Discrete spatial dynamics in a marine broadcast spawner: Re-evaluating scales of connectivity and habitat associations in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in coastal Newfoundland

We examined the spatial dynamics of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, through its life history on the northeast and southeast coasts of Newfoundland in order to delineate dispersal and critical habitat requirements as potential determinants of appropriate spatial scales for management. Hydroacoustic surveys across the northeast Newfoundland shelf in 1990, 1995, and 2000 showed the distribution of the remaining large aggregations of cod to be concentrated in inshore embayments, which is contrary to historic patterns. Inshore surveys on the south coast identified local spawning aggregations at specific geographic locations, to which adults homed in subsequent years. Dispersal of eggs and larvae to the offshore occurred during spring, but was localized (within bay) in the warm summer months. Abundance of age-0 cod increased with proximity to spawning location inshore, suggesting self-recruitment within local embayments. Age-2–3 juveniles actively selected structurally complex habitat at scales of less than tens of kilometers, with home ranges typically less than 10 ha. Juveniles were associated with specific habitat types, especially at age 0, in both lab and field experiments. Our results suggest that self-recruitment and critical life-history events (e.g., spawning, settlement, and maturity) may occur within local embayments, which currently assume much greater importance to overall cod stock dynamics than in the past. Given evidence for limited dispersal, and the inshore presence of critical habitat for early life-history stages, spatial management tools that consider local dynamics may provide a greater degree of protection for coastal Newfoundland cod than previously thought.     

Observations on larval fish transport and retention on the Scotian Shelf in relation to geostrophic circulation

We draw inferences about the dynamic processes responsible for the dispersal of ichthyoplankton on small marine banks using physical and biological data derived from static point-estimates of water-mass characteristics and ichthyoplankton collected concomitantly on the central Scotian Shelf. Where the density field evolves slowly and ageostrophic forcing is weak, the near-surface geostrophic flow can be derived from hydrographic data using the dynamic height method modified for shallow seas. We assess our interpretations of larval distributions using simple particle tracking. The hydrography of the Scotian Shelf during November of 1997 was typical of late autumn, when density is determined by surface variation in salinity. Surface isopycnals generally paralleled isobaths, and there was no evidence of strong surface fronts. Sizes of larvae of pelagic origin (e.g. cod and hake) on Western Bank (sole spawning source) increased and became skewed towards larger animals (cod, 3–10 mm; hake, 5–15 mm) in water-mass (Temperature and Salinity) space along isopycnals, consistent with gradual mixing and limited transport in the geostrophic flow (i.e. retention). Conversely, larvae of benthic origin (e.g. herring, 6–25 mm) were distributed across water-mass space, consistent with multiple origins and substantial transport. Our results indicate that dispersal from small, low-energy marine banks results from the interaction of spawning location, geostrophic currents and bathymetric steering, and requires neither convergence nor larval behaviour.     

The growth of larval cod and haddock in the Irish Sea: a model with temperature,prey size and turbulence forcing

We applied a physiological individual‐based model for the foraging and growth of cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, using observed temperature and prey fields data from the Irish Sea, collected during the 2006 spawning season. We used the model to estimate larval growth and survival and explore the different productivities of the cod and haddock stocks encountered in the Irish Sea. The larvae of both species showed similar responses to changes in environmental conditions (temperature, wind, prey availability, daylight hours) and better survival was predicted in the western Irish Sea, covering the spawning ground for haddock and about half of that for cod. Larval growth was predicted to be mostly prey‐limited, but exploration of stock recruitment data suggests that other factors are important to ensure successful recruitment. We suggest that the presence of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea, influencing the retention and/or dispersal of larvae from their spawning grounds, and the increasing abundance of clupeids adding predatory pressure on the eggs and larvae; both may play a key role. These two processes deserve more attention if we want to understand the mechanisms behind the recruitment of cod and haddock in the Irish Sea. For the ecosystem‐based management approach, there is a need to achieve a greater understanding of the interactions between species on the scale a fish stock is managed, and to work toward integrated fisheries management in particular when considering the effects of advection from spawning grounds and prey–predator reversal on the recovery of depleted stocks.     

Recent decline in cod stocks in the North Sea–Skagerrak–Kattegat shifts the sources of larval supply

Cod stocks in the North Sea, including the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, have declined dramatically since the 1970s. Occasionally there is a high recruitment of juveniles in Kattegat/Skagerrak, without leading to the rebuilding of adult cod stocks despite reduced fishing mortality. In a biophysical model of egg and larval drift, we examined the potential importance of extant and historical spawning grounds for recruitment of cod in the Kattegat/Skagerrak seas using data of spawning stock biomass from the 1970s and from today's reduced stocks. The results suggest that Kattegat in the 1970s relied on largely locally retained (83%) larvae with little annual variation in recruitment. Kattegat also provided a substantial proportion of larvae recruiting in Swedish Skagerrak (72%). This is in contrast to present conditions where the Kattegat spawning stock has been reduced by 94%, and Kattegat only provides 34% of locally retained larvae and 30% to Swedish Skagerrak. Instead, the protected area in the Öresund and the Belt Sea are expected today to provide most larvae recruiting in Kattegat. Also, the inflow of larvae from the North Sea to Skagerrak and Kattegat can be significant although highly variable between years, with a positive correlation to the North‐Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). The rebuilding of healthy spawning areas in the Kattegat may be key for restoring local cod stocks in both Kattegat and along the Skagerrak coast. This poses a management challenge if cod with local ‘Kattegat’ adaptations, e.g., in terms of egg density and migration patterns, are lost or reduced to non‐resilient densities.     

Effects of temperature, wind and spawning stock biomass on recruitment of Arcto-Norwegian cod

Sea temperature has earlier been shown to have a large influence on the recruitment of Arcto-Norwegian cod, Gadus morhua. We here hypothesize that this linkage is partly due to the direct effect of temperature on larval and juvenile growth. Secondly, temperature acts as a proxy for both biotic and abiotic factors influencing recruitment. Indices of abundance of early juvenile cod (2–3 months old), 0-group cod (4–5 months old) and 3-year-old cod are analysed in more detail against the environmental temperature, wind stress components, wind-induced turbulent energy and the spawning stock biomass. To deal with autocorrelation, non-stationar-time and nun-normality, which complicate a statistical time series analysis, randomization and Box-Jenkins methods are applied. In addition to the important effect of high sea temperature during the early life stage in forming strong year classes, the results show that the spawning stock biomass is nearly as important. Also, alongshore southerly wind stress anomalies during the period of pelagic drift (from April through summer) and offshore wind stress anomalies during egg and early larval stages (in April) act favourably on recruitment. The beneficial effect of southerly wind anomalies could he linked partly to high temperature, but the flux of zooplankton-rich water from the Norwegian Sea into the feeding areas of the Barents Sea may also be increased. The favourable influence of offshore winds in April is less predominant and causal links are also less clear; possible explanations for this might be increased offshore spreading of eggs and early larvae, resulting in reduced risk of predation, and increased compensation inflow of intermediate Norwegian Sea water which, in this restricted period of time, has a high concentration of spawning copepods suitable as prey for the developing cod larvae.     

The recruitment process of the Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) stock, 2001–2003

Oceanographic and predation processes are important modulators of fish larvae survival and mortality. This study addresses the hypothesis that immature Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus), when abundant in the Barents Sea, determine the capelin reproduction success through consumption of Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) larvae. Combining a hydrodynamic model and particle‐tracking individual‐based model, a realistic spatio‐temporal overlap between capelin larvae and predatory immature herring was modelled for the summer seasons of 2001–2003. Capelin larvae originating from western spawning grounds became widely dispersed during the summer season, whereas those originating from eastern spawning grounds experienced a rapid drift into the southeastern Barents Sea. Herring caused a 3% mortality of the capelin larvae population in 2001 and a 16% mortality in 2003, but the effect of predation from herring on capelin larvae was negligible in 2002. Despite a strong capelin larvae cohort and a virtual absence of predatory herring, the recruitment from the capelin 2002 year class was relatively poor from a long‐term perspective. We show that the choice of capelin spawning grounds has a major impact on the subsequent capelin larvae drift patterns, constituting an important modulator of the capelin larvae survival. Variation in drift patterns during the summer season is likely to expose the capelin larvae to a wide range of hazards, including predation from young cod, sandeel and other predators. Such alternative predators might thus have contributed to the poor capelin recruitment during 2001–2003, leading to the collapse of the capelin stock in the subsequent years.     

The influence of environment and spawning distribution on the survival of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) larvae in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) investigated by biophysical simulations

A growth and survival model of the early life stages was run along virtual drift trajectories tracked in a hydrodynamic model to simulate the annual recruitment process of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic). These biophysical simulations concerning three different years were analysed in order to investigate the influence of environment and spawning dynamics on the survival of larvae and juveniles. The location of space–time survival windows suggested major environmental mechanisms involved in simulated recruitment variability at the different scales – retention of larvae and juveniles in favourable habitats over the shelf margins and turbulence effects. These small‐scale and meso‐scale mechanisms were related to the variations in wind direction and intensity during spring and summer. Survival was also variable according to the origin of the drift trajectories, that is spawning distribution in space and time. The observed spawning distribution (according to field surveys) was compared with the spawning distribution that would maximize survival (according to the biophysical model) on a seasonal scale, which revealed factors not considered in the biophysical model (e.g. spawning behaviour of the different age classes). The variation of simulated survival according to spawning distribution was examined on a multi‐annual scale and showed a coherent pattern with past and present stock structures. The interaction processes between the population (influence on spawning) and its environment (influence on survival) and its implications on recruitment and stock dynamics are discussed.     

The influence of temperature on advective loss of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) eggs from the inshore environment

We use a simple model of temperature-dependent egg development and mortality to develop several hypotheses concerning the effect of temperature on the occurrence of eggs of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua , in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland. Predictions from this exploratory model were tested through a series of synoptic ichthyoplankton surveys throughout spawning and postspawning periods during 1997 and 1998. Although several egg mortality relationships were explored through the simulation, a constant mortality rate best represented the pattern observed in the two years of data. Peaks in late stage egg densities occurred in August of both 1997 and 1998 and were apparently decoupled from egg production peaks in April. We observed a decrease in mortality and the distance dispersed during egg development with increases in water temperature. We suggest that the effects of predation are small relative to the advective effects within this system, and that the interaction between advection and temperature-dependent vital rates of eggs may have dramatic consequences for coastal retention of propagules produced by inshore spawning events.     

Variations in the drift of larval cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the Baltic Sea: combining field observations and modelling

Coupled three-dimensional (3-D) physical oceanographic modelling and field sampling programmes were carried out in May 1988 and August 1991 to investigate the potential drift of larval cod ( Gadus morhua L.) in the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea. The goals were to predict the transport of cod larvae, thus aiding the identification of physical processes influencing larval retention/dispersal. Numerical simulations were performed using a 3-D eddy-resolving baroclinic model based on the Bryan–Cox–Semtner code adapted for the Baltic Sea. Within the Bornholm Basin, the model was initialized with ground truth data of physical parameters obtained on the research cruises, and all simulations were forced with actual wind data. Outside the basin, generalized hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea were utilized by incorporation of simulated hydrographic fields from previous model runs typical for the time periods considered. Larval drift was simulated either by incorporation of passive drifters, or as the initial horizontal distribution of larvae implemented into the model. Drift model simulations of larval transport agreed relatively well with field observations. The influence of variations in the vertical distribution on a smaller scale, i.e. vertical deviations of ± 6 m from the observed mean centre of mass, on the drift was examined, revealing no significant differences in the drift of larvae depending on their vertical distribution. The different wind forcing during the investigated time periods was linked to a retention situation in May 1988 and to a dispersal situation in August 1991. Finally, observed spatial distribution patterns of 1-group cod based on Baltic Young Fish Surveys (BYFS) were compared with their predicted transport in the larval phase and examined with respect to recruitment.     

Influences of mean advection and simple behavior on the distribution of cod and haddock early life stages on Georges Bank

Results of a modeling study designed to explore the influences of physical advection and certain biological mechanisms on the distribution of cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melarwgrammus aeglefinus) early life stages on Georges Bank are described. Using a late-winter/early-spring 3-D circulation field driven by the M₂ tidal current, mean wind stress and Scotian Shelf inflow, we examine the distribution of cod and haddock larvae spawned on the Northeast Peak of the Bank. The sensitivity to a March-April baroclinic field is also explored. Results indicate that larvae remaining in the surface Ekman layer are generally advected off-bank. However, downwelling associated with Ekman layer convergence near the shelf break provides a mechanism for larvae to exit from the off-bank surface drift. Larvae below the surface layer are transported south-westward along the southern flank of Georges Bank and are retained on the Bank if their position immediately upstream of the Great South Channel is shoalward of (roughly) the 70 m isobath. Within the Great South Channel region and between the 50 and 70 m isobaths, retention can depend on the phase of the tide. Spawning shoalward of the 50 m isobath on the Northeast Peak greatly increases the chances of retention. These results apply to passive larvae and to those with specified vertical distributions and migration based on observations. Directional on-bank swimming at rates of 0.5 to 1 body length per second would substantially enhance shoalward displacement, resulting in larval distributions during the first 2 months that are consistent with field observations.     

Seasonal spawning and wind‐regulated retention‐dispersal of early life stage Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in a Newfoundland fjord

Sequential ichthyoplankton surveys were used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs and larvae over coastal spawning grounds of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in Smith Sound, Trinity Bay, Newfoundland, during the spring and summer of 2006 and 2007. Egg densities showed similar patterns for both years with two peaks in abundance in spring (March–April) and late summer (late July). A clear progression of development stages (1–4) was observed in spring and summer in 2006 and summer in 2007, suggesting retention of eggs within the Sound during these periods. Modelled predictions of vertical egg distributions indicated eggs were broadly distributed near the surface during spring (March–April), but were concentrated below the pycnocline (>10 m) within the inner portions of the Sound during the summer months (July–August). Back‐calculated peaks in spawning based on water temperatures were estimated at 11 and 4 April for 2006 and 2007, respectfully, with late season peaks centred on 21–24 July for both years. Environmental data indicated cooler water temperatures and periods of high wind stress in spring, and warmer, calmer periods late summer, consistent with higher retention and faster development times on the spawning grounds later in the season. We conclude that spring and summer spawning events result in different distributions of early life stages and may lead to different distributions of juvenile and adult fish.     

Modeling the transport and survival of Japanese sardine larvae in and around the Kuroshio Current

We have numerically modeled the advection and diffusion of sardine eggs and larvae to investigate the larval transport processes of Japanese sardine from the spawning grounds by the Kuroshio.
The results indicated that the offshore drift current induced by the winter monsoon and the location of the spawning ground have significant effects on the survival of the Japanese sardine. The contribution of the drift current, the distance of the spawning ground from the Kuroshio axis, and the eddy diffusivity to the larval retention in the coastal area is approximately expressed by the following equation: where R is the retention rate in the coastal area, a the variance of initial distribution of eggs, T the time after the eggs were spawned, – V₀ the velocity of the wind-induced offshore current, y₀ the distance of the center of the spawning area from the Kuroshio axis, and K the coefficient of horizontal eddy diffusivity.
The year-to-year variation in larval survival rates stimulated by the two-dimensional model are consistent with those estimated previously by using field data of egg and larval abundance during 1978–1988.     

Processes controlling retention of spring‐spawned Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the western Gulf of Maine and their relationship to an index of recruitment success

Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, harvested in US waters are currently managed as a Gulf of Maine stock and as a stock comprising Georges Bank and southern New England populations. Over the past two and a half decades, success of age‐1 recruitment to the Gulf of Maine stock has varied by more than an order of magnitude. To investigate the hypothesis that this variation is related to variation in the transport of larval cod to nursery areas, we carried out model simulations of the movement of planktonic eggs and larvae spawned within the western Gulf of Maine during spring spawning events of 1995–2005. Results indicate that the retention of spring‐spawned cod, and their transport to areas suitable for early stage juvenile development, is strongly dependent on local wind conditions. Larval cod retention is favored during times of downwelling‐favorable winds and is least likely during times of upwelling‐favorable winds, during which buoyant eggs and early stage larvae tend to be advected offshore to the Western Maine Coastal Current and subsequently carried out of the Gulf of Maine. Model results also indicate that diel vertical migration of later stage larvae enhances the likelihood of retention within the western Gulf of Maine. Consistent with model results is a strong correlation between age‐1 recruitment success to the Gulf of Maine cod stock and the mean northward wind velocity measured in Massachusetts Bay during May. Based on these findings, we propose a wind index for strong recruitment success of age‐1 cod to the Gulf of Maine stock.     

Cod and haddock spawning on Georges Bank in relation to water residence times

The seasonal and geographical patterns of spawning for Georges Bank cod ( Gadus morhua ) and haddock ( Melanogrammus aeglefinus ) are estimated using composite distributions of stage I eggs derived from the Marine Resources Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction (MARMAP) data set (1977–1987). The inferred mean spawning locations are compared with patterns in particle residence times derived from a three-dimensional prognostic circulation model that estimates the tidal and seasonal mean circulation. The comparisons indicate that cod and haddock spawning occurs at times and locations characterized by model residence times in excess of 35 d. The results are discussed in the context of fish population regulation theory, particularly the member/vagrant hypothesis and the concept of abundance-dependent vagrancy.     

Larval lake sturgeon production and drift behaviour in the Menominee and Oconto Rivers,Wisconsin

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) have been negatively impacted by barriers to migration, pollution and overharvest. Biological data such as the timing of spawning activity and larval drift have provided a better understanding of larval production success or failure on a site-specific basis. However, many river systems that serve as reproductive locations for remnant lake sturgeon populations remain understudied. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast aspects of larval lake sturgeon drift within and between the Oconto and Menominee Rivers over multiple reproductive seasons. Differences in larval drift chronology, the size of drifting larvae during the season and the cross-sectional profile of drifting individuals as a function of river velocity were evaluated. D-frame drift nets were deployed at a single transect below spawning sites in the Menominee (2012, 2013 and 2014) and Oconto Rivers (2013, 2014 and 2015). A total of 4,442 larvae were captured across all seasons. Larvae exhibited nonrandom drift profiles related to water velocity, and larvae size was related to horizontal drift location. The seasonal increase in body size of drifting larvae also differed among drift events within and between years and across rivers. This information will provide a better understanding of lake sturgeon early life history and has practical management connections including spawning site protection/enhancement and river flow mitigation.     

A model of meta-population dynamics for North Sea and West of Scotland cod—The dynamic consequences of natal fidelity

It is clear from a variety of data that cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea do not constitute a homogeneous population that will rapidly redistribute in response to local variability in exploitation. Hence, local exploitation has the potential to deplete local populations, perhaps to the extent that depensation occurs and recovery is impossible without recolonisation from other areas, with consequent loss of genetic diversity. The oceanographic, biological and behavioural processes which maintain the spatial population structures are only partly understood, and one of the key unknown factors is the extent to which cod exhibit homing migrations to natal spawning areas. Here, we describe a model comprising 10 interlinked demes of cod in European waters, each representing groups of fish with a common natal origin. The spawning locations of fish in each deme are governed by a variety of rules concerning oceanographic dispersal, migration behaviour and straying. We describe numerical experiments with the model and comparisons with observations, which lead us to conclude that active homing is probably not necessary to explain some of the population structures of European cod. Separation of some sub-populations is possible through distance and oceanographic processes affecting the dispersal of eggs and larvae. However, other evidence suggests that homing may be a necessary behaviour to explain the structure of other sub-populations. The consequences for fisheries management of taking into account spatial population structuring are complicated. For example, recovery or recolonisation strategies require consideration not only of mortality rates in the target area for restoration, but also in the source areas for the recruits which may be far removed depending on the oceanography. The model has an inbuilt capability to address issues concerning the effects of climate change, including temperature change, on spatial patterns of recruitment, development and population structure in cod.     

Patterns in the spawning of cod (Gadus morhua L.), sole (Solea solea L.) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the Irish Sea as determined by generalized additive modelling

Eleven ichthyoplankton cruises were undertaken covering most of the Irish Sea during the period February to June, 1995. To identify spawning localities and investigate temporal trends in egg production, the data on stage 1 A egg distributions of cod ( Gadus morhua ), plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa ) and sole ( Solea solea ) have been modelled using generalized additive models (GAMs). A two-stage approach was adopted where presence/absence was firstly modelled as a binary process and a GAM surface subsequently fitted to egg production (conditional on presence). We demonstrate that this approach can be used to model egg production both in space and in time. The spawning sites for cod, plaice and sole in the Irish Sea were defined in terms of the probability of egg occurrence. For cod, we demonstrate that by integrating under predicted egg production surfaces, a cumulative production curve can be generated and used to define percentiles of production and thus delimit the extent of the spawning season. However, for plaice and sole, the surveys did not fully cover the spawning season and the limitations that this imposes on GAM modelling of these data are discussed. Comparison of the spawning sites in 1995 with historical data suggests that the locations of cod, plaice and sole egg production in the Irish Sea have probably remained relatively constant over the last 30 years.     

The potential for advective exchange of the early life stages between the western and eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.) stocks

In order to clarify mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.), a modelling exercise was performed to examine the effects of the wind‐driven circulation on the transport of early life stages between the western and eastern Baltic. Because the different stocks spawn in different areas and environments at different times of the year, the occurrence of variable age/length distributions of juveniles within the different potential nursery areas can be explained by the circulation pattern. A three‐dimensional circulation model of the Baltic was utilized to investigate the temporal evolution of egg and larval distributions of the western Baltic cod stock, which spawns preferentially in the Danish Straits, in Kiel Bay as well as in Mecklenburg Bay. For different scenarios (1988 and 1993), within‐ and between‐year variability of egg and larval transport showed large differences, primarily due to variations in wind forcing. In 1988, relatively low and variable wind forcing prevailed, whereas, due to sustained strong, mainly westerly, winds, in January 1993, the recent major Baltic inflow to the Baltic Sea occurred. Differences in contributions of early life stages from the western to the eastern cod stocks, depending on the physical forcing conditions, suggest that this process can be controlled by variations of atmospheric forcing conditions. The potential for early life stages from the western Baltic cod stock to drift into the Arkona Basin and the Bornholm Basin, and to contribute there to the juvenile population, has been recognized as being mainly due to strong westerly winds. During cold winters, retention of eggs, larvae and juveniles within their original spawning grounds may predominate. Transport of cod early life stages from the Øresund, as well as from the Great Belt, can occur only during periods of strong westerly winds, but significant eastwards orientated drift from Kiel Bay and Mecklenburg Bay was also evident during periods of minor westerly wind influence.     

Modelling the advection and diffusion of eggs and larvae of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in the north-east Arctic

Since the late 1980s there has been considerable uncertainty in recruitment levels of the north‐east Arctic stock of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). The abundance of several year classes, originally considered very low at 0–3 yr age, appeared higher than expected at the age of 6+. This may be due to poor targeting of recruitment surveys of the younger year classes. The present work considers the transport and dispersion of eggs and larvae of Greenland halibut by numerical modelling in order to predict the locations of the initial recruitment grounds. Current fields from a 3D baroclinic hydrodynamic model are fed into a Lagrangian particle‐tracking model developed for the Barents Sea area. The particles are released into the current at the spawning field along the shelf slope from Lofoten to Bear Island (69–75°N). Vertically, the particles can follow a predefined depth‐by‐age curve or be kept at a fixed depth. This model system is used for different years to examine changes in the drift pattern. The results indicate that spawning location, transport depth and inflowing activity to the Barents Sea are important factors influencing the distribution of juveniles.     

Modelling the dispersal of Calanus finmarchicus on the Newfoundland Shelf: implications for the analysis of population dynamics from a high frequency monitoring site

We investigated the drift of passive particles on the Newfoundland Shelf and western Labrador Sea using numerical simulations to assess the possible sources of plankton collected at a high frequency sampling site (S27; 47.55°N, 52.59°W) located near the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. We also summarized data detailing the seasonal stage succession of Calanus finmarchicus at that site, as well as along three oceanographic sections sampled in the spring, summer and autumn across the adjacent continental shelf. Simulations indicated that the Labrador and Newfoundland Shelves represent the major sources of particles transiting through the S27 site, with relatively minor contributions from the western Labrador Sea which are significant during a few months each year. The latter point may be affected by uncertainty in the representation of cross‐shelf transport associated with seasonal or short‐term variations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing, which may also affect the strength and location of bifurcation of the inner branch of the Labrador Current around the Grand Banks. Nevertheless, our results indicated that drift along the inner shelf is likely to be the primary source of copepods collected at S27 throughout most of the year. This in turn suggested that there may be a higher degree of connectivity between conditions in coastal areas of Newfoundland and those in Baffin Bay and west Greenland than with the southern half of the Labrador Sea.