农户集体林地流转意愿与行为及影响因素研究的文献定量分析

对农户林地流转意愿与行为及影响因素的计量研究文献进行定量分析, 以探析该领域研究特征, 为今后的研究提供方法和视角选择等方面的参考。文中构建了理论分析框架, 并通过投票计数法汇总了10个农户林地转入意愿与行为和11个农户林地转出意愿与行为的计量回归模型信息, 以及不同模型选择的影响因素变量及分析结果。建议在现有大量使用Probit和Logit模型的基础上, 拓展使用时序、混合截面和面板数据模型; 合理选择家庭特征因素、市场驱动因素类变量和森林经营类变量, 并关注不同变量分析结果的冲突; 将研究区域从福建、江西、辽宁、浙江、云南等改革先行开展省份拓展到其他省份。

Meta-analysis of Econometric Studies on Farmer's Willingness and Behaviors of Collective Forestland Transfer in China

This paper made an econometric analysis on the literatures that had carried out quantitative study to investigate farmers' willingness and behaviors of collective forestland transfer, with the expectation to explore the study characteristics in the field and offer references for the selection of methods and perspectives in future study. The paper constructed a framework for theoretical analysis, and then concluded information of 10 econometric regression models about farmers' willingness and behaviors of forestland transfer-in and 11 econometric regression models about farmers' willingness and behaviors of forestland transfer-out using the vote-counting method. It suggested that application of econometric models should be innovated by introducing time-serial data model, mixed cross-sector data model and panel data model based on current application of Probit model and Logit model; variables including family characteristic factors, market driving characteristics factors and forest management characteristics factors should be better made use of, with focus on the conflicts between the analysis results of different variables; the study area should be expanded from Fujian, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Yunnan to other provinces where the reforms are started late.