林地动态变化的空间矩阵模型分析

以广西岑溪市1999年、2009年两期森林资源规划设计调查结果为数据来源,结合相邻矩阵和转移矩阵建立起空间矩阵模型。应用所建模型对岑溪市林地景观格局、林地转移及其转移趋势进行了实证研究,结果表明:在10年中,岑溪市林地面积有所增加,林地的增加,尤其是有林地较大幅度的增加导致了林地整体质量的提升;空间矩阵模型的构建能够有效挖掘林地动态变化的原因,寻找其变化驱动力,可为今后的林地保护利用规划、林业生产经营等提供科学依据。     

农户集体林地流转意愿与行为及影响因素研究的文献定量分析

对农户林地流转意愿与行为及影响因素的计量研究文献进行定量分析, 以探析该领域研究特征, 为今后的研究提供方法和视角选择等方面的参考。文中构建了理论分析框架, 并通过投票计数法汇总了10个农户林地转入意愿与行为和11个农户林地转出意愿与行为的计量回归模型信息, 以及不同模型选择的影响因素变量及分析结果。建议在现有大量使用Probit和Logit模型的基础上, 拓展使用时序、混合截面和面板数据模型; 合理选择家庭特征因素、市场驱动因素类变量和森林经营类变量, 并关注不同变量分析结果的冲突; 将研究区域从福建、江西、辽宁、浙江、云南等改革先行开展省份拓展到其他省份。     

影响农户对林地流转政策满意度的因素分析——基于江西、福建两省数据的实证研究

从政策受体——农户对林地流转政策期望的视角,基于先前研究和理论分析,结合实地调查数据,以江西、福建两省为例,采用有序Logistic回归模型进行计量分析,通过不断增加类别变量来明确各因素对农户政策满意度的影响程度和方向,计量分析结果显示:农户个体特征、农户林地资源禀赋特征、农户所处的社会政策环境特征、地区变量对农户政策满意度有显著影响。最后,根据计量分析结果,从提高农户参与林地流转的积极性角度出发,提出了健全林地流转机制的政策建议。     

文峪河流域土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动力分析

土地利用/覆被变化对于区域的自然、经济和生态发展有着深刻的影响,土地变化驱动力研究是土地利用/覆被变化的核心问题之一。为了探讨中西部小流域的土地覆被变化特征及其驱动因子组成与驱动方式,以山西省文峪河流域为研究对象,基于RS与GIS平台,分析流域2000—2018年土地利用/覆被变化情况;利用马尔柯夫模型预测未来土地利用结构;选取自然因子、区位建设因子、社会经济因子,利用Logistic回归的建模方法分析流域的土地利用/覆被驱动力。结果表明,流域整体耕地、林地、草地面积有所减少,水域、建设用地、其他用地类型面积增加,不同地类的变化速度、土地转移情况不同,流域整体土地变化速度较快,利用程度提高,有序化程度下降,均匀度增加。预测结果显示,耕地、林地、草地、其他用地面积下降,水域、建设用地面积增加,除耕地、建设用地外,其余地类面积变化较小。自然因子、区位建设因子和社会经济因子对研究区土地利用/覆被变化都具有显著的驱动作用。流域的土地利用/覆被在过去18年间经历了快速、复杂的变化,自然因子对土地变化具有基础性、长远性的影响,短时间尺度上区位建设因子与社会经济因子是影响土地变化的主要驱动力量。     

北京山区林地变化与社会经济驱动力研究

依据土地利用详查数据和社会经济统计数据,通过分析北京山区近10年林地时空变化特征,借助土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)驱动力分析方法,定量诊断出北京山区林地变化的主导社会经济驱动力,目的在于系统揭示北京山区林地变化的原因和社会经济驱动机制,为北京山区林地资源的保护和发展提供理论指导。     

长江中游地区土地利用格局与驱动力研究

土地利用格局变化与社会经济发展密切相关.咸宁市作为长江中游地区中等发展城市,对武汉都市圈战略有着重要意义.从1996～2006年,咸宁市土地利用格局具有很大的变化,通过对期间各地类动态度分析,选取了耕地、园地、林地、居民点工矿、交通、水利用地作为因变量,选取9个社会经济指标作为自变量,构建土地利用格局变化的驱动力模型.结果表明:①人口、种植业产值、林业产值、全社会固定资产投资和工业化率是土地利用格局变化的主要因素;②耕地变化与园地变化驱动效果基本相似;③对于林地,其驱动变化与耕地变化相反;④从建设用地驱动力分析情况来看,三种地类的驱动变化基本相似.在上述研究基础上,相对应了提出优化土地利用格局的建议.     

基于GIS的抚松县林业局森林资源地类变化动态监测

以2000年和2006年林相图和森林小班调查簿为基础,利用GIS技术对两期数据进行空间叠加分析,进而研究地类变化动态转移及空间分布信息.研究结果表明:在未来12年内,研究区域内灌木林地、无林地、未成林地、非林业用地和疏林地呈减少趋势;有林地和林业辅助用地呈增加趋势.     

回归模型的选择与检验

<正> 一、引言在林业工作中,经常应用回归分析方法进行数据统计分析。然而,实际生产中所进行的回归分析一般是多变量的,如何从这多个变量中挑选出作用大的变量建立较好的回归模型呢?最佳模型应该是包含所有的有用变量,但又不多含一个无用变量,因为遗漏有用变量和多含了无用变量,对模型的预测预报都是无利的。解决这一问题的方法通常是逐步回归,通过对变量逐个筛选,选取对回归贡献较大的那些变量建立回归模型。但是在某一显著性水平     

广西北部地区林地流转现状及林地转出行为模型分析

通过抽样走访广西北部地区灌阳县、永福县、全州县3个县的228户农户,对调研县的林地流转现状、流转方式、流转程序等方面进行调查,并采用Logistic模型进行回归分析。调查结果发现林地流转方式单一,且大多都是一转;农户对林地流转政策和法律法规意识不强。根据调查结果再结合实际提出相应的对策与建议。     

城市生态用地的空间结构变化及其利用与开发——以山城重庆市主城区为例

应用遥感和地理信息系统技术对重庆主城区生态用地的变化发展进行了探究,主要通过对重庆2001、2004、2007和2010年4个时期的Landsat-5遥感影像进行了处理和分析。结果表明:2001~2010年间城市生态用地变化较大,农用地和林地在逐年减少,取而代之的是城镇工矿用地逐年膨胀;城市生态用地空间变化有阶段性,且在研究时段内一直呈现负增长,在2001~2007年,生态用地减少幅度有所变小,而在2007年以后,随着城镇工矿建设速度加快,生态用地面积进一步减小;城市生态用地空间变化的主要驱动力是经济的发展,同时还受人口的增长,城市规划等因素的影响。     

Linking physical, economic and institutional constraints of land use change and forest conservation in the hills of Nepal

This paper analyses the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use during the period 1976–2000 along the altitudinal gradients in a watershed in Nepal. Land change patterns during this period were examined using information on land use derived from satellite images from 1976, 1990 and 2000. During the 24-year period from 1976 to 2000 agricultural land use increased by 35% at a cost of loss of forestland. Agricultural expansion was most conspicuous at higher elevations (1150–2000-m). About 36%, 18% and 6% of forestland was converted into agricultural activities from higher, middle and lower elevations respectively in the period from 1990 to 2000. Spatial distribution of living standard parameters, including farm family income and, food availability obtained from family surveys, shows a decreasing trend as the elevation increases whereas percentage of food bought shows an increasing trend. In this way it was found that, lost forest areas were smaller when located around high-income areas with good quality agricultural land and near an administrative centre as compared to areas located around low-income areas with low quality agricultural land and far from an administrative centre. Additionally, a regression model is constructed, to link the socioeconomic variables with the conversion of forestland into agricultural activities, breaking the study area into smaller zones. The spatial trajectories of these zones are then contrasted, paying particular attention to the socioeconomic conditions and institutional arrangements governing access to land resources. The study finds that while overall land change patterns in the region are largely explained by elevation and the socioeconomic conditions of people living adjacent to the forestland, more specifically, in sub-regional areas, trajectories reflect the signatures of institutions governing access to land. As sustainability of the watershed is dependent on forests, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture for local people together with loss of ecosystem services.     

Land-use and land-base patterns in non-industrial private forests: Factors affecting forest management in Northern Spain

There is increasing worldwide interest in land-use allocation and management within the sphere of rural planning and development. The study of land-use patterns mainly focuses on understanding the practices and values of individuals involved, and no debate of this issue would be complete without taking into account non-industrial private forest (NIPF) ownership as a key component in most rural areas worldwide. This paper empirically explores and assesses NIPF owners' management in terms of analysing dynamics in farming and forestry practices (past conversions from forestland to meadow and from marginal meadow to woodland, and intentions to change the current productive forest species and to extend the area of woodland) and landholding attributes (size and degree of parcellation in productive forestland). Logistic regression models were also used to investigate the probabilities and influencing factors involved in transforming marginal meadows to woodland, and attempts on the part of NIPF owners to change the current productive forest species and increase productive forestland. For this, a total of 103 NIPF owners in Northern Spain were interviewed in person, in March 2004, about their commitment to and involvement in land management during 1999–2003. The models correctly explained 73.3%, 83.7% and 73.3% of the variability in having converted marginal meadow in woodland and of future intentions to change the productive forest species and increase the area of productive forestland, respectively. The results of the study indicate that forest management mainly responds to investment and increasing the productivity of the land as a capital asset, which is directly influenced by the size and degree of parcellation of the holding, and directly or indirectly related to the owner's interest in timber production. The results may be used by forest professionals, researchers and policymakers in order to design and execute successful forest policies related to land management and planning.     

Autologistic regression and multicriteria evaluation models for the prediction of forest expansion

Land use changes are complex ecological processes driven by the interaction of biophysical and human related factors. The prediction of forest land use changes is important for sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation. This study investigates the modelling process of the spatial dynamics of a forest ecosystem in north eastern Greece. For the prediction of forest expansion, based on land use data of the study area, a deterministic approach using logistic regression and heuristic methods of multi-criteria evaluation is adopted. The set of factors driving forest expansion are: the slope, the distance to roads, the distance to urban areas, the distance to forest, the soil depth, the soil erosion and the influence from the land uses of the neighbourhood. The spatial autocorrelation of driving factors is addressed using an autologistic regression model. The multicriteria evaluation approach is developed using weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods. In WLC method the relative importance of each factor was estimated using the analytical hierarchy process. In the OWA method, decision strategies are generated using a selection of relative linguistic quantifiers, which allow different Risk in decisions. The accuracy of the models produced was tested with real data for the year 2001 using the ROC validation method. All the methods produced satisfactory results. Autologistic regression showed slightly better performance than multicriteria evaluation methods due to higher degree of objectivity in defining the importance of driving factors for forest expansion.     

Assessment of forest geospatial patterns over the three giant forest areas of China

Geospatial patterns of forest fragmentation over the three traditional giant forested areas of China （Northeastern, southwestern and Southern China） were analyzed comparatively and reported based on a 250-m resolution land cover dataset. Specifically, the spatial patterns of forest fragmentation were characterized by combining geospatial metrics and forest fragmentation models. The driving forces resulting in the differences of the forest spatial patterns were also investigated. Results suggested that forests in southwest China had the highest severity of forest fragmentation, followed by south region and northeast region. The driving forces of forest fragmentation in China were primarily the giant population and improper exploitation of forests. In conclusion, the generated information in the study provided valuable insights and implications as to the fragmentation patterns and the conservation of hiodiversity or genes, and the use of the chosen geospatial metrics and forest fragmentation models was quite useful for depicting forest fragmentation patterns.     

Change and persistence: exploring the driving forces of long-term forest cover dynamics in the Swiss lowlands

By the end of the twentieth century, the forest cover over most of Europe had stabilized or was increasing after many decades of decline. Persistence and change in forest cover are driven by complex human–environmental interactions and feedback loops operating on different temporal and spatial scales. A promising method to detect these complex interactions between driving forces is a causal analysis based on historical documents. In the first step of this study, forest cover was reconstructed based on historical and contemporary maps of the Canton of Zurich at seven different points in time between 1664 and 2000. Secondly, causal chains of drivers were constructed based on historical document analysis, in order to investigate whether forest cover was stable or whether any compensating mechanisms in place were reducing the net changes. While the overall net forest cover remained considerably persistent in the Canton of Zurich throughout the 336-year study period, major gross forest cover losses and gains were detected during certain periods. Major deforestation events occurred during times of crisis, e.g., at times of economic or political crisis. In contrast, the strong persistence of net forest cover was mainly a consequence of the Forest Police Law, but can also be attributed to intensive land use. The law prohibits deforestation in general, and intensive land use is preventing the kind of natural reforestation occurring in other regions, e.g., the Swiss Alps. These empirical findings shed light on the relevance of a high degree of political and economic stability in terms of maintaining landscape persistence. These insights into the driving forces of forest cover change and persistence can contribute to protecting and managing valuable landscapes in a rapidly changing world.     

Characterization of nonindustrial private forest owners and their influence on forest management aims and practices in Northern Spain

Explaining and predicting nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owner land management based on social, economic, and environmental factors is an increasingly important issue in policy arenas and academic research on rural development and planning. This study empirically explores and assesses management behavior by NIPF owners by analyzing attributes of landowner profile (age, educational level, primary occupation, engagement in farming, membership of professional groups, training in forestry, availability of market information, and specific knowledge and use of production criteria for timber harvesting). With the aim of predicting outcomes, a multiple regression model was constructed to investigate and quantify the probabilities of and factors influencing the participation of owners in agricultural and forestry associations. In March 2004, 103 resident forest landowners were interviewed about their commitment to and involvement in land management during 1999–2003 in Mariña Oriental, a forest region of Galicia, Northern Spain. Results suggest that professional occupation, particularly farming background, is the main factor affecting, either directly or indirectly, the forest management behavior of NIPF owners in the area. In particular, our logistic regression model for landowner membership of professional groups explained 77.9% of the variability observed in the study population, which suggests that the agricultural background of NIPF owners and their expectations from forests, represented by their future intention to enlarge the forestland base, play an important role in membership. In the region, forestry could be a valuable economic activity but it is not considered as such today. Findings could be used as a guide for design, planning, and implementation of research and policy measures that allow NIPF landowners to promote sustainable forestry for rural development.     

Norwegian family forest owners' willingness to participate in carbon offset programs

Forests act as carbon sinks and can make significant contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. In Norway, family forest owners own 80% of productive forestland and play a central role in the management of the country's forests. Yet little is known about whether these landowners would be interested in increasing carbon sequestration on their land and selling carbon credits. Only a handful of studies have examined the factors that motivate family forest owners to participate in carbon offset programs, and all of these studies have been conducted in the United States. This study addresses this information gap using data from a mail survey of 1500 Norwegian family forest owners. A logistic regression model was developed to examine the effect of various carbon program, forestland, and landowner characteristics on participation in a hypothetical carbon offset program. Results suggest that there is a considerable amount of interest among Norwegian family forest owners and that the most important predictors of participation are payment amount offered, perceived barriers posed by management actions, importance placed on non-market forest amenities, and attitudes towards climate change.     

我国集体林区林地规模经济测度与有效性分析

提出科学认定最优林地规模的方法,准确测度各个区域的最优林地规模,将为有效推进集体林权制度改革提供决策依据。文中利用辽宁、陕西、湖南和福建4省2 000户林农的调查数据,基于家庭生产函数框架,构建农户收益最大化的最优林地规模模型,分别从劳动力要素、资本要素以及土地要素最优利用视角推导林地规模经济测度公式,测算出南方和北方的最优林地规模;随后,将经营主体分为规模经济和非规模经济2个组别,分析其在投入、产出和效率方面的差异,以此检验所提出的最优林地规模的合理性和有效性。研究发现:样本总体、北方集体林区和南方集体林区的最优林地规模分别为28.7 hm2、38.44 hm2和26.48 hm2;且现有林地规模小于劳动力要素最优时的林地规模和土地要素最优时的林地规模。结果表明,农户现有林地规模与最优林地规模存在较大差距,应当针对不同区域加大生产要素投入,实现规模化经营。