Association between outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 and migratory waterfowl (family Anatidae) populations

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 threatens poultry production and human health. Understanding the role that migratory waterfowl play in introducing and maintaining this infection is critical to control the outbreaks. A study was conducted to determine if the occurrence of HPAI subtype H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry in Romania, 2005-2006, was associated with proximity to populations of migratory waterfowl. Reported outbreaks--which could be grouped into three epidemic phases--and migratory waterfowl sites were mapped. The migratory waterfowl site closest to each outbreak was identified. The distances between outbreaks occurring in phase 1 and 2 of the epidemic and the closest migratory waterfowl site were significantly (P<0.001) less than in phase 3, but these distances were only useful in predicting when outbreaks occurred during phase 1 (October-December, 2005) of the epidemic. A spatial lag (rho=0.408, P=0.041) model best fit the data, using distance and [distance]*[distance] as predictors (R2=0.425). The correlation between when outbreaks were predicted to occur and when they were observed to occur was 0.55 (P=0.006). Results support the hypothesis that HPAI virus subtype H5N1 infections of village poultry in Romania during the autumn of 2005 might have occurred via exposure to migratory populations of waterfowl.     

Environmental and anthropogenic risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 outbreaks in Romania, 2005−2006

The association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 outbreak risk in poultry in 161 Romanian villages (October 2005 to June 2006) and environmental and anthropogenic factors was investigated. Village outbreak risk was associated with a village being <5 km from a major road (odds ratio [OR] 5.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21–22.9) or a river/stream (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.06–3.72). Outbreak risk in the first part of the epidemic was associated with a village being <5 km from a major road (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.10–9.98) or a regularly flooded land area (OR 5.08, 95% CI 1.08–23.9); whereas outbreak risk in the second part of the epidemic was associated with a village being <5 km from a river/stream (OR 5.5, 95% CI 1.69–18.9). Results suggest that both environmental and anthropogenic factors influence the risk of HPAI subtype H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry populations.     

Risk signals of an influenza pandemic caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1: spatio-temporal perspectives

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 is a trans-boundary animal disease that has crossed the animal-human species barrier and over the past decade has had a considerable impact on the poultry industry, wild bird populations and on human health. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of H5N1 outbreaks can provide visual clues to the dynamics of disease spread and of areas at risk, and thus improve the cost-effectiveness of disease control and prevention. This study describes the characteristics and investigates the temporal, spatial and space-time dynamics of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry between December 2003 and December 2009 using a global database. The study found that the start date of the epidemic wave was postponed, the duration of the epidemic was prolonged and its magnitude reduced over time, but the disease transmission cycle was not efficiently interrupted. Two 'hot-spot' regions of H5N1 outbreaks were identified: well-documented locations in East and Southeast Asia, as well as a novel location at the boundaries of Europe and Africa, where enhanced surveillance should be conducted. The risk of a pandemic due to H5N1 remains high.     

Molecular epidemiology of avian influenza viruses circulating among healthy poultry flocks in farms in northern Vietnam

Repeated epizootics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 were reported from 2003 to 2005 among poultry in Vietnam. More than 200 million birds were killed to control the spread of the disease. Human cases of H5N1 infection have been sporadically reported in an area where repeated H5N1 outbreaks among birds had occurred. Subtype H5N1 strains are established as endemic among poultry in Vietnam, however, insights into how avian influenza viruses including the H5N1 subtype are maintained in endemic areas is not clear. In order to determine the prevalence of different avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including H5N1 circulating among poultry in northern Vietnam, surveillance was conducted during the years 2006-2009. A subtype H5N1 strain was isolated from an apparently healthy duck reared on a farm in northern Vietnam in 2008 and was identified as an HPAI. Although only one H5N1 virus was isolated, it supports the view that healthy domestic ducks play a pivotal role in maintaining and transmitting H5N1 viruses which cause disease outbreaks in northern Vietnam. In addition, a total of 26 AIVs with low pathogenicity were isolated from poultry and phylogenetic analysis of all the eight gene segments revealed their diverse genetical backgrounds, implying that reassortments have occurred frequently among strains in northern Vietnam. It is, therefore, important to monitor the prevalence of influenza viruses among healthy poultry between epidemics in an area where AIVs are endemic.     

我国H5和H7N9亚型高致病性禽流感的监测及疫情暴发分析

禽流感病毒（avian influenza virus,AIV）是一种重要的人兽共患病病原,严重制约养禽业的健康发展,并对公共卫生安全构成极大威胁。其中,H5（H5N1、H5N2、H5N6、H5N8等）和H7N9亚型高致病性禽流感病毒（highly pathogenic avian influenza virus,HPAIV）引起的高致病性禽流感（highly pathogenic avian influenza,HPAI）对我国养禽业危害巨大。通过实施强制免疫,疫情得到了控制,但在禽群中仍散状暴发,并出现多种新型病毒,防控形势依然严峻。本文总结了截至2021年9月我国禽类暴发H5和H7N9亚型HPAI的所有官方公布的疫情暴发事件以及监测数据,分析了其流行特点,以期为禽流感的预警和防控提供参考。     

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.     

Risk factors and characteristics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) post-vaccination outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 is now endemic in South-East Asia but HPAI control methods differ between countries. A widespread HPAI vaccination campaign that started at the end of 2005 in Viet Nam resulted in the cessation of poultry and human cases, but in 2006/2007 severe HPAI outbreaks re-emerged. In this study we investigated the pattern of this first post-vaccination epidemic in southern Viet Nam identifying a spatio-temporal cluster of outbreak occurrence and estimating spatially smoothed incidence rates of HPAI. Spatial risk factors associated with HPAI occurrence were identified. Medium-level poultry density resulted in an increased outbreak risk (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6–18.9) but also climate-vegetation factors played an important role: medium-level normalised difference vegetation indices during the rainy season from May to October were associated with higher risk of HPAI outbreaks (OR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.7–8.1), probably because temporal flooding might have provided suitable conditions for the re-emergence of HPAI by expanding the virus distribution in the environment and by enlarging areas of possible contacts between domestic waterfowl and wild birds. On the other hand, several agricultural production factors, such as sweet potatoes yield, increased buffalo density, as well as increased electricity supply were associated with decreased risk of HPAI outbreaks. This illustrates that preventive control measures for HPAI should include a promotion of low-risk agricultural management practices as well as improvement of the infrastructure in village households. Improved HPAI vaccination efforts and coverage should focus on medium poultry density areas and on the pre-monsoon time period.     

Identifying spatio-temporal patterns of transboundary disease spread: examples using avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks

Characterizing spatio-temporal patterns among epidemics in which the mechanism of spread is uncertain is important for generating disease spread hypotheses, which may in turn inform disease control and prevention strategies. Using a dataset representing three phases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in village poultry in Romania, 2005–2006, spatio-temporal patterns were characterized. We first fit a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that quantified changes in the spatio-temporal relative risk for each of the 23 affected counties. We then modeled spatial synchrony in each of the three epidemic phases using non-parametric covariance functions and Thin Plate Spline regression models. We found clear differences in the spatio-temporal patterns among the epidemic phases (local versus regional correlated processes), which may indicate differing spread mechanisms (for example wild bird versus human-mediated). Elucidating these patterns allowed us to postulate that a shift in the primary mechanism of disease spread may have taken place between the second and third phases of this epidemic. Information generated by such analyses could assist affected countries in determining the most appropriate control programs to implement, and to allocate appropriate resources to preventing contact between domestic poultry and wild birds versus enforcing bans on poultry movements and quarantine. The methods used in this study could be applied in many different situations to analyze transboundary disease data in which only location and time of occurrence data are reported.     

Classic fowl plague--a review

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) represents a severe form of generalized avian influenza which is characterized by a rapid and severe course of disease and a very high mortality. All poultry species are susceptible. Turkeys and chickens are most vulnerable. There are no pathognomonic symptoms or specific pathological alterations. The disease is caused by avian influenza virus strains of the subtypes H5 or H7. These viruses arise spontaneously from apathogenic progenitors by insertional mutation in the HA gene. Until recently, outbreaks of HPAI were rare events, however, they have been found to cause increasing losses over the past few years. Since 2003, a widespread occurrence of HPAI has been registered in southeast Asia, and some countries are endemically infected with HPAIV strain H5N1. In six countries this virus has also caused fatal human infections. This has sparked fears that this agent may be the progenitor of a new pandemic influenza virus. During summer 2005 the disease has slowly spread westward. Isolated outbreaks have been reported from Kazakhstan, Russia, Romania, Turkey, Croatia and Ukraine. Migratory birds have been tentatively accused for spreading the infection along their flyways.     

Legislation for the control of avian influenza in the European union

In the light of experience gained with avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in Europe and elsewhere in the world, the European Union (EU) legislation has recently been updated. The strategy to control the introduction and spread of AI relies on rapid disease detection, killing of infected birds, movement restrictions for live birds and their products, cleaning and disinfection and vaccination. Measures are not only to be implemented in case of outbreaks of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI), but are now also directed against occurrence of low pathogenic AI of H5 and H7 (LPAI) subtypes in poultry, albeit in a modified manner proportionate to the risk posed by these pathotypes. Enhanced surveillance in poultry holdings and wild birds, as well as preventive vaccination, has also been introduced. EU Measures are flexible and largely based on risk assessment of the local epidemiological situation. The occurrence of HPAI H5N1 of the Asian lineage in the EU and its unprecedented spread by wild migratory birds necessitated the adoption of additional control measures. Although HPAI H5N1 has affected wild birds and poultry holdings in several EU Member States, EU legislation and its implementation in Member States has so far successfully limited the impact of the disease on animal and human health.     

Infectious dose‐dependent accumulation of live highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in chicken skeletal muscle—implications for public health

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) of H5N1 subtype are a major global threat to poultry and public health. Export of poultry products, such as chicken and duck meat, is a known source for the cross‐boundary spread of HPAI H5N1 viruses. Humans get infected with HPAI H5N1 viruses either by close contact with infected poultry or through consumption of fresh/undercooked poultry meat. Skeletal muscle is the largest soft tissue in chicken that has been shown to contain virus during systemic HPAIV infection and supports productive virus infection. However, the time between infection of a chicken with H5N1 virus and presence of virus in muscle tissue is not yet known. Further, it is also not clear whether chicken infected with low doses of H5N1 virus that cause non‐fatal subclinical infections continue to accumulate virus in skeletal muscle. We investigated the amount and duration of virus detection in skeletal muscle of chicken experimentally infected with different doses (10², 10³ and 10⁴ EID₅₀) of a HPAI H5N1 virus. Influenza viral antigen could be detected as early as 6 hr after infection and live virus was recovered from 48 hr after infection. Notably, chicken infected with lower levels of HPAI H5N1 virus (i.e., 10² EID₅₀) did not die acutely, but continued to accumulate high levels of H5N1 virus in skeletal muscle until 6 days post‐infection. Our data suggest that there is a potential risk of human exposure to H5N1 virus through meat from clinically healthy chicken infected with a low dose of virus. Our results highlight the need to implement rigorous monitoring systems to screen poultry meat from H5N1 endemic countries to limit the global spread of H5N1 viruses.     

International disease monitoring, April to June 2012

African swine fever continues to spread in western Russia Brucellosis outbreaks in Europe Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks across the Middle East and north Africa continue to present a threat to Europe Highly pathogenic avian influenza H3N7 in Mexico in an area of high poultry density Continued outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in endemic areas Information on Schmallenberg virus in ruminants in northern Europe These are among matters discussed in the international disease monitoring report for April to June 2012, prepared?by Defra's Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency.     

Metapopulation dynamics and determinants of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Indonesian poultry

In 2008, the Indonesian Government implemented a revised village-level Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response (PDSR) program to gain a better understanding of both the magnitude and spatial distribution of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in backyard poultry. To date, there has been considerable collection of data, but limited publically available analysis. This study utilizes data collected by the PDSR program between April 2008 and September 2010 for Java, Bali and the Lampung Province of Sumatra. The analysis employs hierarchical Bayesian occurrence models to quantify spatial and temporal dynamics in backyard HPAI infection reports at the District level in 90 day time periods, and relates the probability of HPAI occurrence to PDSR-reported village HPAI infection status and human and poultry density. The probability of infection in a District was assumed to be dependent on the status of the District in the previous 90 day time period, and described by either a colonization probability (the probability of HPAI infection in a District given there had not been infection in the previous 90 day time period) or a persistence probability (the probability of HPAI infection being maintained in the District from the previous to current 90 day period). Results suggest that the number of surveillance activities in a district had little relationship to outbreak occurrence probabilities, but human and poultry densities were found to have non-linear relationships to outbreak occurrence probabilities. We found significant spatial dependency among neighboring districts, indicating that there are latent spatial processes that are not captured by the covariates available for this study, but which nonetheless impact outbreak dynamics. The results of this work may help improve understanding of the seasonal nature of H5N1 in poultry and the potential role of poultry density in enabling endemicity to occur, as well as to assist the Government of Indonesia target scarce resources to regions and time periods when outbreaks of HPAI in poultry are most likely to occur.     

Are the Australian poultry industries vulnerable to large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza?

Objective   To describe the structure of the Australian poultry industry and discuss the potential for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to spread between Australian poultry farms.
Procedure   High densities of poultry farms, frequent contacts between farms by service providers, the supply of live poultry markets (LPM) and the presence of free-range duck flocks in affected regions have been identified as risk factors for the spread of HPAI between flocks in outbreaks causing the death or destruction of over 1 million poultry overseas. Data on 1,594 commercial Australian chicken meat, chicken egg, duck and turkey farms were collected by a telephone questionnaire of farm managers to assess the risk of a HPAI outbreak in Australia.
Results and Discussion   Five regions of Australia had farm densities comparable to overseas regions that experienced widespread HPAI. Common service providers routinely contacted different classes and types of farms over wide geographic areas. However, no responding farms supplied LPM and the majority of duck farms did not produce free-range ducks.
Conclusion   Outbreaks of HPAI have the potential to cause serious impacts on the Australian poultry industry. The risk posted by LPM and free-range ducks is limited, but the movement of genetic stock and common service providers could spread infection between companies, industries or geographical regions. Biosecurity measures are therefore considered critical to limit the secondary spread of infection should an outbreak occur.     

Risk factors for highly pathogenic H7N1 avian influenza virus infection in poultry during the 1999-2000 epidemic in Italy

In 1999-2000, Italian poultry production was disrupted by an H7N1 virus subtype epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The objectives of the present study were to identify risk factors for infection on poultry farms located in regions that had the highest number of outbreaks (Veneto and Lombardia) and the impact of pre-emptive culling as a complementary measure for eradicating infection. A Cox regression model that included spatial factors, such as the G index, was used. The results confirmed the relationship between risk of infection and poultry species, production type and size of farms. The effectiveness of pre-emptive culling was confirmed. An increased risk of infection was observed for poultry farms located near an infected farm and those at altitudes less than 150m above sea level. The measures for the control and eradication of AI virus infection need to consider species differences in susceptibility, the types of production and the density of poultry farms in the affected areas.     

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) clades in Bangladesh, 2010 and 2011

Since the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 during 2005–2006, control programs have been successfully implemented in most affected countries. HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Bangladesh in 2007, and since then 546 outbreaks have been reported to the OIE. The disease has apparently become endemic in Bangladesh. Spatio-temporal information on 177 outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 occurring between February 2010 and April 2011 in Bangladesh, and 37 of these outbreaks in which isolated H5N1 viruses were phylogenetically characterized to clade, were analyzed.     

Estimating spatial and temporal variations of the reproduction number for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Thailand

Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread, causing a pandemic with serious economic consequences and public health implications. Quantitative estimates of the spread of HPAI H5N1 are needed to adapt control measures. This study aimed to estimate the variations of the reproduction number R in space and time for the HPAI H5N1 epidemic in Thailand. Transmission between sub-districts was analyzed using three different and complementary methods. Transmission of HPAI H5N1 was intense (R(t)>1) before October 2004, at which point the epidemic started to progressively fade out (R(t)<1). The spread was mainly local, with 75% of the putative distances of transmission less than 32km. The map of the mean standardized ratio of transmitting the infection (sr) showed sub-districts with a high risk of transmitting infection. Findings from this study can contribute to discussions regarding the efficacy of control measures and help target surveillance programs.