2006年大豆、豆粕行情回顾及2007年展望

1 2006年大豆市场回顾 1．1国内生产 1．1．1种植面积 2006年，我国大豆种植面积同比继续下降。大豆播种面积预计910万hm^2，同比降低5．1％。豆农生产积极性下降是最根本的原因，影响因素如下：[第一段]     

种植面积减少奠定大豆长期利多基调

大豆作为主要的油料作物与居民的生活息息相关。国内油脂需求逐年上升，而国内大豆产量上升潜力不大。由于近两年大豆种植效益偏低．导致大豆种植面积减少，国内大豆产量萎缩。进口大豆在总消费量中的占比逐年上升，目前已经占据80％的份额。因此，分析大豆市场走势，     

中国大豆:十载巨变泥泞前行

1995年，中国大豆产量1 350万t，进口80万t，国外进口基本可以忽略不计； 1996年，中国大豆产量1 322万t，进口220万t，大规模进口拉开大幕： 2003年，中国大豆产量l 640万t。进口2074万t，国外进口首次超过国内产量； 2005年，中国大豆产量1 830万t，进口2659万t，国外进口超过国内产量近900万t。     

2008年我国玉米产量预计为1.56亿吨

2008年8月份，我国玉米播种面积为2785万hm^2．较上年的2805万hm^2减少20万hm^2，减幅0．71％。主要原因为大豆种植效益高于玉米，农户将部分玉米耕地转种大豆。预计2008年我国玉米产量为15600万t，较上年增长417万t，预计东北地区玉米单产将在经历了上年的严重干旱后会有恢复性提高。     

2002年我国大豆市场分析与展望

2002年全国大豆种植面积虽然比上年下降7.3%，但平均亩产（122.5kg)增长了13%，总产量达到1620万t，增长4.8%，单产和总产均创建国以来最高纪录。大豆品质和农民收入得到提高，生产成本降低，这是政策扶持，天公做美的结果。2002年1-11月份累计进口跑龙套豆1025.5万t，同时下降20%，累计进口豆油71.6万，同比增长10.2倍，累计出口豆粕95.6万t，同比增长3.8倍。预计2002/2003年度大豆进口量为1080万，供求基本平衡，库存有所减少；油菜籽减产、进口减少，菜油供应紧张，导致对豆油需求增加，预计豆油进口将增加60万t以上，期末库存与上年持平；豆粕供大于求矛盾突出，出口将增加到120万t。受国际市场油料减产的影响，2002年4月份以来国际国内大豆价格不断攀升，9月份前后回落，10月中旬止跌回升，但12月份国内价格涨幅更大，国内外大豆价差逐渐缩小，国产大豆竞争力减弱。预计2003年3月份国内大豆价格将回调，大豆生产和出口都将增加。建议油脂加工企业不要盲目扩建新厂，加强转基因生物安全标识管理。     

2000／01年度美国大豆供给增加

今年春天美国大多数州大豆的种植速度加快,如果不出现严重的干旱情况,全国大豆平均单产估计将达40蒲式耳/英亩(合2676kg/hm~2)。除了春季种植进度加快的原因外,种植地区的变化也将提高大豆的单产。本年度大豆面积净增70万英亩(合28.35万hm~2),达到7390万英亩(合2992.95万hm~2),由于创纪录的收获面积以及40蒲式耳/英亩(2676kg/hm~2)的单产,美国大豆的产量将大大增加。预计总产量为29.55亿蒲式耳(合8008万t),比1998年多544万t。 国外油籽生产增长放慢以及美国大豆低廉     

阳春市水果业发展现状与对策

发展现状 规模较大2004年，广东省阳春市水果种植总面积为3．26万hm^2。投产面积2．1万hm^2．总产量13．4万t。总产值4．2亿元．占种植业总产值的30％。占农业总产值的8．2％。其中。柑桔种植面积0．91万hm^2，产量4万t（其中，马水桔0．42万hm^2、1．6万t）；龙眼0．73hm^2．3万t：荔枝0．55万hm^2。1．7万t：香蕉0．2万hm^2，2．8万t；酸梅0．12万hm^2,     

2002～2003年度巴西大豆生产情况及预测

降雨的充足和肥料的广泛应用使巴西农民正企盼第四个大豆丰收季节的到来。美国农业部(USDA)近期资料显示,在2002～2003年度,巴西大豆产量将再创新高,达到5100万t,比上次的估计值增加了200万t,同时,较去年实际产量上涨了750万t(17％)。巴西大豆的单产在今年将达到2.83t/hm~2,比上年增长6.5％,并高出2000～2001年历史最高水平的1％。     

美国农业部预估2012年玉米种植面积为9690万公顷

荷兰拉博银行在一份报告中称，2013年美国玉米种植面积将增至9760万hm^2。美国农业部预估2012年玉米种植面积为9690万hm^2，但因严重旱灾，逾9％农田无法收获。银行在种植决策前表示，玉米或进一步取代大豆，预计下一季度价格更好。     

2005年我国柑桔生产形势预测

根据对各省（区、市）农业主管部门和主产区生长结果情况调查．2004年我国柑桔栽培面积已达162．7万hm^2（2440．5万亩），较2003年约增长8％：产量达1496万t．比2003年增长11．1％；产量和面积均仍然保持较高增长水平（见表1）。说明中国柑桔继续保持健康发展态势。其中，福建、浙江、     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1983

In late December 1983, 2 800 veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of heartworm disease in Canada in 1983 and 26% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 59 504 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 771 dogs (1.30% of those tested) were found with Dirofilaria immitis. Heartworm disease was diagnosed in all provinces except New Brunswick and Newfoundland but most (733) of the cases were in Ontario.

Heartworm disease was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 31% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 64% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continues to be the focus of the infection and most of the dogs there had not left the province previously.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1985

In late December 1985, 1485 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1985 and 44% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 137,300 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1210 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 36 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number diagnosed in 1985 as 1247 (0.91%).

Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan but most (1126) of the cases were in Ontario. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. From Quebec, 91 cases were reported mostly from and around Montreal. From Manitoba, 19 cases were reported from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 28% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 78% had a history of not having left Canada.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1988

In late November 1988, 1581 small and mixed animal clinics and institutional veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1988, and 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 181,577 dogs were blood-tested for heartworm disease and 367 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 60 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1988 as 441 (0.24%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1984

In late December 1984, 1853 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1984 and 35% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 97,794 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1417 dogs (1.45% of those tested) were found with heartworm. Another 34 dogs were amicrofilaremic, but were diagnosed as having heartworm disease, to give the total number diagnosed in 1984 as 1451 (1.48%). Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland but most (1310) of the cases were in Ontario. In Quebec, 126 cases were reported mostly from west of Montreal.

Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 27% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 72% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1991

In late November 1991, 1883 clinics in Canada were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in dogs in 1991 and there was a 60.0% response. There were 344,031 dogs tested for heart-worm (HW), 627 were found infected and the prevalence of HW infection was 0.18%. There were 417 dogs with HW in Ontario, 116 in Manitoba, 38 in Quebec, 53 in British Columbia, three in Alberta, and one in Nova Scotia. In British Columbia, all of the infected dogs but one were from the Okanagan valley which, as from 1991, is a new focus of infection in Canada. Most dogs with HW had not been on preventive medication in 1990, and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 0.59%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Companion dogs, over three years of age and maintained primarily outdoors in rural areas, were most frequently infected. One cat was diagnosed with D. immitis and 33 dogs had Dipetalonema reconditium.     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1989

In late November 1989, 1732 clinics and institutional veterinarians were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis, and 51.7% responded. Of 247,716 dogs tested, 394 had D. immitis microfilariae and 51 were amicrofilaremic for a total of 445 cases and heartworm prevalence of 0.17%. Most (408) of these dogs had no preventive medication and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 1.01%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Thirty-seven dogs with heartworm had preventive medication. Heartworm was most frequent in companion dogs over three years of age maintained outdoors in rural areas. About 75% of the cases had never left Canada, 26% had clinical signs and 125 were not treated.

Heartworm was reported from British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but 383 cases were in Ontario. South-western Ontario was the primary focus of infection. There were 33 cases in Quebec and 24 in Manitoba, mainly found in and around Metropolitan Montreal and Winnipeg respectively.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1987

In late November 1987, 1246 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1987, and 50% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 165,428 dogs were blood tested for heartworm disease and 511 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 78 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1987 as 589 (0.35%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1986

In late December 1986, 1224 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1986; 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 150,989 dogs were blood-tested for microfilariae and 869 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 65 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease and one was found with heartworm at necropsy to give the total number diagnosed in 1986 as 935 (0.62%).

Heartworm was reported from Manitoba, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec, but most (810) of the cases were from Ontario. South-western Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. There were 103 cases reported from Quebec, mostly from and around Montreal, and 21 cases from Manitoba, from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 33% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 81% had a history of not having left Canada.