Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect: might they be connected?

Secular sea level trends extracted from tide gauge records of appropriately long duration demonstrate that global sea level may be rising at a rate in excess of 1 millimeter per year. However, because global coverage of the oceans by the tide gauge network is highly nonuniform and the tide gauge data reveal considerable spatial variability, there has been a well-founded reluctance to interpret the observed secular sea level rise as representing a signal of global scale that might be related to the greenhouse effect. When the tide gauge data are filtered so as to remove the contribution of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment to the local sea level trend at each location, then the individual tide gauge records reveal sharply reduced geographic scatter and suggest that there is a globally coherent signal of strength 2.4 +/- 0.90 millimeters per year that is active in the system. This signal could constitute an indication of global climate warming.     

Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica

Using measurements of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites, we determined mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during 2002-2005. We found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 +/- 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, which is equivalent to 0.4 +/- 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Effect of sedimentation on ice-sheet grounding-line stability

Sedimentation filling space beneath ice shelves helps to stabilize ice sheets against grounding-line retreat in response to a rise in relative sea level of at least several meters. Recent Antarctic changes thus cannot be attributed to sea-level rise, strengthening earlier interpretations that warming has driven ice-sheet mass loss. Large sea-level rise, such as the approximately 100-meter rise at the end of the last ice age, may overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation, but smaller sea-level changes are unlikely to have synchronized the behavior of ice sheets in the past.     

Rapid changes in ice discharge from Greenland outlet glaciers

Using satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, we found major short-term variations in recent ice discharge and mass loss at two of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers. Their combined rate of mass loss doubled in less than a year in 2004 and then decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates, likely as a result of fast re-equilibration of calving-front geometry after retreat. Total mass loss is a fraction of concurrent gravity-derived estimates, pointing to an alternative source of loss and the need for high-resolution observations of outlet dynamics and glacier geometry for sea-level rise predictions.     

Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

After a century of polar exploration, the past decade of satellite measurements has painted an altogether new picture of how Earth's ice sheets are changing. As global temperatures have risen, so have rates of snowfall, ice melting, and glacier flow. Although the balance between these opposing processes has varied considerably on a regional scale, data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year. This is only a modest contribution to the present rate of sea-level rise of 3.0 millimeters per year. However, much of the loss from Antarctica and Greenland is the result of the flow of ice to the ocean from ice streams and glaciers, which has accelerated over the past decade. In both continents, there are suspected triggers for the accelerated ice discharge-surface and ocean warming, respectively-and, over the course of the 21st century, these processes could rapidly counteract the snowfall gains predicted by present coupled climate models.     

Sea level change through the last glacial cycle

Sea level change during the Quaternary is primarily a consequence of the cyclic growth and decay of ice sheets, resulting in a complex spatial and temporal pattern. Observations of this variability provide constraints on the timing, rates, and magnitudes of the changes in ice mass during a glacial cycle, as well as more limited information on the distribution of ice between the major ice sheets at any time. Observations of glacially induced sea level changes also provide information on the response of the mantle to surface loading on time scales of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Regional analyses indicate that the earth-response function is depth dependent as well as spatially variable. Comprehensive models of sea level change enable the migration of coastlines to be predicted during glacial cycles, including the anthropologically important period from about 60,000 to 20,000 years ago.     

The Phanerozoic record of global sea-level change

We review Phanerozoic sea-level changes [543 million years ago (Ma) to the present] on various time scales and present a new sea-level record for the past 100 million years (My). Long-term sea level peaked at 100 +/- 50 meters during the Cretaceous, implying that ocean-crust production rates were much lower than previously inferred. Sea level mirrors oxygen isotope variations, reflecting ice-volume change on the 10(4)- to 10(6)-year scale, but a link between oxygen isotope and sea level on the 10(7)-year scale must be due to temperature changes that we attribute to tectonically controlled carbon dioxide variations. Sea-level change has influenced phytoplankton evolution, ocean chemistry, and the loci of carbonate, organic carbon, and siliciclastic sediment burial. Over the past 100 My, sea-level changes reflect global climate evolution from a time of ephemeral Antarctic ice sheets (100 to 33 Ma), through a time of large ice sheets primarily in Antarctica (33 to 2.5 Ma), to a world with large Antarctic and large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (2.5 Ma to the present).     

1989—2018年南极布兰斯菲尔德海峡海冰时空变化分析

基于1989—2018年美国冰雪中心海冰密集度数据，分析近30年南极布兰斯菲尔德海峡及附近海域海冰分布规律及变化趋势。结果表明，布兰斯菲尔德海峡内部海冰属于1年冰，海冰密集度于2月达到最低，8月达到最高，历史上强厄尔尼诺年份与该区域海冰密集度较低的年份存在明显对应关系。对30年冰情线性拟合得到年际变化趋势，海峡内结冰月份普遍延迟，年结冰月数以减少为主。3个代表站点的海冰密集度分析结果显示，海峡内A站点海冰变化与海峡口外北部海域B站点的相关性较强，与海峡口外南部靠近威德尔海区域C站点的相关性弱。循环神经网络模型可用于预测和分析海冰密集度的时序变化，尤其是适合海冰密集度相对较低的时序分析。     

Core drilling through the ross ice shelf (antarctica) confirmed Basal freezing

New techniques that have been used to obtain a continuous ice core through the whole 416-meter thickness of the Ross Ice Shelf at Camp J-9 have demonstrated that the bottom 6 meters of the ice shelf consists of sea ice. The rate of basal freezing that is forming this ice is estimated by different methods to be 2 centimeters of ice per year. The sea ice is composed of large vertical crystals, which form the waffle-like lower boundary of the shelf. A distinct alignment of the crystals throughout the sea ice layer suggests the presence of persistent long-term currents beneath the ice shelf.     

Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999 have been coupled with previously reported data from southern Greenland to analyze the recent mass-balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Above 2000 meters elevation, the ice sheet is in balance on average but has some regions of local thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year close to the coast. Interpolation of our results between flight lines indicates a net loss of about 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entire ice sheet, sufficient to raise sea level by 0.13 millimeter per year-approximately 7% of the observed rise.     

3月北半球海冰趋势变化的区域特征及影响因子分析

利用海冰密集度资料和海冰范围指数,分析了3月北半球海冰在1979-1995年和1996-2014年2个时间段内的变化趋势以及趋势差异的区域特征.结果表明:北半球3月总海冰范围以稳定速率减少,速率无明显加速.而各个分海域的海冰变化表现出一定的区域差异.其中,巴伦支海海冰在2个时期内以稳定的速率减少;白令海海冰不减反增;鄂霍次克海海冰缩减速度在后期减小;圣劳伦斯湾的海冰范围在90年代中期以前显著增大,后期缓慢缩减. 3月海冰趋势变化的空间特征与同期表面气温和表面风场的趋势变化相一致.     

Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial

During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.     

Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the International Geophysical Year

Antarctic snowfall exhibits substantial variability over a range of time scales, with consequent impacts on global sea level and the mass balance of the ice sheets. To assess how snowfall has affected the thickness of the ice sheets in Antarctica and to provide an extended perspective, we derived a 50-year time series of snowfall accumulation over the continent by combining model simulations and observations primarily from ice cores. There has been no statistically significant change in snowfall since the 1950s, indicating that Antarctic precipitation is not mitigating global sea level rise as expected, despite recent winter warming of the overlying atmosphere.     

The rise of global mean sea level as an indication of climate change

Rising mean sea level, it is proposed, is a significant indicator of global climate change. The principal factors that can have contributed to the observed increases of global mean sea level in recent decades are thermal expansion of the oceans and the discharge of polar ice sheets. Calculations indicate that thermal expansion cannot be the sole factor responsible for the observed rise in sea level over the last 40 years; significant discharges of polar ice must also be occurring. Global warming, due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, has been opposed by the extraction of heat necessary to melt the discharged ice. During the past 40 years more than 50,000 cubic kilometers of ice has been discharged and has melted, reducing the surface warming that might otherwise have occurred by as much as a factor of 2. The transfer of mass from the polar regions to a thin spherical shell covering all the oceans should have increased the earth's moment of inertia and correspondingly reduced the speed of rotation by about 1.5 parts in 10(8). This accounts for about three quarters of the observed fractional reduction in the earth's angular velocity since 1940. Monitoring of global mean sea level, ocean surface temperatures, and the earth's speed of rotation should be complemented by monitoring of the polar ice sheets, as is now possible by satellite altimetry. All parts of the puzzle need to be examined in order that a consistent picture emerge.     

Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to sea level rise

Digital elevation models of the Northern and Southern Patagonia Icefields of South America generated from the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were compared with earlier cartography to estimate the volume change of the largest 63 glaciers. During the period 1968/1975-2000, these glaciers lost ice at a rate equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.042 +/- 0.002 millimeters per year. In the more recent years 1995-2000, average ice thinning rates have more than doubled to an equivalent sea level rise of 0.105 +/- 0.011 millimeters per year. The glaciers are thinning more quickly than can be explained by warmer air temperatures and decreased precipitation, and their contribution to sea level per unit area is larger than that of Alaska glaciers.     

Ice core evidence for Antarctic sea ice decline since the 1950s

The instrumental record of Antarctic sea ice in recent decades does not reveal a clear signature of warming despite observational evidence from coastal Antarctica. Here we report a significant correlation (P < 0.002) between methanesulphonic acid (MSA) concentrations from a Law Dome ice core and 22 years of satellite-derived sea ice extent (SIE) for the 80 degrees E to 140 degrees E sector. Applying this instrumental calibration to longer term MSA data (1841 to 1995 A.D.) suggests that there has been a 20% decline in SIE since about 1950. The decline is not uniform, showing large cyclical variations, with periods of about 11 years, that confuse trend detection over the relatively short satellite era.     

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.     

Satellite Evidence for an Arctic Sea Ice Cover in Transformation

Recent research using microwave satellite remote sensing data has established that there has been a reduction of about 3 percent per decade in the areal extent of the Arctic sea ice cover since 1978, although it is unknown whether the nature of the perennial ice pack has changed. These data were used to quantify changes in the ice cover's composition, revealing a substantial reduction of about 14 percent in the area of multiyear ice in winter during the period from 1978 to 1998. There also appears to be a strong correlation between the area of multiyear ice and the spatially averaged thickness of the perennial ice pack, which suggests that the satellite-derived areal decreases represent substantial rather than only peripheral changes. If this apparent transformation continues, it may lead to a markedly different ice regime in the Arctic, altering heat and mass exchanges as well as ocean stratification.     

Sea level as affected by river runoff, eastern United States

Variations in annual river inflow account for 7 to 21 percent of the total variation in average annual sea level along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the United States. This compares with 29 to 68 percent of the total variation that can be attributed to the secular rise of sea level, and with 10 to 50 percent of the variation that cannot be attributed to either the river inflow or the secular rise.     

Antarctic timing of surface water changes off Chile and Patagonian ice sheet response

Marine sediments from the Chilean continental margin are used to infer millennial-scale changes in southeast Pacific surface ocean water properties and Patagonian ice sheet extent since the last glacial period. Our data show a clear "Antarctic" timing of sea surface temperature changes, which appear systematically linked to meridional displacements in sea ice, westerly winds, and the circumpolar current system. Proxy data for ice sheet changes show a similar pattern as oceanographic variations offshore, but reveal a variable glacier-response time of up to approximately 1000 years, which may explain some of the current discrepancies among terrestrial records in southern South America.