CLIMATE CHANGE: Enhanced: The Greenland Ice Sheet Reacts

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds a substantial part of Earth's fresh water, and melting of the sheet contributes to sea level rise. Dahl-Jensen discusses the reports by Krabill et al. and Thomas et al., which shed light on short- and long-term surface elevation changes of the ice sheet. Low-altitude areas are melting, but high-altitude areas show no net reduction over both the short and the long term.     

Changes in the west antarctic ice sheet

The portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet that flows into the Ross Sea is thinning in some places and thickening in others. These changes are not caused by any current climatic change, but by the combination of a delayed response to the end of the last global glacial cycle and an internal instability. The near-future impact of the ice sheet on global sea level is largely due to processes internal to the movement of the ice sheet, and not so much to the threat of a possible greenhouse warming. Thus the near-term future of the ice sheet is already determined. However, too little of the ice sheet has been surveyed to predict its overall future behavior.     

Natural variability of Greenland climate, vegetation, and ice volume during the past million years

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is a source of concern notably because of its potential contribution to changes in the sea level. We demonstrated the natural vulnerability of the ice sheet by using pollen records from marine sediment off southwest Greenland that indicate important changes of the vegetation in Greenland over the past million years. The vegetation that developed over southern Greenland during the last interglacial period is consistent with model experiments, suggesting a reduced volume of the Greenland ice sheet. Abundant spruce pollen indicates that boreal coniferous forest developed some 400,000 years ago during the "warm" interval of marine isotope stage 11, providing a time frame for the development and decline of boreal ecosystems over a nearly ice-free Greenland.     

Evidence for Glacial Control of Rapid Sea Level Changes in the Early Cretaceous

Lower Cretaceous bulk carbonate from deep sea sediments records sudden inputs of strontium resulting from the exposure of continental shelves. Strontium data from an interval spanning 7 million years in the Berriasian-Valanginian imply that global sea level fluctuated about 50 meters over time scales of 200,000 to 500,000 years, which is in agreement with the Exxon sea level curve. Oxygen isotope measurements indicate that the growth of continental ice sheets caused these rapid sea level changes. If glaciation caused all the rapid sea level changes in the Cretaceous that are indicated by the Exxon curve, then an Antarctic ice sheet may have existed despite overall climatic warmth.     

Global sea level and Earth rotation

Recent analyses of long time scale secular variations of sea level, based on tide gauge observations, have established that sea level is apparently rising at a globally averaged rate somewhat in excess of 1 millimeter per year. It has been suggested that the nonsteric component of this secular rate might be explicable in terms of ongoing mass loss from the small ice sheets and glaciers of the world. Satellite laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry data may be used to deliver strong constraints on this important scenario because of the information that these systems provide on variations of the length of day and of the position of the rotation pole with respect to the earth's surface geography. These data demonstrate that the hypothesis of mass loss is plausible if the Barents Sea was covered by a substantial ice sheet at the last maximum of the current ice age 18,000 years ago.     

3月北半球海冰趋势变化的区域特征及影响因子分析

利用海冰密集度资料和海冰范围指数,分析了3月北半球海冰在1979-1995年和1996-2014年2个时间段内的变化趋势以及趋势差异的区域特征.结果表明:北半球3月总海冰范围以稳定速率减少,速率无明显加速.而各个分海域的海冰变化表现出一定的区域差异.其中,巴伦支海海冰在2个时期内以稳定的速率减少;白令海海冰不减反增;鄂霍次克海海冰缩减速度在后期减小;圣劳伦斯湾的海冰范围在90年代中期以前显著增大,后期缓慢缩减. 3月海冰趋势变化的空间特征与同期表面气温和表面风场的趋势变化相一致.     

The position of the gulf stream during quaternary glaciations

Ocean general circulation theories predict that the position of the boundary between subtropical and subpolar gyres (and therefore the position of the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system and the subpolar-subtropical front) is set by the line of zero "Ekman pumping," where there is no convergence or divergence of water in the directly wind-forced surface layer of the ocean. In the present-day North Atlantic Ocean this line runs southwest to northeast, from off the Carolinas to off Ireland. However, during the last ice age (18,000 years ago) the subpolar-subtropical boundary ran more zonally, directly toward Gibraltar. A numerical atmospheric general circulation model indicates that the field of Ekman pumping 18,000 years ago was modified by the presence of a continental ice cap more than 3 kilometers thick such that the line of zero Ekman pumping overlaid the paleogyre boundary. These results demonstrate that the presence of a thick continental ice sheet could have caused changes in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic during Quaternary glaciations by altering wind patterns.     

Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial

During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.     

Elevation changes in Antarctica mainly determined by accumulation variability

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation changes, which are used to estimate changes in the mass of the interior regions, are caused by variations in the depth of the firn layer. We quantified the effects of temperature and accumulation variability on firn layer thickness by simulating the 1980-2004 Antarctic firn depth variability. For most of Antarctica, the magnitudes of firn depth changes were comparable to those of observed ice sheet elevation changes. The current satellite observational period ( approximately 15 years) is too short to neglect these fluctuations in firn depth when computing recent ice sheet mass changes. The amount of surface lowering in the Amundsen Sea Embayment revealed by satellite radar altimetry (1995-2003) was increased by including firn depth fluctuations, while a large area of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet slowly grew as a result of increased accumulation.     

West antarctic ice sheet: present-day thinning and holocene retreat of the margins

Retreat of the margins of the West Antarctic ice sheet associated with rising sea level during the last 15,000 years is the main cause for the thinning of the ice sheet by approximately 300 meters. The West Antarctic ice sheet during the late Wisconsin was at least 30 percent wider than it is today, and Holocene retreat of its margins has added about 6 meters to the world sea level.     

Ocean science. Coral clues to rapid sea-level change

Earth's climate can change substantially on time scales of 1000 years or so, but given the time it takes for an ice sheet to grow or melt, it has been unclear whether continental ice sheets-and hence global sea levels-mirror these rapid changes. In his Perspective, Henderson discusses the report by Thompson and Goldstein, who have used a new correction method to date coral samples that are up to 250,000 years old. The corals can be used to deduce past sea levels. The resulting sea-level record shows that sea levels have varied on millennial time scales even during times of high sea level and relative climate stability.     

Primary Production in Antarctic Sea Ice

A numerical model shows that in Antarctic sea ice, increased flooding in regions with thick snow cover enhances primary production in the infiltration (surface) layer. Productivity in the freeboard (sea level) layer is also determined by sea ice porosity, which varies with temperature. Spatial and temporal variation in snow thickness and the proportion of first-year ice thus determine regional differences in sea ice primary production. Model results show that of the 40 teragrams of carbon produced annually in the Antarctic ice pack, 75 percent was associated with first-year ice and nearly 50 percent was produced in the Weddell Sea.     

Elevation change of the southern greenland ice sheet

Seasat and Geosat satellite altimeter measurements for the Greenland ice sheet (south of 72 degreesN latitude) show that surface elevations above 2000 meters increased at an average rate of only 1. 5 +/- 0.5 centimeters per year from 1978 to 1988. In contrast, elevation changes varied regionally from -15 to +18 centimeters per year, seasonally by +/-15 centimeters, and interannually by +/-8 centimeters. The average growth rate is too small to determine if the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change due to a warmer polar climate.     

Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999 have been coupled with previously reported data from southern Greenland to analyze the recent mass-balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Above 2000 meters elevation, the ice sheet is in balance on average but has some regions of local thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year close to the coast. Interpolation of our results between flight lines indicates a net loss of about 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entire ice sheet, sufficient to raise sea level by 0.13 millimeter per year-approximately 7% of the observed rise.     

Heat flux anomalies in Antarctica revealed by satellite magnetic data

The geothermal heat flux is an important factor in the dynamics of ice sheets; it affects the occurrence of subglacial lakes, the onset of ice streams, and mass losses from the ice sheet base. Because direct heat flux measurements in ice-covered regions are difficult to obtain, we developed a method that uses satellite magnetic data to estimate the heat flux underneath the Antarctic ice sheet. We found that the heat flux underneath the ice sheet varies from 40 to 185 megawatts per square meter and that areas of high heat flux coincide with known current volcanism and some areas known to have ice streams.     

Plio-Pleistocene ice volume, Antarctic climate, and the global delta18O record

We propose that from approximately 3 to 1 million years ago, ice volume changes occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, each controlled by local summer insolation. Because Earth's orbital precession is out of phase between hemispheres, 23,000-year changes in ice volume in each hemisphere cancel out in globally integrated proxies such as ocean delta18O or sea level, leaving the in-phase obliquity (41,000 years) component of insolation to dominate those records. Only a modest ice mass change in Antarctica is required to effectively cancel out a much larger northern ice volume signal. At the mid-Pleistocene transition, we propose that marine-based ice sheet margins replaced terrestrial ice margins around the perimeter of East Antarctica, resulting in a shift to in-phase behavior of northern and southern ice sheets as well as the strengthening of 23,000-year cyclicity in the marine delta18O record.     

A 0.5-million-year record of millennial-scale climate variability in the north atlantic

Long, continuous, marine sediment records from the subpolar North Atlantic document the glacial modulation of regional climate instability throughout the past 0.5 million years. Whenever ice sheet size surpasses a critical threshold indicated by the benthic oxygen isotope (delta18O) value of 3.5 per mil during each of the past five glaciation cycles, indicators of iceberg discharge and sea-surface temperature display dramatically larger amplitudes of millennial-scale variability than when ice sheets are small. Sea-surface temperature oscillations of 1 degrees to 2 degreesC increase in size to approximately 4 degrees to 6 degreesC, and catastrophic iceberg discharges begin alternating repeatedly with brief quiescent intervals. The glacial growth associated with this amplification threshold represents a relatively small departure from the modern ice sheet configuration and sea level. Instability characterizes nearly all observed climate states, with the exception of a limited range of baseline conditions that includes the current Holocene interglacial.     

Isotopic evidence for glaciation during the Cretaceous supergreenhouse

The Turonian (93.5 to 89.3 million years ago) was one of the warmest periods of the Phanerozoic eon, with tropical sea surface temperatures over 35 degrees C. High-amplitude sea-level changes and positive delta18O excursions in marine limestones suggest that glaciation events may have punctuated this episode of extreme warmth. New delta18O data from the tropical Atlantic show synchronous shifts approximately 91.2 million years ago for both the surface and deep ocean that are consistent with an approximately 200,000-year period of glaciation, with ice sheets of about half the size of the modern Antarctic ice cap. Even the prevailing supergreenhouse climate was not a barrier to the formation of large ice sheets, calling into question the common assumption that the poles were always ice-free during past periods of intense global warming.     

State of equilibrium of the west antarctic inland ice sheet

Data from a traverse connecting Byrd Station, Antarctica, with the local ice divide allow calculation of the mean volume flux at points along the traverse. This is compared with current rates of surface accretion upstream from each point. Near the ice divide the ice sheet seems to be in equilibrium, but near Byrd Station the volume flux is in excess of that needed for ice sheet equilibrium by at least 15 percent. The discrepancy may exist because the traverse does not follow the ice flow exactly or because ice flow at depth is very complex. Although neither of the foregoing possibilities can be disproved, it seems most likely that the discrepancy is due to ice sheet thinning, as has previously been suggested by work on oxygen isotope ratios and temperature in the boreholes at Byrd Station. This thinning probably started at the end of the Wisconsin/Würm glaciation. Causes for the thinning are discussed.     

Ice age paleotopography

A gravitationally self-consistent theory of postglacial relative sea level change is used to infer the variation of surface ice and water cover since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results show that LGM ice volume was approximately 35 percent lower than suggested by the CLIMAP reconstruction and the maximum heights of the main Laurentian and Fennoscandian ice complexes are inferred to have been commensurately lower with respect to sea level. Use of these Ice Age boundary conditions in atmospheric general circulation models will yield climates that differ significantly from those previously inferred on the basis of the CLIMAP data set.