Climate change impacts,adaptive capacity,and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems

This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are summarized for the Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, Mediterranean, and mountainous regions. Especially in northern and western Europe the increasing atmospheric CO₂ content and warmer temperatures are expected to result in positive effects on forest growth and wood production, at least in the short–medium term. On the other hand, increasing drought and disturbance risks will cause adverse effects. These negative impacts are very likely to outweigh positive trends in southern and eastern Europe. From west to east, the drought risk increases. In the Mediterranean regions productivity is expected to decline due to strongly increased droughts and fire risks.     

Effects of climate change on typical forests in northeastern China

By using the forest gap model-FAREAST, we simulated the effects of future climate change on forest composition and forest biomass of typical forests in northeastern China. We selected three different climate change scenarios, developed from GCMs results, of the ECHAM5-OM and HadCM3 models: the current climate, a warmer climate and a state of changing precipitation with higher temperatures. The results are as follows: if the climate does not change, the composition and forest biomass of the northeastern forests will retain their dynamic balance. A warmer climate is detrimental to the major forest types in the northeast. The percentage of major conifers is expected to decrease, along with a proportional increase of some broad-leafed species. The southern treeline of the mixed broad-leafed tree species/Korean pine forest in the temperate zone will tend to move northward. The warmer the climate, the more distinct the transition. If, furthermore, we were to take account of rainfall, the treeline in the northeast will tend to move northward. Rainfall seems to have little effect on the mixed broad-leafed tree species/Korean pine forests in the temperate zone.     

Growth responses of West-Mediterranean Pinus nigra to climate change are modulated by competition and productivity: Past trends and future perspectives

Positive and negative effects of climate change on forest growth have been observed in different parts of the world. However, much is still unknown about how forest structure and productivity might affect climate-growth relationships in the future. We examined the effects of climate, site quality, and competition on tree basal area growth of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) between 1964 and 2005 in 21 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. We used a new approach to simultaneously account for climate-growth relationships, inter-annual growth variability, and stand structural changes, by fitting a linear mixed effects model (LMEM) for basal area increments (BAI) using climate data, tree-ring chronologies, and repeated forest inventory data. This approach showed the potential to improve our understanding of climate effects on tree growth and to include climate in empirical forest growth models. We used the LMEM to make projections of BAI growth under two CO₂ emission scenarios and two global circulation models (GCM). The main climate drivers for growth were precipitation from previous autumn to summer and winter temperature with a positive effect, and temperature in spring-summer which had a negative effect. Tree response to climate was modulated by stand conditions, tree competition, and productivity. The more productive stands showed greater ability to either maintain or increase growth at warmer spring-summer temperatures under different levels of autumn-summer precipitation. Growth projections showed important regional differences. In general, growth under future climate is predicted to decrease although moderate growth increases might be expected in the northern region for highly and moderately productive stands.     

Tree-rings reflect the impact of climate change on Quercus ilex L. along a temperature gradient in Spain over the last 100 years

We analyzed tree rings over the past 100 years to understand the response of Quercus ilex L. to climate change at four different sites along a temperature gradient in a highly anthropogenically transformed ecosystem. To test the hypothesis of a climate change related decrease in productivity at warmer sites, we discuss the effect of historical management on the growth of forest stands and the spatio-temporal variability of growth in response to climate, analyzing departures from linearity in that relationship. We reconstructed stand history and investigated past growth trends using tree-rings. Then we used a dendroecological approach to study the regional, local and age-dependent response to climate, analyzing the relationship between precipitation and tree growth using non-linear mixed models. Tree rings reflected the origin of the studied landscape, mainly a simplification of an original closed forest and progressive canopy opening for agrosilvopastoral purposes after the mid 1800s. As expected, trees were principally responding to water availability, and regional growth (as expressed by the first principal component from the matrix of chronologies) was highly responsive to hydrological year precipitation (r = 0.7). In this water limited ecosystem, the response of growth to precipitation was asymptotic and independent of age, but variable in time. Maximum growth was variable at the different sites and the non-linear function of growth saturated (i.e. reached an asymptote) at temperature dependent site specific precipitation levels within the range considered in the region to lead a shift towards deciduous species dominated woodlands (around 600 mm, variable with mean temperature). Only trees at warmer sites showed symptoms of growth decline, most likely explained by water stress increase in the last decades affecting the highly transformed open (i.e. low competition) tree structure. Stands at colder locations did not show any negative growth trend and may benefit from the current increase in winter temperatures. Coinciding with the decrease in productivity, trees at warmer sites responded more to moisture availability, exhibited a slower response to precipitation and reached maximum growth at higher precipitation levels than trees at colder sites. This suggests that warmer stands are threatened by climate change. The non-linear response of growth to precipitation described is meaningful for different ecological applications and provides new insights in the way trees respond to climate.     

Should we respect the historical reference as basis for the objective of forest restoration? A case study from Northeastern China

Under climate change, the adoption of historical reference as the objective of forest restoration is being questioned. In this study, the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to analyze how the forest landscape in the upper Hun River area of Liaoning province in northeast China would be affected under current climate trends and future climate change; and to explore whether the historical reference should be the objective of restoration efforts. The results showed that (1) the area percentage (AP) of Quercusmongolica under climate change is always higher than that under the current climate regime, while the AP of Pinuskoraiensis is lower than that under current climate; and (2) the competitive ability of Q. mongolica and Populus davidiana increases, while that of other species decreases under climate change. As interspecies competition shifts under climate change, the historical reference appears in appropriate to serve as the objective of forest restoration. In addition, although Q. mongolica would likely benefit from a warmer and drier climate, use of this species for forest restoration under climate change still requires further research.     

Modelling the effects of climate change and timber harvest on the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

Context

Understanding the range of possible climate change impacts on forests and the interactions between them is vital to sustainable forest management.

Aims

We examine whether the combined influence of climate change and timber harvest will affect tree species distribution and productivity beyond predictions based on climate alone.

Methods

We used the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II to simulate two climate and two harvest scenarios in 14,000 ha of managed watersheds.

Results

The elevated temperature led to a decline in the abundance of boreal species and a substantial increase in some temperate and pioneer species. Importantly, the interaction of climate change and timber harvest yielded changes in the distribution of some species that would not be expected based on climate alone. Conversely, some late-successional species exhibited resistance to climate-driven changes in their distribution. Climate change caused an increase in forest productivity when harvest was simulated, but a decrease in no-harvest scenarios. A time lag in forest response was likely responsible for this decrease in the absence of widespread mortality.

Conclusions

The finding that disturbance may drive the range expansion of early-successional broadleaved species and cause a decline of red spruce has implications for forest community associations, as well as for forest management where conifers are favoured for pulp production.     

Current status and predicted impact of climate change on forest production and biogeochemistry in the temperate oceanic European zone: review and prospects for Belgium as a case study

Reviews of the current statuses of forests and the impacts of climate change on forests exist at the (sub)continental scale, but rarely at country and regional levels, meaning that information on causal factors, their impacts, and specific regional properties is often inconsistent and lacking in depth. Here, we present the current status of forest production and biogeochemistry and the expected impacts of climate change on them for Belgium. This work represents a case study for the temperate oceanic zone, the most important bioclimatic zone in northwestern Europe. Results show that Belgian forests are mainly young, very productive, and have a high C-sequestration capacity. Major negative anomalies in tree vitality were observed in the 1990s and—as result of disturbances—in the last decade for sensitive species as poplars and European beech. The most severe disturbances were caused by extreme climatic events, directly (e.g. storms) or indirectly (e.g. insect outbreaks after a mild autumn with an early/severe frost). Because of atmospheric deposition and soil fertilization (due to the previous use of the land), nutrient stocks of Belgian forests are likely to sustain the future enhancement in productivity which is expected to follow the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration that will occur in years to come. However, in the long term, such (enhanced) forest production is likely to be limited by nutrient deficiencies at poor sites and by drought for sensitive species such as beech and (particularly) Norway spruce. Drought conditions will likely increase in the future, but adverse effects are expected on a relatively limited number of tree species. The potential impacts of windstorms, insects and fungi should be carefully investigated, whereas fires are less of a concern.     

Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

Population dynamics of tree species in southern Quebec,Canada: 1970–2005

Over the last few decades, several phenomena contributed to modify the structure and composition of the eastern North American forests. Along with forest management, disturbances such as insect defoliation, global environmental changes, acid deposition, and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, have been identified as phenomena that could affect forest structure and composition. Currently, there is very little quantitative information on the resulting effect of multiple disturbances on the main parameters of forest dynamics (growth, mortality, and recruitment). Using available data from the Quebec permanent sample plots network, we analyzed the ecological response of tree species populations to the combined effect of contemporary global environmental changes, disturbance regimes, and forest management practices over the last 30 years in southern Quebec. The results indicate that the main parameters of forest dynamics changed considerably over the last three decades. The last spruce budworm outbreak initiated a successional change in coniferous stands. The basal area of Abies balsamea and Picea glauca, the most abundant coniferous species, decreased by 29.7%, while pioneer species abundance increased. For late successional deciduous species, observed changes in forest dynamics appear to be mainly associated with global environmental changes rather than with natural disturbances or forest harvesting. The results indicate that inferring responses of tree population dynamics to global environmental changes can be very complex or even misleading considering the confounding effects of other disturbance agents. The results also suggest that the ecosystem-based management approach promoted by forest ecologists, aimed at maintaining landscape stand composition and structures similar to those characterizing natural environments, will not be easily achieved. Forest ecosystems are highly dynamic and disturbances other than tree harvesting appear to have been the major factors affecting their pattern of change over the last three decades. Forest managers should consider adaptive management approaches that will consider the contemporary evolution of forest ecosystems in a changing environment.     

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker's risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as species conversion, species mixture or reduction of target diameter can be taken. This simulation study of three silvicultural scenarios and three climate runs spans a decision space of potential forest development to be used for decision making. Which adaptation measures to counteract climate induced risks and uncertainty are to be taken is,however, a matter of individual risk attitude.     

CO_2和O_3浓度升高对森林生态系统影响的研究进展

系统收集和整理了国内外关于CO2和O3复合胁迫对森林影响的研究,从两者的复合胁迫对森林树木的光合作用、地上部分生长、根系生长、土壤环境、种间竞争的影响等方面进行了阐述,并对该领域有待深入研究的方向进行了展望;提出应深入开展对植物地下水平和分子水平的研究,为解决全球气候变化对森林造成的影响提供借鉴,同时为生态系统的管理提供依据。     

Modeling the effects of climate change and management on the dead wood dynamics in boreal forest plantations

The present research examines the joint effects of climate change and management on the dead wood dynamics of the main tree species of the Finnish boreal forests via a forest ecosystem simulator. Tree processes are analyzed in stands subject to multiple biotic and abiotic environmental factors. A special focus is on the implications for biodiversity conservation thereof. Our results predict that in boreal forests, climate change will speed up tree growth and accumulation ending up in a higher stock of dead wood available as habitat for forest-dwelling species, but the accumulation processes will be much smaller in the working landscape than in set-asides. Increased decomposition rates driven by climate change for silver birch and Norway spruce will likely reduce the time the dead wood stock is available for dead wood-associated species. While for silver birch, the decomposition rate will be further increased in set-aside in relation to stands under ordinary management, for Norway spruce, set-asides can counterbalance the enhanced decomposition rate due to climate change thereby permitting a longer persistence of different decay stages of dead wood.     

Quantifying height growth and monthly growing degree days relationship of plantation Taiwan spruce

The future of the endemic Taiwan spruce (Picea morrisonicola) under climate change is of great concern. It is the southernmost species of the genus and its current distribution is limited to high altitudes of Taiwan. As a first step toward assessing the impact of future temperature changes on the species, we quantified the effects of past monthly growing degree days (GDD) on the height growth of plantation Taiwan spruce based on nonlinear mixed-effects growth analysis. Our results showed that past GDD variations had both positive and negative effects on the height growth of the species. July of the preceding year had the greatest influence on current year height growth. An increase in the mean GDD level of the current May would also promote height growth. In contrast, a warmer previous November or current January had negative effects on height growth. If the established height growth–GDD relationship holds, the influences of climate change on Taiwan spruce height growth will depend on the timing of the temperature increases, as well as on the trees current growth stages. Our results suggested that a warmer climate would have a greater influence on trees that are still in the early stages along the height growth trajectory. The established height growth–GDD relationship will be a keystone for developing models assessing how Taiwan spruce responds to climate change.     

Silvicultural treatments enhance growth rates of future crop trees in a tropical dry forest

Silvicultural treatments are often needed in selectively logged tropical forest to enhance the growth rates of many commercial tree species and, consequently, for recovering a larger proportion of the initial volume harvested over the next cutting cycle. The available data in the literature suggest, however, that the effect of silvicultural treatments on tree growth is smaller in dry forests than in humid forest tree species. In this study, we analyze the effect of logging and application of additional silvicultural treatments (liana cutting and girdling of competing trees) on the growth rates of future crop trees (FCTs; i.e., trees of current and potentially commercial timber species with adequate form and apparent growth potential). The study was carried out in a tropical dry forest in Bolivia where a set of 21.25-ha plots were monitored for 4 years post-logging. Plots received one of four treatments that varied in intensity of both logging and silvicultural treatments as follows: normal (reduced-impact) logging; normal logging and low-intensity silviculture; increased logging intensity and high-intensity silviculture; and, unlogged controls. The silvicultural treatments applied to FCTs involved liberation from lianas and overtopping trees. Results showed that rates of FCT stem diameter growth increased with light availability, logging intensity, and intensity of silvicultural treatments, and decrease with liana infestation degree. Growth rate increment was larger in the light and intensive silvicultural treatment (22–27%). Long-lived pioneer species showed the strongest response to intensive silviculture (50% increase) followed by total shade-tolerant species (24%) and partial shade-tolerant species (10%). While reduced-impact logging is often not sufficient to guarantee the sustainability of timber yields, application of silvicultural treatments that substantially enhanced the growth rates of FCTs will help move the management of these forests closer to the goal of sustained yield.     

Climate impacts on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) radial growth in a provenance experiment

A potentially confounding radial-growth interaction exists at the intersection of two well-known principles, one in the field of dendrochronology and the other in quantitative genetics. From a dendrochronology perspective, tree populations growing in climatically marginal environments are expected to be more sensitive to seasonal and annual climate than those growing in optimal climate zones. From a genetics perspective, marginal populations may be adapted to grow a small amount each year and then shut down to prevent climate-induced mortality, or they may be adapted to respond to favourable climate conditions when available. We examined the relative strength of these forces using data from 12 populations of 34-year-old lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees growing in 16 provenance-trial sites in western Canada. Growth generally correlated positively with annual temperature and negatively with summer aridity. The sensitivity of radial-growth to interannual climate fluctuations was both site and provenance-related, with the highest sensitivities occurring among populations from warm, central provenances growing at cold, marginal sites, and among populations from cold, marginal provenances growing at warm, central sites. The correlations between climate and growth varied regionally; notably, populations from warm provenances growing at warm sites responded more strongly to summer aridity, while populations from cold provenances growing at warm sites responded more to annual temperature. Our finding that sensitivity varied among populations growing under similar climate conditions indicates that sensitivity is influenced by genetics as well as by site climate, but the regional specificity of the growth responses did not support a single hypothesis for the influence of genetics on growth among populations from marginal vs. central locations. Implications of our study for forest productivity under climate change are more positive for trees growing in cool locations, where overall warmer temperatures will lead to increased growth, than in warm locations, where the negative effects of arid summers may counteract the positive effects of warmer annual temperatures.     

Simulating the productivity of a subalpine forest at high elevations under representative concentration pathway scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

The current work adopted the Biome-BioGeochemical Cycle model to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of a subalpine forest (Picea crassifolia forest) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China. This study also investigated the responses of forest’s NPP to different combinations of climatic changes and CO₂ concentration increase. Results showed that (1) under the RCP scenarios, greater increases in temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ concentration caused larger increments in forest NPP; (2) the effect of CO₂ concentration (increased NPP from 19.9% to 21.7%) was more significant than that of climate change (increased NPP from 7.5% to 17.1%); (3) the simultaneous increments in climatic change and atmospheric CO₂ concentration led to a remarkable increase in P. crassifolia forest NPP (ranging from 33.1% to 41.3%), with the combination of the two exerting strong interactive effects on forest NPP; and (4) the response of the forest’s NPP to future global change was more intense at high elevations than at low ones, with the temperature being the main factor controlling forest NPP variation at the high-elevation regions. These valuable predictions can help clarify how subalpine forest ecosystems respond to simultaneous or independent changes in climate and CO₂ concentration.     

Mitigating fire risk to late-successional forest reserves on the east slope of the Washington Cascade Range, USA

A fire-risk model was developed using a stand-structure approach for the forests of the eastern slopes of the Washington Cascade Range, USA. The model was used to evaluate effects of seven landscape-scale silvicultural regimes on fire risk at two spatial scales: (1) the risk to the entire landscape; and (2) the risk to three reserve stands with stand structures associated with high conservation priorities (layered canopy, large trees, multiple species). A 1000 ha landscape was projected five decades for each management regime using an individual tree, distance-independent growth model. Results suggest that a variety of silvicultural approaches will reduce landscape fire risk; however, reserve stand fire risk is minimally decreased by thinning treatments to neighboring stands. Intensive fuel reduction through prescribed burning and selection of reserve stands in favorable topographic positions provide substantial fire risk reductions.     

Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: A review of consequences, concepts and challenges

With a predicted rise in average global surface temperature at an unprecedented rate, as well as changes in precipitation and disturbance regimes, climate change will bring forth new challenges for nature conservation in forest ecosystems. Species and habitats to be protected will be affected as well as related concepts and area specific objectives. Climate change impacts are likely to be aggravated by other anthropogenic stresses such as fragmentation, deposition or habitat destruction. To be reliable and effective, current objectives and guidelines of forest conservation need to be reassessed and improved. Our study analyses possible impacts of climate change on forests and identifies key future challenges for nature conservation in forests and ecosystem research. We reviewed 130 papers on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems and species published between 1995 and 2010. The geographical focus of the study is Central Europe. Papers were analysed accounting for direct and indirect impacts of gradual changes as well as stochastic disturbance events in forest ecosystems and their possible consequences for nature conservation.Even though broader aspects of nature conservation (protected areas, biodiversity) are frequently mentioned, little attention is given to forest-specific nature conservation. Particular aspects are insufficiently represented, such as the influence of climate change on different forest succession stages, the development of dead wood volume and quality, responses of secondary broadleaved species, azonal or extrazonal forests as well as ancient woodlands or remnants of historical silvicultural systems. Challenges arise in the context of great uncertainties about future developments. Nature conservation concepts and objectives in forests need to be adapted either within a permanent evaluation process or through the inclusion of further changes a priori, even if they are to some extent unpredictable. In some cases adaptation measures within nature conservation (e.g. adjusting protected areas) may conflict with interests of other stakeholders. Further research, particularly on interrelations between different impacts and the adaptive capacity of current forest ecosystems, associated species and existing genotypes is urgently needed. The scale and complexity of the task at hand calls for the establishment and further strengthening of international research networks.     

The impacts of climate change on potential natural vegetation distribution

Change in potential natural vegetation (PNV) distribution associated with climate change due to the doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (2×CO₂) was estimated with a global natural vegetation mapping system based on the modified Kira scheme to the globe and the continents. With an input of widely-distributed global climate data, the system interpolates data onto a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid over the globe, generates estimates of vegetation type, and produces a composite PNV map. The input climate data corresponding to the 1×CO₂ and 2×CO₂ consists of observations prior to AD 1958 at 2,001 weather stations worldwide and the 2×CO₂ simulation output from the Japan Meteorological Research Institue's General Circulation Model, respectively. As a result of the simulated global warming, the vegetation zones expanded mostly from the tropics toward the poles. PNV area changed by 6.98 billion (G) ha of the total land area (15.04 Gha) and potential forest area corresponding to the closed forest and open forest (woodland) reached 9.74 Gha with the increase of 1.29 Gha. The potential forest area in Europe had obvious advantages to the climate change accompanied with the increase of actual forest area. Although the actual forest area has decreased in North America and Asia, the potential forest area in these continents also benefitted from the climate change. In the end, the remaining continents tended to bear the brunt of the climate change.