中国加强进口木材合法性管理的经济影响分析

非法采伐及相关贸易被认为是导致毁林和全球气候变暖的主要原因之一,对全世界的经济、社会和环境带来了负面影响。中国是全球第1大林产品贸易国,进口木材已占我国木材来源的50%以上,而其中很多来自非伐采伐风险比较高的热带国家/地区,倍受国际舆论压力。在此背景下,中国政府正在不断完善相关法规政策以加强对进口木材合法性的管理。文中采用静态GTAP模型模拟了出台进口材合法性管理政策法规背景下企业选取不同合规机制对中国和全球林产品贸易的影响。结果表明,中国加强进口材合法性的管理将改变中国木材进口格局,其产生的主要福利损失由中国和被判定为非法采伐高风险的国家/地区承担,而低风险国家/地区则实现了福利增加。     

Forest product trade,wood consumption,and forest conservation—the case of 61 countries

Trade barriers of forest products are often advocated in the name of protecting forest resources. Whether the promoting of trade of forest products will increase or decrease the global forest resources is still a matter of debate. We offer an assessment of how forest product trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating wood consumption change to trade of forest products based on cross-section data from 61 countries in 2010. The result shows that wood outputs have positive effects on wood consumption. Compared to domestic production, the result suggests that imports of forest products can help reduce wood consumption. This may indicate that trade liberalization can promote the allocation efficiency of timber resources across the global, which can improve the utilization efficiency and reduce the wood consumption in the world to protect the global forest resources. It is suggested that the high-efficient harvest and wood-processing technological transfer should be advocated in the international community to contribute to global forest conservation.     

Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.     

当代世界林业发展总趋势

本文主要就世界森林资源消长，林业发展战略，森林工业政策，林业科技，科研教育等发展趋势进行了论述，为研究和制定我国林业发展战略和长远规划提供科学依据和借鉴。     

打击木材非法采伐的森林执法管理与贸易国际进程

探讨了世界森林执法管理与贸易国际进程现状, 分析了森林执法管理与贸易进程和打击木材非法采伐存在的主要问题, 并提出推进国际森林公约、参与跨国联合行动、提高木材供给国执法能力、加强消费国木材监管体系建设、重视非政府组织意见、加强行业信用评价、积极开展森林认证和引导消费者的态度等加强森林执法管理与控制木材非法贸易的对策建议。     

中国主要木制品国际贸易现状和趋势

我国加入世界贸易组织后,大量木制品开始走出国门,一定程度上提高了我国木制品的世界影响力与竞争力,对塑造民族品牌起到了积极作用。从全球范围内来看,对于木制品的需求逐步上升,尤其是美国、日本、欧盟等国家和地区,这给我国木制品加工企业带来了前所未有的机遇。然而,我国木制品在走向世界的过程中,也遇到了相关困难及贸易壁垒,这些都需要国内木制品企业进行有效应对,以便更好地适应新形势下的国际木制品市场需求。简述了世界和我国木制品及贸易的基本情况,分析了我国木制品拓展国际市场面临的机遇和挑战,在此基础上,提出了新形势下我国木制品深化发展的基本策略。     

80年代世界林产工业发展概况

文章分别介绍了８０年代发达国家和发展中国家的森林工业政策和实施措施；分析了８０年代世界林产工业发展的特点，对工业材、薪炭材、纸和纸板、人造板等的生产及其增长情况进行了详细论述。     

世界出口林产品质量发展态势及其影响因素分析——基于改进的Nested-Logit模型

文中采用Khandelwal提出的Nested-Logit模型测度2001—2015年中国等15个主要林产品贸易强国的出口林产品质量指数,随后采用面板数据模型分析影响出口林产品质量的主要因素。结果显示:发展中国家出口林产品质量发展态势相对一致,总体呈现为稳步增长;发达国家出口林产品质量发展趋势分化明显,存在缓慢增长、小幅波动、缓慢下降等几种态势;国家间出口林产品质量影响因素存在较大差异,发展中国家出口林产品质量受技术水平和出口规模影响更为显著,发达国家受出口国国际贸易自由度和出口目的地经济发展水平影响较为显著。中国木材加工企业应通过紧跟国内消费需求、谋求国际市场多元化、重视设备技术提升等手段提升木质林产品质量和品牌建设,以质量和品牌实现差异化的国际竞争战略,进而谋取更大的国际市场和更高的利润空间。     

Analysis of trade in illegally harvested timber: Accounting for trade via third party countries

The paper presents a model to analyse trade in illegally harvested timber with a particular focus on trade via third party countries. The model is deduced from the conventional input–output-analysis. In contrast to this type of analysis, inverse export coefficients are introduced to analyse the effect of a certain amount of country-specific supply, e.g., of illegally harvested timber, to the use of wood and wood products of all other countries, based on trade relationships. A database has been compiled especially for application of the model. It comprises data on industrial round-wood production in terms of industrial wood harvested and removed from the forest; recovered wood fibre in the form of recovered paper and waste wood; bilateral trade of 272 wood-based commodities in m³ raw wood equivalent (rwe), and domestic use of those commodities. Two scenarios expressing high and low estimates of illegal harvesting for all countries have been employed in the model. The model reveals the trade linkages between all countries of the world and allows quantification of the global supply and use arising from illegal harvesting. Furthermore it allows calculation of the import of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world. And finally, the model likewise allows the quantification of domestic use of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world.The results show that international trade increases the global domestic supply of illegally harvested timber by more than 70% in each scenario. In particular industrial round-wood from Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar passes through many countries until it ends in form of finished wood products in the country of final destination. Not only due to suggested illegally harvested timber in the own country, but also due to strongly developed trade relationships, China holds the lead in total supply and use of illegally harvested timber. However this result must be seen against the background of the large population in China. This aspect also helps to explain the predominant position of China, Brazil and Russia with regard to the domestic use of illegally harvested timber. A comparison of import of illegally harvested timber on the basis of “simple” (covering only bilateral trade) and inverse export coefficients demonstrates the model's merit. The hitherto usually simple approach underestimates the “real” trade by a third up to a half.     

Potential effects of a Trans-Pacific Partnership on forest industries

This study explored the consequences for the forest sector of a trade agreement between Australia, Canada, Chile, Brunei Darussalam, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam (TPP12), and of an extension to include India, China and the Republic of Korea (TPP15). The forecasts used a partial equilibrium model to predict the effects of reduced trade costs due to tariff elimination and of forest product demand shifts resulting from the macroeconomic impacts of TPP12 and TPP15 predicted by Narayanan and Sharma (http://wtocentre.iift.ac.in/workingpaper/workingpaper14.pdf). The results showed the effects of the agreements on the consumption, production, and trade of roundwood, sawnwood and panels, and pulp and paper, for the countries directly involved in the agreements, the European Union, and the rest of the world (ROW). Under TPP12, the main total welfare gains of wood producers and forest product consumers were in the United States and Vietnam, and the greatest losses in China and Korea. Global welfare gains were considerably larger under TPP15, to the advantage of China, Japan and Korea, but to the detriment of the United States, the European Union and the ROW.     

南非林业发展及启示与两国林业合作展望

中国正在加强实施"走出去"战略,寻求多元化的林业国际合作。南非是非洲最为发达的国家,并且与中国同为发展中国家和金砖国家。文中以FAO和南非农林渔业部等机构最新资料和数据为依据,介绍南非森林资源、林业法规、管理机构、森林经营管理、森林旅游、林产品生产与贸易等林业发展现状,探讨其土地产权问题、林业转型和社区参与对中国林业发展的一些启示,并提出中国可与南非在精准提升森林质量、林产品贸易、森林资源开发以及旱区造林技术等领域深入合作,为加强双边合作提供参考,对提升中国林业在非洲乃至国际上的形象与影响力具有重要意义。     

China's role in the global forest sector: how will the US recovery and a diminished Chinese demand influence global wood markets?

Over the last decade, while the size of China's economy more than doubled, China has simultaneously become a major producer and exporter of forest products. Although China's domestic supply of wood is significantly constrained both by a limited natural supply and by conservation-oriented policies, the country is increasingly regarded as the world's “wood workshop.” Furthermore, China is the largest driver of demand for the trade in tropical logs and is becoming a significant driver of demand for trade in coniferous logs. In this paper, we describe a spatial equilibrium model adapted to study forest sector markets and policies that affect them. We present the model and the result of two alternative future scenarios. The first scenario analyzes the impact on global forest products markets of a US recovery in wood markets. The second scenario examines the effect on global forest products markets of decelerating growth in Chinese demand for wood products. Through these two scenarios, the modeling output sheds light on the role China's wood products markets have on resource supply and trade around the world. The trade model shows substantial potential changes in global prices, production, and trade activity associated with the recovery in domestic demand in the USA.     

Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes over time of the input–output (I–O) coefficients and of the manufacturing cost (labor, capital, and materials, excluding wood and fiber). In the case of the global forest products model, the I–O coefficients and the manufacturing costs are determined empirically from historical data, while correcting for possible reporting errors. The method consists of goal programming. The objective function is the sum of the weighted absolute value of the deviations from estimated and observed production in each country of interest. The constraints express the relationship between the multiple output (sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper) and input (wood, waste paper, other fiber) and prior knowledge on the limits of the I–O coefficients. The paper presents observed technical changes from 1993 to 2010 and projections to 2030 with their consequences for the global forest sector in terms of prices, production and consumption, value added, and carbon sequestration in forest biomass.     

Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.     

开发境外森林资源促进我国林业发展

我国林业发展面临的主要问题表现在森林资源数量不足,整体质量较差;由于木材及林产品需求量大,国内森林资源面临巨大压力;同时,林业企业人力、物力大量闲置。严重的生态环境问题要求人们保护和发展森林资源。通过比较中国与世界上的森林资源,认为世界森林资源分布不均、发达国家生产结构调整和发展中国家的对外开放政策为我国开发利用境外森林资源提供了可能。在论述其可行性的基础上,提出了境外森林资源开发的基本思路。     

中国主要林产品海外市场贸易政策变动分析

2005年以来在国际林产品贸易中木材来源问题受到越来越多的关注,重要林产品进口国纷纷出台相关法规以确保进口林产品木材来源的可靠性。作为林产品国际贸易链重要组成部分的中国林业产业,有必要充分了解这些市场新要求,提升企业管理水平,以确保在林产品国际市场上的综合竞争优势。文中比较分析了近些年新出台的主要林产品国际贸易规则及对中国的潜在影响。     

政府在森林认证中的作用探讨

森林认证作为促进森林可持续经营的市场机制, 在世界范围内取得了快速发展。它由非政府组织发起, 而政府作为参与方之一在大多数国家森林认证的发展中发挥了重要作用, 包括提供森林认证所需的法规政策环境、创建森林认证体系、规范和开发认证林产品市场、制定鼓励政策和确保公平合理的国际贸易规则等。作为一种市场机制, 森林认证强调各利益方的共同参与, 并依靠市场运作。因此, 认证需要与政府保持一定的独立性。文中对各国政府在森林认证中的作用进行阐述, 并探讨我国政府在森林认证中应发挥的作用。     

关于国际森林问题的思考

介绍了国际森林问题的由来、内涵和特点, 分析了发展中国家和发达国家在全球森林可持续经营中面临的问题、成因和对实质性根源等方面的共识, 提出我国参与国际森林问题谈判应当遵循的原则。