综合治理资源约束下安徽省适宜城市人口规模与城镇化演进对策

目的]探究资源条件约束下安徽省城市人口规模,为安徽省制定城市化发展规划及可持续城市化发展策略提供决策参考.方法]基于资源消耗综合视角,运用SPSS软件,采用曲线回归分析方法和分形模型对城市人口规模结构分形特征进行探索.结果]安徽省资源消耗与城市化规模契合S形曲线演化规律.资源条件约束下,安徽省城市人口适宜规模理论值为2 184.30万人;安徽省城市人口呈低水平均衡分布态势,首位城市(合肥市)的垄断性不强,其分形维数D值为1.54,首位城市(合肥)人口理想规模为371.67万人;安徽省城镇化建设重点在于引导农村人口向县域小城镇集聚及增强首位城市的龙头地位.结论]安徽省未来城镇化建设重点在于加快首位城市(合肥)建设,引导农村人口向县域小城镇迁移.

Proper Urban Population Scale and Urbanization Evolutionary Countermeasures in Anhui Province Under Resource Constraints

Objective] Urban population size of Anhui Province was revealed under resource constraint conditions in order to provide a decision-making reference for Anhui Province regarding the urbanization development planning and the sustainable urbanization development strategy. Methods] Resource consumption was viewed comprehensively. Curve regression analysis method and fractal model were applied to explore the fractal characteristics of urban population scale structure by SPSS software. Results] Resource consumption and urbanization scale in Anhui Province presented a S-shaped curve evolutionary law. Under resource constraints, the theoretical value of proper urban population scale should be 21.843 million in Anhui Province. Urban population presents a low-level balanced distribution in Anhui Province with less strong monopoly of primate city(Hefei City), of which the fractal dimension D value is 1.54.And the ideal population scale of primate city(Hefei City) is 3.716 7 million. The key of population urbanization is to guide the agglomeration of rural population towards small towns and enhance the leading status of primate city in Anhui Province. Conclusion] The future urbanization focus of Anhui Province is to speed up the construction of primate city(Hefei City) and guide the migration of rural population to county town.