云南农垦天然橡胶产业典型相关分析与可持续发展

应用多元典型相关分析并结合2003年时间序列线图描述性分析,对云南农垦集团天然橡胶生产和可持续发展进行了研究,结果表明:该集团今后在云南省内大面积发展空间已经很小,年平均单产按Gompertz曲线数学变化规律大幅度增长空间非常有限,实施"挖潜力"和"走出去"的发展战略完全符合Brundtland宣言中非回归自然的方式去保护环境的可持续发展观点。依照典型相关的显著关联性结果,企业内部管理在以生态经济原则为指导的可持续发展中,优化得出的重点是要注重控制植胶成本、提高橡胶成林数量、增大科技投入;在企业取得长足发展增加效益的同时,应注重多渠道、逐年适度地增加典型变量中职工的年均收入。这些优化的生产方式对指导该集团天然橡胶产业可持续发展具有重要参考价值。

Canonical Correlation Analysis of Natural Rubber Industry of Yunnan State-Farm Group and Its Sustain-able Development

Using Multivariate Canonical Correlation Analysis and linear analysis of Microsoft 0ffice PowerPoint 2003 time series, the natural rubber industry of Yunnan State-Farm Group and its sustainable development were studied. Results indicated that there is no much room for developing in Yunnan Province and the average yield‘s increasing per unit is very limited according to mathematic change rule of Gompertz. The development strategy of Digging Potential and Going Out are full compliance with sustainable development perspective of Brundtland Declaration Harmony (non-return to nature approach to the protection of the environment). Based on the remarkable relatedness result of canonical correlation, internal management, ecological economy as principles, should focus on controlling the cost of planting rubber, increasing the number of adult rubber and investment in science. When achieved significant development, the company should pay attention to increasing worker’s average annual income (in the Canonical Variables) properly year by year via multi-channel. These optimization methods of production may have a certain value to guiding the group’s development of natural rubber industry.