湖北省农业碳排放的时空特征及经济关联性

【目的】湖北省是农业大省,农业生产的碳排放在总碳排放中占据较大的比重,碳排放所带来的温室效应和农业生产导致的面源污染等环境问题不容忽视。基于此,通过分析农业经济增长和农业碳排放之间的协整关系,并对其进行误差修正,为湖北省未来的碳减排工作的开展提供重要的理论依据和参考。【方法】基于6个主要方面碳源,测算了1993–2017年湖北省农业生产活动所导致的碳排放量,并分析农业碳排放的时空特征。进一步通过Kernel密度估计发现,湖北省各地市州农业碳排放的地区差距。最后,综合运用协整理论及误差修正模型,实证湖北省农业经济增长与碳排放之间的关系。【结果】湖北省农业碳排放总量和强度均呈现先升后降的趋势,年均增长率分别为2.32%、2.21%,从总体来看环比增速呈现下降的趋势。农药、农膜、化肥、农用柴油、翻耕和农业灌溉等所产生碳排放年均递增率分别为2.23%、2.44%、2.40%、3.32%、0.44%和2.32%;通过Kernel密度估计发现,在此样本考察期间内湖北省各地市州农业碳排放的地区差距有明显的扩大。湖北省农业碳排放与农业经济增长存在协整关系的有：农业碳排放总强度,农药、农膜、农用柴油和灌溉等4类碳源导致的碳排放强度,且当湖北省人均农业总产值每增加1%时,农药、农膜、农用柴油和农业灌溉等4类碳源的碳排放强度分别增加了0.58%、0.59%、0.25%和0.15%,农业碳排放总强度便增加0.19%。【结论】湖北省农业经济发展、生产条件和地区发展战略不同,而导致地区间的农业碳排放差距越来越明显。农业经济增长与农业碳排放存在长期稳定关系,这表明湖北省还处于传统耕作模式向绿色低碳耕作模式转型的关键期,并且这种发展模式已存在较长时间。

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Economic Relevance of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hubei Province

【Objective】Hubei Province is a large agricultural province, and the carbon emissions from agricultural production account for a large proportion of the total carbon emissions. Environmental problems such as greenhouse effect caused by carbon emission and non-point source pollution caused by agricultural production cannot be ignored. In this study, the co-integration relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed, and the error correction was carried out, which provided an important theoretical basis and reference for the development of carbon emission reduction in Hubei Province. 【Method】Based on six kinds of main carbon sources from the agricultural inputting and production, the agricultural carbon emission load from 1993 to 2017 was calculated, and then the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province were analyzed. Furtherly, Kernel density estimation demonstrated that the regional gap of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei province. Finally, the integrated use of co-order error correction model was discussed as an evidence of Hubei Province's agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions. 【Result】The total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province showed a trend of rising first and then later. The average annual growth rate of agriculture carbon emissions was 2.32%, while the average annual growth rate of intensity was 2.21%. The chain growth of which was general in the stage of decline. Fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural diesel, real tillage and agricultural irrigation as a result of carbon emissions, average annual increase rate was 2.23%, 2.44%, 2.40%, 3.32%, 0.44%, and 2.32%, respectively. Kernel density estimation demonstrated that the regional gap of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province was widening. The integrated use of co-order error correction model was discussed as an evidence of Hubei Province's agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that: for every 1% increase in per capita agricultural output value, the total carbon intensity of pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural diesel, agricultural irrigation and other carbon sources of carbon emission intensity increased by 0.58%, 0.59%, 0.25% and 0.15%, respectively, and the total agricultural carbon intensity increased by 0.19%.【Conclusion】Different agricultural economic development, production conditions and regional development strategies in Hubei Province led to more and more obvious agricultural carbon emission gap between regions. There was a long-term stable relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province, which indicated that Hubei Province was also in a critical period of transition from traditional farming mode to green and low-carbon farming mode, and this development mode had existed for a long time.