导。根据聚落地理学的研究方法,建立Voronoi图、高程、坡度、坡向、道路、水系因子,通过空间分析法和定性定量分析法相结合的方法进行研究。结果表明忠县整体Cv值为85.52%,为集群分布,农村居民点在高程上主要分布在400~700 m;在7°—15°内分布最多,达到32.50%;在坡向影响下西北坡分布最多,达到14.95%;在道路因子下,农村居民点在50~100 m缓冲区内密度最高,达到64.38个/km2;农村居民点主要靠近在距离水源100~200 m。     

基于空间技术的农用地质量等别与经济耦合性研究

为了进一步丰富资源环境与经济社会发展相关性的研究,探讨农用地质量等别与经济的关联特点和耦合机制,按照农用地分等定级的基本思想与方法,测算各监测控制点的农用地自然等别、利用等别和经济等别,以镇为单位,以面积为权重,聚类监控点的自然等别、利用等别和经济等别。运用空间自相关方法,分析Moran散点图,研究农用地等别之间的关系,探讨农用地质量等别与经济耦合性。结果表明,农用地质量等别在空间上无序,而利用等别与经济等别较高的农用地主要分布在平原的水田,农用地利用等别与经济等别在空间分布上较吻合,经济耦合性强。通过聚类分析和空间技术模型,可以确定经济发展水平与耕地质量等别的空间耦合关系。     

江苏省耕地变化与经济发展关系的实证研究

研究利用Eviews 8.0 软件，采用Chow检验、ADF检验、协整分析、AIC准则以及Granger 因果关系检验等计量经济方法，旨在分析1978—2009 年间江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间的关系，并对江苏省耕地变化与经济发展关系的阶段性特征做出总结。结果表明：自1978 年以来，江苏省耕地面积与经济发展大致经历了2 个阶段：第一阶段(1978—1991)是互为因果关系，在该阶段内江苏省经济增长主要以耕地的牺牲为代价。第二阶段(1992—2009)是单向因果关系，在该阶段内耕地资源数量减少为经济发展提供了土地保障的作用，但经济增长并不是耕地资源数量变化的原因。从1978—2009 这一长期阶段来看，江苏省在这一时间段内经济增长与耕地变化存在单向因果关系，即耕地面积数量变化对经济的发展产生了积极的影响，但经济发展并不是耕地面积减少的原因。通过对江苏省1978—2009 年各阶段耕地变化与经济发展之间的关系进行探究，对如何处理耕地面积减少与经济发展之间的关系提出建议，这对今后经济发展与耕地变化相关问题的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Charter school proliferation and school district fiscal stress,a chicken-egg problem

Charter schools have become one of the most popular school choice programs in recent years. While being accused of endangering the fiscal health of local school districts, charter school proliferation could also be the result of fiscal stress of local school districts. However, this reverse causation has not been fully studied in the literature. Using data of local school districts in Ohio from 2011 to 2019, I adopt an Instrumental Variable approach to investigate the possible scenario that the rapid growth in charter school enrollment could be caused by fiscal stress of school districts. The results suggest that the inadequate funding from state and local sources had led to a significant increase in charter school enrollment for urban districts, although the charter demand is inelastic to public funding changes. Students could be left with no better options but to choose charter schools over failing traditional public schools.     

兰州-白银经济区高新技术产业集聚与区域经济增长关系的实证分析

以兰州-白银经济区的高新技术产业为研究对象,依据2000—2011年的时间序列数据,采用区位熵指数对高新技术产业的集聚水平进行测度,并在此基础上,对高新技术产业的集聚与经济增长的关系进行协整及格兰杰因果检验,进而构造VAR模型并得到脉冲响应函数。实证结果表明：兰白经济区的高新技术产业已经形成了集聚且集聚度呈稳定增长的趋势,同时,高新技术产业的集聚与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系。最后分析得出兰白经济区的高新技术产业集聚是一种政府主导型的集聚模式,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Method for Calculating the Activities of Compounds from Binary Phase Diagram Involved Stable Compounds

In binary phase diagram there are many stable compounds. Hereby a new method for calculating activities of compounds from binary phase diagram involved stable compounds is presented. Based on the available formula for calculating activities in binary phase diagram, the activities of the two pure components are gained. And the balance constant K~0 can be obtained from mass action law. Thereby, the activities of stable compounds are obtained from the activities of the two pure components. By using this method, the activities of stable compounds in In-Sb system are obtained. It proves that this method is feasible.     

Short-and Long-Term Effects of the Construction Industry on the Economy Growth

The construction industry could be developed as a pillar industry of the national economy,since it has a strong pulling role in economic growth.However,little definite empirical evidence supports this argument.Using co-integration and Granger causality tests and error-correction model with taking Sichuan for an example,this article studies both short-term and long-term effects of the construction industry on the economy growth.Empirical tests show that in the long term the economy maintained equilibrium relations with the construction industry.A growth in the construction industry will lead to the economic growth;however the pulling role of the construction industry on the economy is limited.A growth in the construction industry will not predict economic growth in the short run.Thus,for Sichuan case the government is unable to stimulate the economy by focusing on development of the construction industry in the short run.Instead,in order to promote long-term development of the national economy it could implement stable and healthy development policies for the construction industry.     

Analysis of China’s Daylighting Climate with P G D Diagram

In order to improve the deficiency of existing daylighting climate zones and investigate the characteristics of the typical daylighting climate zones, the ratio between direct light ,diffuse light , global illumiance and extraterrestrial horizontal illumiance were taken as parameters. On the basis of annual observation data of twelve typical light climates zone, daylighting climate of various regions was investigated by P G D diagram. This method could more intuitively and accurately reflect the characteristics of regions and be easier for comparing the difference between light parameters .Through analysis, the daylight distribution profile of twelve zones were obtained, with which it could be reference for daylighting design.     

养分平衡法配方施肥数据库建模

【研究目的】养分平衡法是一种重要的配方施肥方法,在进行施肥决策时,需要依赖大量的施肥参数进行计算,所以建立数据库对施肥参数进行有效地管理是一项非常重要的工作。【结果】笔者给出了养分平衡法简洁的计算公式,采用实体-关系建模的方法确定了8个实体对象和12个关系对象,并绘制了完整的实体-关系图。【结论】本文的分析对于其他配方施肥方法的参数管理同样具有参考意义。     

金昌市城市化与就业结构演变的计量分析

基于金昌市1981-2015年的经济统计数据,通过OLS回归模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法定量与定性分析金昌市的城市化水平与就业结构的关系,结果表明：1)城市化进程与三次产业就业结构的演变具有阶段性：初步发展阶段、波动探索阶段、快速发展阶段;2)金昌市的城市化水平与第三产业就业结构呈现正向的脉冲关系,与第二产业就业为负向脉冲关系,与第一产业就业为负向脉冲关系;3)金昌市的城市化水平处于快速发展阶段,就业结构以二、三产业为主。     

The Analysis of Interrelations Between Regional Economic Growth and Savings

The interrelations between the regional economic growth and savings are analyzed by using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test based on error correction model. The results show that the economic growing is one of the main factors that raise the amount of saving but don't increase the saving growth rate in all three regions. Also the increase of saving could result in the eastern and weatern region's economic growth to some extent, but it does't affect the central region's economic growth. Therefore, some actions which drive the economic growth have to be taken in order to raise the saving, and the increase of the saving scale have to be controled to improve the regional economic growth.     

The Calculation of Section of Al2O3-CaO-SiO2 System and Its Verification

The basic phase is selected according to the measured phase diagram, two isothermal sections and two vertical sections of the Al 2O 3-CaO-SiO 2 ternary system are calculated using FACT software. The sections in the same conditions are described through the measured phase diagram. Because of the complexity of this ternary system, there is a large difference between the measured and the calculated phase diagram. It is necessary for FACT to ameliorate the calculation model and perfect the database in calculating oxide system which the interaction is strong. For this kind system, the isothermal section and vertical section should be founded through the experiment result and referencing the calculated phase diagram at the same time.