| 基于时间序列分析的降雨量动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐文霞,林俊宏,廖飞佳,李国东.基于时间序列分析的降雨量动态预测[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(36):18099-18100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐文霞 林俊宏 廖飞佳 李国东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆维吾尔族自治区气象局人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002
2. 华北电力大学数理学院,北京,102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用时间序列分析与数理统计分析相结合的方法,建立了合理的模型,对雷州半岛徐闻气象站的年降水量进行了参数估计和动态预测。提出了一种合理的动态预测方法,该方法获得了较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测 数学模型 降雨量 |
Dynamic Forecast of Precipitation Based on Time Series Analysis |
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| XU Wen-xia et al.Dynamic Forecast of Precipitation Based on Time Series Analysis[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,37(36):18099-18100. |
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| Authors: | XU Wen-xia |
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| Institution: | XU Wen-xia et al(Weather Modification Office,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regions Meteorological Bureau,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002) |
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| Abstract: | A reasonable model was established by adopting the methods of time series analysis and statistical analysis.Parametric estimation and dynamic forecast were made based on the annual precipitation of Xuwen Weather Station in Leichou Peninsula.A reasonable dynamic forecasting method with high precision was put forward. |
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| Keywords: | Forecast Mathematical model Precipitation |
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