基于学习曲线的生物质成型燃料补贴政策研究

通过对中国生物质成型燃料产业的调研与分析,结合该产业的发展轨迹和国家相关的规划目标,构造中国生物质成型燃料的学习曲线,利用该曲线来预测中国固体成型燃料成本的变化趋势。在此基础上,研究如果2020年我国生物质成型燃料利用量要达到5 000万吨的规模,应该如何量化并制定政府的补贴政策。结果表明,若要在2020年实现将生物质成型燃料的商业化并达到5 000万吨的利用量,生物质成型燃料的成本需降低至462元/吨,此时学习系数为0.509,学习率为70.2%。为促使生物质成型燃料的技术进步和产业化发展,需要在2020年以前对该产业进行财政补贴,最大补贴规模为2016年的6亿元,从2012年到2020年的累计补贴为41.24亿元。

Study on Subsidy Policy Based on Learning Curve for Biomass Molding Fuels in China

Through the comprehensive investigation and analysis of the biomass molding fuels ( BMF) industry in China, with combination of the development track and the related targets of the government for this industry, the learning curve for BMF was developed and validated in this study. On the basis of this learning curve, the BMF costs in the future were forecasted, and the formulation of subsidy policy was investigated to achieve the commercialization and utilize the production of 50 million tons BMF in the year of 2020. The results showed that in order to realize the targets, the BMF cost should be lowered to 462 CNY (Chinese Yuan)/ton, at which scenario the learning coefficient is 0. 509 and the learning rate is 70. 2%. For promoting the technological progress, the government should subsidize BMF industry before 2020, the maximal annual subsidy is about 600 million CNY in 2016, and the total subsidy from 2012 to 2020 is about 41. 24 billion CNY.