| 基于定额定量分析的农业用水需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘迪,胡彩虹,吴泽宁.基于定额定量分析的农业用水需求预测研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2008,27(6):88-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘迪 胡彩虹 吴泽宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划
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| 摘 要： | 在分析农业需水预测常用方法的基础上,提出了基于定额又不同于传统定额法的需水预测方法:采用主成分分析法和相关分析法定量地辨识农业用水与各影响因素之间的关系,并利用回归分析法建立需水预测模型。以郑州市为例,对预测方法进行了检验分析。结果表明:在降雨保证率为75%的情形下,郑州市2020年和2030年的灌溉需水总量为66863.40×104m3和64001.63×104m3,灌溉用水呈下降趋势,符合实际发展情况。方法具有一定的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 定量分析 回归分析 定额 农业灌溉需水 |
Predicting Method for Demand of Agriculture Water Based on Quantitative Analysis |
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| LIU Di,HU Cai-hong,WU Ze-ning.Predicting Method for Demand of Agriculture Water Based on Quantitative Analysis[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2008,27(6):88-91. |
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| Authors: | LIU Di HU Cai-hong WU Ze-ning |
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| Institution: | LIU Di,HU Cai-hong,WU Ze-ning(School of Water Conservancy & Environment,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China) |
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| Abstract: | A new predicting method for demand of agriculture water is established based on analyzing the mainly forecasting method.By this method,the main factors of water demand are obtained using principal component analysis,then the predicting model of water demand is set up with the regression analysis method.Zhengzhou City is taken as an example for the analysis.The results show that the irrigation water demand of the year of 2020 and 2030 will be reached 66863.40×104 m3 and 64001.63×104 m3 when rainfall frequency is 75%.The results also show the trend of irrigation water quota and demand is down,and the method is feasible. |
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| Keywords: | quantitative analysis regression analysis quota irrigation water demand |
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