灰色拓扑预测方法在森林火灾预测中的应用

根据森林火灾影响因子的不确定性和波动性,以福建省建阳市1970～1994年森林火灾为研究资料,运用灰色拓扑预测方法探讨了森林火灾的发生规律,并建立森林火灾的灰色拓扑预测模型 结果表明:所建立的灰色拓扑预测模型效果十分理想,各个模型的平均精度均在95%以上,所有模型总的平均精度为98 033%,达到一级精度的标准,表明拓扑预测模型能定量分析灾害发生的时间动态及其变化规律,从而为森林保护的有关决策提供了依据

The Application of Topological Forecasting Method of Grey Theory on the Prediction of Forest Fire Disaster

Based on the data of the forest fire disaster area from 1970 to 1994 obtained from Jianyang City,Fujian Province,the method of topological forecasting of grey theory was applied to study the law of forest fire,and the topological forecasting models of forest fire disaster were built in this paper.The results showed that the effects of topological forecasting models were very good,the accuracy of five models were all over 95%,and the average accuracy was 98.033%,which reached the first accuracy standard.It is proved by theory and practice that the topological forecasting models of natural disaster can predict the occurrence and dynamics of the disaster quantitatively.Therefore,this study will provide sound basis for making decisions about forest protection.