珍稀植物楠木的地理分布及潜在分布区的预测

以植物地理分布与气候变化间的关系为研究基础,通过MaxEnt模型,应用贡献率、置换重要值以及Jackknife检验、主成分分析,模拟研究影响楠木Phoebe zhennan地理分布的主要因子,分析楠木在当前的地理分布格局,并预测未来楠木在中国的潜在分布格局。结果表明,采用MaxEnt模型预测其潜在适宜分布区准确度极高,楠木在ROC曲线下的AUC值达0.995;当前(2019)适生区预测表明,四川东南部、重庆和贵州是其分布最集中的地方,其次云南、广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西、湖北也有零散分布;随着未来(2050年)气温与降雨量的变化,江苏将有较大范围适合楠木分布,但是总的适生区面积比当前减少,例如贵州西南部的适生区面积将变小,福建、江西中度适生分布面积将变大,其余地区的适生区和当前持平。本研究结果表明,影响楠木分布的主要气候因子是温度和降雨量,可为楠木资源的科学保护和合理利用提供理论依据。

Geographical Distribution of Phoebe zhennan and Potential Distribution Area

Main factors to influence geographical distribution of Phoebe zhennan were researched by MaxEnt model with application of contribution rate,substitution value,Jackknife test and principal component analysis.The result demonstrated that MaxEnt model predicting the potential suitable distribution area of Ph.zhennan had high accuracy,with area under curve of receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.995.The current suitable area(2019)prediction indicated the southeastern Sichuan,Chongqing and Guizhou,followed by Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Hubei.Jiangsu would have larger area for Ph.zhennan distribution with the change of precipitation in the year of 2050,but the suitable distribution would be reduced.The research concluded that temperature and precipitation was the main factors affecting the distribution of Ph.zhennan.