辽宁省近53年冬季气温变化特征分析

为准确预测辽宁冬季气候，进而达到对冬季设施农业等方面服务的目的，根据辽宁省53个气象观测站1961—2014年逐月的平均气温资料，利用滑动T检验方法、Mann-Kendall检验方法、最大熵谱方法以及Morlet小波分析等方法，分析了1961—2013年辽宁省冬季平均气温的变化特征。结果表明：近53年辽宁省冬季平均气温时间序列呈显著的线性递增趋势，与全球气候变暖趋势相一致。但值得注意的是，近几年辽宁出现了气温偏低的情况；辽宁省冬季平均气温在1985—1986年前后发生了1次明显突变，之前气温以偏低为主，之后开始显著增温。辽宁省冬季平均气温的主要周期为准3~5年周期和17年周期。采用新资料得到的辽宁冬季气温变化特征与采用旧资料的情况略有差异。

Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in Winter of Liaoning During Recent 53 Years

Based on mean air temperature data in winter of Liaoning from 1961 to 2014 from 53 observational stations, using T-test and M-K test, maximum entropy spectrum and wavelet analysis methods, the variation characteristics of mean air temperature in winter of Liaoning from 1961 to 2013 were analyzed. The results indicated that: mean air temperature in winter of Liaoning was linearly increasing in recent 53 years. The warming trend which coordinated with global warming was very obvious. But people should notice that in recent years, temperature in winter of Liaoning was abnormally low. The mutation of mean air temperature in winter of Liaoning from 1961 to 2013 occurred in 1985 to 1986, after which the air temperature went up evidently. Its cycle periods were 3 to 5 years and 17 years. The variation characteristics of temperature in winter in Liaoning were slightly different between new and old data.