Modeling the dynamics of backyard chicken flows in traditional trade networks in Thailand: implications for surveillance and control of avian influenza

In Southeast Asia, traditional poultry marketing chains have been threatened by epidemics caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) virus. In Thailand, the trade of live backyard chickens is based on the activities of traders buying chickens from villages and supplying urban markets with chicken meat. This study aims to quantify the flows of chickens traded during a 1-year period in a province of Thailand. A compartmental stochastic dynamic model was constructed to illustrate trade flows of live chickens from villages to slaughterhouses. Live poultry movements present important temporal variations with increased activities during the 15 days preceding the Chinese New Year and, to a lesser extent, other festivals (Qingming Festival, Thai New Year, Hungry Ghost Festival, and International New Year). The average distance of poultry movements ranges from 4 to 25 km, defining a spatial scale for the risk of avian influenza that spread through traditional poultry marketing chains. Some characteristics of traditional poultry networks in Thailand, such as overlapping chicken supply zones, may facilitate disease diffusion over longer distances through combined expansion and relocation processes. This information may be of use in tailoring avian influenza and other emerging infectious poultry disease surveillance and control programs provided that the cost-effectiveness of such scenarios is also evaluated in further studies.     

Are the Australian poultry industries vulnerable to large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza?

Objective   To describe the structure of the Australian poultry industry and discuss the potential for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to spread between Australian poultry farms.
Procedure   High densities of poultry farms, frequent contacts between farms by service providers, the supply of live poultry markets (LPM) and the presence of free-range duck flocks in affected regions have been identified as risk factors for the spread of HPAI between flocks in outbreaks causing the death or destruction of over 1 million poultry overseas. Data on 1,594 commercial Australian chicken meat, chicken egg, duck and turkey farms were collected by a telephone questionnaire of farm managers to assess the risk of a HPAI outbreak in Australia.
Results and Discussion   Five regions of Australia had farm densities comparable to overseas regions that experienced widespread HPAI. Common service providers routinely contacted different classes and types of farms over wide geographic areas. However, no responding farms supplied LPM and the majority of duck farms did not produce free-range ducks.
Conclusion   Outbreaks of HPAI have the potential to cause serious impacts on the Australian poultry industry. The risk posted by LPM and free-range ducks is limited, but the movement of genetic stock and common service providers could spread infection between companies, industries or geographical regions. Biosecurity measures are therefore considered critical to limit the secondary spread of infection should an outbreak occur.     

The role of backyard poultry flocks in the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003

In recent years, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have caused the death of millions of poultry and of more than 200 humans worldwide. A proper understanding of the transmission dynamics and risk factors for epidemic spread of these viruses is key to devising effective control strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the epidemiological contributions of backyard flocks using data from the H7N7 HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003. A dataset was constructed in which flocks in the affected area were classified as susceptible (S), infected but not yet infectious (E), infectious (I), and removed (R). The analyses were based on a two-type SEIR epidemic model, with the two types representing commercial poultry farms and backyard poultry flocks. The analyses were aimed at estimation of the susceptibility (g) and infectiousness (f) of backyard flocks relative to commercial farms. The results show that backyard flocks were considerably less susceptible to infection than commercial farms (), while estimates of the relative infectiousness of backyard flocks varied widely (). Our results indicate that, from an epidemiological perspective, backyard flocks played a marginal role in the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the Netherlands in 2003.     

Metapopulation dynamics and determinants of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Indonesian poultry

In 2008, the Indonesian Government implemented a revised village-level Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response (PDSR) program to gain a better understanding of both the magnitude and spatial distribution of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in backyard poultry. To date, there has been considerable collection of data, but limited publically available analysis. This study utilizes data collected by the PDSR program between April 2008 and September 2010 for Java, Bali and the Lampung Province of Sumatra. The analysis employs hierarchical Bayesian occurrence models to quantify spatial and temporal dynamics in backyard HPAI infection reports at the District level in 90 day time periods, and relates the probability of HPAI occurrence to PDSR-reported village HPAI infection status and human and poultry density. The probability of infection in a District was assumed to be dependent on the status of the District in the previous 90 day time period, and described by either a colonization probability (the probability of HPAI infection in a District given there had not been infection in the previous 90 day time period) or a persistence probability (the probability of HPAI infection being maintained in the District from the previous to current 90 day period). Results suggest that the number of surveillance activities in a district had little relationship to outbreak occurrence probabilities, but human and poultry densities were found to have non-linear relationships to outbreak occurrence probabilities. We found significant spatial dependency among neighboring districts, indicating that there are latent spatial processes that are not captured by the covariates available for this study, but which nonetheless impact outbreak dynamics. The results of this work may help improve understanding of the seasonal nature of H5N1 in poultry and the potential role of poultry density in enabling endemicity to occur, as well as to assist the Government of Indonesia target scarce resources to regions and time periods when outbreaks of HPAI in poultry are most likely to occur.     

Serological evidence of avian influenza virus subtype H5 and H9 in live bird market,Myanmar

Avian Influenza (AI), caused by Alphainfluenzaviruses (AIVs), is a contagious respiratory disease in birds and mammals. AIVs have been reported in poultry worldwide and the impact of AIVs on human health is immense. In this study, a serological survey of AIV subtype H5 and H9 was conducted in a live bird market (LBM) in Yangon, Myanmar during February 2016 to September 2016. A total of 621 serum samples were collected from chickens (n = 489) and ducks (n = 132) from 48 vendors in the LBM. The samples were examined for antibodies against influenza viruses by using NP-ELISA and specific antibodies against AIV-H5N1 (Clade 2.3.4) and AIV-H9N2 (Clade 9.4.2) by using Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) assay. The result of NP-ELISA assay showed that 12.88 % (80/621) of poultry in LBM was positive for AIV antibodies. In detail, 38.06 % (51/134) of layers, 7.08 % (8/113) of backyard chicken, 2.07 % (5/242) of broilers and 12.12 % (16/132) of ducks were AIV positive. The HI test for specific antibodies against AIV-H5N1 and AIV-H9N2 were 1.77 % (11/621) and 4.51 % (28/621), respectively. Our findings revealed the evidence of AIV-H5N1 and AIV-H9N2 exposure in both chicken and ducks in the LBM in Yangon, Myanmar. Risks of influenza infections and transmission among poultry and humans in the LBMs could not be ignored.     

浙江省引起高致病性禽流感暴发流行的风险因子调查与分析

为明确浙江省高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生的风险水平,我们开展了相关风险因子调查和分析工作.本研究将风险因子等级分为高、较高、中和低4个风险等级,对母源抗体、免疫抗体、家禽密度、饲养设施、禽类混养、饲养场地理位置、水禽和迁徙鸟、活禽市场等风险因子进行了定量评估.通过权重赋值评估浙江省发生的HPAI的风险水平为0.66875,判定为中等,提示浙江省发生禽流感疫情的可能性时刻存在.通过风险因子分析,发现了高致病禽流感防控工作中存在的薄弱环节,明确今后工作的重点,为浙江省HPAI管理和决策提供了依据.     

Questionnaire study and postmortem findings in backyard chicken flocks in Finland

Background

Although modern commercial poultry production today is based on large farms and intensive husbandry, keeping backyard poultry has regained popularity in industrialized countries. However, the health status of backyard flocks is still relatively poorly documented. A questionnaire was sent to the owners of 376 backyard poultry flocks (<500 birds) in order to study health management procedures and characterize backyard poultry populations in Finland. Information was also collected on the postmortem findings from non-commercial flocks using necropsy data from the Finnish Food Safety Authority (Evira).

Results

Backyard flocks in Finland are small in size (<50 birds), comprising mainly chickens. Based on the results of the questionnaire, the health of such flocks is good, mortality low and vaccinations are not commonly used. Most of the flocks were registered in the national poultry register. The standard biosecurity practices are not generally applied and contact with wild birds, pets and farm animals is frequent, which can make the flocks more prone to infectious diseases. We conducted an 11-year retrospective study of the postmortem necropsy findings of the Evira in order to document the diseases, which caused mortality in backyard chickens in Finland. Necropsy was performed on a total of 132 non-commercial laying hens during 2000 – 2011. The most common postmortem findings were Marek’s disease (27%) and colibacillosis (17%).

Conclusions

This study is the first to report data on characteristics of and management practices for backyard chicken flocks in Finland. Close connections with commercial flocks are rare and farms are usually distantly located suggesting that the risk that these backyard flocks pose to commercial poultry is low.     

中国禽群高致病性禽流感发生状况及其风险预测

本研究旨在探讨中国高致病性禽流感的发生状况,并对其风险态势进行尝试性的预测。作者在流行病学数据挖掘和模型分析基础上,基于OIE风险评估理论,结合昆虫生态学格局分析和Bernoulli统计模型,对中国2004年以来高致病性禽流感的发生状况及其风险态势进行了分析和预测。结果显示:(1)中国家禽养殖数量大,养殖模式复杂,种类繁多,养殖的区域特征显著,给中国HPAI的防控带来了挑战;(2)中国自2004年发生HPAI以来,疫情发生的时-空连续性强,突出表现在疫情发生的季节、区域和宿主特征明显,提示科学的区域化管理和协作的重要性;(3)在发展态势上,由于区域周边疫情特点和中国禽群养殖及风险管理状况,使得中国局部地区禽群在相当长的一段时间内存在较大的暴露和感染的风险;(4)风险预测上,利用Bernoulli统计模型和信息技术,预测2008年中国禽群在90%的置信区间内最有可能会有2～10起HPAI疫情发生,发生6起左右的高致病性禽流感疫情可能性较大,其中在中国东南部分地区局部区域禽群具有较高的疫情暴露和发生风险。本研究表明中国禽群持续发生HPAI疫情的可能性大,开展基于风险的区划和管理对疫情发生和控制具有积极意义。     

Identification of risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus infection in poultry farms, in Nigeria during the epidemic of 2006-2007

We conducted a matched case-control study to evaluate risk factors for infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in poultry farms during the epidemic of 2006-2007 in Nigeria. Epidemiologic data were collected through the use of a questionnaire from 32 case farms and 83 control farms. The frequency of investigated exposure factors was compared between case and control farms by using conditional logistic regression analysis. In the multivariable analysis, the variables for (i) receiving visitors on farm premises (odds ratio [OR]=8.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.87, 36.97; P<0.01), (ii) purchased live poultry/products (OR=11.91; 95% CI=3.11-45.59; P<0.01), and (iii) farm workers live outside the premises (OR=8.98; 95% CI=1.97, 40.77; P<0.01) were identified as risk factors for HPAI in poultry farms. Improving farm hygiene and biosecurity should help reduce the risk for influenza (H5N1) infection in poultry farms in Nigeria.     

Assessing the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 transmission through poultry movements in Bali,Indonesia

Indonesia continues to report the highest number of human and poultry cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. The disease is considered to be endemic on the island of Bali. Live bird markets are integral in the poultry supply chain on Bali and are important, nutritionally and culturally, for the rural and urban human populations. Due to the lack of biosecurity practiced along the supply chain from producer to live bird markets, there is a need to understand the risks associated with the spread of H5N1 through live bird movements for effective control. Resources to control H5N1 in Indonesia are very limited and cost effective strategies are needed. We assessed the probability a live bird market is infected through live poultry movements and assessed the effects of implementing two simple and low cost control measures on this risk. Results suggest there is a high risk a live bird market is infected (0.78), and risk mitigation strategies such as detecting and removing infected poultry from markets reduce this risk somewhat (range 0.67–0.76). The study demonstrates the key role live poultry movements play in transmitting H5N1 and the need to implement a variety of control measures to reduce disease spread.     

Pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of H5N1 subtype isolated in Thailand for different poultry species

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype have caused several rounds of outbreaks in Thailand. In this study, we used 3 HPAI viruses isolated in Thailand in January 2004 from chicken, quail, and duck for genetic and pathogenetic studies. Sequence analysis of the entire genomes of these isolates revealed that they were genetically similar to each other. Chickens, quails, domestic ducks, and cross-bred ducks were inoculated with these isolates to evaluate their pathogenicity to different host species. A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/04 (H5N1), an HPAI virus isolated in Japan, was also used in the chicken and quail studies for comparison. All four isolates were shown to be highly pathogenic to chickens and quails, with 100% mortality by 10(6) EID50 inoculants of the viruses. They caused sudden death in chickens and quails within 2-4 days after inoculation. The mean death times (MDT) of quails infected with the Thai isolates were shorter than those of chickens infected with the same isolates. Mortality against domestic and cross-bred ducks ranged from 50 to 75% by intranasal inoculation with the 10(6) EID50 viruses. Neurological symptoms were observed in most of the inoculated domestic ducks and appeared less severe in the cross-bred ducks. The MDTs of the ducks infected with the Thai isolates were 4.8-6 days post-inoculation. Most of the surviving ducks infected with the Thai isolates had sero-converted until 14 dpi. Our study illustrated the pathobiology of the Thai isolates against different poultry species and would provide useful information for improving control strategies against HPAI.     

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.     

Effect of species,breed and route of virus inoculation on the pathogenicity of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza (HPAI) viruses in domestic ducks

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses continue to be a threat to poultry in many regions of the world. Domestic ducks have been recognized as one of the primary factors in the spread of H5N1 HPAI. In this study we examined the pathogenicity of H5N1 HPAI viruses in different species and breeds of domestic ducks and the effect of route of virus inoculation on the outcome of infection. We determined that the pathogenicity of H5N1 HPAI viruses varies between the two common farmed duck species, with Muscovy ducks (Cairina moschata) presenting more severe disease than various breeds of Anas platyrhynchos var. domestica ducks including Pekin, Mallard-type, Black Runners, Rouen, and Khaki Campbell ducks. We also found that Pekin and Muscovy ducks inoculated with two H5N1 HPAI viruses of different virulence, given by any one of three routes (intranasal, intracloacal, or intraocular), became infected with the viruses. Regardless of the route of inoculation, the outcome of infection was similar for each species but depended on the virulence of the virus used. Muscovy ducks showed more severe clinical signs and higher mortality than the Pekin ducks. In conclusion, domestic ducks are susceptible to H5N1 HPAI virus infection by different routes of exposure, but the presentation of the disease varied by virus strain and duck species. This information helps support the planning and implementation of H5N1 HPAI surveillance and control measures in countries with large domestic duck populations.     

Influenza A viruses in birds and humans: Prevalence,molecular characterization,zoonotic significance and risk factors' assessment in poultry farms

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of influenza A viruses in birds and humans residing in the same localities of Sharkia Province, Egypt and the risk factors' assessment in poultry farms. A total of 100 birds comprised of 50 chickens, 25 ducks and 25 wild egrets were sampled. Swab samples were collected from 65 people (50 poultry farm workers and 15 hospitalized patients). All samples were screened for the presence of influenza A viruses using isolation and molecular assays. Avian influenza viruses were only detected in chicken samples (18%) and molecularly confirmed as subtype H5. The infection rate was higher in broilers (40%) than layers (8.6%). Influenza A (H1) pdm09 virus was detected in a single human case (1.54%). All the isolated AI H5 viruses were clustered into clade (2.2.1.2) and shared a high similarity rate at nucleotides and amino acid levels. In addition, they had a multi-basic amino acid motif (ـــPQGEKRRKKR/GLFـــ) at the H5 gene cleavage site that exhibited point mutations. Chicken breed, movement of workers from one flock to another, lack of utensils' disinfection and the introduction of new birds to the farm were significant risk factors associated with highly pathogenic AI H5 virus infection in poultry farms (p ≤ 0.05). Other factors showed no significant association. The HPAI H5 viruses are still endemic in Egypt with continuous mutation. Co-circulation of these viruses in birds and pdm09 viruses in humans raises alarm for the emergence of reassortant viruses that are capable of potentiating pandemics.     

Different routes of inoculation impact infectivity and pathogenesis of H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus infection in chickens and domestic ducks

The H5N1 type A influenza viruses classified as Qinghai-like virus (clade 2.2) are a unique lineage of type A influenza viruses with the capacity to produce significant disease and mortality in gallinaceous and anseriform birds, including domestic and wild ducks. The objective of this study was to determine the susceptibility and pathogenesis of chickens and domestic ducks to A/Whooper Swan/Mongolia/224/05 (H5N1) high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus when administered through respiratory or alimentary routes of exposure. The chickens and ducks were more susceptible to the H5N1 HPAI virus, as evidenced by low infectious and lethal viral doses, when exposed by intranasal as compared to alimentary routes of inoculation (intragastric or oral-fed infected chicken meat). In the alimentary exposure pathogenesis study, pathologic changes included hemorrhage, necrosis, and inflammation in association with virus detection. These changes were generally observed in most of the visceral organs of chickens, between 2 and 4 days postinoculation (DPI), and are similar to lesions and virus localization seen in birds in natural cases or in experimental studies using the intranasal route. Alimentary exposure to the virus caused systemic infection in the ducks, characterized by moderate lymphocytic encephalitis, necrotized hepatitis, and pancreatitis with a corresponding demonstration of virus within the lesions. In both chickens and ducks with alimentary exposure, lesions, virus, or both were first demonstrated in the upper alimentary tract on 1 DPI, suggesting that the alimentary tract was the initial site affected upon consumption of infected meat or on gavage of virus in liquid medium. However, as demonstrated in the infectivity study in chickens, alimentary infection required higher exposure doses to produce infection as compared to intranasal exposure in chickens. These data suggest that upper respiratory exposure to H5N1 HPAI virus in birds is more likely to result in virus infection and transmission than will consumption of infected meat, unless the latter contains high doses of virus, as found in cannibalized infected carcasses.