三峡库区农林用地变化遥感监测及模拟预测

随着三峡工程的建设，库区生态环境变化及城市扩张影响已引起广泛关注。该文利用面向对象方法分析工程前期（1992年）与中期（2002年）农林用地的变化特征；并在SLEUTH模型本地化基础上，模拟预测了重庆地区未来城市扩张及土地利用/覆盖变化过程，研究城市化对该地区农林用地的影响。结果表明，10年间，三峡库区耕地减少而林地增加。其中，坡度大于25°的耕地与乔木林面积减少明显，城市与建设用地扩展迅速。人类活动是农林用地变化的重要原因。模拟显示，在未来十几年，研究区将有一个缓慢的城市扩张过程，并伴有新的增长点，耕地与林地也同时减少。在当前活动强度与开发力度下，库区农林用地的减少趋势仍将较为明显。研究结果对库区的生态环境建设和城市发展具有一定的指导意义。

Remote sensing monitor and simulation prediction of cultivated and woody land changes for Three-gorges reservoir region

With the progress of the Three Gorges Project, the change of eco-environment and the influence of urbanization on ecosystem in the reservoir region have attracted worldwide attention. The information of land-use/cover in two phases (1992 and 2002) was extracted through the object-oriented methods. The dynamic characteristics of cultivated and woody land changes were analyzed. Based on the SLEUTH model, the process of urbanization and associated land-use/cover change were simulated in the Chongqing region. The influence of urbanization on cultivated and woody land in future was analyzed. The results showed that cultivated land decreased, while woody land increased during the 10 years. Meanwhile, the proportion of cultivated land with larger 25 degree and of forest decreased, and Urban and built-up land extended sharply. The results of simulation showed that urban would expand slower in future decades, and new spreading centers had occurred. Hence, the cultivated and woody land would decrease continually. In the currently activity intension, the trend of cultivated and woody land would decrease obviously. The results will offer the foundation of decision-making for the local eco-environment construction and the urban development.