耕地面积变化趋势及社会经济驱动因子分析——以博尔塔拉蒙古自治州为例

根据博州1988～2009年耕地面积与人口、畜牧业等10个社会经济指标,运用GM(1,1)模型预测耕地面积变化趋势,同时运用灰色关联分析与多重回归分析相结合的方法,分析耕地面积变化的主要驱动力。结果表明:1988～2009年,博州耕地面积经历了缓慢增长到快速增加的过程,尤其2007～2008年,耕地出现爆发性增长;2008～2016年,博州的耕地面积会保持较平稳的态势,期间可能会出现略有减少或增加的情况,2016年以后,博州耕地面积又将出现缓慢的增长;人口、畜牧业和粮食总产量是对耕地面积影响最大的3个指标,其关联度值分别达到0.994 8、0.993 9、0.990 8,影响最小的农业机械总动力,关联度值为0.682 2;影响博州耕地面积变化的驱动力因子由大到小依次为:人口>畜牧业>粮食总产量>粮食单产>农村用电量>人均国民生产总值>农林牧渔业总产值>国民生产总值>社会固定资产投资>农业机械总动力,其中,人口、农林渔业总产值、国民生产总值和社会固定资产投资与耕地面积关系是正相关的,而农业机械总动力、农村用电量、粮食总产量、粮食单产、人均国民生产总值和畜牧业与耕地面积的关系呈负相关。

Cultivated Land Area Change Trend and Social Economic Driving Factors Analysis in Bozhou

The main driving forces that caused the change of the cultivated land use were pointed out,based on the ten socio-economic indicators including agricultural acreage,population,animal husbandry and so on during 1988-2009 in Bozhou,and meanwhile the method of GM(1,1) model together with grey correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis contributes to the outcome of the statistics.The results showed three trends.The first one is that,during the years of 1988 to 2009,the increase of the agricultural acreage has experienced a slow to rapid increase in Bozhou,especially in 2007 and 2008,in which the growth is explosive.During the following eight years that is from 2008 to 2016 the enlargement will keep steady with a small increase or decrease.After 2016,the increase begins to pace up.The second point is that the three biggest indicators that impacted the cultivated land area are population,animal husbandry and total grain output and their correlation values are 0.994 8,0.993 9,and 0.990 8.Besides the total power of agricultural machinery is the minimum impact fact agricultural acreage whose correlation value is 0.682 2.The last one is the driving force factors of that influence are as follows in a descending order: population,animal husbandry,total grain output,grain yield per hectare,rural power consumption,per capita GNP followed by gross output value of farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,GNP,social fixed assets investment and the total power of agricultural machinery.Among them,the relationship between population,gross output value of farming,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,GNP,social fixed assets investment and cultivated land area is positive correlation,while the relationship between other factors and cultivated land area is negative correlation.