珍稀濒危树种长序榆潜在适生区及其动态变化预测

基于MaxEnt模型,对珍稀濒危树种长序榆(Ulmus elongata)当前时期以及未来2040年SSPs126和SSPs585两种情境下的适生区进行了预测,并比较了两个时期的适生区变化.结果显示:1)AUC平均值为0.988,MaxEnt模型能很好地预测长序榆的潜在适生区;2)影响长序榆分布的环境因子主要为最冷季度降水量(55.5％)、最干季度降水量(18.5％)、海拔(16.5％)、温度季节变化(2.2％)、年平均温度(1.6％);3)长序榆当前时期主要分布在浙江省西南部以及江西、安徽、福建三省交界的区域;4)2040年,长序榆的适生区面积可能缩减,且高适生等级区域面积大幅降低.因此,加强对现有长序榆养护和管理的同时,建议在所预测的适生区内开展长序榆专项调查,并适当进行引种繁育试验.     

MaxEnt模型综合应用研究进展分析

指出了最大熵模型(MaxEnt)是以生态位理论为根基广泛应用于各个研究领域受到学者们的青睐和高度认可,为实验者的探究打开崭新的一面,介绍了Maxent模型的基本原理并对物种潜在分布的生境适宜性评价、濒危动植物保护、物种入侵、病虫害防治、在气候变化下药用植物的潜在适生区分布等领域阐述MaxEnt模型应用,对加强物种的保护与管理提供科学依据。     

基于MaxEnt的小飞蓬在中国的潜在适生区预测

小飞蓬(Conyza canadensis(L.)Cronquist)是我国分布最广的入侵植物之一。根据文献搜集和生物信息数据库,获得有效数据共325个,结合ArcGIS与SPSS相关性分析筛选获得8个气象因子,基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测了小飞蓬的潜在适生区。结果表明:基于MaxEnt模型预测小飞蓬在中国的潜在适生区ROC曲线,AUC平均值为0.971,预测结果极好;通过刀切法(jackknife method)分析表明,最热季度的降水量(BIO_18)、温度季节性变化标准差(BIO_4)、年平均气温(BIO_1)、最冷季度的降水量(BIO_19)4个气象因子对小飞蓬的分布影响最大;小飞蓬在中国的潜在适生区分布广泛,秦岭淮河以南的各个省份以及秦岭淮河以北至辽宁省南部均为小飞蓬高适生区范围。随着气候变化,2050年小飞蓬潜在适生区面积与当前相比增加了559 016.09km2,2070年小飞蓬潜在适生区面积与当前相比增加了68 423.65km2。本研究结果实现对小飞蓬入侵动态预警,为进一步防范工作提供了一定的理论基础。     

珍稀植物楠木的地理分布及潜在分布区的预测

以植物地理分布与气候变化间的关系为研究基础,通过MaxEnt模型,应用贡献率、置换重要值以及Jackknife检验、主成分分析,模拟研究影响楠木Phoebe zhennan地理分布的主要因子,分析楠木在当前的地理分布格局,并预测未来楠木在中国的潜在分布格局。结果表明,采用MaxEnt模型预测其潜在适宜分布区准确度极高,楠木在ROC曲线下的AUC值达0.995;当前(2019)适生区预测表明,四川东南部、重庆和贵州是其分布最集中的地方,其次云南、广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西、湖北也有零散分布;随着未来(2050年)气温与降雨量的变化,江苏将有较大范围适合楠木分布,但是总的适生区面积比当前减少,例如贵州西南部的适生区面积将变小,福建、江西中度适生分布面积将变大,其余地区的适生区和当前持平。本研究结果表明,影响楠木分布的主要气候因子是温度和降雨量,可为楠木资源的科学保护和合理利用提供理论依据。     

基于MaxEnt模型的毛红椿适生区预测

[目的]了解环境因子对毛红椿适生区分布的影响,为其资源保护、引种及其人工林的发展提供参考。[方法]基于MaxEnt模型能利用现存不完整、小样本、离散型分布数据构建物种适生区预测模型,用受试者工作曲线线下面积(AUC)检验预测模型的精度,面积越大精度越高等优点,本研究应用毛红椿在云南的分布数据及1个地型因子和6个气候因子,来构建其适生区分布模型。[结果]毛红椿适生区分布MaxEnt模型平均训练AUC和平均测试AUC分别为0.891、0.885,说明对毛红椿适生区的预测是可靠的;降水量变异系数和最干季度降水量是决定毛红椿适生区分布的主要因子,年均气温变化范围、最冷季度平均气温、最湿季度降水量、最冷季度降水量是次要因子。在当代和未来(2050S、2070S)气候变暖条件下(RCP2.6情景),云南省和全国适生区面积计算结果直观、定量的反应了全球变暖对毛红椿适生区变迁的影响。[结论]预测云南省及全国的毛红椿适生区随全球变暖而小幅萎缩。     

基于MaxEnt和GIS的云南秃杉潜在分布区预测

为保护云南秃杉种源区以及为规划秃杉人工栽培提供可靠依据,应用Max Ent模型预测国家一级保护物种秃杉的潜在分布区。研究过程中收集了241个秃杉自然分布点和26个环境因子,预测准确性高和结果可信度强。结果表明,秃杉在云南省的潜在适生区面积为232 013 km~2,占国土总面积的48.6%。其中,高适生区主要分布于怒江州、保山市及德宏州,中适生区主要分布于文山州、红河州、临沧市、普洱市,低适生区主要分布于昆明市、曲靖市、昭通市。秃杉现有自然分布区都位于高适生区,中适生区虽然没有自然分布的秃杉林,但适合秃杉生长,是较好的秃杉人工引种区。     

基于Max Ent模型的北京浅山区珍稀植物适生区预测及管理

对北京浅山区珍稀植物分布生境进行研究可以掌握生境动态并使珍稀植物保护更具效率。文章利用最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)与地理信息系统(Arc GIS),结合108个珍稀植物分布数据、经相关性筛选后的各项气候因子及7个与珍稀植物生存相关性强的环境因子,对珍稀植物潜在分布和适宜等级作出预测,并据此构想相关管理策略。研究结果表明:1) Maxent模型对珍稀植物在北京浅山区潜在分布区的预测效果较好,接近非常好的水平,地表起伏度、bio4、水(分)等因子对预测结果贡献率最大; 2)预测适生区集中分布在十渡、石花洞、九龙山、蟒山、唐指山、四座楼等区域,在此基础上,以“最适生区”和“较适生区”为重点关注对象,对于不同地区选择了不同的保护策略。     

基于MaxEnt预测梭梭和白梭梭在新疆的潜在适生区

梭梭和白梭梭是荒漠区特有的植物种,研究两者的潜在适生区,对于梭梭和白梭梭在新疆的引种栽培以及治理风沙具有重要意义。采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测梭梭和白梭梭在新疆的潜在适生区。结果表明:梭梭和白梭梭在新疆的潜在适生区主要位于北疆地区,包括阿勒泰、昌吉回族自治州、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、塔城和克拉玛依的大部分地区,其中梭梭较白梭梭分布范围更广些;采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线验证模型精确度,AUC值均在0.900以上,表明模型预测的准确性较高;温度季节性变异系数、等温性、海拔和最干季度降水量是影响梭梭分布的主要环境因子,年均温、海拔、最冷季度降水量和坡度是影响白梭梭分布的主要环境因子。     

油茶象的潜在分布区预测

利用油茶象的分布点数据和环境因子数据,通过MaxEnt生态位模型预测油茶象在中国的潜在分布区域。结果表明:油茶象的潜在分布区主要集中于我国南方省份;在ArcGIS中进行显示与风险等级划分,按栅格数值的大小将油茶象的适生范围分为4级,分级标准为:高适生区、中适生区、低适生区、非适生区,经ROC曲线分析法验证,MaxEnt生态位模型的AUC值为0.979(非常接近1),表明预测获得了较好的效果。     

基于Maxent和ArcGIS的赤皮青冈在中国的潜在适生区预测

【目的】赤皮青冈是我国珍贵用材树种,大尺度预测和模拟赤皮青冈当前潜在分布区,并评估其适生范围,对赤皮青冈在中国未来不同时期的适生区进行模拟,得到未来不同气候情境下的适生区分布及其动态变化预测,为赤皮青冈的中长期造林规划提供指导。【方法】基于赤皮青冈的81条分布信息和7个环境因子,在MaxEnt模型基础上,使用R语言对其进行优化,同时利用ArcGIS软件对影响赤皮青冈分布的环境因子进行分析,探究影响赤皮青冈自然分布的主要环境因子,并预测赤皮青冈在中国不同时期下的适生区分布范围与面积。【结果】1）赤皮青冈当前适生区模型的平均AUC值为0.89,模型预测结果良好;2）赤皮青冈的适生区主要受最干月降水量、年平均降水量、温度年较差以及最冷季度平均温度影响;3）当前时期赤皮青冈的潜在适生区主要分布于我国贵州、四川、湖南、江西和台湾等地,其中高适生区占比最高的是湖南省;4）在未来2个时期4种升温情境下,赤皮青冈的分布区面积均有不同程度的扩增,且整体有向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。【结论】赤皮青冈的分布主要受水热条件所影响,尤其对水分要求较高;其当前及未来时期在我国的适生区面积均较高。可尽量在模型预测的中高...     

Conservation status evaluation of Berberis species across the Karakoram Mountain Ranges,Pakistan using IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria

Berberis species are endangered, high-value medicinal plants in Pakistan with important eco-cultural,commercial and livelihood roles in mountain communities.To assess the geographical distribution of Berberis species across the Karakoram Mountain Ranges in Pakistan, we used IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria(2001) to calculate the extent of occurrence(EOO, 100 km~2) and the area of occupancy(AOO,10 km~2) of Berberis pseudumbellata subsp. pseudumbellata and B. pseudumbellata subsp.gilgitica. Overgrazing and habitat loss were key populationlimiting factors. The two subspecies had contrasting responses to temperature, elevation, precipitation and insect susceptibility. B. pseudumbellata subsp. gilgitica is endemic to Gilgit-Baltistan and grows in single-cropping zone(areas 200 m a.s.l.). Status evaluation revealed that both subspecies meet the criteria set for critically endangered species. Prolonged disregard of its declining population trend might lead to its extinction; therefore, integrated conservation efforts are necessary.     

基于Maxent模型的丹霞山国家级自然保护区极小种群植物丹霞梧桐的潜在生境评价

【目的】基于Maxent模型评价丹霞梧桐的潜在生境,为该种的就地保护和迁地保护提供科学依据。【方法】采用无人机获取丹霞梧桐黄叶期186个空间分布数据,结合6个环境变量,利用Maxent模型预测丹霞梧桐的潜在适生区,并分析主要环境变量对其分布的影响。【结果】Maxent模型评价效果达到优秀水平,训练集和验证集的AUC值分别为0.947和0.906;刀切法验证结果表明,高程、坡度和坡向是影响丹霞梧桐潜在分布的主要环境变量,其贡献率分别为51.2%、30.3%和7.8%;在3个主要环境变量的共同作用下,丹霞梧桐的潜在适生区主要分布在丹霞山高程150~530m、坡度20°~60°的阳坡;以自然断点法将丹霞梧桐的潜在适生区分为高适生区、中适生区、低适生区和非适生区4个等级,高、中适生区面积为30.27km^2,仅占丹霞山总面积的10.41%;低适生区面积为41.01km^2,非适生区面积为219.5km^2,共占丹霞山总面积的89.59%;野外实地调查数据验证结果表明,92.1%的丹霞梧桐实地分布点落入高、中适生区,Kappa系数为0.958,说明Maxent模型的预测精度较高。【结论】Maxent模型可较准确预测出丹霞梧桐在丹霞山的潜在适生区,并揭示影响其分布的3个主要环境变量,该模型对小尺度区域预测亦有较好效果。对丹霞梧桐保护提出2点建议:1)就地保护方面,要严格限制其高、中适生区的旅游设施建设,并建立长期的无人机遥感监测系统跟踪其种群动态变化;2)迁地保护方面,根据其适生条件,选择适合区域开展野外回归试验扩大其种群分布。本研究结果可验证低空无人机遥感在物种识别和种群调查中的优势和可行性,并揭示该方法在丹霞地貌这种特殊生境监测与评价中的潜力和应用价值。     

Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened tree Abies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topographic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habitat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the temperature variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that differences in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km²) of the study area is highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84 km²) being moderately suitable. Under different global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suitable habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing altogether by 2099. Our findings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas (1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography offers the microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endangered species under climate change, and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation, restoration, and management.

     

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Potential shifts in suitable habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations.     

Post-fire habitat restoration of sables during winter season in northern slope of the Great Xing＇an Mountains

Habitat loss and fragmentation have been associated with the decline of endangered species. In 1987, a catastrophic fire in the northern Great Hing＇an Mountains of China, where the main habitat of sables （Martes zibellina） is located, aggravated the loss and fragmentation of the forest landscape. Due to restricted distribution and low population density, sables were listed in the national first-grade protected species in China. The objective of this paper was to identify to what extent the habitat of sables had been restored 13 years after the fire. Based on the behavioral data, which came from field survey information by radio-tracking, GPS （Global Positioning System） and forest inventory data, suitability habitat maps were derived using the Ecological Niche Suitability Model （ENSM）. In addition, the habitat structure was analyzed with selected landscape indices. Although forest cover mostly had been restored by 2000, the results indicated that, compared to the pre-fire situation, the areas of suitable habitat had been reduced significantly, especially those of less suitable, marginally suitable and moderately suitable designation. Fragmentation was aggravated, and suitable patches were found to be further isolated with the exception of those in most suitable areas. The ratio of the patch perimeter to area in unsuitable, moderately suitable and suitable areas decreased, while the ratios within other suitability types increased. Moreover, the percentage of soft boundaries decreased slightly, which can influence the redistribution of sables. The results above indicated that the suitable habitat had deteriorated, and the restoration of the sables＇ habitat remained to be done.     

基于WEB数据库和Maxent模型的白头叶猴潜在生境评价研究

白头叶猴是中国广西特有分布种,属我国一级保护动物,其空间分布及其生态环境因子知识,是制定白头叶猴保护和发展规划前提。以2007—2008年中国广西白头叶猴93个痕迹点数据和开放式生态环境WEB数据库的63个环境变量为主要信息源,采用最大熵法(Maxent)生态位模型,进行白头叶猴潜在生境预测。在此基础上,采用专家经验法对预测结果进行重分类,并与植被斑块信息、距离道路及居民点距离、历史分布资料进行叠加分析。研究结果表明:太阳辐射、最湿季节降水量、月平均昼夜温差、距离水源距离、最冷月最低温和土壤酸碱度是影响白头叶猴空间分布的主要生态环境因子;白头叶猴最适宜区、适宜区、不宜区面积分别为112.60km2,78.92km2,17 056.13 km2;白头叶猴的分布面积(最适宜区、适宜区)分别比20世纪60年代、80年代、90年代下降了65%,50%,9.5%。为保护白头叶猴免于灭绝,应当加强动物保护的宣传教育、加强对白头叶猴的科学研究和保护、实施生态移民和建立生态园。     

General principles in the community ecology of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Introduction

Knowledge of the factors that determine ectomycorrhizal fungal community structure is essential in many areas of practical significance including conservation, habitat restoration, prevention or amelioration of species invasions, and the prediction of responses to climate change. With respect to these goals, however, community ecology, in general, and ectomycorrhizal fungal community ecology, in particular, have been rather disappointing.

Discussion

Indeed, some feel that community ecology is, at best, an esoteric discipline and, at worst, an inane one. But there is hope. As we apply what has been learned about other organisms concerning the relationships between functional traits and success (abundance), it may be possible to elucidate general principles that govern much of the structuring of ectomycorrhizal fungal communities.

Conclusion

A hierarchical model of ectomycorrhizal fungal community structure is presented that involves abiotic filtering of immigrant propagules based on functional traits, followed by interspecific competition as ameliorated by disturbance and habitat partitioning, the outcomes of which are dependent on functional traits.     

MAXENT模型在秦岭川金丝猴生境评价中的应用

川金丝猴是我国特有的濒危物种,秦岭山系是其分布区之一。本文在生境模型MAXENT的支持下,利用物种痕迹点、自然环境及人类干扰空间数据,评价秦岭山系川金丝猴的生境适宜性。结果表明：川金丝猴偏好在远离人类活动干扰,海拔1300m以上,靠近河流的山地森林中活动。川金丝猴生境主要分布在秦岭的中西部地区,面积达8853．8km^2,占秦岭山系总面积的15．3％。现有保护区保护了31．6％的川金丝猴生境,为更有效保护秦岭川金丝猴及其生境,有必要新建或扩建保护区,使生境集中分布区得到有效保护,同时提高生境之间的连通性,促进金丝猴种群的交流与迁徙。     

Predicting suitable habitats of endangered Juniperus procera tree under climate change in Northern Ethiopia

Juniperus procera is the most preferred tree in Ethiopia. It is an endangered tree species enumerated in IUCN red list. Accordingly, this study investigates the future suitable habitat of the J. procera under climate change in northern Ethiopia. Three occurrence districts were visited and 124 presence observations were taken. The records, altitude, and 19 bio-climatic variables were used to run a species distribution model to account for the climate change effect on the species. Maxent, Diva-GIS, and ArcGIS were used to evaluate the outputs. Future suitable habitats were projected into mid and end-century time frames with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) under one General Circulation Model, namely the Climate Community System Model Version-4. Our results showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month and altitude are main predictors of the distribution of the species. Suitable habitats of the species will be decreased by 79.84%, 91.17%, 75.31%, and 96.25% in Mid-century RCP2.6, Mid-century RCP8.5, End-century RCP2.6, and End-century RCP8.5 when compared with current distributions, respectively. This indicates that climate change will affect the future distribution of the species. The results of the study indicate that appropriate management strategies must be taken to ensure the long-term survival of J. procera.     

辽河口湿地保护区黑嘴鸥繁殖栖息地调查

采用样点布设法对2019年辽河口湿地保护区黑嘴鸥繁殖栖息地的植被分布情况、底质土壤理化性质、底栖动物分布情况进行调查检测,对比分析黑嘴鸥繁殖习性和生境条件之间的关系。调查结果表明,①黑嘴鸥繁殖栖息地的植被为单一的翅碱蓬群落植被,翅碱蓬高度为4.3~42.6 cm,覆盖率为20%~100%。底部沉积物为滨海盐渍土,表层沉积物仍为较稠密的粉质黏土,沉积物盐度大,质地坚硬。黑头鸥栖息地只有大型底栖动物6种,占绝对优势种是二叉摇蚊的三段幼虫。黑嘴鸥繁殖区集中在本研究区,分布有繁殖黑嘴鸥9746只,占繁殖种群的98.48%。该地区全球濒危物种黑嘴鸥的繁殖活动已受到不利影响,应在受保护物种受到严重影响之前予以保护。